DFS Alerts
All the Lefty bats
I will be targeting the Mets lefties today against Dakota Hudson. Hudson has struggled big time to start the season against left handed hitters giving up a 515 ISO, a 640wOBA, and a 57% hard hit rate. This is a very small sample but in two of his first three starts, he faced a very left handed power lineup in the Brewers and surrendered 10 runs while giving up 5 home runs in those two starts. This Mets team definitely has some good lefties to target in Cano, Conforto, and Nimmo in GPPs.
All the Lefty bats
I will be targeting the Mets lefties today against Dakota Hudson. Hudson has struggled big time to start the season against left handed hitters giving up a 515 ISO, a 640wOBA, and a 57% hard hit rate. This is a very small sample but in two of his first three starts, he faced a very left handed power lineup in the Brewers and surrendered 10 runs while giving up 5 home runs in those two starts. This Mets team definitely has some good lefties to target in Cano, Conforto, and Nimmo in GPPs.
My Top SP
Archer gets a great matchup against the struggling Giants. Archer this year has been great with a 34% K rate while averaging 8 strikeouts in his first three starts. He has looked great to start the year and I see no reason why he shouldn’t have another great performance. His price on DK is too cheap and on FanDuel even though he is more expensive I still think he is a great play.
Upside Pitcher In GPPs
Colin McHugh is someone in tournaments I will be taking a shot with. If you’re looking for a 5% owned pitcher today I think McHugh will be that guy. He goes up against the Rangers in Arlington where Gerrit Cole surrendered 8 runs last night. Most people will look at that and just stay clear of McHough today, but this year McHough has a 31% K rate with only a 27% hard hit rate so he is really doing a good job of limiting the damage. It’s not the best matchup, but if you’re making multiple lineups I think he has just as much upside as all the other pitchers on the board today.
Stack Up The Home Run Hitters
While Dylan Bundy has K upside, he’s so home run prone that we should absolutely be looking at the Twins as a top stack or at the very least for one-off plays to home run hunt. Six of Bundy’s seven home runs have been against right-handed batters this season but over his last three seasons, he’s shown worse splits against lefties. This is a spot where I’m not so much worried about the handedness of the hitter, but their power upside. I love Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario and C.J. Cron in this spot.
Pitcher In Elite Form
His strikeout rate sits at 34.3%, which is way higher than his career rate of 25.9%. His SwStr% is currently at 13.8%, which would be his career high if the season ended today. Not only has he been in elite form, but he now gets a juicy matchup against a Giants team that has the 8th highest K% as a team (25.2%) and the lowest team wOBA in the majors (.260). The one blemish so far for Archer has been his issues with walks, as he’s allowed seven in his first 18 innings this season for a 10% BB%. In his career he’s been at a 7.8% BB%, so its likely he regresses closer to his career average as the season goes on. This also may not be an issue as the Giants rank dead last in baseball with a team 6.4% BB%. I absolutely love Archer in GPPs, and you can even consider Archer as your SP1 if you want to pay up for hitters.
Strikeout Artist Against Strikeout-Prone Team
This season, Strasburg sits on a 28.6% K%, right around his career average. He’s limiting hard contact (25.4%) and now gets to face a Marlins team that has the 3rd highest K% as a team this season (26.1%). The only blemish on Strasburg’s stats is his five homers allowed in 22.2 innings, but the Marlins have the lowest team ISO in the majors and Strasburg gets a huge ballpark shift in his favor with this game being in Miami. Strasburg is my choice for your SP1 in cash games if you can make it work.
Finally Locking In
I slightly prefer Archer on a points per dollar basis today, but I will have tons of exposure to both Paxton and Archer in all formats. They are a clear tier above the rest for me this afternoon. Paxton was a little hit or miss in his first few starts as a member of the Yankees, but he is coming off a dominant start against the Red Sox and still has a very good overall profile that includes a 3.22 SIERA, a 30+% strikeout rate, and a respectable batted ball profile. He can be utilized with confidence in a plus home matchup against a hit or miss Royals offense.
Ready To Get Hot
On DK, I will go with Charlie Blackmon as my top play on this Easter Sunday slate. He finally appears to be getting locked in, and he is capable of getting hot during this Colorado homestand. His career home splits are amazing with a wOBA well over .400, and he has six hits and two homers so far in this series. Fire him up with confidence against a mediore RHP in Eickhoff this afternoon.
Top Point Per Dollar Arm
I really like both Paxton and Archer today, but I will side with Archer as my top point per dollar option. His focus should be on point after his suspension, and he is coming off a really good outing in his last start against the Nationals. Today’s matchup is golden against a Giants team that has been abysmal offensively in the early going, with a .258 team wOBA (ranked last in MLB) and a .123 team ISO (ranked 27th). Archer has a 34% strikeout rate so far this year and should dominate today.
Another Elite Spot
After the demolition of the Orioles in yesterday’s doubleheader, the Twins now lead the league with a .361 team wOBA for the year, and they also have the highest team batting average in baseball. Throw in a 2nd place rank in team ISO and yet another matchup against a bad Orioles pitching staff, and you have the recipe for more fun today. I will highlight Eddie Rosario as my top play. The Twins are rolling right now, and Rosario had five hits and three home runs in yesterday’s double-header sweep of the Orioles. That now gives him five home runs in his last three games, and he is in another elite spot against Dylan Bundy on Sunday.
Cheap SP Option in Likely Low-Scoring Affair
Despite two non-ace starters in last nights matchup, the Padres and Reds combined for just 5 runs in 11 innings. Their matchup tonight projects for a similar result as both teams have just 3.5 implied runs. It is rare to find a starter whose opponent is projected for 3.5 runs or less under $8k on Draftkings, but Eric Lauer is just $7k tonight. Lauer has been serviceable with a 7.36 K/9, 2.05 BB/9 and 4.32 xFIP. The Reds have been pretty mediocre vs. LHP with a 84 wRC+ and the 6th worst K rate at 26.6%. Tonight they’ll be without their best hitter in Joey Votto. Their lineup has run cold of late, just one hitter in tonight’s lineup (Tucker Barnhart) has an xwOBA greater than .320 over the last 10 days. Lauer also gets to work with a pitcher friendly umpire in Chris Guccione. Lauer doesn’t have crazy upside but is way too cheap for this matchup and has a very good chance to hit value tonight.
Other tagged players: Tucker Barnhart
Value in Rox Lineup Despite Coors Pricing
Facing Aaron Nola in Coors field Friday, there are a decent amount of value options in the Rockies’ lineup, especially on Draftkings where pricing has been tight. The matchup won’t be easy facing Aaron Nola, but Nola hasn’t looked like himself so far this year with a 7.45 ERA / 4.85 SIERA and just a 9.2 K-BB%. Mark Reynolds is batting 5th and is just $3.7k on DK, Reynolds had a 112 wRC+ last year and is still a plenty serviceable option. Raimel Tapia will follow him in the order as is the same price. Tapia is just a 73 wRC+ hitter in the bigs but has flashed upside in the minors and has SB upside. Garret Hampson will hit 7th at just $3.4k and is similar to Tapia with limited pop but SB upside. They are all good bets to hit value given the environment and not-so-tough matchup with a struggling Nola. Even David Dahl ($4.7k, career 115 wRC+) and Ryan McMahon ($4.5k, 103 wRC+ this year) feel a tad underpriced as top of the order guys in Coors. The Rox have a 4.85 implied total tonight vs. Nola.
Other tagged players: Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, David Dahl, Ryan McMahon, Aaron Nola Dodgers in a Nice Spot
Chase Anderson is making his first start of the season vs. the Dodgers after being relegated to the bullpen to start the year. He wasn’t very good last year (4.79 xFIP, ,330 xwOBA allowed) and doesn’t figure to go to deep into the game. This will mean extra plate appearances for Dodger hitters vs. the Brewers’ bullpen that has allowed an unimpressive 4.50 ERA / 4.14 xFIP. Joc Pederson (.325 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Justin Turner (.385), Corey Seager (.376), A.J. Pollock (.334) and Cody Bellinger (.328) make up the top 5 hitters in the order for LA. Cody Bellinger (.580 xwOBA last 10 days) has stayed hot and could hit value even with a hefty price. Corey Seager and A.J. Pollock can be had at a discount due to their slow starts, and have shown signs of turning it around as each has an xwOBA > .320 over the last 10 days. The Dodgers have a juicy 5.12 implied total in Miller Park tonight.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, Chase Anderson Nice Contact Quality
While Andrelton Simmons may not hit 50 home runs per game, he will certainly be an on base machine. This is what we are expecting tonight as he faces off with Mr. Kikuchi. He has a 91.4% contact rate and of course is striking out at a very low clip. Simmons has proven over a number of seasons that he’s going to play great defense, and be extremely disciplined at the plate. For fantasy purposes, we don’t care about the defense, but hitting is good too. (I believe I got that from the Legend Cheeseisgood)
