DFS Alerts
The Best of a Thin SP #2 Group
Gio Gonzalez was re-signed by the Brewers a few weeks ago when they decided to move Corbin Burnes to the bullpen, and that opened up a rotation spot. Gonzalez is nothing sexy from a DFS perspective, but tonight’s pitching gets thin in a hurry. There are also a lot of great spots for offense on this slate. On sites where you have to take two pitchers, it’s a priority to go cheap with the second choice. That’s where Gonzalez has some value. He faced this same Mets team last weekend and held them to two runs over five innings, and a similar performance would work tonight if he can add some strikeouts. He should also be allowed to throw a few more pitches after getting to 82 in that start. The Mets are scuffling mightily at the plate right now, having failed to top five runs in a game in a full week. It’s not fun to click the button, but Gio is the most logical SP #2 option tonight.
Racking Up The Strikeouts
Since the start of 2018, the White Sox have a team strikeout rate that is 2.3% higher than any other team in baseball against left-handed pitching. There are a lot of free swingers in this lineup, and it’s a great landing spot for Rodriguez. E-Rod has bad surface numbers this year, but he has been victimized by a high BABIP that will eventually normalize. His advanced metrics are solid, and he still owns a 25% strikeout rate. Chris Sale got on track against these White Sox last night; expect Rodriguez to do the same today.
An Elite Point Per Dollar Play
J.D. Martinez is the obvious answer as the top bat on DraftKings where his price is far too cheap at $4,500, but I like Martinez on all sites and in all game formats this evening. He is absolutely locked in right now with six hits over his last two games, and it’s only a matter of time before the power surge occurs. He owns a career .397 wOBA and .269 ISO against left-handed pitching and should feast against Manny Banuelos and the White Sox bullpen tonight.
Dominant Against Southpaws
J.D. Martinez has posted back-to-back three hit games and gets another favorable matchup on Saturday night against Manny Banuelos in Chicago. Banuelos has a 2.70 ERA through 20 IP this season but is the owner of a 4.70 SIERA which indicates he’s running a bit pure in terms of run prevention. Martinez has simply dominated left-handed pitching throughout his career to the tune of a 152 wRC+ and .269 ISO and is underpriced for this matchup (WAAAAY underpriced on DraftKings).
Littered With K's
Eduardo Rodriguez will look to follow up Chris Sale’s dominant performance with a gem of his own as the southpaw toes the rubber against the White Sox in Chicago. Rodriguez had a slow start to the season but has settled in nicely and his 6.16 ERA is deceiving, striking out at least six hitters in each of his last four starts. ERod has a 25.2% strikeout rate this season which should play well against a White Sox lineup that is littered with K’s. ALL nine of Chicago’s hitters in their current projected lineup posted strikeout rates north of 22% last season against LHP while six had strikeout rates north of 25%.
Start of OAK-PIT will be delayed due to rain Friday
The start of the matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday evening will be delayed due to a batch of storms approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Joe Musgrove not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects the game to play through upon the conclusion of this initial delay.
As reported by: Dejan Kovacevic via Twitter
Brewers Stack In Play Tonight
Brewers stacks have been a popular play early on in the year, and for good reason. But with their lineup missing top hitter Christian Yelich, and many other higher totals on the board, Brewers’ hitters could see depressed ownership Friday night. They will matchup with Steven Matz, who has actually been solid besides one major blowup. Still, Matz has a tougher time vs. RHB with a .327 xwOBA since 2017 compared to a .292 xwOBA vs. LHB. The Brewers will have 7 righties in their lineup tonight, and plenty of guys who are great hitters vs. LHP. Ryan Braun (.425 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Lorenzo Cain (.373), Jesus Aguilar (.372), Yasmani Grandal (.349) and Mike Moustakas (.331) are all great options tonight. Hernan Perez (.316) is a nice value play at just $3.7k. Jesus Aguilar has been the hottest hitter of the bunch with a .555 xwOBA over the past 10 days, and is just $3.8k on DK due to his slow start to the year. The Brewers will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire in Dana DeMuth tonight in addition to hitter-friendly Miller Park. They carry a 4.49 implied line vs. Matz and the Mets Friday night.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Yasmani Grandal
Gausman Has Shown Improvement, Gets Great Matchup Tonight
Kevin Gausman is another pitcher who has seemingly made changes in 2019. All Gausman’s pitches have shown an increased spin rate. Though he has a 4.80 ERA, Gausman’s .296 xwOBA allowed would easily be the best of his career. Gausman’s 19.2% K-BB and 27.5% K rate would both also be career highs, and his xFIP of 3.83 and SIERA of 3.83 are further proof that he is pitching better than the ERA suggests. Tonight, Gausman faces a weak Marlins lineup in pitcher-friendly Marlins park. The Marlins have just a .281 xwOBA over the past 10 days, with a 73 wRC+ and 27.1K% vs. RHP on the year. The Marlins have just one hitter (Curtis Granderson) in their lineup tonight with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .330 since 2018. The Marlins have just a 3.56 implied line against Gausman and the Braves Friday. Gausman is very affordable as he’s under $8.5k on both major sites, but will likely be a pretty chalky play.
Bieber a Nice Play Vs. Struggling Offense
Bieber’s main criticism in 2018 was that he stayed in the zone TOO much, possibly walking too few hitters and giving hitters decent pitches to hit despite being ahead often in counts. This led to an ERA (4.55) that was much higher than his estimators (3.30 xFIP, 3.45 SIERA). So far in 2019 Bieber has nearly doubled his walk rate, lowered his zone % about 8 points, and his ERA (3.68) is now outperforming his estimators (4.21 xFIP, 3.88 SIERA) with an improved K rate of 27.6%. Bieber does have some troubling trends, his hard hit rate actually increased this year from 43.9% to 48.7%, while also seeing his GB rate decrease and his FB rate increase. Statcast gives Bieber a .347 xwOBA allowed, which is 30 points higher than 2018. It is still unclear if Bieber’s changes in 2019 are positive for his long-term outlook, but we do know Bieber is a talented young arm with great K upside who gets a nice matchup tonight. Bieber faces the Mariners at home tonight, who have really struggled of late after a hot start to the year. The Mariners have a 28th ranked .279 xwOBA over the past 10 days. They do have a 116 wRC+ on the year, but with a 25% K rate and plenty of hitters who have arguably performed well above expectation. Working in Bieber’s favor tonight are his heavy platoon splits (.273 wOBA allowed vs. RHP, .372 allowed vs. LHB in his career) as 5 of 9 Seattle hitters are righties tonight. At just $8k on Draftkings, Bieber is a good bet to hit value and has plenty of upside given his 27.6% K rate. The Mariners have a 3.92 implied line vs. Bieber and the Indians tonight.
Reds Could Snap Out of Offensive Funk Tonight
Many hitters in the Reds’ lineup has vastly underperformed their preseason projections. Tonight, they get a great matchup at home vs. Tyler Beede, who had a 7.05 ERA and 5.3 K-BB% in AAA last year. Though Beede has looked better in 2019 (1.99 ERA / 3.76 xFIP in 23 AAA innings) his overall numbers in the minors are underwhelming and he is certainly a pitcher to target tonight. Despite a nice matchup in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, all Reds hitters are $4.1k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Jesse Winker. Winker is still a good play with a .383 xwOBA vs. RHP since ’18. Joey Votto leads off and has mashed RHP since 2018 with a .399 xwOBA. Highly regarded prospect Nick Senzel makes his MLB debut tonight, batting 2nd at just $3.8k. He had a 149 wRC+ in AAA last year but had struggled so far this year with just a 77 wRC+ before getting the call up. Yasiel Puig bats 4th and carries a .349 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018. Derek Dietrich (.316 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) and Tucker Barnhart (.306) are also in play lower in the Reds’ order.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, Derek Dietrich, Tucker Barnhart, Yasiel Puig, Tyler Beede Rays In Great Spot with Highest Implied Total Tonight
The Rays are in Baltimore Friday night to face Dan Straily, who has had a rough start to the year with a 7.04 xFIP, 2.3 K-BB%, 3.38 HR/9 and .405 xwOBA allowed. Straily has long been a fly ball pitcher (46.1% career FB rate) but is giving up an ugly 53.5% mark this year, as well as a 14.1 Barrel%, way up from his 7.6% career average. Straily’s platoon splits are close to even for his career and he can be targeted with hitters from both side of the plate tonight. Brandon Lowe (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Tommy Pham (.371), Ji-Man Choi (.378) and Yandy Diaz (.352) make up the top 4 hitters for the Rays Friday night and are all great bets for value and upside. Nate Lowe (155 wRC+ in AAA this year) bats 5th and comes with a discount compared to the rest of the Rays’ top hitters. Mike Zunino is under $4k and has shown decent pop vs. RHP since 2018 with a .314 mark, he also has a .420 xwOBA over the last 10 days. The Rays will also have the benefit of a very friendly hitters’ umpire in Bill Welke.
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Nathaniel Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Mike Zunino, Dan Straily Eickhoff Has Shown Improvements
Jared Eickhoff has enjoyed a great start to 2019, posting a 2.12 ERA / 3.39 xFIP with a 23.1 K-BB% and just a .190 xwOBA which is in the top 1% of the league. Eickhoff seems to have ditched his sinker, which was his worst pitch back in 2017 during his last full season. He’s throwing a new four-seamer that actually has shown slightly decreased velocity, but a much-improved spin rate (2399 RPM this year, 2224 RPM in ’17). The new four seamer has a Whiff% that has increased 3 points and a Put Away% that has increased 20 percentage points compared to 2017. Eickhoff has also shown vastly improved spin rate on his curve (227 RPM increase) and his slider (287 RMP increase) which has led to an xwOBA allowed under .150 for both pitches. Eickhoff is just $7.4k on Draftkings tonight ($8.6k on Fanduel) and is facing the Nats at home, who have a watered-down lineup without Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman. They could also potentially be without Juan Soto as he was scratched yesterday with back spasms. The Nationals as a team have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs. RHP on the year, and currently have a 3.98 implied line vs. Eickhoff and the Phillies. Eickhoff will have a good shot at getting a W as the Phillies are currently -175 to win Friday night.
Justin Turner still smashes LHP (155 wRC+, .214 ISO last calendar year), remains reasonably priced
Eric Lauer allows too much contact in the zone (91.5%) and maybe slightly too much hard contact overall (9.2% Barrels/BBE). Otherwise, he’s been reasonably useful for the Padres to this point. However, he has had issues with RHBs (.332 wOBA, 41 Hard%, 35.8 GB% last calendar year) giving some value to a few Dodger bats, who hit LHP extremely well. Enrique Hernandez (132 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) should be in the leadoff spot again. Justin Turner (155 wRC+, .214 ISO) is still just $4K on DraftKings. David Freese (145 wRC+, .185 ISO) is still making a living hitting LHP.
Other tagged players: Eric Lauer, Enrique Hernandez, David Freese
The Brewers have a 21.9 HR/FB vs LHP
Steven Matz has allowed three runs over 13 innings since blowing up in Philadelphia, but still has just an 8.8 SwStr%, .237 BABIP and 13.4% Barrels/BBE. Not only does he suffer a park downgrade in Milwuakee, but they have a 21.9 HR/FB vs LHP, despite their failures against him over the weekend. Though Matz has no discernable split by wOBA over the last calendar year (1 point of difference), RHBs have a 38.5 Hard% and 42.9 GB% (LHBs 20% and 66.7%). The Brewers have some potentially lethal RH bats that should be of some daily fantasy use here, including Lorenzo Cain (145 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), who should be able to run on Matz, Ryan Braun (110 wRC+, .256 ISO, 55.2 Hard%), Yasmani Grandal (113 wRC+, .200 ISO, 52.1 Hard%) and Jesus Aguilar (116 wRC+, .266 ISO), who is finally heating up (149 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days). Despite the positive run environment, none of these bats are priced above $4.3K on DK or $3.4K on FD.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Steven Matz, Yasmani Grandal Matt Boyd has utilized a release point adjustment to increase spin and K rate (31.8%)
Matt Boyd has utilized a simple change in arm angle to add spin to his pitches (four-seamer from 2282 to 2402). Without increasing his velocity, he’s been able to increase his whiff rate from 17.9% to 26.1% on the pitch he likes to locate up in the zone before a downward diving slider. The results have been the top SwStr rate on the board (15.6%) tonight, along with the second highest strikeout rate (31.8%). Batters have just an 80% Zone Contact rate against him. Boyd has managed the contact that has been made well too (31.1% 95+ mph EV), resulting in a .257 xwOBA that’s third best on the board among those with more than three starts. Boyd brings a 25.2 K-BB% into his start against the Royals, who have just a 75 wRC+, 24.7 K%, and 10.3 HR/FB against LHP in 2019. Cool temperatures in Detroit may give him an additional boost. While over $1K more on FanDuel, Boyd still costs a very reasonable $9.3K on DraftKings for this type of profile.