DFS Alerts
Upside on either side of this matchup
Chris Archer is a very erratic pitcher with some upside. He’s certainly playable at a reasonable price against an offense with some strikeouts. Powerful Milwaukee bats are also interesting against a pitcher with an 89 mph aEV. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Archer this season. The Brewers offer four batters above a 110 wRC+, .230 ISO and 40 Hard% against RHP this year. The best of those have been Christian Yelich (151 wRC+, .249 ISO), Travis Shaw (133 wRC+, .290 ISO) and Jesus Aguilar (136 wRC+, .279 ISO). Mike Moustakas (117 wRC+, .236 ISO) is the other.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar, Chris Archer, Mike Moustakas
High priced pitcher, but also a well projected offense
Ironically, Robbie Ray is one of the higher priced pitchers tonight in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, yet the opposing team has one of the higher run lines on the board (4.66). This is because while Ray can pile up the strikeouts, he can also pile up the walks and hard contact too. He’s also facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, which has several bats that torch LHP. Alex Bregman (171 wRC+, .268 ISO) has become a top choice whenever facing a southpaw. George Springer (136 wRC+, .199 ISO) leads off. Tyler White (196 wRC+, .327 ISO) is still a small sample superstar, but that sample is growing. Interestingly, while Jose Altuve, Yulieski Gurriel and Carlos Correa all exceed a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year, none have an ISO above .140. Injuries and small sample sizes likely play a large part in those numbers.
Other tagged players: Tyler White, George Springer, Robbie Ray, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel Not as good as he's looked with his new team
Kevin Gausman allowed more than one earned run for the first time since his first start for the Braves last time out, but he still has an xFIP nearly two full runs higher than his 2.32 ERA in seven starts for his new team with just a 17.8 K% and 41.3 Hard%. Washington is a difficult and deep lineup that doesn’t strike out much. Their 4.44 implied run line might be a bit low. Gausman has a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .335 wOBA, .359 xwOBA), but LHBs still hit him well enough (.311 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). The top and middle of this order offers four potent bats against RHP this year. Adam Eaton (125 wRC+, .124 ISO) leads off with Bryce Harper (135 wRC+, .270 ISO), Anthony Rendon (127 wRC+, .197 ISO) and Juan Soto (152 wRC+, .219 ISO) looking to drive in runs.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Kevin Gausman Rookie pitcher could be over-matched by major league bats
The White Sox find themselves with a 4.83 implied run line that’s fifth best on the board tonight. How do they find themselves in this situation? A park upgrade in Baltimore for one. The atrocious Baltimore bullpen for another. Lastly, 22 year-old Luis Ortiz makes his first major league start. Ortiz was the fourth best prospect in the Milwaukee system back in December with a 50 Future Value grade at the time and was included in the Jonathan Schoop trade. The Orioles quickly promoted him to AAA for the first time, where he had just a 15.6 K%. He’s faced seven major league batters and walked three without a strikeout. While Ortiz may have a future, it doesn’t appear to be now. Omar Narvaez (124 wRC+, .151 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup by wRC+ vs RHP this year, but Daniel Palka (111 wRC+, .261 ISO) and Jose Abreu (111 wRC+, .200 ISO) have more upside in front of him, as does Yoan Moncada (103 wRC+, .189 ISO). In fact, though just the two have an ISO above .200 against RHP this season, each of the first eight batters are above .150. This is a playable lineup, even if they strike out too much.
Other tagged players: Daniel Palka, Yoan Moncada, Luis Ortiz, Omar Narvaez Extreme flyball pitcher facing powerful lineup in an extreme power friendly park
The Yankees have the top implied run line on the board at home against Marco Estrada. This is expected and not even close. No other team is within one-half run. Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher in one of the most power friendly parks in the majors. By extreme fly ball pitcher, that means a GB rate below 25%. While LHBs have been just average against him (.314 wOBA), RHBs pound him (.395 wOBA). Not a good omen against a lineup full of RHBs who hit same-handed pitching well and for power. Andrew McCutchen (110 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP this year) gains a lot of value in the leadoff spot at a reasonable price. He has the lowest ISO vs RHP among the first eight batters. Miguel Andujar (132 wRC+, .219 ISO) has hit RHP better than Giancarlo Stanton (107 wRC+, .204 ISO). Aaron Hicks (128 wRC+, .188 ISO) drops to third and has a -49 wRC+ (11.8 Hard%) over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Marco Estrada, Aaron Hicks Strong contact manager in a very tough spot
Despite a full 15 game slate with very few expensive pitchers, the Indians are one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight. Their 5.13 mark is actually even second best at home against the Tigers. Cleveland is one of the more positive run environments in baseball, but Matt Boyd is a quality contact manager (.295 xwOBA) with an above average strikeout rate (22.6%). RHBs have just a .290 wOBA against him this season with an xwOBA just 13 points higher. Francisco Lindor (171 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (121 wRC+, .216 ISO) generally play against almost anyone at home, but both have a wRC+ below 50 over the last week. Josh Donaldson (125 wRC+, .163 ISO) plays against virtually any LHP, if healthy. These are certainly three bats that remain on the board in this spot, but Boyd has been a quality pitcher and fading these high priced bats could have some value tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Matthew Boyd Tremendous home/road splits
The Phillies have a healthy 4.87 implied run line that puts them within the top five marks tonight at home against Wei-Yin Chen. The “at home” part might be the most important because Chen has a gap of over seven runs in his home/road ERA and his road FIP (6.37) is exactly double his home FIP (3.18). The Phillies will send everyone against him from the right-hand side (.333 wOBA, 34.1 GB% vs Chen this year). Against a fly ball pitcher in a power friendly park, we’re looking for power against LHP and that comes from only two Philadelphia batters: Wilson Ramos (156 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Carlos Santana (114 wRC+ .221 ISO). Single season sample marks against LHP are still rather small by nature, so one might expect further growth from Rhys Hoskins (105 wRC+, .128 ISO), while Jose Bautista (101 wRC+, .172 ISO) is cheap and hasn’t been terrible near the top of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Wei-Yin Chen, Rhys Hoskins, Jose Bautista Matchup where both pitchers have large wOBA-xwOBA gaps
Edwin Jackson has somehow sustained a sub-.300 wOBA against batters from either side of the plate this season, though his xwOBA is within six points of .350 either way with a hard hit rate above 35%. Ji-Man Choi (156 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season) has been on fire with a 273 wRC+ and 70 Hard% over the last week. Despite the negative run environment and both teams below 4.5 implied runs, he has a chance to do some damage tonight. On the other side, players can’t be sure what the Rays will throw at the A’s, but Diego Castillo will start. He has held batters from either side below a .300 wOBA as well, though LHBs have a .350 xwOBA and 47.9 Hard%. Nick Martini (130 wRC+, .114 ISO) costs just $3.2K on DK out of the leadoff spot, while Jed Lowrie (139 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Matt Olson (122 wRC+, .249 ISO) will likely each get one shot at him as well.
Other tagged players: Edwin Jackson, Nick Martinez, Diego Castillo, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson Home/Away
Home: .238 wOBA, 4.11 xFIP, 23.4 K%. Away: .415 wOBA, 5.63 xFIP, 14.3 K%. I’m not typically one for home/away splits, let alone single season splits, but Chen has certainly faired much better at home this season. Chen will be on the road for this contest facing a Phillies team that is still trying to claw it’s way back into playoff contention. Our current projected lineup has Altherr hitting third for the Phillies, which is a valuable spot in the order for a team with an implied run total of five runs. Altherr is a PH-risk, just like 90% (slight exaggeration) of players this late in the season but his dirt cheap price tag helps mitigate some of that risk.
Hector Velazquez (illness) scratched Friday; William Cuevas will start in his place
Velazquez is battling an illness and consequentially won’t make his previously scheduled start for the Boston Red Sox in Friday’s home matchup against the NewYork Mets due to the aforementioned ailment. He’ll be replaced on the mound by William Cuevas, who, like Velazquez, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projections of the Mets hitters in any significant fashion. However, with Cuevas opening the game, this contest still sets up as a clear bullpen game for Boston, which was the play even if Velazquez were healthy enough to take the mound. That said, still be sure to double check out the updated projections in LineupHQ and the Starting Lineups page for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: Ian Browne via Twitter Other tagged players: William Cuevas
Daily Bullpen Alert: Everybody's bullpening
Five major league bullpens exceed a five FIP over the last month and while they’ve dropped below six (progress!), Baltimore (5.61 FIP, 6.8 K-BB%) and Washington (5.53 FIP, 11.9 K-BB%) are the only two pens above 5.5 over that span. While players can forget about attacking the Nationals with Max Scherzer on the mound. The Orioles give 22 year-old Luis Ortiz his first major league starts. He had just a 15.6 K% at AAA this season (six starts), but at least he’s a natural starter, unlike some of tonight’s other pitchers. The Twins (5.39 FIP, 9.7 K-BB%), Marlins (5.39 FIP, 8.7 K-BB%) and Rangers (5.24 FIP, 14.1 K-BB%) are the other struggling pens over the last 30 days. The Twins are in Kansas City with the erratic Jose Berrios on the mound. The Marlins back Wei-Yin Chen, who’s been terrible on the road, in Philadelphia. The Rangers are in San Diego and are one of several teams going with a bullpen day tonight. Other teams employing a “bullpening” strategy tonight are the Rays (no surprise), Red Sox, and Mariners. Despite just a slightly above average K-BB (15.3%), the Rays have the second best bullpen FIP in baseball over the last month (2.97). The Red Sox (4.22 FIP, 14.6 K-BB%) and Mariners (4.35 FIP, 15.3 K-BB%) have more marginal pens. Seattle hasn’t even confirmed a starting pitcher for tonight. Don’t forget that with expanded rosters, managers can virtually matchup every single plate appearance if they wish.
So...Uninspiring
Kyle Seager is so…uninspiring. Seager has been bad this season but for his career has shown a strong offensive skill-set against opposite handed pitching – he’s the owner of a 119 wRC+ and .190 ISO against righties. We don’t have much of a sample to work with in regards to what type of pitcher Matt Shoemaker is at this stage in his career and I’m ok paying to find out. Shoemaker is the owner of a 3.45 ERA over 15.2 IP this season but is hardly generating any soft contact (8.9 Soft%) and his 4.98 SIERA indicates he’s likely ran a little pure.
There Will Be Dingers
James Shields. In Camden. There will be dingers. Trey Mancini is the chalk Baltimore Oriole of choice and rightfully so. Mancini can give you a little pop for cheap as he’s the owner of a career .203 ISO versus right handed pitching. Multiple value bats will be need if looking to roster Max Scherzer as SP1 on Friday night and Mancini is a top value option.
Unexciting Option
Gio threw a gem in his first start for the Brewers as the old Nats lefty racked up 28.4 DK points and struck out seven Giants batters over 5.2 IP. Friday’s matchup isn’t quite as good for Gio as the Brewers host a Pirates team that has been neutral against southpaws this season (21.7 K%, 96 wRC+). Gio is an unexciting option as he’s basically been a league average pitcher for his career but he’s priced cheap enough that there’s room for him to return value on his price tag.
Top strikeout pitchers in difficult spots, but maybe some value lower on the board
Price ($4.8K), park (San Diego) and opposition (Rangers 83 wRC+ on the road, 91 wRC+ vs LHP and without a DH tonight) make Robbie Erlin (20 K%, 3.52 SIERA, .309 xwOBA) a likely complement to Max Scherzer on DraftKings. Tyler Anderson (22.4 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) is a bit more expensive in San Francisco (41 wRC+, 28.6 K% last seven days), but has just one quality start over his last eight. Dallas Keuchel (17.5 K%, 4.04 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has had mixed results recently, but has gone at least six innings 22 times this year and has the top ground ball rate on the board (54%) in perhaps the best park (Houston) at a reasonable price ($7.9K on DK) against the Diamondbacks (86 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs LHP). Chris Archer (24.2 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .332 xwOBA) remains inconsistent in a dangerous spot (Brewers 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP), but also a high upside one (Brewers 24.6 K% vs RHP) for $7.5K or less. Chris Stratton (19 K%, 3.95 SIERA, .325 xwOBA last 30 days) is cheap and at home against the Rockies (81 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP). Finally, some high strikeout arms (Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, and Noah Syndergaard) are just in terrible spots in Houston, vs LA (NL) and at Fenway tonight.
Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel, Chris Stratton, Tyler Anderson, Robbie Erlin, Noah Syndergaard, Jack Flaherty, Robbie Ray