DFS Alerts
Priority Spend
Despite Carlos Rodon’s recent success, Mookie Betts is a priority spend for me on Saturday’s main slate. Rodon has looked good the last couple of months but it’s safe to wonder if his recent success is sustainable. The White Sox southpaw is the owner of a 2.70 ERA but his advanced run prevention metrics tell a different story – he’s the owner of a 5.03 ERA and a 4.81 SIERA. Rodon hasn’t been missing as many bats as prior years (9.4 SwStr%, 19.1 K%) and that’s going to be a problem facing a potent Red Sox offense. Aside from this being a good hitting matchup for Mookie, it’s also a very favorable running matchup as Rodon has struggled mightily preventing stolen bases throughout his career despite being a lefty.
The Free Spot on the Slate
For some reason that I (and no one else for that matter) can really understand, Chen is one of the best pitchers in the league at home. I’ve looked through everything and still cannot find a reason why, but I will roll with 100% of him at home until it stops working. On the year, Chen owns a 1.86 ERA and a 23.1% k rate (compared to a 9+ ERA and 12.6% k rate on the road). He is one of the cheapest plays on the entire slate and you should lock him in with no questions asked.
Your Punt SP #2 Arm
Call me a homer if you want, but Poncedeleon makes the most sense if you want to punt at pitcher tonight. Don’t be alarmed that he hasn’t pitched in the major leagues in ten days; it was simply a numbers issue. The Cardinals sent him down to the minors for a week until rosters expanded, and he did make a start on his regular return for Triple-A Memphis. He had a 27% strikeout rate and an ERA around 2.00 for Memphis this season, and he’s clearly mega talented. He dwarfs a guy like Estrada when it comes to upside, and he struck out eight Dodgers in just four innings in his last start. The matchup isn’t quite as good as it would have been a week ago with the Reds getting healthy (Suarez and Votto have returned), but I’m happy to go here as a punt in all formats. I’m also going to the game tonight, so I need something to root for! Let’s go Ponce!
A Vintage Game Awaits
While Kershaw may not be the same level of dominant that he was a couple years ago, Kershaw is still an elite major league pitcher. The pitch count should not be a concern in a game that carries massive importance, and Kershaw has given up two or fewer runs in seven straight starts. He has a 25/1 K/BB ratio in the last three. His xFIP is back down below three at 2.95 for the year, and the 25% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate are fantastic. Again, it’s not the same level of dominance we are used to, but it’s still pretty darn good. Give me all the Kershaw in a huge game.
Fine Value for a Young Slugger
The Royals draw a favorable matchup today against the homer-prone Dylan Bundy. The Baltimore starter has allowed an eye-popping 34 home runs this season, which is five more than any other pitcher in baseball. As such, we need to target power, power, power here… and the Royals don’t have much. However, for the second straight day, I will be prioritizing Ryan O’Hearn as a value. Since joining the major league roster, Ryan O’Hearn has a .347 batting average, .439 on-base percentage, .429 ISO, and .499 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Kid can hit. Kid can certainly hit against Bundy.
A Great Matchup for this Lefty
Zach Eflin got off to a pretty good start this season, but his form his regressed quite a bit in July and August. His extreme splits have also returned, as he has been solid against RHBs but has allowed a .362 wOBA and 21.4% line drive rate to LHBs. I will avoid the Chicago lefties tonight, but the lefties are squarely in play, with Daniel Murphy being my favorite of the bunch. He has found new life as a member of the Cubs and has multi-hit games in six of his nine starts for Chicago. He’s a fine play in all formats this evening.
More MARP Bombs!
Matt Carpenter was a core play on Friday, and he did not disappoint, as he hit his 35th home run of the season in the St. Louis romp over Homer Bailey and company. You know what they say – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Carpenter continues to rake and make a dark horse case for NL MVP, and I have him tagged as a core play once again for Saturday. Castillo has massive traditional splits, allowing a .386 wOBA to left-handed batters this season, which is more than 100 points worse than what he has allowed to right-handed batters. His ground ball rate dips to under 40%, and he allows a ton of hard contact. Ride the wave with MARP, and let’s hope he continues to smash!
Not a risk free Friday night forecast
There is rain potential in several spots on Friday night with impact potential in a couple of places. Kevin’s updated forecast is now available on the Weather page and premium subscribers can join him for important updates on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Same-handed batters have been better against this pitcher in a great spot tonight
The run line for the Twins is climbing and up to 5.52 for their trip to Texas against Drew Hutchison, who has allowed has allowed 17 runs through four starts, striking out more than two just once. Combined with his bullpen work, batters from either side are above a .370 wOBA against him, though xwOBA favors RHBs, pushing them up above .400, as there’s a 12 point difference in his hard hit rate, favoring same-handed batters. Eddie Rosario (128 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) is still the top bat here, though he’s down to a .333 xwOBA against RHP this year as well. Mitch Garver (127 wRC+, .178 ISO), Miguel Sano (90 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Tyler Austin (88 wRC+, .245 ISO) have all at least shown power from the right-hand side.
Other tagged players: Mitch Garver, Tyler Austin, Eddie Rosario, Drew Hutchison Top hitter in a top spot
St Louis is a fairly negative run environment, but some heat and humidity in the forecast gives a small bump to bats tonight. Homer Bailey gives a large one. Batters from either side of the plate range between a .365 to .395 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Cardinals have a 5.23 implied run line, which places them among the top five offenses on the board. All the Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP this season) please with sides of Matt Adams (128 wRC+, .260 ISO), Jose Martinez (132 wRC+, .175 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (112 wRC+, .237 ISO).
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Tyler O'Neill, Matt Adams, Homer Bailey A strong spot for a few bats who hit same-handed pitching very well
Houston is the most or at the very least one of the most negative run environments in baseball, yet the Astros are fifth highest on the board at 5.22 runs against Jaime Barria, who has a significant reverse platoon split this year (RHBs .392 wOBA). Not as potent as last season, they still have three batters who have been extremely successful against RHP this year. Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .232 ISO) has been the total package. Jose Altuve (148 wRC+, .140 ISO) has lost some power. Tyler White (181 wRC+, .346 ISO) has been a small sample superstar, but beware his 17.4 Hard% over the last week (223 wRC+).
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Tyler White, Jaime Barria Not the lineup anyone expected to like today
Most players probably weren’t expecting to value a depleted Kansas City lineup when they woke up this morning. Finding them with a 4.97 implied run line is a surprise until you look beyond this offense and realize they’re facing Andrew Cashner (batters from both sides above a .345 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Baltimore bullpen (6.41 FIP, 6.3 K-BB% last 30 days) in Kansas City, already one of just four positive run environments on the board with humidity and winds blowing out to left at 15 mph. Ryan O’Heran (206 wRC+, .409 ISO vs RHP) has been a small sample superstar thus far and hits cleanup tonight at a low price. Brian Goodwin (117 wRC+, .192 ISO), Alex Gordon (112 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Whit Merrifield (106 wRC+, .109 ISO) have been competent against RHP as well.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin, Whit Merrifield, Andrew Cashner Rookie starter struggling with contact in worst run environment
Not only is Texas the most positive run environment on the board, it’s one of just four clearly positive run environments at all. No surprise to find the Rangers atop the board at 5.72 runs against a rookie, who has missed some bats in the minors, but now has a double digit walk rate (13%+) across three levels of baseball this year. When your most frequent batted ball allowed is line drives (37.5%) through two starts that have lasted a combined 6.1 innings with a 54.2 Hard%, that’s not a good start. Things aren’t likely to improve in Texas. Joey Gallo (122 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP this season) is the upside bat against a pitcher with just eight ground balls so far, despite both being left-handed. Jurickson Profar (112 wRC+, .197 ISO) is second by both wRC+ and ISO vs LHP this season. It’s not that this is a particularly potent Texas offense against LHP, but it’s just a great spot. The majority of this lineup has some value at reasonable cost here.
Other tagged players: Stephen Gonsalves, Jurickson Profar Major platoon issues could be dangerous against difficult lineup
The line on Jhoulys Chacin is that he has a massive platoon split (LHBs .336 wOBA, RHBs .249 wOBA this season). Although xwOBA raises both numbers at least 20 points, a large split remains intact. The line on the Nationals is that they evenly balance three very good hitters against RHP through the top five. Adam Eaton (135 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP this season), Bryce Harper (136 wRC+, .274 ISO) and Juan Soto (145 wRC+, .213 ISO) are your top bats here. Anthony Rendon (127 wRC+, .201 ISO) has a 202 wRC+ over the last week and should be playable at a reasonable price as well.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Jhoulys Chacin Pitcher with no split against a lineup that handles same-handed pitching well
The Yankees are second highest of five teams above five implied runs tonight, sitting at 5.54 at home against Jordan Zimmermann, who has been marginally better than his previous seasons in Detroit, but is still in a spot where the Yankees should hurt him here. He doesn’t have much of a split. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .323 and .337 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, though RHBs actually have a hard hit rate five points higher. That works out fine for the top Yankee bats, mostly from the right side of the plate. Giancarlo Stanton (116 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) does have three HRs against ZImmermann in 37 PAs, but that’s about his average production. The offense has really been carries by two rookies in the absence of the two rookies who carried it last year. Miguel Andujar (133 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (123 wRC+, .198 ISO) have lived up to the hype. Aaron Hicks (130 wRC+, .195 ISO) adds some potency from the left side. Luke Voit has a .534 wOBA and .504 xwOBA against RHP in fewer than 30 PAs so far, but offers salary relief for stackers.
Other tagged players: Jordan Zimmermann, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks