DFS Alerts
Tough Spot to Pass Up
You guys, Paul Goldschmidt is $3,900 on DraftKings. Take that in for a second. A career 143 wRC+, .233 ISO hitter is priced at $3,900 against a pitcher with a carer 4.63 SIERA. Goldy had been struggling at the plate prior to last night’s 3-hit performance but this would still be a tough spot to pass up on him even if you weight cold streaks heavily. Goldschmidt has struggled with a 27.8% strikeout rate this season but the good news for him is that Williams doesn’t miss bats (18.1% strikeout rate). The Cardinals first basemen is an absolute lock for me in cash games.
Settle In
I have been a huge Vlad Jr fanboy to a fault since his call-up. While he’s been disappointing I stand by the opinion that we’re going to look at his current price tags ($3,700 DK, $2,500 FD) later this season and just laugh at how cheap he was. Vlad has uncharacteristically struggled with strikeouts (26.8% strikeout rate) in his first 37 at-bats as he’s almost doubled season long strikeout projections (14.6% strikeout rate per ZiPS). I expect Vlad to eventually settle in and a home matchup against Dylan Covey is a great spot to do so.
Dan Straily's .412 xwOBA & 50.5% 95+ mph EV leads to 6.26 implied run total in Baltimore
Dan Straily has exceed two trips though the lineup (18 batters) just twice this year, so the Angels should be seeing at least half a game’s worth of the Baltimore bullpen with a 4.63 xFIP this year and a .322 wOBA with a .157 ISO allowed to RHBs according to PlateIQ’s new Bullpen tool. Straily, with just a 9.8 K%, .412 xwOBA and 50.5% 95+ mph EV, should have problem of his own before then against a team that rarely strikes out. How bad is it expected to be? You’d think this game was being played at Coors with the wind blowing out. The Angels sit at a ridiculous 6.26 implied runs early on today. People will and should find creative ways to fit Mike Trout (195 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) into their cash game lineups tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 40% and ground ball rate below 35% against Straily over the last 12 months. The big park in Miami helped hide some of those flaws, but Camden is not nearly as forgiving. Shohei Ohtani (171 wRC+, .333 ISO), Tommy La Stella (119 wRC+, .185 ISO), Kole Calhoun (109 wRC+, .256 ISO), and Brian Goodwin (120 wRC+, .177 ISO) are all LHBs of interest in the projected lineup. Even Albert Pujols (82 wRC+, .135 ISO) might be playable here if in the top half of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Dan Straily, Brian Goodwin, Albert Pujols, Tommy La Stella
Trevor Cahill has been getting rocked (nine HRs last 81 batters)
Trevor Cahill has seen his strikeout rate collapse with no more than two in three of his last four starts, in which he’s allowed nine HRs and walked 10 of 81 batters. He’s now sporting a board high 48.2 Z-O-Swing% for the season. His velocity is down a mile per hour from last season and trending downward even further with nearly each start. Also worst on the board are his 13.8% Barrels/BBE for the season and .437 xwOBA over the last month. It’s not often that you’ll see Baltimore bats recommended here, but it’s also not often you’ll see them on the top third of the board (4.74 implied runs) on a full slate. LHBs now have a .376 xwOBA with a 42.9 Hard% against Cahill over the last calendar year. In Dwight Smith Jr. (124 wRC+, .215 ISO) the Orioles actually have an above average bat against RHP over the last 12 months. He and Trey Mancini (113 wRC+, .216 ISO) are the only ones who can claim a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .200 in this projected lineup over that span. Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+, .143 ISO) is probably worth a flyer as well, as Cahill is certainly a pitcher who can be run on as well. Because it’s the Orioles, there are two small potential drawbacks as well. First, Rio Riuz (116 wRC+) is the only batter on the roster with at least 10 PAs over the last week, who is above an 80 wRC+ over that span. Lastly, Cahill has not exceeded a 21.4 GB% in three of his seven starts, but has been at or above 50% in each of his other four starts. However, he’s still allowed six HRs over his last three starts with at least 50% ground balls.
Other tagged players: Trevor Cahill, Rio Ruiz, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar Adam Frazier (133 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) costs $3.4K or less on either site
Adam Frazier has an impressive 133 wRC+ and .210 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, but those might not even be the most interesting numbers here. Michael Wacha has been pretty average by most metrics this year until you get to his obtrusive 14.8% walk rate. Walks aren’t generally what daily fantasy players are looking for, but if Frazier can just get on base a couple of times and score a run or two, he’ll be able to pay off a price of $3.4K or less on either site tonight. St Louis is not considered a hitter friendly park and weather conditions won’t enhance that tonight, but great hitting weather and parks don’t really exist anywhere tonight, nor is there a single pitcher players should really be targeting. At the least, Frazier helps pave the way towards some of the more expensive pitchers tonight.
Other tagged players: Michael Wacha Patrick Corbin has been hit kind of hard (91 mph aEV, 47.4% 95+ mph EV)
Patrick Corbin has struck out just 17 of his last 78 batters and has been below a 10 SwStr% in three of his last four starts. He’s been more of a good (3.71 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 3.45 DRA), not great pitcher for the Nationals so far, hindered a bit by a 91 mph aEV. In fact, nearly half his contact (47.4%) has been above a 95 mph exit velocity. While Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in baseball, the Dodger bats have had no issue putting the ball in the seats and it seems weather is likely to negatively impact all open air stadiums tonight anyway, while the two indoor games feature quality pitching. That’s all a pretty long winded way of saying that this situation may justify some Dodger bats here. While the red-hot Justin Turner (160 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) might be the bat that immediately comes to mind, Corbin has actually been just league average against LHP over the last 12 months (.314 wOBA, .316 xwOBA, 44.9 Hard%). Max Muncy has been seeing the ball well against LHP over that same time period (157 wRC+, .324 ISO, 46.7 Hard%) and has a 277 wRC+ with a 62.5 Hard% overall in the last seven days.
Luke Weaver has a 32.2 K% with just five walks and seven runs allowed over last five starts
Luke Weaver has allowed just seven runs total over his last five starts with a strikeout rate that’s up to 32.2% over that span. He also hasn’t walked more than a single batter in any of those starts. Perhaps just as importantly, Weaver has recorded seventh inning outs in three of those five starts. More strikeouts, fewer runs, and working deeper into games…what’s not to like here? The matchup may be a bit dangerous. The Braves have a 10.6 BB% and 26.5 Hard-Soft% against RHP, but there might be enough strikeouts here (Braves 22.3 K% vs RHP) and Arizona plays much more fairly since the installment of the humidor. Weaver should at least make for a solid secondary pitcher on DraftKings ($8K) with four pitchers at least $1K more on a five game slate. He is a tad more expensive on FanDuel ($8.8K).
Mike Soroka has the lowest aEV on the board (84.2 mph) with a 25.8 K% through four starts
Through four starts, Mike Soroka has not allowed a HR, but has an amazing 84.2 mph aEV (1.2% Barrels/BBE) to go along with his 26.7 K%. While all of his estimators are well above his 1.14 ERA, his 2.21 DRA is still pretty special, even in a small sample. All of his estimators are below three and a half with SIERA (3.40) being the most bearish on him. Soroka is generating swings and misses in the strike zone (81.3 Z-Contact%) and lots of swings outside of it (27.7 Z-O-Swing%), while also generating a 59% ground ball rate. It’s difficult to find any area in which he is lacking this year. Considering a marginal matchup (Diamondbacks 95 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) in a marginal, climate controlled environment, Soroka may be the top pitcher on the board with Mike Minor and Patrick Corbin having to contend with the mighty Astros and Dodgers respectively. Soroka is at least $500 more than any other pitcher on FanDuel, where those other guys may still have a claim at being equal or better values, but over on DraftKings, not only Minor and Corbin, but also Rich Hill are more expensive.
Thursday's Top Arm
The top pitcher site dependent for me tonight. On a neutral basis, I do prefer Mike Soroka. He has shown elite skills on his way to the major leagues, and he is quickly adapting to life at this level. He obviously won’t pitch to a 1.14 ERA all year, but the above average strikeouts are legitimate. It’s also rare to see a young pitcher with such an elite ability to keep hitters off balance, as is evidenced by his sub-28% hard contact rate over his current major league sample size. Soroka is the real deal, and I like him even on the road tonight against a mid-pack Arizona offense.
Serving Up Some Regression
Mike Minor has really good surface numbers this year, but there are plenty of signs that regression is coming. He has benefited from a .231 opposing BABIP this year, which is well below his career mark and well below league average. He has racked up more strikeouts despite only a small increase in swinging strikes, and his batted ball profile remains underwhelming. Vegas doesn’t believe in him, either, as Houston has the second highest implied team total on the slate — behind only the Yankees. I am all over the Houston offense serving up that regression on an ice cold platter this evening. Where do we start? Alex Bregman makes sense as the priority target in all formats. While his numbers have lagged a bit against lefties so far this season, we can attribute almost all of that to sample size. In his career, Bregman has a wOBA close to .400 against LHP, and he has an impressive profile that includes more walks than strikeouts and lofty power marks
Underpriced Right Now
Luke Weaver has a fly ball lean and an iffy batted ball profile, which leaves him susceptible to power bats. He is relatively splits-neutral, so it’s simply a matter of finding the best pop in the lineup with Atlanta. Since the start of last year, Freddie Freeman has a .381 wOBA and .200 ISO with an 11% walk rate against RHP, so he would be my preferred cash game choice, and I’ve tagged him as an elite cash game play at his current salary.
Nicely Value Priced
Injuries have been a problem for Michael Wacha this year, and so have the walks. So many walks. His walk rate ballooned to just over 10% last year, and while we can dismiss some of that as variance, he’s now up to over 14% this year. That’s too much nibbling. He also misses in the middle of the zone too much, which cost him with a grand slam to a light hitting third string catcher in his last start against the Cubs. The strikeouts are reasonable and his batted ball profile looks better this year, but the walks are just a big problem. I do like Gregory Polanco as a value; now that he is healthy again, he is simply under-priced for his role as the #3 hitter in this offense, and Wacha has had some hard hit issues with LHBs.
Start of LAA-DET will be delayed due to rain Thursday
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Tigers have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of pitchers like Felix Pena not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes this contest will begin and finish following the initial rain delay.
As reported by: the Detroit Tigers via Twitter
The Only Attackable Arm
There are a lot of good offenses facing good pitchers tonight, leaving us in a tricky situation for stacking. While the Pirates are not the most exciting team on this slate, the bats are not expensive, and they are facing the most attackable pitcher on the slate in Michael Wacha. Wacha has a terribly high 14.8% walk rate this season, leading to a 5.17 ERA and 5.14 SIERA. Dating back to last season, he has allowed 41% hard hits to lefties and 38% hard hits to righties along with average at best strikeouts and the shaky control. The Pirates are one of my top stacks tonight, starting with Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and Josh Bell.
Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell
The Only Power Here
Catcher is a wasteland tonight, but there is one standout, and hopefully the high price tag on Gary Sanchez will keep the ownership in check. Seattle’s Mike Leake is a low strikeout pitcher, who has fallen all the way down to 13% K against righties so far this season. Historically he’s been able to get ground balls to righties, but even that hasn’t held up so far in 2019. Sanchez is punishing the ball this season, in 79 PA against right-handed pitching, he has a .408 ISO on a huge 55% hard hit rate with 62% fly balls.