DFS Alerts
Load Em Up Here
There is a lot of good offense on this slate, with enough value plays that we’re going to be able to afford a couple big spends. I see no reason to overthink it with the Rockies at home tonight against Merrill Kelly. Through 10 starts this season, Kelly has struck out just 17.5% of righties while allowing a .225 ISO on 43% fly balls and 38.5% hard hits. The lack of strikeouts and ground balls is not going to play well in the altitude, and Trevor Story is the standout at shortstop tonight with his .268 ISO on 45% hard hits against right-handed pitching.
Conditions appear to favor LH power in Philly (wind out to RF)
There is some concern about conditions in Philadelphia, but barring a PPD, those conditions seem to be favorable for left-handed power hitters (winds out to RF at 10 mph). Adam Wainwright has walked nine of his last 46 batters, has just a 6.5 SwStr% and 90.3 Z-Contact% on the season and his ERA with all of his estimators are within a quarter run of five. He has a 17.4 HR/FB and LHBs have a .363 wOBA with a 39.8 Hard% against him over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (122 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has gone cold again, but his 24 wRC+ over the last week comes with a 46.7 Hard%. Making hard contact is not a problem for him. Making contact is, but this could be a good matchup with him considering Wainwright’s inability to miss bats at this point in his career.
Nick Pivetta frustrated the Phillies enough to send him down after four starts (at least three runs in no more than five innings in all four) with just a 17.2 K%. He doubled that (33.1%) in six AAA starts (though he walked 13.3% too). Pivetta also allowed five HRs in those four starts and 54 in 315.1 big league innings in his career. His split numbers haven’t been very consistent, but over the last calendar year, LHBs have torched him for a .383 wOBA. Matt Carpenter (137 wRC+, .253 ISO) has a 221 wRC+ over the last week, as the Cardinals have dropped him in the order. Unfortunately, he’s the only LHB on the roster above a .165 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months. Kolten Wong (115 wRC+, .164 ISO) is next best.
Jacob deGrom's 15.2 SwStr% last 30 days suggests better than results appear
Jacob deGrom did throw a clunker in Miami two starts back, but has otherwise allowed a total of four runs in 27 innings in the remainder of his last five starts. While the strikeout rate is down to 25.8% over the last month, his 15.2 SwStr% over that span is actually slightly higher than his season rate (15%). In other words, he has a 23.9 K-BB% and should be fine from that standpoint. One concern a few starts back was a Barrels/BBE rate that reached 10%, but that seems to have remedied itself as well, as he’s now down to 6.8% despite allowing a HR in each of his last two games. In fact, despite a 3.75 ERA and 3.70 FIP over the last month, deGrom has generated a .255 xwOBA. His 2.59 DRA this season is not only best on tonight’s short board, but better than any other starter for the entire day. While deGrom transitions from one pitcher’s park to another, the main concern should be a Dodger offense with a 118 wRC+ and 8.9 K-BB% vs RHP and a 17.8 HR/FB at home. However, costing $400 less than Clayton Kershaw, on DraftKings (though $300 more on FanDuel), deGrom probably has more upside at this point and may be the better value.
Mitch Keller (#37 MLB prospect via Fangraphs) makes his debut in Cincinnati
Mitch Keller makes his debut for the Pirates in the back half of their double-header in Cincinnati. He is the team’s second ranked prospect and 37th in all of baseball (Fangraphs) with a 55 Future Value grade. His fastball and curveball are already believed to be above average major league pitches, while his changeup and overall command may still need a bit of work. He’s struck out 27.6% of batters in nine AAA starts this season, while walking 9.9%. Interestingly, his ground ball rate was below 40% in 99.1 AAA innings (2018 & 19) after being above 50% in 86 AA innings. A fly ball lean will likely be fine in Pittsburgh, but could be an issue in Cincinnati tonight, although he has generated popups at an above average rate at every level. Against a projected lineup that has a 23 K% vs RHP this season, Keller is certainly a viable SP2 on DraftKings at the very least for $5.9K.
Jonathan Lucroy (illness) scratched Monday; Dustin Garneau replaces
Lucroy has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a stomach virus. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Dustin Garneau, who will now handle the catching duties and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps David Fletcher up to sixth, while Luis Rengifo slides down to the ninth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Angels lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Chris Bassitt on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Maria Torres via Twitter Other tagged players: Dustin Garneau
Low Cost Stack
The Cleveland @ Boston game is not available on FanDuel’s early slate but I love the idea of targeting low owned Cleveland hitters on DraftKings. The Indians get a boost in park playing in Fenway and are extremely low-priced despite what is mostly a neutral matchup against Porcello. Perhaps what makes me most interested in stacking Cleveland hitters is that you can do so while paying up at both starting pitcher spots.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Leonys Martin, Jakob Bauers
League Leader in Barrels
With first base being a watered down position it’s likely we see ownership concentrated on Joey Votto and Matt Adams in cash games and tournaments. That ownership concentration has me interested in looking elsewhere at the position as a way to differentiate. Enter Jose Abreu who leads the league with 30 Barrels this season and has a tremendous power matchup at home against Homer Bailey.
Low Ownership, Good Lineup
Gerrit Cole is an elite tournament option for Monday’s main slate. Max Scherzer’s ownership is expected to be massive as we currently have him projected at 47% owned on DraftKings while Cole is projected to be just 19% owned. A matchup against the Cubs isn’t favorable for Cole BUT he does get the benefit of a watered down Chicago lineup that doesn’t have Kris Bryant or Jason Heyward in it. The absence of both means a much better strikeout matchup for Cole as the Cubs lineup has six hitters in it with strikeout rates north of 21% since the start of the 2018 season.
A Loaded Outfield
The Red Sox are a prime target this afternoon against Jefry Rodriguez and the Indians. Mookie Betts would be the first choice here, and J.D. Martinez is always in play, but we can save a little more salary with Andrew Benintendi while attacking the splits of Rodriguez. Since the start of last season, Rodriguez has more walks than strikeouts against left-handed batters while allowing 44% fly balls, all of which lines up well for the skill set of Benintendi. He can hit for power against fly ball pitchers and has big on base and run scoring upside from the top of this lineup.
Savings Abound Here
The Tigers and Orioles are not two of the most exciting teams in the league, but playing in Baltimore with shaky starters backed by bad bullpens, this is a useful game to find some salary savers on both sides. Niko Goodrum leads off the action at a fair salary on all sites, with the switch hitting ability adding to his likeability. Against righties, he has hit 27% line drives this season which implies more upside is on the way.
Don't Overthink It
Max Scherzer’s worst start of the season came in Miami against this Marlins team in April, when he allowed six runs in five innings. However, that game came with nine strikeouts and no walks with a .588 BABIP against. With the Marlins horrendous numbers against right-handed pitching and Scherzer’s dominant 37.6% K rate against RHB, it’s much more likely that the strikeouts show up again than it is that he suffers another worst case scenario BABIP game. There are a couple other high upside pitchers on this slate with Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo, but the matchup for Scherzer is far better, making him the clear top ace today.
Affordable Pieces Throughout The Lineup
The Reds come in with the highest team total on the early slate at home against Nick Kingham. Kingham has been awful against lefties early in his career with a .323 ISO allowed on just 14.8% K with 10.3% BB and 41% fly balls. On most sites, Derek Dietrich has been priced up for his hot start to the season with 13 home runs in 49 games, but on FD, he’s sitting at a way too cheap $2,700, making him a core play in all formats with his .429 ISO and .429 wOBA against righties.
Affordable Pieces Throughout The Lineup
The Reds come in with the highest team total on the early slate at home against Nick Kingham. Kingham has been awful against lefties early in his career with a .323 ISO allowed on just 14.8% K with 10.3% BB and 41% fly balls. Jesse Winker leads the Reds this season against righties with a 48.5% hard hit rate and has a .273 ISO and .357 wOBA despite a low .234 BABIP. There is positive regression on the way here.
Still Very Affordable
Kipnis checks in as a solid value at a thin second base position today. This is a position where I will absolutely be looking to save salary this afternoon, and he’s facing a pitcher in Rick Porcello that allows plenty of contact and doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. While the numbers have lagged for Kipnis in 2019, he has hits in ten of his last twelve games, and he’s still hitting in the middle of the order for the Indians. Fire him up as a nice value this afternoon.
Dirt Cheap on FanDuel
He’s not a stud by any means, but today is a day where we need some salary relief in order to fit in elite pitching. That’s the primary appeal for Matt Adams, who is nearly minimum salary on FanDuel. He also draws a favorable matchup against Jose Urena, a pitcher who has always struggled more against lefty bats. For his career, his ground ball rate is 9% lower against lefties, and he allows hard contact at a 36% clip. Go cheap here and hope Adams can get a hold of one — his ISO is around .230 over the last three seasons.