DFS Alerts
Padres have a 20.5 K-BB% vs RHP and a 32.2 K% over the last week
Walker Buehler appears the relative safe pitching option on a three game slate. He has struck out 27.4% of the batters he’s faced over the last month and has walked just 12 batters all year. His .297 xwOBA (.286 last 30 days) and 35.3% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board. The Diamondbacks have a 90 wRC+ vs RHP with a 14.9 K-BB% that’s the third highest split on the board. Aaron Nola has an even higher 31.9 K% over the last month, but a 10.9 SwStr% gives him just a 2.84 K/SwStr mark that makes one question sustainability. He’s walked at least three in three of his last four and gone more than six innings in just one of his last seven starts, but tonight’s matchup may give him the edge over Buehler, mainly in the Padres’ 20.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Over the last week, they have a team 62 wRC+ and 32.2 K%. Robbie Ray still has the strikeout upside (30%) and has even cut down on his HR rate, but still walks a ton of batters (12.8%) and has to face the Dodgers as the second highest priced pitcher on DraftKings ($9.2K).
Other tagged players: Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray
Capable Power
The Astros own Monday’s highest implied run total as they travel to Seattle to take on Wade LeBlanc and the Mariners bullpen. LeBlanc has struggled mightily this season and has already given up eight HRs in just 28.1 innings pitched. Houston is missing the meat of their order due to injury but still has some capable power in their lineup and as a team have the highest HR upside on the slate.
Other tagged players: Myles Straw, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, Michael Brantley
Ceiling Over Floor
Essentially all projection systems are in agreement that Aaron Nola is Monday’s top pitching option in terms of mean projection. He’s also projected to be Monday’s heaviest owned option by a significant margin (62% DK; 41% FD). However, it’s Robbie Ray and not Aaron Nola, that Derek Carty’s projection system, THE BAT, has projected with the top 99th-percentile outcome of the slate. Via THE BAT, Ray also has a significantly lower floor than Nola. However, in tournaments we’re much more interested in the ceiling than we are the floor which makes Ray the superior tournament option at significantly less ownership (44% DK; 20% FD).
Catching A Top Play
The Phillies travel to San Diego to face the strike throwing Eric Lauer with his 21.3% K, 5.9% BB, 40% fly balls and 43% hard hits to right-handed batters. Knowing we’re going to get pitches in the strike zone, we can focus on the Phillies lefties who hit the ball hard with line drive ability. J.T. Realmuto would be a top option on this slate even if he played an easier position to fill. With a .204 ISO on 25% line drives and 41% hard hits against lefties, he is a standout option on sites where we need a catcher in the lineup.
Leading Off The Scoring
The Phillies travel to San Diego to face the strike throwing Eric Lauer with his 21.3% K, 5.9% BB, 40% fly balls and 43% hard hits to right-handed batters. Knowing we’re going to get pitches in the strike zone, we can focus on the Phillies lefties who hit the ball hard with line drive ability. Since the start of 2018, Andrew McCuthen has a 27.5% line drive rate with 41% hard hits and an 80% contact rate against left-handed pitching. He is a prime play on all sites, notably at his salary on FD and Yahoo.
These Guys Are Too Cheap
The Dodgers right-handed bats of Enrique Hernandez, David Freese and Chris Taylor are just too cheap across the industry on this slate. I never love picking on Robbie Ray with individual batters, but the on-base and power upside is high with all the Dodgers righties. Hernandez is my first choice of the group with his better contact skills (81% contact vs LHP 2018-2019) and lower pinch hit risk once we get into the bullpen.
Elite Skills Across The Board
The Astros are missing most of their top right-handed bats, but the one left standing is the best of the bunch in Alex Bregman. He faces an average at best lefty in Wade LeBlanc, backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. So far this season, Bregman has a .241 ISO against lefties with a huge 56% fly ball rate and 49% hard hits and he has elite plate skills against both righties and lefties. He would be my top play on the board even on a full slate.
Top Play On Any Slate
We are going to need to be concerned with ownership on a three-game slate, but Aaron Nola will be a tough fade in any format tonight. He has turned his strikeout rate around and is right back to the same 27% mark that we saw in 2018. His walks are still up a little, but with his long history of strong control, I expect that to join the party soon as well. Besides the solid skills, we’ve got a great matchup for a right-handed pitcher against a high strikeout Padres team.
High Contact Potential
Yulieski Gurriel is a great value play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft tonight. I’m going to be picking on LeBlanc as much as I can on this smaller slate. He has a .408 wOBA with a .278 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. Gurriel has a 10.3% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters since the start of 2018. He has really good contact skills, and at this price, I really like his floor/upside in this matchup.
Stolen Base Upside
Myles Straw doesn’t project to be a big-time power hitter, but he’s been a very good contact hitter in the Minors. He also has a lot of speed, which adds to his upside/floor at this cheap price tag. Wade LeBlanc has a 17.2% strikeout rate this season, but only a 13.5% strikeout rate against righties. With his high contact rate allowed, and Straw’s contact skills, I like his chance to get on base in this matchup.
Dominic Smith (thumb) scratched Sunday; Aaron Altherr replaces
Smith has been scratched from the New York Mets original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to a sore right thumb. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Aaron Altherr, who will now play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Mets order but, most notably, bumps J.D. Davis all the way up to the two-hole. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as New York faces off against right-hander Merrill Kelly on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Justin Toscano via Twitter Other tagged players: Aaron Altherr
Good Righty Versus Right-Handed Heavy Lineup
It’s come to the point where we’re just streaming pitchers against this bad Tigers lineup, and now it’s Julio Teheran’s turn. The Tigers have been awful against right-handed pitching this season, with a team 26.4 K%, 3rd highest in the Majors. Teheran has always had wide splits where he struggles against lefties, and that has continued in 2019. This season, he’s allowing a .306 wOBA to lefties compared to just a .275 wOBA to righties. The good news for Teheran is that the Tigers are predominantly right-handed outside of possibly Niko Goodrum, Christin Stewart and Jeimer Candelario. Goodrum has been red-hot in this #hometown series for him, and Stewart does have pop, but if there’s ever a matchup ideal for Teheran to succeed in, it’s this one. I am comfortable enough with Teheran in this spot as an SP2 in all formats.
Zach Plesac is a nice value arm on main slate
Plesac will get a solid match-up with the White Sox Sunday afternoon at Guaranteed Rate Field. Plesac had a 0.96 ERA / 2.87 xFIP and 20.4 % K-BB over 37 innings in AA and a 1.69 ERA / 3.83 xFIP with a 27.6 % K-BB over 20 innings in AAA this year before being called up to the Indians. He showed a promising fastball that averaged 94 MPH in his first start, but will need to generate more swings and misses as he had just a 7% SwStr and a 10% K rate. The White Sox have just a 92 wRC+ with an ugly 26.4% K rate on the year vs. RHP. They’ve also been one of the coldest offenses in the league with a 27th ranked .302 xwOBA over the past 10 days. With Yoan Moncada out of the order, they will have just 3 batters in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .320 vs. RHP in 2019. Plesac will have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly umpire in CB Bucknor and doesn’t need to do anything crazy to hit value today at just $5.9k on Fanduel and $5k on Draftkings.
Cheap Leadoff Hitter With Platoon Advantage
I like this spot a lot for Harrison Bader. It’s not ideal he’s going up against Cole Hamels, but Bader is cheap, hitting leadoff, and will hold the platoon-advantage. This season, Bader has a .376 wOBA against left-handed pitching, which ranks among the best on the Cardinals. I am more than fine using Bader in cash and he’s also a fine GPP target.
Gerrit Cole has been nearly un-hittable, gets good matchup with A’s this afternoon
Gerrit Cole is expensive ($11.7k on DK, $11.3k on FD) but he is worth the price as by far the best pitcher on the afternoon slate in pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. Cole has a 4.02 ERA but a 2.27 xFIP and 2.57 SIERA with a ridiculous 39% K rate and just a 6.3% BB rate. Cole has an even better 2.04 xFIP and 1.57 SIERA with a 41% K rate and 3% BB rate over the past 30 days. Statcast also likes him as he has a .264 xwOBA allowed and 7% barrel rate. The Athletics have been slightly below average with a 94 wRC+ vs. RHP this year and 20.1% K rate. They have just 2 batters in their lineup with an xwOBA greater than .335 vs. RHP on the year. Cole will have to deal with a very hitter-friendly umpire in Alan Porter, but given how he has pitched throughout the year it shouldn’t slow him down much at all. The A’s currently have a 3.5 implied total vs. Cole and the ‘Stros.