DFS Alerts
Nothing Sexy, But Solid Value
There’s nothing significantly special about Nicky Lopez, but he has plenty of value at his current DFS price tag. He should be a very solid on base guy for the Royals moving forward, he’s hitting in the middle of the order, and he has some speed. That combination of on base potential, run scoring ability, stolen base ability, and potential RBI chances gives Lopez plenty of opportunity to put up DFS points. With his price tag still at a great value, I’m happy to buy in against a rookie starter.
Nice Combination of Safety and Upside
This is a wide open slate for bats, but I’m ready to jump right back into the mix with Trea Turner. The Washington speedster was activated from the disabled list yesterday and prompty logged two hits and a stolen base. His price tag is not at a massive premium right now, and tonight’s matchup is favorable against Jon Lester with his inability to hold runners and tendency to allow stolen bases. While Lester has been better in that department this year, you know Turner will have a green light special if and when he reaches base. When you throw in Turner’s reasonable power potential, there is a nice combination of safety and upside here.
The Clear Saturday Ace
oday’s slates are just awful from a pitching perspective. Tonight’s slate offers three aces. Madison Bumgarner feels a hair over-priced and Jose Berrios is struggling, so I will opt for Strasburg as my top arm. He does draw a difficult matchup against the Cubs here, but this lineup can be beaten by good pitching. Strasburg has kicked his strikeout rate up to over 32% this year to go along with a career-best 15.3% strikeout rate. His SIERA sits at 3.04 while his xFIP is at a magnificent 2.72. He’s actually been better than his surface numbers show, and he should be the top pitcher on the board tonight.
Start of COL-PHI will be delayed due to rain Friday
The start of the matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies on Friday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Phillies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Cole Irvin and Jon Gray not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through without a hitch upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: the Philadelphia Phillies via Twitter
Niko Goodrum (illness) scratched Friday; Gordon Beckham replaces
Goodrum has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Gordon Beckham, who will now play shortstop and slot directly into Goodrum’s vacated leadoff spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Frankie Montas at home this evening.
As reported by: Evan Woodbery via Twitter Other tagged players: Gordon Beckham Luke Maile scratched Friday; Danny Jansen replaces
Maile has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Danny Jansen, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Maile’s vacated ninth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Ivan Nova on the road this evening.
As reported by: the Toronto Blue Jays via Twitter Other tagged players: Danny Jansen Hamels a Contrarian Play vs. Cold Nats’ Lineup
There are more obvious plays on the board, but Cole Hamels is an option tonight that can be had at very low ownership given the matchup and duel with Max Scherzer. Hamels has had a solid year with a 3.08 ERA / 3.79 xFIP, 15.9% K-BB, a .307 xwOBA allowed and a very good 56.5% GB rate. Hamels is posting his best xFIP, K-BB, xwOBA allowed and hard contact rate since 2015. He’ll face a Nationals team that has been ice cold over the last 10 days with just a 29th ranked .278 xwOBA. Of the projected Nationals lineup, only Anthony Rendon has an xwOBA above .315 over the past 10 days. On the season the Nats do have a solid 111 wRC+ vs. LHP, but with a 26.6% K rate. Hamels will have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly umpire in Dan Iassogna. On a slate with very few pitching options, Hamels offers a safer floor than most pitchers with some upside given the Nats’ struggling offense. He’ll be an intriguing dart throw option on tonight’s slate.
Value to be Had in Toronto Lineup
If you’re spending up on pitching tonight, the Blue Jays lineup has some cheap value bats that could help form your lineup. The Blue Jays are in Chicago to face Ivan Nova, who has had a rough year with a 6.29 ERA / 4.64 xFIP / 4.79 SIERA and a 9.5 K-BB%. With a 42.8% GB rate, Nova does a solid job keeping the ball out of the air, but his .343 xwOBA allowed suggests he does give up some loud contact. Nova has been more vulnerable vs. LHB with a .359 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties since 2018 as opposed to a .315 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Justin Smoak ($3.9k on DK, .381 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez ($3.7k, .354), Billy Mckinney ($3.4k, .325), Eric Sogard ($4.4k, .300) and Freddy Galvis ($4k, .279) are left-handed options in the Blue Jays lineup. Vlad Guerrero Jr. won’t have the platoon advantage vs. Nova but is just $4.1k and projects to bat 2nd; he has started to heat up with a .401 xwOBA over the past 10 days, Smoak has been the Jays’ hottest hitter with a .455 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The ‘Jays have a 4.4 implied total vs. Nova and the White Sox tonight.
Other tagged players: Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddy Galvis, Billy McKinney, Eric Sogard, Ivan Nova Cards in Great Spot with Highest Total on the Board
The Cardinals are in Arlington tonight to face the Rangers, who project to use Jose Leclerc as an opener and then likely Adrian Sampson in long relief. Sampson has nothing in his profile that suggests he’s any good; for his career he has a 5.09 ERA / 5.97 xFIP / 5.14 SIERA with an 8.7 K-BB%. In 2019 Sampson has a 47.5% hard contact rate, just a 36.4% GB rate, a .398 xwOBA allowed and a 12.3% barrel rate. Sampson doesn’t figure to last long in this game, and the Rangers terrible bullpen (5.00 xFIP, 7.8 K-BB% in 2019) gives Cardinals batters even more upside. St. Louis has been hot with the 3rd best xwOBA of any team over the past 10 days (.371). Matt Carpenter (129 wRC+, .248 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (138 wRC+, .226 ISO), Paul Dejong (123 wRC+, .209 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (103 wRC+, .172 ISO) and (Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .140 ISO) project to be the top 5 batters for STL, in that order. Jose Martinez has been the Cards’ hottest hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Matt Carpenter (.372) has seen the ball well after a rough start to 2019 and might be the best value in the lineup, projected to hit leadoff at just $4k on Draftkings. The Cardinals have a whopping 6.32 implied total vs. the Rangers in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Adrian Sampson Indians in a Great Spot Tonight Vs. Bundy
Cleveland will face Dylan Bundy at home tonight in what looks to be a great matchup. Bundy has had a rough year so far with a 5.31 ERA / 5.14 xFIP and an ugly 47.8% FB rate. He’s also allowing a career high .336 xwOBA, and his average fastball velocity dipped under 90MPH in his last start (91.6 MPH average in 2018). Bundy has very wide platoon splits (.294 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .359 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2018) and projects to face seven lefties in Cleveland’s order tonight. Francisco Lindor (.370 xwOBA since 2018 vs. RHP), Jose Ramirez (.368), Leonys Martin (.365), Carlos Santana (.343), Jason Kipnis (.340) and Jake Bauers (.314) are all good left-handed options in the Indians’ projected lineup. Carlos Gonzalez (.305) hasn’t hit RHP as well as he used to but projects to hit 4th and is just $3.3k on Draftkings. Jason Kipnis is another bargain, projected to hit 2nd at just $3.3k as well. Francisco Lindor has been the Indians’ hottest hitter with a .402 xwOBA over the past 10 days, Kipnis follows close behind with a .388 mark. The Indians have a 5.19 implied total Friday night.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis, Jakob Bauers, Leonys Martin, Carlos Santana, Dylan Bundy Lefty Power in a Hitter's Park
There is upside all over this slate, but one of the best power matchups we can find are the Dodgers lefties at Anthony Desclafani. Over the past two seasons, Desclafani has allowed a .276 ISO to left-handed batters with 43% fly balls and 43% hard contact. Cody Bellinger would be the first choice, but his salary is tough on this slate, while on FD/Yahoo, Joc Pederson comes at a nice discount with his .320 ISO and .386 wOBA on 46% hard hits against right-handed pitching.
The Pirates have a 65 wRC+, 22.2 K-BB% and 10 HR/FB vs LHP
Joey Lucchesi has just a league average 22.2% strikeout rate and has gone beyond 90 pitches just twice this season, but all of his estimators are below his 4.57 ERA while his 49.6 GB% and 84.4 mph aEV have led to a .290 xwOBA as well. The kicker here is that he costs just $6.2K on FanDuel in a superior matchup. San Diego is already a pitcher friendly park, but conditions and umpiring may additionally be favoring pitchers tonight (premium subscription required). On top of all these positive factors the Pirates have just a 65 wRC+, 22.2 K-BB% and 10 HR/FB vs LHP this year. While Lucchesi won’t go extremely deep into this game, some efficiency against a bad offense might get him through six at a great price.
Both starters in LA have been hit hard (90+ mph aEV, 5+ SIERA and DRA)
This is one instance where players should throw the negative west coast run environment right out the window. It’s Brad Keller (16.9 K%, 5.85 DRA, 5.51 SIERA, 90.6 mph aEV, .370 xwOBA) against Matt Harvey (15.7 K%, 6.42 DRA, 5.09 SIERA, 91 mph aEV, .379 xwOBA). While RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Keller over the last calendar year, that’s not nearly enough to preclude Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in this strong matchup, and LHBs are up to a .352 xwOBA against him over the same time span. Tommy La Stella (138 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (168 wRC+, .317 ISO) are strong plays in the top half of this projected lineup. Over the same 12 months, Harvey has been ripped by LHBs to the tune of a .343 wOBA and xwOBA with a 46% hard hit rate. Adalberto Mondesi (111 wRC+, .220 ISO), Alex Gordon (109 wRC+, .185 ISO) and rookie Nicky Lopez (243 wRC+, .377 xwOBA last seven days) can be featured from the Kansas City projected lineup. Lopez costs just $3.3 on DraftKings ($2.6K on FanDuel).
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Tommy La Stella, Brad Keller, Adalberto Mondesi, Matt Harvey, Alex Gordon, Nicky Lopez LHBs have a 21.9 GB% and 46.7 Hard% against Jeff Samardzija over the last 12 months
A big park in San Francisco has been able to hide some of Jeff Samardzija’s flaws, but his 5.50 DRA is two runs above his 3.51 ERA (.239 BABIP, 80.7 LOB%). His 89.1 mph aEV may be more of an issue outside in a more neutral environment like Arizona. His 34.1 Hard-Soft% is worst on the board, while he’s had some serious problems with LHBs over the last calendar year (.340 xwOBA, 46.7 Hard%, 21.9 GB%). That’s nearly 80% of his contact in the air as either a line drive or fly ball with nearly half of it of the hard hit variety. Those are some pretty enticing numbers against a guy with a single digit SwStr rate (9.2%) this year. While the Arizona lineup may feature several LHBs, there are only two that we can call above average hitters. Those are Eduardo Escobar (119 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and David Peralta (149 wRC+, .249 ISO, 50.8 Hard%). While neither is very cheap, they should be worth their cost in a lineup implied for nearly five runs tonight (4.9) and is just inside the top third of teams on the board.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Jeff Samardzija Underpriced, Good Home Matchup
Lucchesi’s price tag immediately jumps out on FanDuel where he’s a mere $6,200 and just four pitchers (two starters) are cheaper. Lucchesi gets a prime home matchup against a Pirates team that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers this season. Despite his obvious mispricing on FD, Lucchesi makes for a better tournament option. While he doesn’t come at as big of a discount on DraftKings, Luchessi can be considered a secondary cash option at SP2.
