DFS Alerts
Despite an 18.7 K-BB%, Shane Bieber still struggles with hard contact (89.9 mph aEV)
Shane Bieber is still flashing some strong stuff (27.6 K%, 13.1 SwStr%, but his troubles with hard contact (89.9 mph aEV) have been a bit exacerbated by his sudden control issues this year (8.9 BB%). That’s nearly double his 4.7 BB% last season, which was higher than any of his minor league rates. The problem with this matchup is that LHBs truly smash him. They own a .369 wOBA, .357 xwOBA, 47.3 Hard% and 35.8 GB% against him over the last calendar year. The Mariners get a nice park upgrade here (though weather may have some negative impact on power) and have shown a surprising amount of left-handed power this season led by Dan Vogelbach (195 wRC+, .355 ISO, 52.1 Hard% vs last calendar year) and a rejuvenated Jay Bruce (90 wRC+, .190 ISO), who has already matched his entire 2018 HR total with nine. Omar Narvaez (140 wRC+, .185 ISO) seems a reasonable choice at an often difficult to fill position as well. With just a 3.92 implied run line, Seattle bats should come with low ownership numbers.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Omar Narvaez, Shane Bieber
Jerad Eickhoff has been missing more bats (30.8 K%) with elevated fastballs after ditching sinker
Jerad Eickhoff struggled in Colorado, but looked good in Miami. He’s impressed overall with a 30.8 K%, 13.1 SwStr%, and 72.7 Z-Contact%. He’s yet to allow a Barrel with an 85.6 mph aEV, leading to a .190 xwOBA. The Nationals have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP. Eickhoff appears to be elevating his four-seamer more and, subsequently, both his curve and slider are above a 40% whiff rate according to Statcast, while he’s apparently ditched a useless sinker. He’s had a double digit SwStr% in all three outings this year. These are just some small sample results, but he costs a reasonable $7.4K on DraftKings against an offense that’s been struggling without all of their top bats healthy.
Brandon Lowe (140 wRC vs RHP last calendar year) is a top bat in a great spot (Dan Straily 14.1% Barrels/BBE)
Dan Straily has a 9.4 SwStr% that almost matches his 10.3 K%, but his 43.1 Z-O-Swing% is second worst on the board and batters are launching his pitches. His .405 xwOBA is second worst on the board. His 14.1% Barrels/BBE and 52.1% 95+ mph EV are worst. There may be some weather headed for Baltimore, but the current forecast appears to improve HR chances (Premium subscribers have access to Weather Edge) in an already power friendly park. This is such a friendly matchup that despite the game at Coors tonight, the Rays currently own the top implied run line on the board (5.79). Brandon Lowe (140 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Tommy Pham (123 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (145 wRC+, .240 ISO) are among the top overall bats on the board tonight and all are above a 140 wRC+ over the last week. Batters from either side of the plate are above a 40% hard hit rate and .340 xwOBA against Straily over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi, Tommy Pham, Dan Straily James Paxton has the K rate (36.2%), but has been prone to hard contact (45.6% 95+ mph EV)
James Paxton failed to qualify for a quality start last time out in San Francisco (5.2 IP, 3 ER), but has struck out at least eight in four of his last five now. His 36.2 K% is easily best on the board tonight and his SIERA is still half a run below his 3.38 ERA. Paxton also continues to have some issues with hard contact (45.6% 95+ mph EV, 25.3 LD%, .355 BABIP), which may be partially due to an extremely high 42 Z-O-Swing% (batters are swinging at strikes, not so many balls). But Paxton also continues to generate lots of popus (15.2 IFFB%, 32.9 GB%) and generate lots of whiffs in the strike zone (80.8 Z-Contact%), while keeping the ball in the park (9.2 HR/FB), though that latter point may be a source of concern in the future should the contact profile remain what it is. The elite swing and miss ability certainly makes him a high upside arm on this slate, but it’s not a great matchup. The Twins do have a 24.4 K% vs LHP, but also a 117 wRC+ and 18.8 HR/FB. As always, Paxton exhibits a reverse split, yet RHBs still retain a higher HR/FB rate against him (10.6% to 8.5% career). Those numbers are likely suppressed from pitching in Seattle for years. Further good news for Paxton is that cooler temperatures in New York could have a negative effect on the run environment (Premium subscribers have access to Weather Edge and can see the exact numbers). The ending point is that Paxton is a major player on this board, but don’t be afraid to go contrarian and add in a Twins’ bat or two to GPP lineups. Nelson Cruz (155 wRC+, .289 ISO) and C.J. Cron (130 wRC+, .248 ISO) have had the most success against LHP over the last calendar year, but Eddie Rosario (121 wRC+, .186 ISO) has shown to be more than competent without the platoon advantage as well.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz He's What?
Joe Musgrove (26% DK) has been stellar to start the season with a 1.54 ERA (3.82 SIERA) and is somehow just $7,200 on DraftKings. Musgrove will take on a righty-heavy Oakland lineup at pitcher friendly PNC Park and has posted a healthy 24% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this year. Oakland’s projected lineup currently has six right-handed bats in it (plus pitcher spot), four of which posted strikeout rates north of 21.3% against right-handed pitching last season.
THICC
I’ll admit it, I’m a huge Vlad Jr. fan boy, but bias aside, his $2,900 price tag on FanDuel is too cheap. Vladdy has had some trouble transitioning to the bigs with an unexpected 28.6% strikeout rate through 21 plate appearances. Vlad will have the platoon advantage against Mike Minor at hitter friendly Globe Life Park. Despite a strong start to the season for Minor this is still a favorable power spot for the Rookie slugger and it would be unsurprising if he hit his first HR of his Big League career tonight.
Hitting Lefties Hard
It took him a while but Jesus Aguilar finally hit his first HR of the season last week. Aguilar went yard again in the same game and the following day putting his HR total at three for the season. Aguilar has hit lefties hard this season with a 50% hard-hit rate and has flashed a ton of power against southpaws for his career with a .223 ISO. The Brewers slugger is still underpriced due to his slow start to the season and draws a favorable home matchup against Mets lefty Steven Matz.
Load Them Up
The pricing on FD/Yahoo is making it tough for me to get away from the Tampa bats as my core plays tonight. You can go a lot of other directions in tournaments, but if building a cash game lineup or just one main tournament core, I am not interested in fading this team in Baltimore against Dan Straily. The fly balls from Straily play perfectly into Pham’s hands where he can take advantage of his 48% hard hits. He should have baserunners on all around him for all kinds of Run and RBI opportunities here.
Top Rookie Nick Senzel has struggled (77 wRC+ AAA), but debuts with 60 Future Value grade
Tyler Beede sees his first major league action in over a year, when he posted a 2.5 K-BB% over 7.2 innings for the Giants last April. While he’s struck out 34 of the 91 batters he’s faced at AAA this season, he continues to flash a double digit walk rate at almost every stop he’s made in the system and hasn’t previously seen a strikeout rate above 23% since Low A in 2014. The 25 year-old is no longer much of a prospect and, as he’s converted from a ground ball to a fly ball pitcher the last few years, could have some difficulty in a tough park in Cincinnati.
Beede isn’t the rookie everyone is excited to see in this game though. Nick Senzel is one of the top prospects in baseball and makes his debut for the home team tonight. Not available on FanDuel, he costs $3.8K on DraftKings out of the second slot in the lineup. While the numbers aren’t impressive this season (77 wRC+, .114 ISO), he arrives as the seventh best prospect in baseball and a 60 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He put up a 149 wRC+ (.199 ISO) in 193 AAA PAs last season and hasn’t previously been below 147 since rookie ball. Senzel could be used alone for salary relief and as part of a Cincinnati stack along with Joey Votto (131 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jesse Winker (133 wRC+, .207 ISO) against a pitcher who’s had control issues throughout his career.
Speed and Power for Price
Odor has had an uninspiring start to the season but once you factor in matchup, context, and positional scarcity he stands out as one of the top overall plays on the slate. Rougy isn’t an OBP guy but gives you plenty of power (.211 ISO vs RHP) and speed upside for his price tag. As long as Odor continues to bat atop the order for a Rangers team with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate (5.3) he’ll be one of my top targets on Friday night.
Site Specific Values
I want as much Tampa exposure as I can get tonight, and FD/Yahoo give us some extra access with low salaries on Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe. I’m happy with either or both, but I’ll start with the longer track record of Choi who has a .244 ISO against righties, while Dan Straily has allowed 45% hard hits and a .211 ISO to lefties since the start of 2018.
Best of the Best
Even with great looking spots in Colorado and Texas, the Rays facing Dan Straily in Baltimore come in as the high total team of the night. Straily has been absolutely brutal this season with just 10.3% strikeouts, allowing his usual extreme fly balls while doing nothing to limit hard contact. On top of that, the Orioles have one of the leagues worst bullpens behind him in a ballpark that is a huge step up for this Tampa team. I’ll start at the top with Brandon Lowe, who has a .229 ISO on 40% hard hits, and doesn’t have to worry about the strikeouts against Straily.
Just Too Cheap
The Red Sox may fly a little under the radar tonight with the clear top spots elsewhere, but DK/FDRFT have priced down the outfielders way too much for this matchup. Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez can be played in both cash games and tournaments at these salaries. Reynaldo Lopez is a fly ball pitcher back by a bad bullpen, and this newfoudn strikeout ability has come out of nowhere against bad opponents. Since the start of 2018, he has struck out just 18.1% of lefties while Beninendi has an 83% contact rate and a .364 wOBA. For pure home run upside, look to Martinez and his .262 ISO against righties.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez Rookie Pitcher Struggling Against Left-Handed Hitters
Saying Trent Thornton has had trouble with left-handed hitters this season is an understatement, as Thornton has allowed 4 HRs to lefties while facing only 60 batters, contributing to a .618 slugging percentage that is twice his slugging percentage (.309) allowed to righties. That sample size is small, but it’s a continuation of Thornton’s numbers from AAA last season, where he allowed a .782 OPS to left-handed hitters (compared to a .643 OPS mark to righties). The Rangers have a number of left-handed hitters that can take advantage, including Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, and Nomar Mazara, but the hitter I’ll be targeting the most, as either part of a stack or as a one-off hitter, is Joey Gallo.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor
Home Team Looks to Put Up Runs Tonight Against Young Pitcher
As discussed in my pitcher write-up, Tyler Beede has shown some upside at AAA this season, but he still had a 7.05 ERA with 10 HRs allowed in 74 innings at AAA last season. Cincinnati has a 4.5+ implied run total tonight at home, and I’ll be targeting the hitters at the top of the order, starting with Joey Votto (career .981 OPS against right-handed pitching), Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig, and Jesse Winker. I’ll also be paying attention to whether top prospect Nick Senzel makes his Reds debut tonight, for sites where Senzel is available.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel