DFS Alerts
Lots of viable bats in Toronto lineup
Stacking against Matt Moore is never a bad idea in DFS. In 2018, Moore had a 6.79 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, .365 xwOBA and 1.68 HR/9 over 102 innings in 2018. The Blue Jays will stack their lineup with 9 RHB vs. Moore this afternoon in Toronto, many of these guys can be had at an affordable price. Danny Jansen is arguably the best catcher play on the board today, leading off and priced at $3.8k on DK. Brandon Drury remains cheap at $3.5k and will be in the 2 spot. Randall Grichuk (.360 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018) has nice upside at an affordable price of $4.3k. Lourdes Gurriel, Kevin Pillar and Freddy Galvis are lineup-filling options towards the bottom of the order than can be had for under $4k.
Other tagged players: Danny Jansen, Matt Moore, Brandon Drury, Kevin Pillar, Lourdes Gurriel, Freddy Galvis
Cheap Leadoff Catcher
All I really should have to say in this spot is “Matt Moore is pitching”. However, that would be a pretty short explanation and we want to give you a little more than just that (LOL). The bottom line is this: Toronto is in one of the best spots of the day against a pitcher who during the 2018 season had a 5.23 xfip, an 18.3% K rate, gave up 46.6% Hard Contact, and had a HR/9 of 1.676. Now we have Mr. Jansen who is leading off in a very good hitting environment and is incredibly affordable across the industry. He is THE play at catcher as far as i’m concerned and I would be playing him on all sites.
They Don't Realize
I’m not sure many people realize how good of a hitter Nick Castellanos is. While Castellanos has unsurprisingly been better against left handed pitching throughout his career, he’s still an above average hitter against same handed pitching and his numbers have improved vastly against righties as his career has progressed. Castellanos is the owner of an ISO north of .200 against same handed pitching twice in the last three years (.193 the other year) and he’s posted extremely strong hard hit rates the last two seasons (42.7% in 2017, 47.9% in 2018).
Crashing Down
Was Wade Miley’s randomly dominant 2018 in which he posted a 2.57 ERA an outlier? Probably. To Miley’s credit, his reliance on a newly developed cutter helped him generate soft contact and post a career best 52.8% ground ball rate. However, Miley’s 4.66 SIERA tells a little bit of a different story as the southpaw ran super hot with the long ball (0.33 HR/9) and with batting average on balls in play (.269). I’m not suggesting Miley’s going to immediately crash to start the 2019 season but this is perhaps a better matchup than most people realize for Tommy Pham and the Rays righties. Pham is my preferred target of the bunch as he’s shown some power upside in the latter part of his career.
A Good Place To Be Leading Off
Brett Gardner is one of the least exciting individual batters on this loaded Yankees team, but in this matchup specifically, his salary and lineup spot make him a prime target. Dylan Bundy is a threat to give up a lot of home runs with his fly ball style, but he was a far better pitcher against right-handed batters in 2018 with 31.4% K vs just 17.9% K to lefties. It’s tough to pick out the correct right-handed power bat behind Gardner from the high strikeout/high power trio of Judge, Stanton and Voit. With the 87% contact rate of Gardner, we can look to get him on base at a savings and know that any of the guys behind him will be ready to hit him in.
Running Wild
A pitcher who struggles to hold baserunners is going to be in rough shape against Kansas City this season. The White Sox Lucas Giolito was not only terrible against lefties in 2018 with a 14.4% K rate and 12.2% walks, but he also allowed 26 SB in 32 starts, with only 4 players caught stealing against him. Mondesi’s biggest weakness, the strikeouts, is less of an issue against Giolito and he has all kinds of stolen base upside if he gets on base. There is also enough power here with a 41% hard hit rate to do more than just dink and dunk and steal.
Power Without Breaking the Bank
If you started a list of which pitchers you wanted to target on Sunday’s main slate, Matt Moore would surely be atop that list. Moore struggled mightily in 2018 as he allowed a ton of hard contact (47.5% hard hit rate) and was unable to miss bats (18.3% strikeout rate). Enter Randal Grichuk who has shown a ton of power against left handed pitching throughout his career with a .228 ISO. The Blue Jays have one of the higher implied run totals of the main slate (4.8) and Grichuk is a strong way to grab exposure to their lineup while not breaking the bank.
All The Right-Handed Power
The Blue Jays right-handed power bats are in a prime spot today at home against Matt Moore and the Tigers. Moore is a left-handed starter with below average strikeouts who allowed a 40% fly ball rate and 45% hard hits to righties in 2018, leading to a .240 ISO against. Toronto has a trio of power bats in Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak and Teoscar Hernandez that all rank as strong options today. I’ll start with Grichuk who has a 39% hard hit rate and .217 ISO over the past two seasons against lefties. Grichuk and Hernandez do have strikeout risk, but both come with big power upside.
Not Priced Like It
Regardless of your projection source, Jon Gray is unanimously projected as a top four starting pitcher today but he isn’t priced as such across the industry (SP11 on Yahoo!, SP6 on FanDuel, SP4 on DraftKings, SP6 on FantasyDraft). Currently, Derek Carty’s projection system, THE BAT, has Gray with the top overall projection on the main slate which easily makes him the top point-per-dollar option available. Despite an inflated 5.12 ERA in 2018, Gray’s underlying stats were strong with a 3.68 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 47.5% ground ball rate. Gray’s matchup on Sunday couldn’t get much better as he’ll square off against an offensively inept Miami team at pitcher friendly Marlins Park.
A Close Bunch Up Top
There are a group of three pitchers at the top of the ranks today – Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ and Patrick Corbin. I’m siding with Carrasco first, as he has more strikeout ability with better control than Happ and a longer track record of success than Corbin. While the matchup is slightly better for Happ, he is dealing with rain, while Carrasco will have temperatures in the 30’s which will help dampen the offenses. Five straight seasons of a walk rate under 6% and back-to-back seasons with a strikeout rate above 28% give me confidence in Carrasco.
If Every Dollar Matters
On FanDuel, I’m adding Kenta Maeda to the Core Plays alongside Eduardo Rodriguez. I do still prefer ERod, but it’s close, and the $700 difference between the two is proving to be quite useful in some lineups. The innings are always a question with Dodgers starters, but the skills are there for Maeda, posting a 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.37 xFIP in 2018.
Darvish an intriguing play given lack of options at SP on slate
Yu Darvish makes his first start of 2019 vs. his former squad in Arlington. Darvish’s 2018 was derailed by injuries and saw him post a 4.95 ERA in just 40 innings. Darvish did make it through Spring Training without any serious injury . His Spring Training stats were a mixed bag, with a 2.25 ERA and 14 Ks over 12 innings, but also a 1.42 WHIP due in large part to 9 walks. His price ($8.8 on DK, $8.6 on FD) is a slight discount because of his disastrous 2018. His massive strikeout upside (career 11.04 k/9, projected 10.13 k/9 this year per Steamer) gives him a very good shot to return value on these prices. The Rangers return a very similar lineup to 2018, where they posted a 17th ranked .312 xwOBA vs. RHP but an ugly 24.4 K% that was 5th worst in the league. The Rangers have a 4.02 implied line vs. Darvish and the Cubs on Saturday night.
Cubs in nice spot vs. Volquez in Arlington
Edinson Volquez gets his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2018. Volquez has not been effective for some time now, posting a 6.61 K/9 and 4.58 xFIP over 189.1 innings in 2016 and following with a 7.9 K/9 and 4.78 xFIP over 92.1 innings in 2017. He returns to face a tough lineup in a hitter’s park with the wind blowing out to RF. Volquez is especially vulnerable vs. lefties (.368 xwOBA since 2016 vs. LHB). Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber all figure to be good plays here with nice upside. Zobrist ($4.0 on DK) is leading off and showed he still has some pop left with a .337 xwOBA vs RHP last year. Rizzo (.385 xwOBA in 2018) and Schwarber (.358) are more expensive but should fare well hitting in the middle of the order. Kris Bryant is another option batting 2nd, he also hit RHP well last year (.350 xwOBA). Javy Baez (.327 xWOBA in 2018 vs. RHP) feels a tad overpriced coming in at $5.3k on DK and $4.4k on FD, but is always a threat to go deep.
Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Edinson Volquez, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez Little Value Today, So Why Not Leadoff
Let me preface this by saying that I am not thrilled about recommending or playing Robbie Grossman, but he is batting leadoff, is fairly affordable, should be able to reach base safely a few times, and has some big power bats behind him. He is obviously not a slate breaker, but he doesn’t strike out a ton (17.9% in 2018) and will take the walks if they give them to him (10.9% BB in 2018). If he’s able to continue his plate discipline tonight, and possibly put a few in play as well, we should get the return we need on his very affordable salary.
Just Too Cheap for the Talent
Two years ago we saw Zack Cozart play at an All-Star level, but injuries limited what he could put together last season defensively and at the plate. Those days are behind us and i’m expecting him to put last season behind him and become a reliable offensive force for the Angels. Tonight could not be scripted any better for him as he faces a pitcher that will look to keep the ball on the ground. Inversely, Cozart with his 49% fly ball rate will look to put the ball in play through the air. He is not a guy that hits for power, but low strikeouts (9.8%) should work in his favor against a guy that will struggle to strike out my 1 year old daughter. He should have some RBI opportunities in this match-up as well and I like him put up HR numbers without having to send it across the fence.