DFS Alerts
E-Rod Will Be Chalky But Has Nice Matchup
Given the distinct lack of pitching options tonight, it’s not a bad idea to play Eduardo Rodriguez tonight and eat the chalk. Rodriguez is probably overpriced given his inability to work deep into games, but has a nice matchup and solid K upside (25.2% K rate this year). Rodriguez peripherals and underlying metrics in 2019 are very consistent with his 2017-2018 numbers, giving some confidence that we know what we’re getting. He faces the White Sox tonight who have a 99 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate vs. LHP in 2019. They have a below average .307 xwOBA over the last 10 days, and have just 2 hitters who have an xwOBA above .315 vs. LHP since 2018 (Jose Abreu, James Mccann). E-Rod will have the benefit of a plus pitch-framer in Christian Vasquez and a pitcher-friendly ump in D.J. Reyburn. The White Sox have a 3.89 implied line vs. E-Rod and the Red Sox tonight.
Yonny Chirinos a Great Value Saturday
Chirinos would have been a solid play as a long reliever tonight, but given the news that he will now be starting he has even more value at just $6.8k on Draftkings and $7.6k on Fanduel, albeit with likely increased ownership. Chirinos has a solid 3.94 SIERA and 17.4 K-BB% with a .314 xwOBA allowed on the year. He’ll face an Orioles offense that has just an 87 wRC+ and 21.6% K rate vs. RHP in 2019. The Orioles lineup tonight will have just 2 hitters who have an xwOBA above .320 vs. RHP since 2018. Chirinos will have the benefit of pitcher-friendly umpire Lance Barrett. He’ll also have a good shot at getting a W given the Rays are -175 favorites Saturday night. The Orioles have a 3.89 implied line vs. Chirinos and the Orioles.
Mets Could Be Sneaky Vs. Gio
The Mets face Gio Gonzalez in Miller Park tonight with a 4.35 implied total that feels a tad low. Gonzalez showed strong signs of decline in 2018, posting his highest SIERA (4.73) since 2008, his highest xwOBA (.334) since Statcast originated in 2015, and showed a fastball that averaged less than 90 MPH. After struggling to land a job throughout the offseason, Gonzalez’s velo was down about 1 MPH in his first start. He started to show some vulnerability vs. RHB in 2018 with a .333 xwOBA compared to a .295 xwOBA vs. LHB. Pete Alonso (.462 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), JD Davis (.413), and Wilson Ramos (.397) are all RHB with nice success vs. LHP. Jeff McNeil (.396), Robby Cano (.354) and Michael Conforto (.329) have also had solid success vs. LHP and could certainly be worth a shot in stacks. Cano has been the Mets’ hottest hitter with a .389 xwOBA over the past 10 days.
Other tagged players: J.D. Davis, Wilson Ramos, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, Gio Gonzalez Reds In Good Spot for Another Offensive Blowup
I wrote up the Reds yesterday as a team that has started slow and under-performed expectations, but should still score some runs in a good matchup, especially with Nick Senzel getting called up. Their hitters are available at a discount now given the early season struggles, and it seems that many of them are snapping out of the early season slumps. After getting to Tyler Beede last night they’ll face Dereck Rodriguez tonight, who has a 3.13 ERA in 149 career innings but has been greatly aided by making half his starts in AT&T Park. A closer look at his numbers reveals a 4.51 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA and 40% hard contact rate for his career. Rodriguez has a slightly higher xwOBA vs. LHB, but I’d feel comfortable targeting him with hitters from either side of the plate. Joey Votto (.397 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Jesse Winker (.382), Yasiel Puig (.348), Eugenio Suarez (.346) and Nick Senzel (149 wRC+ in AAA in 2018) are all great options tonight. Al Reds’ hitters are available for $3.5k or less on Fanduel and $4.3k or less on Draftkings. Winker has been their hottest hitter with a .403 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Joey Votto has a .351 xwOBA over the past 10 days despite his recent struggles and should be played with confidence given his leadoff spot in the order and track record of success. The Reds have a 4.43 implied line vs. Rodriguez and the Giants Saturday night.
Other tagged players: Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig, Dereck Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel Giants Lineup Has Value and Upside
The Giants face Tanner Roark in Great American Ball Park Saturday night in what looks to be a nice spot despite a 4.07 implied total. Giants hitters get a significant park upgrade moving from their spacious AT&T Park to GABP, and face a mediocre pitcher in Roark who has a 4.35 xFIP since 2017. He has a 5.11 xFIP and an ugly .384 xwOBA allowed on the year with his new team. Roark is more vulnerable vs. lefties with a .343 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2017 but a .303 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB. Joe Panik (.334 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018, batting 1st), Mike Gerber (154 wRC+ in AAA this year, batting 2nd), Brandon Belt (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP since ’18, batting 4th). Brandon Crawford (.302, batting 6th) and Steven Duggar (.250, batting 8th) are all the left-handed options in the Giants lineup. Buster Posey (.331) will bat 3rd at just $3.8k on Draftkings and is certainly in play despite being a RHB. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .438 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Especially on Fanduel, Giants hitters are priced down despite the park upgrade and favorable matchup. All hitters are available for under $2.9k on Fanduel and under $4.2k on Draftkings. The Giants will also have a hitter-friendly umpire in Jordan Baker.
Other tagged players: Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Michael Gerber, Steven Duggar, Tanner Roark Bassitt Gets a Nice Matchup Saturday Night
Chris Bassitt is quietly a 3.67 ERA pitcher in the majors over 203 innings, but with a 4.51 xFIP. His .304 xwOBA allowed for his career suggests that he is good at inducing soft contact, which estimators like xFIP have a hard time accounting for. Bassitt has mostly lacked K upside through his career with a 18.7% K rate, but does have a 34% K rate in 2019, albeit in just 12 innings pitched. He also has just a .215 xwOBA and 2.93 xFIP to start the year. Tonight he gets a matchup in pitcher-friendly PNC Park vs. the Pirates, who have just an 84 wRC+ on the year with a 20.8% K rate vs. RHP. The Pirates also have a 27th ranked .281 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Bassitt will have pitcher-friendly umpire Gabe Morales calling balls and strikes. The Pirates have a 3.75 implied line vs. Bassitt and the A’s tonight.
Sneaky Stack
Texas should fly under the radar today, especially after getting shut out by the Blue Jays yesterday. The lefty Thomas Pannone will draw the spot start out of the bullpen. This season, Pannone is giving up a 49% fly ball rate and a 36% hard hit rate. Most of the power bats for the Rangers are left handed bats, but I can’t see Pannone going deep into the game and they only have one other lefty in the bullpen. If they can get to him early I do like this spot for guys like Andrus, Odor, Pence, and Gallo.
Sneaky Stack
Texas should fly under the radar today, especially after getting shut out by the Blue Jays yesterday. The lefty Thomas Pannone will draw the spot start out of the bullpen. This season, Pannone is giving up a 49% fly ball rate and a 36% hard hit rate. Most of the power bats for the Rangers are left handed bats, but I can’t see Pannone going deep into the game and they only have one other lefty in the bullpen. If they can get to him early I do like this spot for guys like Andrus, Odor, Pence, and Gallo.
Sneaky Stack
\Texas should fly under the radar today, especially after getting shut out by the Blue Jays yesterday. The lefty Thomas Pannone will draw the spot start out of the bullpen. This season, Pannone is giving up a 49% fly ball rate and a 36% hard hit rate. Most of the power bats for the Rangers are left handed bats, but I can’t see Pannone going deep into the game and they only have one other lefty in the bullpen. If they can get to him early I do like this spot for guys like Andrus, Odor, Pence, and Gallo.
Sneaky Stack
Texas should fly under the radar today, especially after getting shut out by the Blue Jays yesterday. The lefty Thomas Pannone will draw the spot start out of the bullpen. This season, Pannone is giving up a 49% fly ball rate and a 36% hard hit rate. Most of the power bats for the Rangers are left handed bats, but I can’t see Pannone going deep into the game and they only have one other lefty in the bullpen. If they can get to him early I do like this spot for guys like Andrus, Odor, Pence, and Gallo.
Power One Off
Brandon Belt is a one off in tournaments that I really like today. We get him in a much better ball park for hitters against Tanner Roark. Roark might see some ownership on DK because of his cheap price. Belt against righties this season has a 315 ISO, 418 wOBA and a 61% fly ball rate. I like him across all sites but Fanduel especially where he is only 2900.
Low Owned Bat
Pete Alonso is another one off I really like today. He is priced up across most sites which should keep his ownership down. His numbers vs. Lefties this season are ridiculous; posting a 645 ISO, 604 wOBA, 53% fly ball rate, and a 60% hard hit rate. Gio Gonzolas should be popluar today with people looking for cheap pitchers to get Coors players in their lineup, so I do like this play in tournaments.
Looking For The K Upside
Rich Hill against the Padres is a matchup I will be targeting today in tournaments. Rich Hill looked decent in his first start, giving up only one earned run while striking out six batters. Hill gets a park shift advantage against a lineup with undisciplined hitters. If his curveball is working I could see him racking up the strikouts in this matchup.
It's All About the Value
I know Joe Panik is nothing exciting from a DFS perspective, but he’s leading off, he’s cheap, he’s hitting the ball well right now, and the Reds are throwing a low strikeout pitcher out there in Tanner Roark tonight. The Reds also used all of their good bullpen arms in yesterday’s extra inning shootout. Panik could be looking at five at bats here, and he’s a strong value in all formats given the layout of this slate.
Taking Advantage of Splits
The 2019 numbers for Lance Lynn are very much hit or miss, but I don’t expect him to have any long-term success pitching in the hitter-friendly park in Arlington. His career splits are also very wide, as he has allowed a .344 career wOBA to LHBs, and he also allows more fly balls and more hard contact to lefties. I am not sold on his 2019 data indicating reverse splits, as that is almost certainly related to sample size at this point. The problem is that Toronto doesn’t bring a lot of left handed thump to the table. For that reason, I am not high on the full stack here, but I can certainly get on board with a one-off power lefty. Enter Justin Smoak. He has a .370 wOBA and .250 ISO against RHP since the start of last year. Combine that with the matchup and park shift tonight, and you have all the makings of an elite first base option.