DFS Alerts
Low Owned SP2
I think a lot of people will attack the pitchers in this Chicago game tonight, and I think it makes a lot of sense with the weather conditions. I don’t think I can do it in cash games, but I do like the upside for tournaments at this price. I prefer Lyles over Darvish, and just can’t trust Darvish with his control issues right now. Lyles had a 10.3% swinging strike rate with a 22.6% strikeout rate in 87.2 innings last season. His biggest issue is hard contact, but I’m hoping the weather helps that. It’s not a safe play by any means, but with the bats on this slate, I like pairing him with a strong pitcher and loading up on some bats in tournaments.
The Clear Ace
Jacob deGrom was surprisingly hit hard by the hit or miss Twins lineup on Tuesday, but I don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Syndergaard will not beat himself, and he’s one of the best pitchers in the league at limiting hard contact. He might not have the same K upside that we see with a pitcher like deGrom, but Syndergaard is clearly the top pitching choice on a main slate that lacks for elite hurlers at the top. I’ll play him as my ace in all formats.
Line Up The Lefties
It’s not going to be a pretty year for Lance Lynn in Texas, especially when the summer heat hits in Arlington. He has held right-handed bats to a respectable .279 wOBA for his career, but lefties have tagged him for a .346 mark in that department. That’s a wide split disparity for a pitcher with as much of a sample size as Lynn offers. Arizona SHOULD line up lefties in the top three spots of their order tonight with Dyson, Escobar, and Peralta, and they give you a nice combination of speed with Dyson and some pop with the other two. I love the LHB stack for the Diamondbacks here.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Jarrod Dyson Sneaky Spot For A Mini Stack
The Mets draw a matchup with Jake Odorizzi tonight, and their lineup as a whole actually doesn’t match up the greatest against the Minnesota starter. Odorizzi has a fairly large sample size with reverse splits for his career, as RHBs have done more damage and hit the ball harder against him. I like the prospects for Pete Alonso and Wilson Ramos here, and perhaps you can add a one-off lefty power bat like Robinson Cano. That’s enough to be a contrarian build on this Wednesday slate.
Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Robinson Cano Leadoff Hitter In A Good Spot
Robbie Grossman continues to be an excellent source of value. He’s not a big power guy, but he’s hitting leadoff for an offense with the highest implied run total tonight. Dan Straily had a .366 wOBA with a 45.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters last season. He pitched in Miami last season, and I’d expect his numbers to take an even bigger hit this year. I can see fading Grossman in a stack, but I think he’s a strong cash game play at this price.
ATL-COL postponed due to inclement weather Wednesday
The matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies on Wednesday afternoon has been postponed due to an impending blizzard forecasted to hammer the Denver area. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Monday, August 26 at 3:10 pm EST on what appears to be a mutual day off for both ball clubs. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Wednesday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Kyle Newman via Twitter
This Lineup Doesn't Scare Me
It sounds like Mike Trout isn’t going to play tonight after leaving last night’s game with a groin injury. This lineup takes a big hit with Justin Upton and Mike Trout both injured, which makes me like Woodruff on FanDuel and Yahoo. Woodruff uses his over powering fastball with a mix of a slider and a changeup to keep hitters off balance. This current Angels lineup has not done well against 94+ mph fast balls, and Woodruff is a 94-97 guy. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate in 2018 and has 13 strikeouts in nine innings to start this season.
Clutch Pivot: JSurab Reacts to Today's Projected Ownership
If you are looking for a spot to pivot in GPPs, I think the Dodgers are a great play. Right now, we have all the Dodgers bats projected for single-digit ownerships, yet we also know that this is one of the best lineups in baseball. Hudson is a groundball pitcher, but one thing that he struggles with is his walk rate to lefties (around 20%). He is not a strikeout guy either with his K rate at 16%. I think you load up on these Dodgers, especially Bellinger, Joc, Muncy, and Pollock.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock
Just as good at home as he's been on the road
The narrative on German Marquez has been that he’s great on the road, but, like most pitchers, struggles at Coors. He hasn’t yet started a game at home this year, but go back to July of last year. He’s made seven home starts at Coors since then. He’s struck out at least eight and gone at least six innings in all of them, allowing only as many as three earned runs just once. He’s struck out exactly 11 in each of his last three starts at home. Overall, in the second half of last season, he showcased an outstanding 28.4 K-BB% and his improvements at home were a big reason why. Now, Marquez is facing an Atlanta lineup that doesn’t strike out a ton (20.8% vs RHP this year), but expect most players to bypass him at a reasonable price in this environment. This outing also features a pitcher friendly umpire in Marty Foster behind the plate.
Top projected offense to contend with talented bullpen
The Houston Astros check in at 4.7 implied runs, the second highest total outside Coors tonight. Jonathan Loaisiga is a talented young arm, who has struck out 37 of the 124 batters he’s faced. He’s certainly overmatched by Gerrit Cole tonight and faces a difficult assignment against a Houston offense that picked right up where they left off the last two seasons with 112 wRC+ and 18.6 K% vs RHP this year. Tonight’s particular lineup had a .341 wOBA and 16.8 K% vs RHP last season via PlateIQ. Alex Bregman (164 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Altuve (140 wRC+, .147 ISO) are rarely poor plays against anyone, but what players rostering Houston bats tonight have to realize is that Loaisiga generally has his workload limited to around five innings. He only pitched into the sixth inning in one of his four starts last year and even then recorded only one out. The Astros will then have to contend with the highly esteemed Yankee bullpen, which currently owns a 2.95 FIP that’s fifth best in baseball on the young year.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Loaisiga, Jose Altuve Workload limitations could cap upside
Joey Lucchesi has looked great through two starts, striking out 13 of the 41 batters he’s faced and has already shut down the Giants this year. With five pitchers priced higher and a great park, he would seem an optimal alternative to some of the higher priced arms with a reasonable ownership projection, but the biggest issue is that he has not exceeded 87 pitches. The limitations were similar last year, when he exceeded 90 pitches in just six of 26 starts. The good news is his 12.9 SwStr% through two starts certainly offers more upside than last night’s starter (Eric Lauer) under similar constraints, but he’ll have to be extremely efficient with his pitches to return value. Considering a San Francisco team with a 55 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% thus far, it’s not necessarily out of the question that he does so, even at a price tag around $9K.
Cheap Leadoff Hitter
Daza is hitting leadoff for the Rockies tonight in his Major League debut. He had a .353 wOBA with a 118 wRC+ in AA last season. With Dahl hurt and Blackmon getting the night off, Daza is an excellent source of value on DraftKings. He’s not a big power hitter, but he is really fast, which gives him a lot of upside in this ballpark.
Line movement in premium pitching matchup
The premier pitching matchup tonight occurs in Philadelphia with Aaron Nola facing Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has struck out 17 Mets in his two starts, while Nola has struggled a bit, walking five in his first start and then allowing three HRs to these Nationals last time out, striking out only two. While nothing underneath the hood immediately looks amiss with velocity or a league average SwStr%, his four-seamer and change-up each exceed a 93 mph aEV on a combined 14 BBE. While Nola has generally been a high floor pitcher with solid upside, Strasburg has been a higher upside guy who tends to have occasional lapses. The stuff has looked strong (14.7 SwStr%) even with reduced velocity. From a pure DFS standpoint, Strasburg may seem the slightly better play (especially in GPPs) at a similar cost, both quite a bit cheaper than Jacob deGrom in the top spot tonight or even Gerrit Cole. However, these are both deep lineups and a look towards the sportsbook reveals that this total has increased a full run since opening, while the line has been moving slightly towards the Phillies. A peak at some of our Premium Tools reveals not much weather impact expected in this affair, but an umpire who may not be entirely beneficial towards pitchers (Alan Porter). Premium subscribers may also want to consult projected ownership numbers when posted, as a low enough ownership could still make one of these pitchers a profitable pivot from the higher priced arms.
Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole Continues To Be Cheap Enough
Tough pricing has really changed things up this season, and I’m really liking how tight the cap is. Robinson Cano is hitting third for the Mets tonight, and he’s one of my favorite cash game options. He doesn’t strikeout a lot and his lower walk rate suggest that he puts the ball in play. Kyle Gibson isn’t a big strikeout pitcher against lefties but did allow 36% hard contact against lefties last season. I think you can look at the lefties for the Mets in this spot tonight.
Heavy hitters facing a potential bullpen effort
John Means has struck out nine of the 25 batters he’s faced this season, but he’s done so pitching exclusively out of the bullpen thus far. He has been a starter throughout the minors with underwhelming strikeout rates. Expect to see a lot of a Baltimore bullpen with a 5.42 FIP through 88 innings. The A’s are healthily implied for 5.39 runs on the road tonight. Though Means is a southpaw, players should concentrate on hitters without much of a platoon split. The obvious candidates are Matt Chapman (120 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Khris Davis (132 wRC+, .302 ISO), who both hit same-handed pitching at least as well as southpaws, rather than a lefty-masher like Chad Pinder (128 wRC+, .175 ISO), who’s now up over $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Chad Pinder, John Means, Khris Davis