DFS Alerts
The Night's Top Offense
Boston is obviously a top offense to target this evening against a hit or miss arm in Sanchez, and they have a massive team total approaching five and a half runs. Obviously, the top of the order plays like Betts and Benintendi are strong parts of any stack, but I will also highlight another player. It won’t surprise you that our highest PlateIQ score on the evening slate belongs to a Boston player, but it may surprise you to see that it belongs to not Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez, but to none other than Mitch Moreland. He has four homers already this year and appears poised for a strong season in the middle of the Boston lineup. Add him in as a great option as well.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi
When In Doubt
This is a rough slate for pitchers, and I’ll go to one of my first rules for 2019 DFS – When in doubt, play the pitcher in San Francisco. Jon Gray had a wonky 2018 season, but the peripherals have always been there. We know he has strikeout ability, and even in his rocky season, his control remained solid with 7% walks. He has always been above 24% strikeouts and with his ground balls to right-handed batters, this is just not a threatening matchup against the Giants in this ballpark.
Nick Castellanos (toe) scratched Thursday
Castellanos has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to a right toe injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by John Hicks, who will now play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Jeimer Candelario all the way up to the two-hole and slides Dustin Peterson up one batting position to fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Shane Bieber at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Tigers PR via Twitter
Value in large platoon splits
Lance Lynn is a perfectly league average pitcher at this point. He struck out exactly five in each of his first two starts against the contact prone lineups of the Angels and Cubs. He now moves to Arizona at a reasonable $7K price point to face a surprisingly efficient Diamondbacks lineup thus far (111 wRC+, 20.2 K%, 21.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Lynn has always had terrible platoon splits however and over the last calendar year, LHBs have a .363 wOBA against him. Statcast tells a slightly better story, but a .336 xwOBA is still higher than the league average and in concert with a 37.2 Hard% and 24.8 GB%. The Diamondbacks do not offer a lot of left-handed firepower, but they do have David Peralta (149 wRC+, .255 ISO, 51.9 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) with an extremely hitter friendly umpire behind the plate (Fieldin Culbreth). Eduardo Escobar (108 wRC+, .236 ISO) is a league average bat with some pop as well.
Other tagged players: Lance Lynn, Eduardo Escobar
Wind won't help this pitcher throw strikes
The winds are blowing in at Wrigley and a peek inside the premium Weather Edge too suggests it’s going to be pretty damn hard to hit the ball out of the park tonight. This means load up on pitching, right? Not so fast. Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Cubs. He’s walked 30.6% of the batters he’s seen this season. While wind does severely effect power, it won’t make Darvish throw strikes. In fact, Weather Edge suggests the significance to overall weather environment isn’t nearly as dramatic. Lastly, this game will feature a very hitter friendly umpire, Manny Gonzalez. While the Pirates feature a more contact prone lineup than a high powered one, and affordable Pittsburgh stack can be considered in case Darvish continues to walk the park. Adam Frazier (134 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Starling Marte (115 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (123 wRC+, .161 ISO) are all well above average hitters against RHP in the top half of this lineup.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Yu Darvish Some scary contact numbers despite great peripherals
James Paxton is not a pitcher one would recommend picking on and perhaps a full on Houston stack tonight is not a tremendous idea, but despite some fantastic peripherals (30.4 K%, 6.5 BB%), Paxton seemed to struggle a bit against the Orioles in both of his starts. The reason why? An inability to get them to chase pitches (55.8 Z-O-Swing%) and too much hard contact (58.6% 95+ mph EV) when it was made. While he gets a tremendous run environment upgrade here and should pitch well enough tonight, especially with Alex Bregman out of the lineup, a couple of things might be working in favor of the Astros’ bats here. First, the roof is expected to be open and second, home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez is extremely hitter friendly. While Paxton has actually exhibited a reverse platoon split in recent years (RHBs .269 wOBA last calendar year), the Astros have chosen to stack the lineup with right-handed bats. Both George Springer (144 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Altuve (120 wRC+, .139 ISO) are fairly affordable tonight. Tyler White (178 wRC+, .261 ISO) is another cheap bat, who hits the ball hard and also moves up a spot to sixth with the absence of Bergman tonight. One potential negative to consider is that the line has moved in the direction of New York, although the total has inched up half a run since opening. Paxton can still have a strong outing, while a few key bats put up some decent fantasy numbers.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Tyler White, James Paxton Underlying numbers dominant despite marginal results
Noah Syndergaard is the highest priced pitcher on the slate and would immediately seem over-valued after a couple of not so stellar results against Washington, resulting in a 4.50 ERA and now a matchup against a Minnesota offense with a 121 wRC+ and 20.8 K% vs RHP. However, the underlying numbers tell a vastly different story. Thor has a 28.3 K% (13.9 SwStr%, 74.6 Z-Contact%) and has been dominating at the point of contact. Consider the following numbers through two starts: 55.2 GB%, 6.9 LD%, 18.2 IFFB%, 85.8 mph aEV, 3.3% Barrels/BBE. And these numbers were both against a strong offense that is very familiar with him. If Syndergaard’s price looks like it may scare off most players (premium players have access to Projected Ownership), there should be some consideration towards paying up tonight. Syndergaard also benefits from a great park and a potentially favorable umpiring situation (Mike Winters).
Raking rookie in a strong reverse platoon spot
Pete Alonso is raking. He has four home runs on the four game home stand, along with a 270 wRC+ and 69.2 Hard% over the last week. And Citi Field has never been a friend to right-handed power. He’s barreling an obscene 38.9% of batted balls in his rookie season with a 95.6 mph aEV (teammate J.D. Davis actually has a 97 mph aEV). Tonight, he finds himself in an interesting spot against Jake Odorizzi. Known to harbor a reverse platoon split throughout his career, RHBs have a .336 wOBA against the righty over the last year with a .353 xwOBA. At the same time, Odorizzi has been running a ground ball rate below 25%. An interesting dynamic in his last start, Odorizzi only threw four fastballs near the top of the zone, perhaps overly cautious against powerful bats in a small park in Philly. The approach did not work out for him (3 BB, 1 K). The more spacious Citi Field could push him to return to his normal game plan. The downside here is that Alonso’s price has increased significantly, but the bat is real. He’s the most expensive bat in the Mets’ lineup. However, no other New York bat exceeds $4K on DraftKings (except Conforto) and each of the first six hitters in the batting order exceed a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, despite the team implied for just 4.08 runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Jake Odorizzi, Michael Conforto New pitch and a great matchup
Frankie Montas has generated a double digit swinging strike rate in each of his first two starts of the season, something he accomplished only four times in 11 starts last year. Credit is being given to a new split finger, which he’s thrown 22% of the time and has been generating a 36.8% whiff rate, according to Statcast. His numbers aren’t overwhelming, but he’s struck out 24.4% of the Angels and Astros he’s faced, two contact prone offenses. While opponents have a 90.6 Z-Contact% on his pitches, he’s increased his swings on pitches out of the zone (37.4 Z-O-Swing%). He has an outstanding matchup in Baltimore tonight at a reasonable price and a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate (Chad Whitson). The downside is that ownership is likely to be up based on the matchup alone. Premium subscribers should be sure to check in with Projected Ownership rates when they are released later. Montas could be a terrific value around the $8K price point tonight.
A Solid SP2
If you are looking for a cheap GPP pitching choice, give Kikuchi a look tonight. This is a pitcher with a strong track record in Japan, and he was good in his MLB debut. While he has struggled since, we can certainly expect some ups and downs. Tonight’s matchup is a better one against a Royals offense that is beatable and generally has been over-achieving so far this season. Given the affordable price tag, I think this is a nice spot to buy low on Kikuchi.
Tough Night On The Mound
Pitching is a bit of a mess tonight. It’s not that we don’t have good pitchers going, but the best arms are in some of the toughest matchups, while the cheaper arms aren’t really all that cheap. While James Paxton is the best overall pitcher on the slate, his matchup in Houston is difficult enough that I prefer to start with Noah Syndergaard at home against the Twins. Yes, the Twins put a hurting on Jacob deGrom last night, but these things happen, it doesn’t make them suddenly better than the Astros or Yankees. We don’t know yet where Syndergaard’s strikeouts will land, but we do know he has excellent control and can pile up soft contact. Syndergaard will be my starting point in cash games, and alongside the other aces in tournaments.
Go Back To The Lefties Here
Last night it was Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas providing the lefty power, and tonight the Brewers face another pitcher with significant splits and trouble against lefties. Travis Shaw has started slowly, but that has brought his salary down too far, especially on DK. In the early going, Shaw has a .227 BABIP but a 43% hard hit rate. That is just small sample size fluke, and he’s the same guy who has hit 30 HR in back-to-back seasons.
Too Cheap Against This Pitcher
Jurickson Profar started out slowly this season, but came to life in a big way last night, and has not yet been priced up accordingly. This Oakland team is the clear top offense of the night, and Profar is a low strikeout batter with moderate power facing a low strikeout, power prone pitcher in Dan Straily. Profar is just way too cheap on all sites and playable in all formats.
It's Obvious For A Reason
It’s rare to see a team total approaching 6 runs in a non-Coors Field, but that’s what we have tonight with the powerful Oakland lineup in Baltimore to face power prone Dan Straily. Straily has been a high home run risk while pitching half his games in Miami, and now he takes his fly balls and low strikeouts to a much worse ballpark for his pitching style. He has historically been more of a reverse splits power pitcher, so I’ll start with the big righty power bats of Khris Davis and Matt Chapman. Both guys hit the ball hard and in the air, and with Chapman coming at a nice discount, I’ll start with him.
He Uses His Sinker A Lot
The Brewers came up big for me last night, and I’m going right back to the well tonight. I really like the upside of this team, and they’re a little underpriced on DraftKings. Travis Shaw is off to a slow start, but I’m not going to let them scare me off him. He has a .362 wOBA with a .234 ISO and a 39% hard-hit rate against sinkers since the start of 2016. Pena uses his sinker 50% of the time against left-handed hitters.
