DFS Alerts
Pitcher Making His MLB Debut Against Power-Hitting Lineup Tonight
Devin Smeltzer is expected to make his MLB debut for the Twins tonight against Milwaukee, and while the young left-hander’s AAA numbers look good this season with a 1.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, he still had issues last season in AA with a 4.73 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He also has to face a power-hitting Brewers team tonight that ranks 11th in the league in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. Christian Yelich is in play despite not having the platoon advantage, and I will be targeting Brewers right-handers such as Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, and Jesus Aguilar.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar
Targeting Power Hitters Against Pitcher With HR Difficulties
Like the slate in general, the Angels are thin on pitching tonight and are expected to call up Nick Tropeano to start tonight’s game against Oakland. Tropeano had a rough time in AAA this season, allowing a 7.66 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, and had trouble keeping the ball in the park in the majors last year with 16 HRs allowed in only 76 MLB innings. I’m targeting the power hitters in the Oakland lineup tonight, particularly Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Stephen Piscotty.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty Cheaper Pitcher Could Pay Off As Favorite In Plus Matchup
We have relatively slim options at pitcher tonight considering the number of games, so matchup becomes an important consideration. Trevor Richards is facing a Giants team that ranks 10th in K% and 28th in wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitching this seasosn, and the Marlins are slight favorites playing at home tonight. Richards has been fairly average this season with a 4.14 ERA (5.05 SIERA) and 21.2 K%, but he is underpriced for the matchup and allows us to fit more expensive bats into our GPP lineups on the slate.
Merrill Kelly (6.73 DRA) and Antonio Senzatela (46.8% 95+ mph EV) should get mashed at Coors
Poor weather might be a reason to over-think things and attempt to fade Coors tonight, but Kevin mentions in his forecast that there hasn’t been a negative effect towards run scoring under these conditions and both of these pitchers are ripe for the pickings. Merrill Kelly has an 11.9 K% over the last month with a board worst .430 xwOBA. For the season, he has a 41.7 Z-O-Swing% and 6.73 DRA. Antonio Senzatela has allowed seven and eight runs to the Giants and Pirates over his last four starts and has just a 14.4 K% with a board high 46.8% 95+ mph EV for the season. These are two pitchers who may be hit hard under any weather conditions outside a tornado at Coors. This should remain a productive venue for offense tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA within two points of .380 against Kelly this season. Trevor Story (128 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Nolan Arenado (107 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Daniel Murphy (111 wRC+, .184 ISO) are all above a 150 wRC+ over the last week. David Dahl (111 wRC+, .253 ISO) just misses that mark (139). Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .330 xwOBA against Senzatela over the last 12 months as well. The Diamondbacks are currently missing a few key bats, but that means they’ll be able to surround Eduardo Escobar (121 wRC+, .259 ISO) with some more affordable bats tonight.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy, Antonio Senzatela, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Escobar
Despite injuries, Houston still has some bats against struggling Lester (12 runs last two starts)
Jon Lester has allowed 12 runs (nine earned) over his last two starts and while his peripherals had been improving most recently, prior to these two starts, it wasn’t hard to see some regression coming. His strikeout rate (23.3%) remains above league average despite an 8.2 SwStr% and just 7.5% over the last month. He’s still sitting on a 2.68 ERA despite a 3.92 SIERA, 4.42 DRA and .364 xwOBA. Some of this basically comes down to unearned runs (six of his 20 allowed this year), while he’s actually been getting hit pretty hard too (89.2 mph aEV). His 11.0% Barrels/BBE is the third highest mark on the board. The Astros generally feast on LHP. That may not be so pronounced with Springer and Altuve out, but there are still some dangerous bats in this lineup. It starts with Alex Bregman (163 wRC+, .268 ISO), but among those in the projected lineup who have more than a few days of big league experience, none of the RHBs are below a 120 wRC+ or .178 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. The more interesting thing is that Lester has actually been much worse against LHBs over this time span (.386 wOBA vs .309) and this is actually confirmed by a 52 point separation by xwOBA too. For the Astros, Josh Reddick (145 wRC+, .235 ISO) has hit LHP well over the last 12 months. Those certainly aren’t his true talent numbers, but they’re worth something. Michael Brantley has not (79 wRC+, .069). Jack Mayfield and Garrett Stubbs are new arrivals that add minimum price tag value to Houston stacks.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Garrett Stubbs, Jack Mayfield, Jon Lester It's What Else You Can Fit With Him
Assuming that Jack Mayfield is in the lineup tonight, he is one of the top value options on this slate. He’s minimum salary across the industry. In 41 games in AAA this season, he has a .289 ISO with a .385 wOBA and a 123 wRC+. He has a very low strikeout rate but hasn’t projected to be a top prospect. Lester has been a lot better this season, but his xFIP and SIERA suggest he’s still getting a little lucky on that 2.68 ERA. Mayfield is so cheap that the matchup doesn’t matter as much to me, and I’m just playing him for what I can play around him.
Ryan Yarbrough had a 35.7 K% at AAA and 16.2 SwStr% in return to majors
Ryan Yarbrough threw 7.1 innings of two run ball in Cleveland in his return to the majors, striking out just four of 27 batters after a 35.7 K% in a 21 inning AAA stint. The caveat here is that he did have a 16.2 SwStr% in that game in Cleveland and an 11.4% rate overall despite just an 18.4 K% on the season. His 81.6 mph aEV is lowest on the board as well. So Yarbrough is missing bats, generating tons of soft contact, has a 5.1 BB% and 10.5 HR/FB, while pitching in a negative run environment. What’s the problem? For one, a 4.28 SIERA only looks at actual strikeouts, not swinging strikes. That’s still 2.1 runs below his actual ERA though. His .311 xwOBA is similarly around league average, while the 5.24 DRA is quite a bit higher and takes into account opposition and park. The other ridiculous factor in that high ERA is a 46.2 LOB%. There are normally some workload concerns here, but as the Rays showed last time out, if Yarbrough pitches effectively, they’ll let him go. The Jays are a great matchup for him here. They have a 71 wRC+, 18.5 K-BB% and 9.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year. At just $6K on FanDuel Yarbrough is a bargain, though he probably can’t get credit for a quality start unless he actually starts. He may even be a decent value at $8.3K on DraftKings as well if he can get another six innings in.
No Clear Choice Up Top
This slate is heavily slanted towards the bats tonight, but there are enough values that it won’t be much trouble to pay up for a pitcher. It’s a close race between Matt Boyd and Stephen Strasburg for the best skills this season, but with Strasburg going into Atlanta, I much prefer the matchup for Boyd against the Orioles. There is some power risk in this ballpark with his fly balls, but his strong control, just 5.2% walks along with his 29.6% strikeouts more than offsets the power risk for me. I’ll start with Boyd in cash games tonight and look to use him in tournaments as well.
Makes Sense On Two Pitcher Sites
This price range has some really solid upside tonight, but I think Marco Gonzales has the highest floor facing Texas in Seattle. I really like the Seattle bats in this game, and I think Gonzales is going to be pitching with a lead. He should attack hitters and could pitch deep into this game. The Rangers rank 22nd in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and they have a 28.8% strikeout rate with an 80 wRC+. They still have some power against lefties, but a lot of that power is from the lefties. Gonzales has a .289 wOBA with a .051 ISO against left-handed hitters this season.
Savings In The Middle
There is a lot of high end offense to spend up on tonight, and luckily, we have some good salary saving options that can make it all work. The Astros Jack Mayfield is minimum salary on most sites, and should be in the lineup for Houston tonight, hopefully with a decent lineup spot. He’s not a prospect at 28-years old, but he’s a guy with solid contact skills and a fly ball lean that should translate well to the majors. He was batting .283 on just 15.7% K with 47% fly balls in his first 41 games at Triple-A this season. Jon Lester is basically an average pitcher at this point in his career, and if the minor league numbers even partially carry over, Mayfield is much better than a minimum salary bat.
Matt Boyd (24.4 K-BB%) is facing a Baltimore offense with a 20.1 K-BB% vs LHP
Much like in Philadelphia, conditions in Baltimore are expected to favor LH power with wind blowing out to RF at 10 mph. While this would have a negative effect on the launching pad that is Dylan Bundy if the Tigers had much LH or overall power to worry about (71 wRC+, 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP), Matt Boyd shouldn’t have too much trouble here. He has a 24.4 K-BB% and 10 HR/FB on the season, while his estimators all match his ERA right around three and go along with a .282 xwOBA. The Orioles have an 89 wRC+ and 20.1 K-BB% vs LHP. They have just one batter on the current active roster above a .200 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year (Renato Nunez .224). There’s also a favorable pitching situation for Boyd here. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel tonight ($10.2K), but is fourth costliest on DraftKings at $100 more. At least two of the pitchers at higher price tags are in much lower upside spots. This is a strong matchup for him, where tough conditions in a power friendly park shouldn’t scare players off.
Other tagged players: Dylan Bundy Perfect Spot On Paper
Dylan Bundy has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a .387 wOBA with a .356 ISO against righties in 117 PAs in 2019. He does have some really high upside and that’s what I’m looking for in tournaments tonight. He has a 29.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. There should be seven right-handed hitters in this lineup tonight. The projected starting lineup has a 27.2% strikeout rate with a .150 ISO and a .296 wOBA against right-handed hitters this season. This is a great matchup on paper, and I really hope he takes advantage of it tonight.
Not Stopping Now
Bryce Harper has not lived up to the expectations of Phillies fans, hitting just .227 so far this season. However, on DK/FDRFT, his salary has fallen too far, especially given a matchup with a low strikeout pitcher in Adam Wainwright. His only real issue has been strikeouts, and Wainwright has struck out just 14 of 105 lefties faced this season. Harper is still taking walks and still hitting the ball hard 43% of the time. Without the strikeout ability from Wainwright, Harper’s upside is underpriced here.
Positive Regression Is Your Friend
Daniel Murphy is batting just .221 this season with a .292 OBP. So why is he a Core Play? First, he’s in Coors Field. Second, he’s facing a pitcher in Merrill Kelly who is striking out just 16.2% of left-handed batters. But, mostly, it’s good old fashioned regression, the positive kind. Against right-handed pitching in the early going this season, Murphy has struck out just 11.7% of the time, while hitting 52% fly balls on 41% hard hits. He has suffered from a ridiculously low .172 BABIP on those hard hits. All the fly balls may keep his BABIP on the low side, but nowhere near this level. Hard hit balls in the air is what we want at Coors Field, and Murphy gives us that.
Fly Balls With Very Little Soft Contact
I don’t tend to play a lot of Marlins, but Curtis Granderson makes a lot of sense on FanDuel today. He should hit lead off and he’s $2,200 on FanDuel. Samardzija has not been able to generate any soft contact against left-handed hitters this season. He has a 2.8% soft contact rate with a 54.2% fly ball rate and a .250 ISO. Granderson is still a massive fly ball hitter. He has a .202 ISO with a 15.4% soft contact rate against right-handed pitching. There should be a lot of good contact in this spot, and he should get two to three at bats against him.