DFS Alerts
Elite Spot For The Righty Bats
Adrian Sampson owns a sub-15% strikeout rate for his MLB career with a SIERA and xFIP around 5.00. He has also shown strong reverse splits, allowing a .416 wOBA to right-handed hitters. You can’t go wrong with any of the top end RHBs for the Astros, but I’ll side with Bregman as my top play today. I am all aboard the Houston train this afternoon, and they should be brimming with confidence after piling up 11 runs on Saturday. Adrian Sampson has those strong reverse splits so far in his MLB career to go along with ridiculously low strikeouts, and this is a nightmare matchup for him. Bregman owns a .365 wOBA and .218 ISO against RHP for his career, and he only strikes out 15% of the time. Contact will be made here, and I expect a big game. Yuli Gurriel has been heating up of late and is my favorite value on the board, as well.
Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel
Some Value in SDP Lineup Despite Coors Pricing
We’ll often see many bats in Coors get priced over $5k on Draftkings, but the Padres lineup has some guys that look like good values tonight vs. Jon Gray. Gray has largely been the same pitcher this year as he always is, generating lots of groundballs and strikeouts but with an ERA a full run higher than his estimators. Gray isn’t a bad pitcher by any means (career 3.57 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB) but is certainly a target in Coors just like most other pitchers would be. Greg Garcia leads off for the Padres at just $4k on Draftkings and has a 117 wRC+ this year. Franmil Reyes bats 2nd with a $4.6k price tag, he has a 128 wRC+ for his career and a .422 xwOBA this year vs. RHP. Manny Machado bats 3rd at $4.9k and has started to heat up with a .407 xwOBA over the past 10 days after a rough start to the year. Eric Hosmer (.383 xwOBA over the past 10 days) is heating up as well and is $4.7k batting 4th. Tyler France is just $4k batting 6th and has a 108 wRC+ so far in 41 PA this year. Hunter Renfroe isn’t quite as cheap but has a 126 wRC+ on the year and has 3 home runs in his last 17 PA.
Other tagged players: Greg Garcia, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, Ty France
Mets Bats in a Good Spot Tonight
The Mets get a matchup at home with Sandy Alcantara, who is talented but has mostly had a rough time over 81 major league innings. Alcantara averages 95 on his fastball and has decent offspeed stuff; he does a good job limiting hard contact with just an 84.9 aEV and a 10% Hard-Soft. His main issue is control (12.2% BB rate, 3.5% K-BB on the year) which leads to a lot of baserunners and runs allowed. He also averages just 5.4 innings per start, which should give the Mets more plate appearances vs. a terrible Miami pen that has a 4.84 xFIP and 1.69 HR/9 on the year. Robinson Cano (.390 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Michael Conforto (.360), Pete Alonso (.349), Jeff Mcneil (.338) and JD Davis (.322) are all good options in the top part of the Mets order. Brandon Nimmo (.357) is batting 7th but comes at a discount given his struggles to start the year. Conforto has been the hottest Met over the past 10 days with a .385 xwOBA, while Alonso has cooled off a bit with a .295 mark. Also working in the Mets’ favor tonight is a very hitter-friendly umpire in Stu Scheurwater. They currently have a 4.61 implied line vs. Alcantara and the Marlins Saturday Night.
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano, Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, Sandy Alcantara DeSclafani Has Nice Matchup and K Upside
Anthony DeSclafani is another pitcher who has seen a sizable jump in K% this year, he’s currently sitting on a 28.6%K rate which is well above the 21% mark for his career. DeSclafani has shown increased velocity on all his pitches in 2019, as he is throwing a much-improved curve that has a .187 xwOBA allowed and 43% Whiff rate. Desclafani has been much worse vs. LHB (.365 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .259 allowed vs. RHB since 2018) but the LHB he will face tonight (Joe Panik, Stephen Vogt, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Crawford Steven Duggar) aren’t much of a threat as none of them have an xwOBA > .330 vs. RHP since 2018. The Giants as a team have just an 83 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs. RHP this year. Pitching in spacious AT&T Park, the Giants have just a 3.33 implied line vs. DeSclafani. DeSclafani will also have the benefit of pitcher-friendly ump Ben May.
Kevin Gausman Has Had a Solid 2019 Despite ERA and is Affordable Tonight
Gausman gets a matchup with the Diamondbacks in Chase Field Saturday Night. The Diamondbacks have actually been better than expected this year with a 93 wRC+ vs. RHP. With that said, many of their top of the order guys have produced well above their projections and are likely due for some regression. Gausman himself has shown some nice improvements in 2019: his ERA is inflated at 5.00 but all his estimators are a full run lower, he also has a career best .303 xwOBA allowed. Gausman also currently has a career best 26.3% K rate thanks to an improved 13% SwStr. He’s almost completely ditched his slider and is throwing his splitter much more, which has been his best pitch in terms of xwOBA against and Whiff%. Gausman will face 5 LHB versus 3 RHB (pitcher not included) but this won’t be a problem given his splits (.353 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .313 xwOBA vs. LHB) over the past 2 years. Gausman will also have the benefit of a great pitch framer in Tyler Flowers and a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Bill Miller. The D-Backs have a 4.59 implied line vs. Gausman, which feels pretty generous. Gausman is just $7.8k on Dratkings and is arguably the best value on the board at pitcher tonight.
Tyler Naquin (calf) scratched Saturday; Jordan Luplow replaces
Naquin has been scratched from the Cleveland Indians original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to left calf tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Jordan Luplow, who will now play right field and slot directly into Naquin’s vacated sixth spot in the order. However, other than Roberto Perez and Mike Freeman flip-flopping batting positions, the remainder of the Indians lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-handers Liam Hendriks and Aaron Brooks on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes via Twitter Other tagged players: Jordan Luplow
Ryan Braun (hamstring) scratched Saturday; Ben Gamel replaces
Braun has been scratched from the Milwaukee Brewers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago Cubs due to left hamstring soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ben Gamel, who will now play left field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, and Hernan Perez up to third, fifth, and sixth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Brewers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Cole Hamels on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: the Milwaukee Brewers via Twitter Other tagged players: Ben Gamel Too Good Of A Matchup
Most people might be afraid to use a pitcher in Coors, but this is a great matchup for Jon Gray today. He faces off against the free swinging Padres team, who will throw out most likely 7 or 8 right handed batters. Gray to righties this season has been awesome with a 30% strikeout rate and a 58% ground ball rate. The Padres as a team have the third lowest strikeout rate to right handed pitchers, at 26% this season. I do like Gray as a GPP option tonight on all sites but especially like the price tag on FanDuel at 6800.
High Price Pivot
Gerritt Cole in tournaments makes sense as a high-priced pivot of deGrom chalk today. He has the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 37% and also has a 16% swinging strike rate this season. Texas has some strikeouts, especially towards the bottom half of the lineup, and Cole is pitching at an elite level this season. deGrom will be everyone’s preferred spend up, so paying up for anyone besides him should be contrarian, but Cole in my opinion is the number one pivot.
Stack Up Those Astros
The Astros are a high price stack that I will be overweight on in GPPs. Drew Smyly has given up a 43% fly ball rate, 56% hard hit rate, and a 13% walk rate, and the Astros as a team this year are top ten in ISO and first in wOBA to left-handed pitching. Hopefully with Coors on this slate, it will keep the Astros ownership down a little in GPPs. My top targets are Springer, Bregman, Correa, and Brantley.
Stack Up Those Astros
The Astros are a high price stack that I will be overweight on in GPPs. Drew Smyly has given up a 43% fly ball rate, 56% hard hit rate, and a 13% walk rate, and the Astros as a team this year are top ten in ISO and first in wOBA to left-handed pitching. Hopefully with Coors on this slate, it will keep the Astros ownership down a little in GPPs. My top targets are Springer, Bregman, Correa, and Brantley.
Stack Up Those Astros
The Astros are a high price stack that I will be overweight on in GPPs. Drew Smyly has given up a 43% fly ball rate, 56% hard hit rate, and a 13% walk rate, and the Astros as a team this year are top ten in ISO and first in wOBA to left-handed pitching. Hopefully with Coors on this slate, it will keep the Astros ownership down a little in GPPs. My top targets are Springer, Bregman, Correa, and Brantley.
Stack Up Those Astros
The Astros are a high price stack that I will be overweight on in GPPs. Drew Smyly has given up a 43% fly ball rate, 56% hard hit rate, and a 13% walk rate, and the Astros as a team this year are top ten in ISO and first in wOBA to left-handed pitching. Hopefully with Coors on this slate, it will keep the Astros ownership down a little in GPPs. My top targets are Springer, Bregman, Correa, and Brantley.
Lefty Masher
Nelson Cruz is one of my favorite one-offs of the day. He will be facing the lefty Gregory Soto, who is being called up for his first major league appearance to start the second game of the double header today. Cruz against left-handed pitching last year had a 294 ISO, 400 wOBA, and a 52% hard hit rate. He will be on most, if not all of my lineups.
Start of PIT-STL will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Cardinals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Miles Mikolas not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through upon the conclusion of a likely lengthy initial delay.
As reported by: Bill Brink via Twitter