DFS Alerts
DET-BOS postponed due to rain Monday
The game between the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox on Monday night has been postponed due to rain forecasted throughout the remainder of the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Tuesday, April 22 at 1:05 pm EST as part of a day-night split doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Monday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Chris Cotillo via Twitter
Jekyll and Hyde
Steven Matz has had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season, with two eight strikeout games followed by a start where he didn’t record a single out against this very same Phillies team. Matz has a strong 26% strikeout rate through four starts but is getting hit hard, with a 42.6 Hard%. Like his counterpart, Matz is also poor in regards to stolen base prevention which gives the Phillies some stolen base upside to pair with their power potential.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, Maikel Franco, Bryce Harper
Sneaky, Sneaky
I simply do not trust Jake Arrieta’s early season success. Not only is he somebody that I would avoid rostering, he’s also someone that I would consider targeting if looking for a “sneaky” stack with low expected ownership. SlateIQ has the Mets tied for the seventh lowest total ownership on the slate. New York has some powerful left handed bats in their lineup and also have some power on the right side with Pete Alonso who currently leads the league with 15 Barrels – tied with Christian Yelich. The Mets don’t have a ton of speed but it is notable that Arrieta has historically struggled with stolen base prevention, which would give someone like Keon Broxton or Amed Rosario a boost in value at sub-1% ownership if they were in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Keon Broxton, Amed Rosario, Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano Dominant numbers lead to a well deserved opportunity
Yonny Chirinos will take the mound to start the game for the third time this year. He’s faced at least 17 batters and thrown at least 67 pitches in three of his four total outings this year, but no more than 22 and 88. He’s impressively missed bats on 11.7% of pitches this year, resulting in a 27.1 K% (21.4 K-BB%) in addition to an 84.7 mph aEV that’s best on the board. Suffice to say, he’s earned this opportunity. The domed environment in Tampa Bay is pitcher friendly, but the Royals have shown some offensive competency this season (107 wRC+, 12.5 K-BB%). None the less, Chirinos appears a superior value below $7.5K on either site tonight.
Significant velocity increase and a very favorable matchup
On the surface, the downfall of Chris Sale continued in the Bronx in his most recent outing. He allowed four more runs in five innings. However, his swinging strike rate was up to 12.9% in the outing, as he struck out six of 23 batters and, much more significantly, his average velocity was well up, back above 95 mph for the first time this year. It is a concern that his hard hit rate was above 35% for the third time in four starts, but that’s a tough place to pitch even if the Yankees were lacking a few bats. The question now is whether players can pass up the potential value in a price point still below $9K in a matchup against the Tigers (58 wRC+, 17.9 K-BB%, 6.3 HR/FB vs LHP) under pitcher favorable weather conditions. The answer is that if we think there’s even a reasonable chance that Sale might be rebounding here, players must have at least some exposure to him in a great matchup. How much should depend on ownership projections, which currently predict him to be quite popular (Premium subscription required) and Kevin’s updated weather forecast (currently at Orange) this evening.
Potential top pitcher on the board at depressed ownership
As we all expected after just a month, Matt Boyd (2.96 ERA, 2.83 SIERA, 36 K%, 16.1 SwStr%, board best 78 Z-Contact%, 85.8 mph aEV) is the more dominant and expensive pitcher in a matchup with Chris Sale in Boston. He’s essentially doubled down on what was working for him last year and become a two pitch pitcher (four-seam & slider account for 85% of pitches this year). It should be noted that his spin rate on both pitches is up around 100 RPM and the whiff rates on these pitches has exploded (both above 35%) without an increase in velocity. Fastballs up, sliders down and it’s working nearly perfectly. Though he steps into a ferocious environment at Fenway, there are still a few things in his favor here. While we’ll have to watch for Kevin’s updated forecast, which suggests the playing of this game could be an issue, winds are expected to be blowing in from left-center, favoring a fly ball prone (39.6 GB%) left-handed pitcher. While current conditions favor a marginal decrease in overall run environment according to Weather Edge (Premium subscription required), the HR dampening effect is much more significant, potentially giving a pitcher of Boyd’s skill set a much more significant boost. Then there’s also the matter that despite the an imposing lineup, the Red Sox are struggling against LHP for the second year in a row (83 wRC+), though they still don’t strike out a ton (20.6%). Boyd is one of the most expensive pitchers on the board at his point, but still reasonably around $9K considering the performance. Watch the weather here, but don’t be scared off by the environment or name value in the Boston lineup. Matt Boyd has been for real and players are likely to find him with depressed ownership in this spot.
Is He Hot Now?
I’ve had Charlie Blackmon as a Core Play for most of the last week on FD and Yahoo, as his salary was way too low based on fluky small sample numbers from the early season. Well, now he has two home runs and two triples in the last three days, so we’ll probably see even more ownership flooding his way. This is definitely a ‘don’t overthink it’ for cash games on FD and Yahoo, though you can make a case to fade him in tournaments based on ownership. On DK/FDRFT, his salary is up to where it should be, leaving him as a strong but not must-play in cash games, but likely with lower ownership in tournaments.
Savings Out West
With obvious expensive bats in Colorado and Houston, we will need some savings somewhere tonight. The Oakland right-handed outfielders are noticeable values on all sites tonight. Mike Minor is a good real life pitcher, but he’s been more lucky than anything in the early going this season. He throws a lot of strikes without much swing and miss ability and allows hard hits and fly balls to righties. Stephen Piscotty has a 44% hard hit rate in the early going after a 43% HH rate in 2018, and is bizarrely underpriced on DK. On FD, if the last couple dollars are needed elsewhere, you could shift down to Mark Canha and Chad Pinder, who also hit the ball extremely hard against left-handed pitching, and find themselves at just $2,500 each on FD.
Really Like This FanDuel Price
David Hess is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and has a very low strikeout rate to both lefties and righties. This is a great spot to target the White Sox. Yonder Alonso has a .143 ISO with a .274 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but that doesn’t tell the full story and I hope it’s why he goes overlooked tonight. He has a .162 BABIP with a 38.9% hard-hit rate and a 91.6 average exit velocity against righties this season. His .454 CXwOBA suggest he has some positive regression coming his way. I really like this spot for him, and on FanDuel, I like pairing him and Abreu on the same team.
Velocity loss has not mattered so far
Joe Musgrove has pitched into the seventh with at least six strikeouts and no more than two runs in each of his three starts, having put up a cumulative 20.7 K-BB% without allowing a single HR thus far. Velocity on his fastball is down over two mph, which should be a concern, but is not at this point, since he’s now throwing his slider just as often (29%) with a terrific 43.8 Whiff%. Amazing how Pittsburgh has come around on that since Cole was traded. His overall 31.1 Z-O-Swing% is the day’s best mark. While one would expect his .232 BABIP to regress, his ERA estimators are still healthily in the mid-threes and the Pittsburgh defense has allowed just a .256 BABIP so far. Musgrove pitches in a favorable park and his .264 xwOBA has been behind only Brad Peacock on this slate. The Diamondbacks have been a bit more offensively competent than expected to this point, but do have a 24.7 K% vs RHP and will experience a park downgrade with conditions expected to be favorable for pitchers tonight. The Diamondbacks are third from the bottom at 3.48 implied runs and at just $8.1K, Musgrove might be the best value on the board on DraftKings tonight. FanDuel has priced him a bit more aggressively at this point ($9K), but still likely a fine value here. As this is the first game of the series, an umpire assignment has not yet been revealed, but even the worst case scenario should not be enough to move players off this pitcher tonight.
Everything Lines Up Here
Prior to yesterday, the general public might have been scared off by the slow start of Ryan Zimmerman, but his two home run performance likely killed off any chance of getting low ownership here. The problem with trying to fade this spot is that because Zimmerman was bit by a fluky low .200 BABIP early on, his salary is way too low for a trip to Coors Field to face a lefty. His plate skills remain strong and he’s close to a must-play for me in cash games on all sites.
Getting Things Done
Joe Musgrove was a breakout candidate coming into the season, and so far, he is living up to the hype with an 0.81 ERA. Of course, that is small sample size fluke, as his .232 BABIP and 0% HR/FB rate are going to regress, but his 3.61 SIERA should be fully reachable, with elite control and ability to limit hard contact. His strikeout rate is up at 25.6% in the early going, and with his walks again under 5%, he will be hard to beat in his home ballpark. His skills and matchup are especially favorable compared to his salary on DK, but he’s in play on all formats on all sites.
Unreliable Options
Monday’s pitching options appear to be so unreliable that it could make sense to simply take the cheapest option available in David Hess. Yes, I’m fully aware that Hess isn’t a good pitcher but he did show at least some upside earlier this season, striking out eight Blue Jays en route to a 33.7 DK/53 FD point performance. The White Sox lineup has plenty of strikeouts in it, as 6-of-9 hitters in their current projected lineup posted strikeout rates north of 24% against right handed pitching last season.
Can He Keep Getting Lucky
Jake Arrieta has done a great job at getting groundballs and pitching deeper into games over the last year. Brandon Nimmo is a guy with a high strikeout rate that I like to target against low strikeout pitchers. Since the start of 2018, Arrieta has a 17.2% strikeout rate against lefties, and in his four starts this season, he has a 6% strikeout rate against lefties. While the wOBA is really good for Arrieta, his xFIP suggest he’s getting really lucky. Nimmo and Conforto really hit sinkers well, and I really like the upside for both of them in this spot.
It's About Time
I really like the fact that we don’t have to worry about an opener and whose coming in after for the Rays tonight. Chirinos threw 88 pitches in his start against Houston and has been extremely effective this season. He has a 3.71 xFIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 11.7% swinging strike rate. He’s using his sinker/splitter combo against lefties, and a sinker/splitter/slider combo to righties. He’s mixing it up really well, and doing a great job keeping hitters off balance. The Royals have been hitting better, and the pitch count could be anywhere for 70 to 100. Those are the biggest concerns, but the upside is certainly worth looking at in this matchup.