DFS Alerts
Finally Showing That Upside
I am really encouraged with what we have seen from Lopez of late, and I have watched chunks of his last three starts. He’s attacking the zone and letting his stuff do the work, and that’s what he has needed to do for a long time. Remember, he was getting a lot of buzz back in spring training for his electric stuff and bump in velocity. A matchup against the Orioles could just be the ticket to success for him, and he has a 22/5 K/BB ratio over his last three outings. Look for him to be able to keep it rolling tonight, and Lopez is a fine mid-range arm. He’s in play for every site and format, though his FanDuel price tag is oddly high. The good news over there is that will serve to keep his GPP ownership down a bit.
Upside at a Fair Price
There’s no question that, all other things being equal, we would rather play Marquez over Morton tonight. However, Marquez is $2,200 more expensive than Morton on FanDuel, and he’s $3,200 more expensive than Morton on DraftKings. That’s no small potatoes. The Astros are healthy home favorites tonight, and Morton is capable of racking up some strikeouts even if he only pitches five or six innings. If you have the salary to spend, I have no issue jamming Marquez in there, but it’s hard on a slate where I also want to prioritize some expensive bats. For that reason, Morton is more in play for me, even in cash games. This might be the minority sentiment, though, so feel free to opt for Marquez if you want the safer floor at pitcher.
Holy BvP!
The Milwaukee lefties find themselves in a juicy spot tonight in a matchup against Ivan Nova. The Pittsburgh starter has always had pretty extreme splits, and we want to target left-handed bats against him. I will say, though, that Nova’s 2018 data is trending a little more splits-neutral. Lefties have still posted the better marks against him, but he’s actually allowed a little more hard contact to righties. I’m still going to side with his longer-term data points, though, and the lefties are my preferred targets in this spot. It starts with Travis Shaw, and even though you may not be a believer in BvP — I generally am not myself — it’s hard to ignore a 12-for-16 BvP mark with three home runs. That’s enough to make me think that MAYBE Shaw can see the ball well out of Nova’s hand. His price is a little more affordable than some other big bats, and Shaw is coming off a big game on Friday. That’s a great combination, and I’ll happily load up with Shaw as a core play today.
Cheap Power
Trey Mancini hit two HRs on Friday night and was rewarded with a $100 price decrease on DraftKings. Mancini has unrivaled power upside at his price range as he owns a career .210 ISO against same handed pitching. Mancini and the O’s draw another favorable matchup on Saturday night against Reynaldo Lopez who has been solid as of late but is the owner of a 5.00 SIERA on the season.
Power Upside
Ian Kennedy remains the same pitcher that we have seen time and time again. He allows a ton of fly balls, hard contact, and home runs. Sometimes the BABIP gods smile upon him and he escapes danger. Sometimes it’s a disaster. In any case, I love power bats against him, but the Twins aren’t the best matchup with which to fire up power bats. Eddie Rosario is your best power option here with his .217 ISO against RHP for the year, while Jake Cave has also flashed some pop at times and comes with a more reasonable price point. Outside of those two hitters, I’m not high on the Twins today, but Rosario makes the cut as a core play.
Fishing for a Big Game
The Angels are definitely a team we can target this evening against a journeyman RHP in Ramirez, who has an ERA over 5.00 and has allowed hard contact at an alarming 40.5% clip this season. Lefties have peppered him for a wOBA of .419 and a 43% hard contact rate. Yikes. Righties are in play, too, as they are generating just as many line drives; Ramirez’ better numbers against righties simply come down to batted ball luck. I like the middle of this order a lot tonight, and it of course starts with Mike Trout. He hasn’t missed a beat since his return from injury, posting a .385 average, .529 OBP, and 1.119 OPS so far in September.
Lefty Pop
The Brewers have one of the better offensive draws on the slate as they’ll face Ivan Nova at home at hitter friendly Miller Park. Nova has some poor numbers against lefty hitters this season (5.07 xFIP) as lefties are putting everything in play against him (11.7% strikeout rate). Shaw and his career .233 ISO against right handed pitching give you a ton of power upside in this matchup. Shaw has an exploitable price tag across the industry and will draw a favorable lineup spot for a team with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate.
Highest Strikeout Rate on Slate
I would love to play German Marquez but the price difference between him and Charlie Morton is significant. Marquez is $2,200 more expensive on DK and $3,200 on FD. Morton hasn’t shown much upside as of late but owns the highest strikeout rate on the slate (28.6%). The Diamondbacks have the second lowest implied run total on the slate (3.5) as this stands as a good run prevention spot for the veteran righty as well.
Best Hitter In Baseball
There aren’t many strong offensive environments on Saturday night as the Phillies may be the only team with an implied run total of five runs or more. That means you’ll have plenty of salary to spend, so you may as well just pay for the best hitter in baseball in a favorable matchup against Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez has struggled big time this season with keeping the ball in the yard as he’s already given up 10 HRs in just 39 IP. This is a great power spot for Trout and the Angels offense and he should be a staple of your cash game lineups.
Too Cheap
Man, VV hasn’t been good, but his price tag, especially on FanDuel, is just way too cheap for a home matchup against the Marlins. VV is the owner of a 3.95 SIERA on the season and has shown some nice strikeout upside with a 26% strikeout rate and an 11.4% swinging strike-rate. A matchup against the Marlins isn’t the best for strikeouts as PlateIQ has Miami’s projected lineup with a strikeout rate south of 20% but it is a good run prevention spot. There’s room for some error here with VV’s price tag so low and the Phillies righty has plenty of upside as well.
Brewers Lefties an a Great Spot vs Nova
Throughout his career Ivan Nova has struggled with left handed batters, and his 2018 campaign has been no different. He has not only allowed a .379 wOBA to LHH thus far, but also has a 10% lower K-rate vs LHH as well (21.6 K% vs RHH, 11.7 K% vs LHH). This could be a recipe for rough outing against a Brewers squad with a number of skilled left-handed bats and the highest Vegas-implied team total on the main slate, lead by Christian Yelich who has arguably been the hottest hitter in baseball the second half of the season. Aside from Yelich, also look to Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas and the newly aquired Curtis Granderson as solid plays in this matchup against an extreme splits pitcher with limited strikeout ability against LHH.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas
Free Power
As I’ve built lineups throughout the day, I can’t stop landing on Stewart as a cheap power source on FanDuel in all formats. He is batting second, facing one of the most power prone pitchers in the league and he costs $2,100. He makes so many other things work, I’m adding him to the Core. He has big power and the time to play for it is against a low strikeout pitcher like Josh Tomlin.
Low level of concern in Friday night's forecast
Friday’s MLB forecast has been updated and there are few concerns on it. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.
Still struggles against LHBs
The Cubs just barely exceed five implied runs (5.01), but are one of just three teams to do so tonight. Matt Harvey struck out a season high 10 batters last time out, but that was the Padres and he’s otherwise topped out at seven and even that only once. He still has an ERA with estimators well above four this season and LHBs have a .355 wOBA against him. Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), former teammate Daniel Murphy (125 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Ben Zobrist (129 wRC+, .167 ISO) all seem good bets here. Be warned that Rizzo and Murphy both have a wRC+ below -30 over the last week (yes, that’s a negative), perhaps the reason for the lineup flip flop tonight.
Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Harvey Move up the lineup for a pair of value bats
Jorge Lopez has allowed two runs over his last 15 innings, going eight innings against the Twins in his last start. He struck out just four and the Twins have a healthy 4.78 implied run line for the rematch. Lopez has decent minor league numbers, but is not much of a prospect. The more interesting thing here is the middle of the Minnesota batting order. Just two batters in the order are above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP this season. They are Jake Cave (124 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Willians Astudillo (126 wRC+, .276 ISO), who generally bat lower in the order, but tonight they bat third and sixth, each costing less than $4K on DraftKing and around $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Willians Astudillo, Jorge Lopez