DFS Alerts
Above Average Hitter, Above Average Context
Calhoun has not disappointed since being called up to the Big League squad as he’s hit two HRs and has six total hits in his two games for the Rangers this season. Calhoun should hit second again for the Rangers in Arlington on Friday night and will get to square off against Miles Mikolas who has struggled to miss bats this season. Willie projects as an above average hitter and isn’t priced like one yet, especially on FanDuel where he’s a mere $2,100.
Frankie Montas supports a 2.78 ERA with a 3.29 DRA and .299 xwOBA; Tigers 26.3 K% vs RHP
Frankie Montas has not allowed more than three ERs in a start this season (though Boston smacked him around for six unearned) and only twice has he even allowed that many. Bumping up his strikeout rate to league average (22%) with just a 5.8 BB%. The split finger (.259 wOBA, 38.8 Whiff%) is no longer new news and he’s only throwing it 16.8% of the time, but he’s incorporated it so well with his slider (.217 wOBA, 32.6 Whiff%) and fastballs that it’s having a positive effect on his entire arsenal this year and really helped drive up that strikeout rate to where he’s now a viable daily fantasy starter. Though his 2.78 ERA is still well below his 3.83 SIERA (those six unearned run in Boston are 30% of his season total), a 3.29 DRA and .299 xwOBA suggest he’s been a really good pitcher. In addition to the league average strikeout rate, Montas is generating more ground balls (51.9%) and finds himself in a really nice spot in Detroit tonight. The Tigers have a team 72 wRC+ and 26.3 K% vs RHP with just a 7.0 HR/FB at home this year. Montas may not have nearly the upside of some other pitchers on tonight’s slate, but should slot in reasonably well for less than $9K on either site.
Three of first four in Dodger projected lineup above 150 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP last calendar year
Anthony DeSclafani has been a perfectly league average pitcher by many metrics (4.17 ERA, 3.93 SIERA, 4.29 DRA, .322 xwOBA), but has a wide platoon split (LHBs .384 wOBA against him last calendar year) and is certainly a dangerous matchup against the Dodgers (119 wRC+, 9.2 K-BB%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP) at home. At exactly five implied runs, the Dodgers are still behind six teams on this full slate despite a large park upgrade that plays especially friendly to power hitters. This is just a tremendous spot for the three left-handed power hitters expected to be in the top half of the Dodger batting order tonight: Joc Pederson (154 wRC+, .374 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Max Muncy (162 wRC+, .301 ISO), and Cody Bellinger (169 wRC+, .287 ISO). All are at least $5K on DraftKings, but Pederson and Muncy are each only around $3K on FanDuel. Alex Verdugo (124 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Corey Seager (104 wRC+, .191 ISO) offer some more affordable exposure on DK.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo, Corey Seager, Anthony DeSclafani Flying High Again
Matt Carpenter broke his slump with a home run last night, but he’s still priced way down across the industry due to his low batting average. Fly ball hitters like Carpenter are going to have ups and downs with shaky batting average floors, but hitting leadoff for the top offense on the slate adds to both his floor and his ceiling. In his first at bat against Jose Leclerc, his patience will help him and then when Texas turns to Adrian Sampson, the low strikeouts will allow Carpenter and the rest of these Cardinals bats to take advantage of the ballpark with their hard hits and fly balls.
Dangerous Offense Gets Platoon Advantage
Anthony DeSclafani has had trouble with left-handed power hitters throughout his career, allowing a .535 slugging percentage to lefties this season and a .575 slugging mark to lefties last season. That makes a matchup with the Dodgers less than ideal, with a number of powerful left-handed hitters stacking the lineup. Joc Pederson should be leading off and has 13 HRs in only 99 ABs against right-handers this season, and he’ll be followed in the lineup by Max Muncy and the always-dangerous Cody Bellinger.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Max Muncy
Load Up Here
Oakland is filled with right-handed power at reasonable salaries facing a fly ball lefty in Daniel Norris and a bad Detroit bullpen. Khris Davis is way too cheap on most sites with his .319 ISO, 47% fly balls and 48% hard hits against left-handed pitching. He is generally more of a tournament option, but at this salary, I’ll use him even in cash games on DK/FDRFT.
Gerrit Cole has a 32.1 K-BB% this season and 40.7 K% over the last month
Three pitchers stand all alone above $10K on either site tonight (Cole Hamels is the only other pitcher above $9K on both sites – Martin Perez is above $9K on FanDuel only). Gerrit Cole has struck out at least eight in all but one start this year and tops the board with both a 38.9 K% and 32.1 K-BB% this season. Think that’s unsustainable? He’s struck out 40.7% of batters with a 16.7 SwStr% over the last month. That’s playable in any park against any team. Whether it’s the best value on the board is another question because he’s certainly going to be tested in Boston tonight. Cole’s 3.88 ERA is well above all of his estimators, including a 2.76 DRA, 2.51 SIERA, and .257 xwOBA. His .288 BABIP is actually 41 points above what the Astros have allowed as a defense this year. The Red Sox are below a 10 K-BB% at home, vs RHP and over the last seven days, but they are also right around a 13 HR/FB (below league average) in all three instances as well. If it looks like Cole is going to go under-owned today, don’t be afraid to grab him.
Jacob deGrom dominated the Marlins through seven innings last time out (5 H – 1 R – 8 K). His 33 K% is second best on the board, while his 3.26 ERA has fallen in line with the rest of his estimators, although his 2.07 DRA is still quite a bit lower and his .277 xwOBA is second best on the board. A 26.4 LD% belies the fact that 43.4% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity this year and that’s been the problem for him early on. However, other than allowing a 50% hard hit rate to the Padres two starts back, he’s been below 25% hard contact in three of his last four starts overall. With deGrom starting to round back into last year’s form and the top matchup (Marlins 19.5 K-BB%, 8.8 HR/FB) vs RHP) in a great park, the only questions appear to be about ownership and leverage (Projected Ownership and SlateIQ) are available to premium subscribers).
Max Scherzer averages three times through the order and has struck out at least seven in every start. His 33.2 K% is third best on the board today (28.1 K-BB% is second). Nearly all of his estimators are around a run below his 3.64 ERA due to a .361 BABIP, which is impossible to justify through any underlying numbers, though he has generated just one popup (38 last year). The Cubs are a difficult, but not impossible matchup with a 112 wRC+, 12.1 K-BB% and 16.2 HR/FB vs RHP.
C.C. Sabathia has allowed eight HRs over his last four starts
C.C. Sabathia is still managing contact fairly well by exit velocity (85.5 mph average), but has allowed exactly one barrel per every 10 batted balls this season and eight HRs over his last four starts. Combine his 20 HR/FB this year with just an 8.0 K-BB% and things aren’t looking too good for C.C. in his final season. Each of his non-FIP estimators (SIERA, xFIP, DRA) are all at least two runs above his 3.26 ERA, as he simply won’t be able to sustain a magical .183 BABIP, though he is inducing a lot of popups (37.5 GB%, 12.5 IFFB%) to go with those HRs. RHBs now have a .331 wOBA against Sabathia over the last calendar year and it certainly doesn’t hurt that conditions appear to be favorable for hitters at Yankee Stadium tonight. It’s also unlikely too many players will be paying much attention to Tampa Bay bats, stuck on the middle of the board at 4.59 implied runs. This is a nice spot for Yandy Diaz (143 wRC+, .224 ISO, 47.8 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), who has been blistering the baseball recently (154 wRC+, 75 Hard% last seven days). Both Tommy Pham (128 wRC+, .123 ISO, 51.7 Hard%) and Avisail Garcia (115 wRC+, .214 ISO, 55.6 Hard%) have made hard contact on more than half of batted balls against southpaws over the last 12 months as well.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, CC Sabathia, Avisail Garcia Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP last 12 months) is in a great spot against Yonny Chirinos (LHBs .344 xwOBA) at home
Yonny Chirinos struck out just two of the 17 Yankees he faced in his last outing and his strikeout rate is down to just 15.7% over the last month. He’s expected to pitch the bulk of the game behind tonight’s opener (Ryne Stanek). All of his estimators are well above his ERA (3.61), including a 5.23 DRA. He’s allowed six HRs over his last 91 batters faced. A .205 BABIP is completely unsustainable and his 10.8% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board. Tampa Bay’s use of an opener makes hitter projections a bit more difficult, but assuming Chirinos should see most of, if not the entire Yankee order twice, there’s some upside in the middle of this order with great hitting conditions expected in New York (premium subscribers have access to Weather Edge). RHBs have been average against Chirinos over the last year (.307 wOBA, .315 xwOBA). Luke Voit (148 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Gleyber Torres (114 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (88 wRC+, .230 ISO) all line up well here. The latter two are each above a 200 wRC+ over the last week. Sanchez has been destroying nearly one-third of the baseballs he makes contact with this year (29.9% Barrels/BBE). Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .204 ISO) may be the bargain if in this lineup though. While LHBs have just a .261 wOBA against Chirinos over the last 12 months, a 47.9 Hard% and 36.4 GB%, push his xwOBA up to .344 and make this a great spot for Hicks, who costs a very reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings. At 4.91 implied runs currently, the Yankees are only eighth highest on today’s board.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek Trevor Richards a Good Option at SP Despite Recent Struggles
As it has already been mentioned, it’s tough to find pitching tonight, especially if you’re not paying up for DeGrom or Scherzer. Trevor Richards gets a decent matchup at home with the Mets tonight, who have a middle-of-the-road 99 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs. RHP this year but will be without one of their best bats in Michael Conforto. Richards does have an ugly 4.46 ERA / 5.58 xFIP / 5.11 SIERA on the year. That said, he still has an impressive 13.2% SwStr, a respectable .329 xwOBA allowed, and three pitches (fastball, change, cutter) with positive p-vals on the year. Though the Marlins will be heavy underdogs facing DeGrom, this game has just a 6.5 O/U in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park and the Mets have just a 3.81 implied total vs. Richards. Richards can be had for just $7.2k on Draftkings and $6.4k on Fanduel despite the advantageous home park and decent matchup. He has a 4.00 ERA and .292 wOBA allowed in Marlins Park compared to a 4.92 ERA and .356 wOBA allowed on the road in his career.
Merrill Kelly Is a Cheap, Viable Arm Tonight
Kelly hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his rookie year with a 4.70 ERA / 4.67 xFIP / 4.84 SIERA and 9.5 K-BB%. His value tonight will come from his matchup, as he’s at home facing a weak Giants offense that has just an 86 wRC+ and 24% K rate vs. RHP in 2019. The Giants are projected for just 4.09 implied runs at the moment and the D-Backs are -150 favorites, increasing Kelly’s chance at earning the ‘W’ bonus. Despite the favorable matchup, Kelly is priced at just $6.7k on Draftkings and $7.7k on Fanduel. Even with mediocre numbers, Kelly hasn’t been prone to blow-ups this year as he’s pitched at least 5 innings in 6 of 8 starts and has a decent 44% GB rate which helps to limit damage. It doesn’t hurt that Kelly has been much better at home (.333 xwOBA allowed) versus away (.413 xwOBA allowed) on the year. He is definitely not a sexy option, but pitching on tonight’s main slate is pretty rough and as it stands, Kelly looks like a decent pts/$ play given the price and matchup.
Fourth Place Gets A Medal
The top three pitchers are light years ahead of the field tonight, but we won’t necessarily be able to jam in two of them on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo, while on FD there will be certain builds that just can’t be reached with the aces. The standout SP2 for me tonight is Joey Lucchesi at home against the Pirates. Lucchesi’s pitch count is always a bit of a risk, but the Pirates have been so bad against lefties that it offsets that more then enough for me. Lucchesi has shown solid control again this season, and with the Pirates low power and low walks, he can find his way into enough easy outs to make up for the pitch count. He would be my choice as an SP2 on two-pitcher sites and at his low FD salary, he has as much points per dollar upside as the aces.
Ace, Ace, Ace
Three of the best pitchers in the league appear on this slate, followed by a huge drop-off. I don’t see any way around using one of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole in cash games and in most tournament lineups. While all three have similarly elite talent, the huge matchup edge goes to deGrom in Miami. While Scherzer and Cole both face teams with low strikeouts and high walks with plenty of power, deGrom sees a Marlins team that ranks dead last in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching and has the league’s second highest strikeout rate. There is no need to overthink this one.
Leading Off The Fireworks Show
Against right-handed pitching so far this season, Minnesota ranks 3rd in runs scored, 1st in ISO and 2nd in wOBA. Tonight they face a rookie pitcher in Erik Swanson who is allowing fly balls with low strikeouts and is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. There is individual power throughout the lineup, but you can start right up top with a reasonable price tag on Max Kepler. He is doing everything well this season, with just 16% K and 10.4% BB against righties leading to a .365 wOBA and 42% fly balls and hard hits leading to a .257 ISO. His top of the lineup batting spot gives him run scoring upside in addition to his power ability.
Endless Upside
The Blue Jays face a bad starter in Dylan Covey and a bad White Sox bullpen in a good hitting environment in Chicago. Covey has struck out just 18.2% of lefties since last season, with a .355 wOBA allowed. The middle of the Toronto lineup has a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard hits, with Justin Smoak coming in at a .241 ISO since last season, and while the surface numbers don’t look great this year, a huge 56% hard hit rate says better things are coming.