DFS Alerts

Leap of Faith

Man, I know this is taking a leap of faith, but pitching is so bad on Monday that Sale is projecting as the top overall play on the slate even if he’s only pitching at ~ 75% capacity. Sale did see an uptick in velocity last game against the Yankees, and while he did allow four earned runs, he also saw his highest strikeout total of the season (6) and was able to miss some bats. The Tigers offense is not one to be afraid of as they currently sit last in the league with a 58 wRC+ versus left handed pitchers this season (small sample size alert). There’s also plenty of strikeout upside in this matchup as Detroit’s projected lineup has four hitters who posted strikeout rates north of 25% against LHP last season.

Pitch Count Is My Biggest Concern

I worry about a pitch count with a couple of the cheap pitchers I like tonight. Manny Banuelos has worked out of the pen for the White Sox this season and will be picking up his first start of the 2019 season. I would guess we see him throw in the 75 to 85 pitch range in this start if it’s going well. In 108.2 innings in AAA last season, he had a 12.1% swinging strike rate with a 27% strikeout rate. He certainly has the upside to pay off this price tag, and he draws an excellent matchup against Baltimore. The projected starting lineup has a .126 ISO with a .304 wOBA against a 22.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the start of 2018.

Contrarian Late Slate Stack

Most people will likely be targeting Mariners-Angels game that has by far the highest O/U on the board. Though the implied total of 3.34 doesn’t suggest it, the Reds might have some upside potential vs. Joey Lucchesi. Lucchesi’s overall numbers as a pitcher have been good (career 3.46 xFIP, 18.2 K-BB%) but he has significant platoon splits. Lucchesi allows a .339 xwOBA to RHB versus a .240 xwOBA vs. LHB for his career. The Reds have stacked their lineup with 8 righties to make things difficult for Lucchesi on Sunday. Eugenio Suarez (.394 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2017), Matt Kemp (.383) and Curt Casali (.359) have all mashed LHP over the last few years and are all under $4k on Draftkings. Jose Peraza (.303) leads off and always has SB upside. Yasiel Puig (.303) has been worse vs. LHP for his career but is batting 3rd in the order at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Jesse Winker has been the hottest Cincy hitter over the past 10 days with a .397 xwOBA but has a tough matchup given Lucchesi’s splits.

High Implied Totals on the Turbo Slate

Sunday’s 2 game turbo slate features Houston in Arlington vs. Shelby Miller at a 6.19 implied total, Philly vs. Jon Gray in Coors at a 5.02 total, and the Rockies vs. Jerad Eickhoff at 5.98 total.

Shelby Miller has been horrific this year with a 9.44 xFIP and -13.6 BB-K%. All Astros hitters are in play here in a great hitting environment against a starter that has looked lost on the mound. Both Carlos Correa and George Springer have an xwOBA above .425 over the last 10 days. Correa’s price has lagged behind the other ‘Stros despite enjoying a nice bounce back campaign so far in 2019.

Jon Gray has been solid with a 3.60 xFIP this year, which is about where he’s been for his career. There is no platoon advantage to be had with Gray as he has a .321 wOBA allowed vs. both LHB and RHB for his career. Towards the bottom of the Phillies’ lineup, Roman Quinn, Phill Gosselin and Andrew Knapp stand out as value guys and a good way to get cheap exposure to Coors. All the Phillies’ 1-5 hitters have an xwOBA greater than .320 over the last 10 days, but no hitter is above .400.

Jared Eickhoff is making his second start of 2019, he threw just 5 innings in 2018 due to injury. He is certainly someone we want to target as a guy that is still likely trying to shake off some rust. Eickhoff has been much worse vs. LHB in his career with a .362 wOBA against vs. LHB versus a .267 wOBA against vs. RHB. Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Ryan McMahon fit the bill as LHB and are in the top 5 in the order, each can be had for $5k or less on Draftkings. Tony Wolters is a lefty that is under $4k and fills a weak catcher spot on the slate. Ian Desmond and Garret Hampson are RHB but also under $4k and seem underpriced despite not having the platoon advantage.

Start of PHI-COL will be delayed due to rain Sunday

The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this contest aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall fantasy appeal, and as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, hitters from this game remain firmly in consideration since these showers should quickly clear out of Denver and the surrounding area.

Target this Terrible SP

Tyler Chatwood really has no business starting for any MLB team. He had a horrific 8.25 walks per 9 last year over 103.2 innings leading to a -2.1 K-BB% and a 6.28 SIERA. Though Chatwood has good velocity and limits flyballs and loud contact fairly well, you just can’t walk that many guys without giving up tons of runs. Chatwood is especially bad vs. LHB with a .360 xwOBA allowed since 2017 versus a .331 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB. Jarrod Dyson will lead off for the D-Backs today and will have huge stolen base upside given Chatwood’s propensity to allow baserunners. David Peralta (.342 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Adam Jones (.318), Eduardo Escobar (.327) and Ketel Marte (.312) are all options at the top of the D-backs’ order. Eduardo Escobar has been the hottest hitter of the bunch with a .404 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The D-backs have a 4.67 implied total today vs. Chatwood and the Cubs.

Cheap SP with K Upside

Trevor Richards has a nice matchup with the Washington Nationals today who are now without Anthony Rendon as well as Trea Turner. Richards gets the start at home where he has been much better in his young career (.293 wOBA allowed at home vs. .341 wOBA allowed away). Richards has heavy reverse splits (.286 wOBA vs. LHB, .344 vs. RHB) and will face only 3 LHB this afternoon vs. the Nationals. Still, the Nationals have the 6th highest K rate in the league at 25.5%. Richards has a career K rate of 9.12 per 9 and will have decent K upside at under $7.5k on both major sites in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. He’ll also have a plus pitcher framer behind the plate in Chad Wallach and a pitcher-friendly umpire in CB Bucknor. The Nats have a 3.91 implied line vs. Richards and the Marlins on Sunday.

Cheap Bats Available Vs. Bad Pitcher

Reynaldo Lopez is a career 5.33 xFIP pitcher who gives up a ton of flyballs (46.2% FB rate for career, 55.4% this year). Lopez’s calling card is his heater which has averaged 95.3 MPH for his career, but he’s seen that fastball velo drop down to 93.8 MPH this year, not a great sign for a pitcher who does not have any other decent pitches to work with. Lopez will face a Tigers lineup that isn’t great but has plenty of value bats throughout. With the exception of Nick Castellanos ($4.1k), all hitters in this lineup are under $4k on Draftkings despite the great matchup. Miguel Cabrera (.383 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Castellanos (.370), Niko Goodrum (.323), Jeimer Candelario (.280) and Josh Harrison (.278) are hitting in the top 5 of Detroit’s order. Niko Goodrum has seen the ball well recently with a .409 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Miguel Cabrera stands out as the best value with an obvious track record of mashing all pitching and a cheap price of $3.6k. He seems to have put the slow start to 2019 behind him with a .401 xwOBA over the past 10 days.

Just Too Cheap Across the Industry

Jose Abreu is under-priced on every site. Just play the man. This guy is a professional hitter and has been for a long time. He has historically hit lefties pretty well, and sits above a .200 ISO as well. I think he is one of if not the best value bat on the slate today, should be a staple in all formats.

A Value Pitcher Against a Low ISO team

Mr. Rodriguez is in now way a slam dunk here, but he does get a team that struggles with power. He has moderate strike out ability to begin the season (around 20%) and will keep the ball on the ground a bit. This should allow him to get through six innings with a few K’s along the way. If he can limit the damage a quality start should be in order and that should be enough to pay off the price tag today.

Cheap Bat in a Good Spot

Reynaldo Lopez is struggling against lefties so far this season. He is giving up roughly 40% so far this season, and for a guy that will be throwing mostly fast balls it’s a recipe for disaster. Niko Goodrum has a .235 iso against right handed pitching so far this year and a .481 iso against the velocity fastball that Lopez is throwing. I’m expecting a nice game from Goodrum as he looks to profile really well against Lopez.

Stack Up Those Power bats

With Houston and Coors on this 11 game slate I think the Twins could be over-looked today against Dylan Bundy. Bundy’s fly ball rate is around 56% this season and in Baltimore, which is a good hitters ball park, I could see some of these power bats for the Twins having success. In his first four starts he has given up 7 home runs, so I love the power bats for the twins especially Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, and Eddie Rosario.

Stack Up Those Power bats

With Houston and Coors on this 11 game slate I think the Twins could be over-looked today against Dylan Bundy. Bundy’s fly ball rate is around 56% this season and in Baltimore, which is a good hitters ball park, I could see some of these power bats for the Twins having success. In his first four starts he has given up 7 home runs, so I love the power bats for the twins especially Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, and Eddie Rosario.

Stack Up Those Power bats

With Houston and Coors on this 11 game slate I think the Twins could be over-looked today against Dylan Bundy. Bundy’s fly ball rate is around 56% this season and in Baltimore, which is a good hitters ball park, I could see some of these power bats for the Twins having success. In his first four starts he has given up 7 home runs, so I love the power bats for the twins especially Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, and Eddie Rosario.

All the Lefty bats

I will be targeting the Mets lefties today against Dakota Hudson. Hudson has struggled big time to start the season against left handed hitters giving up a 515 ISO, a 640wOBA, and a 57% hard hit rate. This is a very small sample but in two of his first three starts, he faced a very left handed power lineup in the Brewers and surrendered 10 runs while giving up 5 home runs in those two starts. This Mets team definitely has some good lefties to target in Cano, Conforto, and Nimmo in GPPs.