DFS Alerts
A Bit Redundant
It’s a bit redundant to explain how awesome of a play Nolan Arenado is at home against left-handed pitching but here we are. For his career, Arenado is the owner of a 181 wRC+ and .379 ISO against left-handed pitching at Coors Field. There’s no doubt that Arenado is the top play on the main slate from a projection stand point but he may get squeezed out of cash game lineups if you’re looking to roster two expensive starting pitchers.
Biggest Decision Point
Perhaps the biggest decision point for Saturday’s slate is who to roster in your second starting pitcher slot on multi-SP sites. I have deGrom locked in as my SP1 but it is certainly reasonable to pair him with another stud (Cole/Scherzer) and save on hitters. If going cheap at SP2, Kevin Gausman is your man. Gausman has had a slow start to the season but has still shown strong strikeout upside with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 13% whiff rate. The context is favorable for Gausman as well as he’ll get the pitcher friendly Bill Miller behind the plate at Chase Field which has played neutral for pitchers since the addition of the humidor.
It's All About The Matchup
The beat goes on with Jacob deGrom. He pitches well, and the Mets score no runs for him. Rinse, lather, repeat. While his ERA doesn’t look all that great so far this season, that is largely the result of a fluky high HR/FB rate. His advanced numbers prove that he is fine with a 33.5% strikeout rate and a healthy swinging strike rate. Oh, and he also faces the Marlins tonight — and it’s clear at this point that the Marlins are by far the worst offense in the league. Even though this slate is loaded with ace pitchers, deGrom is an easy top choice for me in all formats.
Rock Solid SP2
Thanks to the small sample size in 2019, it’s easy to dismiss the elevated strikeouts as a fluke. However, there are two factors that could be contributing to that. Anthony DeSclafani is using a curve ball much more this season (16% of the time compared to just 4% last year). His fastball velocity also sits at the highest mark of his career. It’s all added up to a solid start and that hefty 28.6% strikeout rate. I’m on board with him as a long-term buy, and I like his prospects tonight against a team that doesn’t offer much in the way of dangerous bats from either side of the plate.
Always Elite At Home
Arenado is the top overall bat on tonight’s slate. The Colorado slugger is heating up in a big way with four straight multi-hit games on his resume, and he is hitting .415 against left-handed pitching this season. He has a career .424 wOBA and .297 ISO against left-handed pitching. Even though Joey Lucchesi is a reasonably talented pitcher, I’ll side with a red hot Arenado at home as an elite play in all formats.
Context Play
Garrett Hampson is much more of a context play than anything else but one I think is likely necessary to make as long as he’s in Saturday night’s lineup. Hampson gives you cheap exposure to the team with the highest implied run total of the slate at a weak position. Hampson does have ridiculous speed which should play well with the large outfield in Coors as he looks to stretch doubles into triples.
Good Lineup Spot and Very Affordable
For a while, it looked like “No Mets, No Cash” on Friday, as the Mets piled up 11 runs over the first four innings against the Marlins. They slowed down and did not score after that, but it at least provided some momentum for a struggling team. Now comes the real litmus test — scoring runs for Jacob deGrom. Alcantara has been poor this year with a SIERA and xFIP both well over 5.00, below average strikeouts, and a hefty 12% walk rate. He has walked more left-handed hitters than he has struck out. Yikes. The best way to get exposure here will be to target value options in solid lineup spots, which gives Robinson Cano the top nod for me. His overall numbers have lagged this year, but he still has a 41% hard contact rate and should get plenty of RBI opportunities in this game. I’ve tagged him as a core value.
Elite Shortstop Play
The Rangers are going with the recent fad of using an “opener” and will attempt to throw Jesse Chavez in front of Drew Smyly tonight. You can put lipstick on the pig. At the end of the day, it’s still a pig. The Texas pitching staff is still dreadful no matter how they utilize the arms within said pitching staff. It is worth noting that Jose Altuve pulled up injured trying to leg out a hit last night, and it would surprise me if he plays tonight. However, we still have plenty of options with George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa all offering power potential. I will prioritize the better hitters against LHP since Smyly will likely pitch the most. Bregman, Springer, and Correa all have wOBA marks above .355 against LHP since the start of last season. I’ve tagged Correa as the core play because of his salary combined with the shortstop positional eligibility. Shortstop gets thin in a real hurry behind Story and Correa tonight.
Tigers Stack an Intriguing Option vs. Pineda
Pineda has been largely the same pitcher this year that we’re used to seeing: he limits walks and gets a decent amount of Ks, but gives up lots of loud contact and seemingly always has an ERA much higher than his estimators. This year, Pineda is giving up more loud contact than ever with a 45.9% hard contact rate, a 1.85 HR/9 and just a 36.7% GB rate, all career worsts. He also has a 90.9 aEV and .357 xwOBA allowed, also career worsts. Pineda has actually been worse vs. RHB this year with a .381 xwOBA allowed so far. Nick Castellanos (.365 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Miguel Cabrera (.354), Gordon Beckham (.345, 83 PA), Ronny Rodriguez (.291) and John Hicks (.287) are right-handed options in the Tigers projected order. Christin Stewart (.365) and Jeimer Candelario (.281) project to hit in the top third of the order and are also in play. Ronny Rodriguez has been the Tigers hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .398 xwOBA. Tigers bats should be pretty contrarian given just a 3.75 implied line Saturday afternoon in Minnesota.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Gordon Beckham, Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart, Ronny Rodriguez, Michael Pineda
Boston Bats Looking Good Again Today
Boston went off for 14 runs in a good spot yesterday and now get an equally juicy matchup with Felix Hernandez. Since 2018, Hernandez has a 5.14 ERA / 4.40 xFIP and a 1.7 HR/9. This year, Felix has cut his walk rate in half compared to 2018, but has seen his hard contact%, aEV and barrel/BBE all increase as a result. Boston has been the hottest offense in the league over the last 10 days with a .375 xwOBA. Mookie Betts (177 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018), Michael Chavis (163 wRC+, 59 PA), J.D. Martinez (157 wRC+), Andrew Benintendi (134 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (127 wRC+), Mitch Moreland (114 wRC+) and Rafael Devers (110 wRC+) are all great options. Jackie Bradley (92 wRC+) is just $2.8k and by far the cheapest Red Sox hitter batting 8th. Rafael Devers has been the hottest hitter with a .476 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Every Red Sox hitter has an xwOBA > .350 over the past 10 days besides Xander Bogaerts. Boston currently has a 6.13 implied line vs. Felix and the Mariners in Fenway Saturday afternoon.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Michael Chavis, Felix Hernandez Elite Run Prevention + Strikeout Spot
Out of all of the stud pitchers scheduled to pitch deGrom enters Saturday night with the best context. deGrom and the Mets will host the Marlins and are currently listed as -270 favorites while the Marlins have a measly 2.6 implied run total. On top of being offensively inept (66 wRC+ vs RHP), the Marlins also own the league’s highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers at 27%. This is both an elite strikeout and run prevention spot for the Mets ace.
Corey Seager scratched Friday; Enrique Hernandez replaces
Seager has been scratched from the Los Angeles Dodgers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Washington Nationals due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Enrique Hernandez, who will now play second base and slot directly into Seager’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Dodgers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Anibal Sanchez at home this evening.
As reported by: Ken Gurnick via Twitter Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez
Pirates Bats a Contrarian Option
The Pirates have just a 3.79 implied total despite a matchup with Adam Wainwright, who hasn’t looked good since 2017. Wainwright has a 4.71 ERA / 4.73 xFIP with a 9.5 K-BB% on the year. He also has just a 6.8% SwStr , a 40.5% hard contact rate and a 9% barrel rate allowed. Since 2017, Wainwright has a 4.91 ERA / 4.43 xFIP and 10 K-BB%. Josh Bell (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Starling Marte (.345), Adam Frazier (.338) Colin Moran (.334) and Francisco Cervelli (.333) have all been above average vs. RHP since 2018 and are options tonight. Mellky Cabrera (.323) is batting 3rd and is just $3.8k on Draftkings. Josh Bell has been by far the hottest hitter on the Pirates with a .474 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Bryan Reynolds (129 wRC+ in AA last year) will bat 5th at just $3.5k.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Melky Cabrera, Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli, Adam Wainwright Boston Stacks Looking Good for Friday Night
The Red Sox will face Erik Swanson at home Friday night and are my favorite stack on the slate. Swanson has a 4.94 ERA / 5.08 xFIP over his first 24 MLB innings with a 1.9 HR/9. He’s done a good job limiting walks, but has an ugly 32.1% GB rate and 10% barrel/BBE. After starting off the year slow, Red Sox hitters have turned it around with a 2nd best .365 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Because of the slow start, there are a lot of hitters in the lineup that look to be priced cheaper than they should be. JD Martinez (.428 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Mookie Betts (.422), Michael Chavis (.394, 71 PA), Mitch Moreland (.387), Xander Bogaerts (.352) and Andrew Benintendi (.371) are all great options in the Red Sox lineup that mash RHP. Jackie Bradley (.357) is hitting 8th but just $2.9k on DK. Benintendi is leading off at $4.6k, and JD Martinez is slightly more at $4.8k. Moreland and Bogaerts are both just $4.4k. Rafael Devers is just $4.3k and has been the Red Sox hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .456 xwOBA. The Red Sox have a 5.92 implied line vs. Swanson and the Mariners Friday night.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley, Michael Chavis, Erik Swanson Glasnow Worth the Price Tonight
Tyler Glasnow has been incredible this season with a 1.47 ERA / 2.95 xFIP / 3.11 SIERA and a 24.4 K-BB%. Glasnow’s hard contact % is just 4 points higher than his soft contact%, and his .231 xwOBA allowed is the best in the league among 136 qualified starters. He’s shown no signs of slowing down with a .188 xwOBA allowed over the past 3 weeks. Glasnow has routinely used his four-seamer (averaging 96.6 MPH) MPH up in the the zone to set up his nasty curve, which has an incredible 40.3 Whiff% and .126 xwOBA against. Glasnow will face the Yankees tonight, who are beginning to return some of their previously injured sluggers. Still, Glasnow will have the platoon advantage against all but one Yankee hitter tonight and gets a pitcher-friendly umpire in Tony Randazzo tonight. The Yankees have just a 3.12 implied line vs. Glasnow and the Rays tonight at Tropicana.