DFS Alerts
Start of STL-PHI will be delayed due to inclement weather Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Phillies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Aaron Nola not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, these storms are of the severe variety and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation if the field conditions deteriorate.
As reported by: the Philadelphia Phillies via Twitter
Blake Snell leads the board in K%, SwStr%, xwOBA, 95+ mph EV, SIERA, DRA, Z-Contact%
Blake Snell’s 18.7 SwStr% is nearly a league average strikeout rate itself. His 36.5 K% easily leads the slate, as does a 77.5 Z-Contact%, .242 xwOBA, 28.3% 95+ mph EV, 2.81 SIERA, and 2.77 DRA. He struck out nine of the 19 Blue Jays he faced in April. The Toronto offense has an abysmal 70 wRC+, 17.9 K-BB% and 9.2 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Snell costs over $11K on a board where only one other pitcher is above $10K on either site (Walker Buehler on FD), but is easily the top pitcher on the mound tonight. On DraftKings, a pairing with Pablo Lopez only costs $17.9 K. The one drawback might be that Snell has only faced more than 23 batters in one start since his first, but that was his last time out, in which he threw more than 100 pitches. It’s likely that the Rays have just been easing him back from an injury, but now seem ready to let him dominate deeper into games.
Pablo Lopez (16.4 K-BB%) has allowed five runs over four home starts
Pablo Lopez has only exceeded 21 BF in one of his last four starts and gone less than four innings in two of his last three, but has been a marginally effective pitcher this year with a 16.4 K-BB%. He has allowed at least four ERs in less than six innings in half of his 10 starts, but more than that only once (10 against the Mets) with all five of those poor starts coming on the road. In fact, he’s allowed just five ERs in four home starts. His 5.40 ERA this season is well above his 3.95 SIERA and even further beyond an impressive 3.31 DRA and .304 xwOBA. Not only does he get to pitch at home tonight, he also gets to face the Giants (77 wRC+, 24 K% vs RHP), who have a team 69 wRC+ and 6.3 HR/FB over the last week. Their power prospects are unlikely to improve in this spacious park. Lopez’s stark home/road splits help daily fantasy players here by keeping his price down. At $7.6K on FanDuel and a full $1K less on DraftKings, he may be the top value on the board.
Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .400 wOBA vs Ryan Carpenter
We got to see the rare pitching duel between the Tigers and Orioles in Baltimore last night, but a repeat performance shouldn’t be expected on Wednesday. Ryan Carpenter has just an 8.0 SwStr% over three starts with 49% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, resulting in a 27.8 HR/FB so far. While neither that or his 9.00 ERA are likely sustainable, a 4.66 SIERA is his lowest estimator, while sitting on a .356 xwOBA. Carpenter’s career is still a very small sample, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .400 wOBA against him. Hanser Alberto (172 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Renato Nunez (115 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the only batters in the Baltimore projected lineup above average against LHP over the last calendar year, but Carpenter seems to make most hitters above average against him.
John Means showed some potential in early starts for the O’s, but has just a 12.8 K% and 6.9 SwStr% over his last five with a 5.58 SIERA and .357 xwOBA. RHBs have a career .324 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) against him. He’ll have to face a few more slightly potent bats against LHP, including Miguel Cabrera (165 wRC+, .147 ISO, 50 Hard%), Nick Castellanos (165 wRC+, .213 ISO, 50.5 Hard%) and Ronny Rodriguez (107 wRC+, .227 ISO). Both teams are within a quarter of a run of five implied runs on Wednesday night, but neither is among the top three or four projected offenses tonight.
Savings at SP2
There is enough good pitching tonight to consider paying up for two, but in order to fit in the high end bats we’re going to need to save some salary somewhere. Pablo Lopez gets a friendly matchup at home against a Giants team that ranks 28th in ISO against righties. Lopez has a couple disaster starts on the road that have made his ERA look unsightly at 5.40, but all the underlying numbers are solid. He has struck out 26.6% of right-handed batters while piling up 53% ground balls to lefties. He has solid control which will make it tough for the light hitting Giants to cobble together big innings against him.
Home Run Hunting
The Tigers-Orioles game features two fly ball lefties and two bad bullpens in a hitter friendly ballpark. Baltimore’s John Means has struck out just 15.5% of righties this season while allowing 42% fly balls. Nick Castellanos hits the ball hard with a line drive lean that will play well against the fly ball pitching Means. He maintains his power against righties when the Orioles get into their weak bullpen.
Top Of The Charts
The Coors Field stands alone at the top of the list tonight for offense, and the Arizona side will be my first look facing a low strikeout pitcher in Jeff Hoffman. For his career, Hoffman has struck out just 15.2% of left-handed batters, and Ketel Marte has a big 47% hard hit rate with a .205 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He and teammate Eduardo Escobar are both switch hitters, which keeps them with a platoon advantage when Colorado gets into the bullpen.
The Best Out Of A Good Group
we’ve got a solid pitching slate tonight, but even with names like Nola, Syndergaard, Buehler and Bumgarner, Blake Snell is all alone at the top of the heap. His 36.5% K rate is the 2nd highest in the league and easily the highest on tonight’s slate and his 2.81 SIERA is also the lowest by a wide margin. On top of just being the most talented pitcher on the slate, he has a favorable matchup at home against a Toronto team that ranks 28th in wOBA and 22nd in ISO with the 8th highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties.
Start of PIT-CIN will be delayed due to rain Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Anthony DeSclafani not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through upon the conclusion of a likely long initial delay.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon via Twitter High Upside Stack In a Great Spot
The Diamondbacks are in a fantastic spot tonight playing in Coors Field against Jeff Hoffman, who very clearly is not a major league caliber pitcher at this point. His ERA in 150 MLB innings is over six, and he had a 7.57 ERA at the minor league level this year before being called up. Escobar is my top hitter from this squad. He doesn’t get the respect he deserves despite overall numbers that are impressive across the board with a .290 average, .353 OBP, .380 wOBA, and .271 ISO this season. He can be used as a top option in all formats tonight. A full stack can also be employed with the likes of Marte, Dyson, and even the power of Christian Walker assuming he sticks in the starting nine.
Other tagged players: Jarrod Dyson, Ketel Marte
Better Than Most People Think
Pablo Lopez is not a gas can of an arm. Sure, his 5.40 ERA looks ugly on the surface, but he has a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00 to go along with a respectable overall profile. His strikeouts are right around league average, and he doesn’t walk a ton of hitters. His ground ball rate is over 50% for his MLB career. This is a fine matchup against a mediocre Giants offense. If you need an affordable arm in order to fit some Coors Field bats this evening, Lopez is a great option.
Top Option on the Board
His 3.07 ERA for the season seems much more impressive when you consider that he had one outing where he gave up seven earned runs and one outing where he gave up five. He has otherwise been dominant all season long, with a 36.5% strikeout rate that puts him in the mix with Gerrit Cole at the top of the league. That is accompanied by a great batted ball profile (23% soft contact, 28% hard contact) and an xFIP of 2.58. Snell is clearly the safest option on tonight’s slate, especially when you consider his matchup against an inconsistent Toronto offense.
Taking Advantage of a Rookie Pitcher
Over his nine appearances at the Triple-A level this season, Cardinals rookie Genesis Cabrera has posted a 6.35 ERA, a 6.85 FIP, and a 6.35 xFIP with average strikeouts and a walk rate over 10%. We know that mediocre prospects often struggle in their major league debuts, and there’s little reason to expect success out of the gate with Cabrera. The RHBs for the Phillies are in a fine spot here, with guys like Hoskins and McCutchen checking in as elite plays. Given the risk for a rookie starter, the entire offense is fully stackable in GPPs and will likely go under-owned.
Start of STL-PHI will be delayed due to rain Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Phillies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Nick Pivetta not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, radar trends aren’t looking promising and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation.
As reported by: Meghan Montemurro via Twitter Tony Wolters (hand) scratched Tuesday; Chris Iannetta replaces
Wolters has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to a right-hand contusion. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Iannetta, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Wolters’ vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rockies lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Merrill Kelly at home this evening.
As reported by: Taylor McGregor via Twitter Other tagged players: Chris Iannetta