DFS Alerts
Rodriguez a Great Value Arm Tonight
Dereck Rodriguez is in a nice spot tonight, pitching in spacious AT&T Park vs. the Reds. The Reds have just a 72 wRC+ vs. RHP (2nd worst in the league) and a 24.3% K rate. They have also been cold of late with a .310 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Dereck Rodriguez isn’t a super talented pitcher, but he’s been serviceable at the very least with a 3.50 ERA and 4.62 xFIP in his young career. It doesn’t hurt that Rodriguez has been much better at home (.290 xwOBA allowed, 3.22 ERA) versus away (.350 xwOBA allowed, 3.88 ERA) in his career. At just $6.3k on Draftkings and $6.4k on Fanduel, Rodriguez doesn’t need to do anything crazy to hit value on either site. He lacks K upside (18% K rate for his career) but projects to eat innings and prevent runs tonight in a good spot. The Reds have just a 3.76 implied line vs. Rodriguez and the Giants Friday night.
Value and Upside in Jays’ Projected Lineup Tonight
The Blue Jays will face Dylan Covey at home in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight. Covey is a career 6.06 ERA / 4.85 xFIP pitcher with a 4.9 K-BB%. This will be Covey’s 2nd start of 2019; he briefly started the year in the bullpen and was quickly demoted to AAA, but was recently called back up to take the place of Carlos Rodon. Covey normally does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (career 51.7% GB rate) but allows a ton of baserunners with a career 1.57 WHIP. Covey has been worse vs. lefties with a .368 xwOBA and 1.67 HR/9 vs. LHB in his career, with a .339 xwOBA and 1.32 HR/9 vs. RHB. Notable lefties in the Jays’ projected lineup include Justin Smoak (.377 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez (.361), Eric Sogard (.299, likely leading off) and Freddy Galvis (.279). Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Randall Grichuk (.316) are both decent right-handed options. With the exception of Eric Sogard ($4.5k), all Blue Jays bats are $4k or less on Draftkings tonight. The Blue Jays have a 4.82 implied total vs. Covey and the White Sox.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Eric Sogard, Freddy Galvis, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dylan Covey Luis Castillo has missed bats (30.3%), generated ground balls (57.8%) and limited hard contact (85.3 mph aEV)
Luis Castillo allowed a season high four runs to the Giants in his last start, but struck out nine batters fro the third time this year and gets a major park boost for the rematch tonight. He ties Justin Verlander for the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.3%), but stands alone with a 14.9 SwStr%, almost a full point higher than German Marquez’s (14.1%). Castillo has a 31.4 Z-O-Swing% and has solved his HR problem through a combination of whiffs and ground balls (57.8%), not that it would have even been much of a problem in this park. All of this, along with an 85.3 mph aEV, has helped him to the second best xwOBA on the board (.243) and top DRA (2.17). Even though his 1.97 ERA is well below his other estimators, the batted ball metrics do support the actual results. Tonight, he faces a Giants’ offense with a 58 wRC+ and 6.3 HR/FB at home this year, which should give him a generally high floor in addition to the high ceiling. Castillo is either the second or third most expensive pitcher on either site, but is probably the most interesting of the top three tonight.
Pablo Lopez Once Again A Good Mid-Tier Arm
Lopez has quietly been very solid to begin the year with a 3.67 xFIP / 3.63 SIERA / 4.07 ERA with a 25 % K rate compared to just a 5.8% BB rate. Lopez has also given up just 28.8% hard contact compared to 18.8% soft contact, and a .274 xwOBA that ranks 15th best among 136 qualified starters. Lopez will have a tough time getting wins on any given night pitching for the Marlins (Miami is again an underdog tonight) but Lopez continues to be very affordable across the industry, he’s $8.1k on Draftkings and just $7.2k on Fanduel. Lopez has a good matchup vs. an ice-cold Mets team that has the 3rd lowest xwOBA in the MLB over the last 10 days with a .283 mark. On the year, the Mets have a 91 wRC+ with a 24.4% K rate vs. RHP. They currently have a 4.05 line vs. Lopez and the Marlins Friday night.
Frankie Montas is in a great spot at home (Indians 72 wRC+ vs RHP) with added Ks
Frankie Montas has a league average strikeout rate, but that’s a pretty big bump from previously (15.2% last year). The increase can be mostly attributed to his new split finger, which he only throws 16% of the time, but has a 41.7 Whiff%. The threat of this pitch has made his sinker and four-seamer, which he throws higher in the zone, a bit more effective. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s added nearly a full mile per hour to his average velocity this year. The league average strikeout rate with a 51.7 GB% and league average aEV (87.6 mph) at an average cost tends to have some value in a negative run environment, especially in a favorable matchup like the one he has tonight. The Cleveland Indians have a 72 wRC+ on the road, vs RHP and over the last seven days. They also have at least a 24.3 K% in each of those instances. In three home starts, Montas has allowed just a total of five earned runs and while the upside is not enamoring, he should at least be able to pay off a price tag of $8.5K or less on either site.
Spend Up In The Outfield
Mike Trout is my top overall hitter on this slate, but with the need to spend up at pitching, he’s a little tough to jam in everywhere. If you can’t quite afford Trout but still want a high end OF, I prefer J.D. Martinez in the matchup against a fly ball pitcher in Boston ahead of his teammate Mookie Betts. Martinez has brought his strikeout rate down even below Betts against right-handed pitching this season and his long term power numbers are better against fly ball pitchers like Erik Swanson.
Jake Odorizzi is dominating in the strike zone (75.1 Z-Contact%)
Jake Odorizzi has not allowed a run in two straight starts and has struck out 15 of his last 49 batters. These weren’t cupcake lineups either. He’s faced Houston and the Yankees. His numbers have been pretty amazing. A 26.6 K% is the result of a board best 75.1 Z-Contact%. In an era where most pitchers are cutting down on fastball usage, Odorizzi is dealing his four-seamer 55% of the time at 92 mph up in the zone and getting batters to swing through it. He compliments that with cutters (41 Whiff%), curves, and splitters down. Not only is he getting swings and misses, but only 27% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity this season. If all this isn’t enough to entice players to roster him tonight, the matchup is mouth-watering. The Tigers have a team 78 wRC+, 26.4 K% and 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Jake Odorizzi, within $200 of $9K on either site, may be one of the top values on the board tonight.
Left-Handers Face a Difficult Task Taking On This Lineup In Their Home Ballpark
Coors Field can be dangerous for any pitcher, but left-handers especially have a difficult time getting through the Rockies lineup due to the presence of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Mark Reynolds. Arenado has crushed left-handers at home with a .372 batting average, 39 HRs in 462 ABs, and a 1.191 OPS. Trevor Story is almost as dangerous with a 1.143 OPS versus left-handers at home, while Mark Reynolds has a .852 OPS in his career at home against left-handers. Tonight the Rockies face Eric Lauer and the Padres as strong -165 favorites in a game with a 10+ run total, making any of the Rockies dangerous right-handed power hitters usable as a one-off player in GPPs or the entire group usable as a stack.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds
First five Twins in projected lineup above .200 ISO vs RHP last calendar year
Tyson Ross has a board high 92.8 Z-Contact% and has allowed 11% Barrels/BBE with just a 6.6 K-BB%. Over the last 12 months, LHBs have a .356 wOBA against him, more than 50 points higher than RHBs, but xwOBA bumps RHBs up to .335 and same-handed batters also have a higher hard hit rate against him (43.7%). This situation is worthy of a full on stack with batters from either side of the plate. Minnesota is not a negative run environment and favorable hitting conditions are currently expected (Weather Edge is a premium tool which is updated throughout the day). The home team is currently implied for a healthy 5.6 runs (third best on the board). Each of the first five batters in the lineup (Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, C.J. Cron) are above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and only Kepler (99) is below a 110 wRC+ among that group. This is a well-balanced lineup that doesn’t strike out much (19.4% vs RHP as a team this year) in a strong spot against a pitcher, who probably isn’t starting in most major league rotations at this point.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, C.J. Cron, Eddie Rosario, Tyson Ross Lineup Gets Major Positive Park Shift Tonight
There is a game in Coors Field tonight, but the only team on the slate with a 6+ implied run total tonight is actually playing in Baltimore, where the Angels offense gets a major park upgrade despite playing at normal altitude. The Angels have a number of factors working in their favor tonight, taking on Dan Straily and his 7.43 ERA (6.43 SIERA) and 1.87 WHIP, and if the Mike Trout and his teammates are able to knock out Straily, they’ll be facing an Orioles bullpen that carries a 5.95 ERA, second-worst in the league. Trout will be a popular pick as part of an Angels stack, and I’ll be looking at left-handed bats like Shohei Ohtani, Brian Goodwin, and Tommy La Stella (hitting leadoff tonight) to complete the stack.
Other tagged players: Brian Goodwin, Shohei Ohtani, Tommy La Stella Salary Is The Name Of The Game
On this massively loaded slate, Jason Kipnis doesn’t really belong on a list of Core Plays, but this is simply a matter of having to find some cheap bats to make everything else fit. Second base lacks the upside at the top, so this is the position I’d prefer to take some savings. Oakland’s Frankie Montas is throwing strikes to lefties this season with no ability to limit hard contact or keep the ball on the ground. Kipnis has been hitting near the top of the lineup recently and has strong contact skills and elite hitters on either side of him. He’s not great, but he’s cheap, and that’s what we need.
Save at the Position
Second base is one of the weaker positions on the slate so it makes sense to try to save some salary at the position to allow you to spend up elsewhere. Enter Jason Kipnis who has been batting second for the Indians. Cleveland will travel to Oakland to take on Frankie Montas and the Athletics. While the park shift is unfavorable for the Indians it’s still a plus matchup for Kipnis who will have the platoon advantage against a below average pitcher in Montas.
The Fourth Ace
Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow top the list tonight, but Zack Wheeler is not far behind aided by a matchup at home against the hapless Miami Marlins who rank dead last in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching while striking out at a high clip. The strikeouts have come and gone for Wheeler, but he has two double digit K games in his last three, and even without them, his ability to limit hard contact will make it tough for Miami to get anything done here. Wheeler has the 2nd lowest hard hit rate in the league dating back to last season and is an ideal cash game SP2 if you can find the funds for it.
A Trio Of Aces
Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow lead a strong pitching slate tonight. The matchup for Castillo in San Francisco is good enough that I can make a case for him as the top ace but I’m still leaning to the longer track record of brilliance from Verlander. While the home runs are not going away, this slate requires upside, and I am not concerned with giving up a home run or two. The 38% K rate from Verlander against left-handed batters outweighs the downside of the Texas power.
Get Uncomfortable
DraftKings did a good job at pricing up pretty much any viable starting pitching option on Friday’s slate. That means you’re going to have to get uncomfortable if you want to squeeze in some of the heavy hitters on the slate. Rostering Derek Rodriguez will certainly make you uncomfortable but he has the best context of all of the undesirable options. Rodriguez will have the pleasure of pitching at home at pitcher friendly Oracle Park against a Cincinnati Reds offense that is second to last in the league with a 72 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. You shouldn’t roster DRod expecting a ton of strikeout upside but it does rate as a favorable run prevention spot.