DFS Alerts
Cheap Power
In case anyone has somehow missed the memo: Homer Bailey is not a good pitcher. Bailey has really struggled with the long ball this season as he’s given up 1.96 HRs-per-nine innings. Looking for cheap power against a pitcher like Bailey makes sense and Matt Adams fits the profile. Adams is still skilled offensively versus right handed pitching – he’s the owner of a 128 wRC+ and .260 ISO this season. His season numbers aren’t far off from his career numbers of 124 wRC+ and .216 ISO. You’re not going to find that type of power for that cheap elsewhere.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Washington appears to be the spot tonight
On a 15 game slate, every bullpen is available to be picked on, including the worst of the bunch (Orioles 6.41 FIP, 6.3 K-BB% last 30 days). However, Andrew Cashner precedes them against a depleted Kansas City lineup. The Brewers (5.30 FIP, 11.7 K-BB%) are a surprise entrant as the second worst pen by FIP over the last month. Jhoulys Chacin starts in Washington. The Reds (5.24 FIP, 11.3 K-BB%) will back Homer Bailey in St Louis. Tanner Roark starts for the Nationals in that game (5.18 FIP, 14.8 K-BB%). They’re not a bad pen by K-BB, but did just trade away Ryan Madsen today. There are additionally, six pitchers on this board (Framber Valdez, Brett Kennedy, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Hutchison, Michael Kopech, Stephen Gonsalves), all with five starts or fewer and averaging five or fewer innings per start. Valdez, Kennedy and Glasnow have fantastic bullpens. There may be some upside against the other three. Hutchison and Gonsalves are facing each other in Texas, a major positive to start with, While both pens are above a 4.40 FIP over the last month, both pens are also above a 14 K-BB%, the Rangers with an impressive 17.7% mark over that span. Kopech has talent with an average bullpen behind him (4.11 FIP, 14.8 K-BB%), but faces a mighty Boston lineup.
Cheap Arlington Exposure
The best offensive environment of Friday’s slate is down in Texas as the Twins/Rangers have a game total set at 11 runs. You’ll want to grab exposure to both teams in this game and luckily for us there are a couple of cheap ways to do so, including Elvis Andrus for the Rangers. Stephen Gonsalvez has really struggled through his first two Major League starts and is in a tough spot again for the Twins lefty. Andrus is simply priced too cheap for the matchup + context and should be a center piece of cash game lineups.
Mid-range pitchers offer some value with some risk
Without an exceptional value among tonight’s highest priced arms, paying down for pitching is a reasonable consideration tonight, though there’s significant risk in a lot of those spots as well. Nick Pivetta continues to have trouble keeping runs off the board, but also has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (28.2%). The .337 BABIP simply has no basis. In fact, his .306 wOBA suggests a much better pitcher. The Cubs may be difficult (11.7 K-BB%), but it’s not an overall terrible spot. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 17 innings and another seven unearned runs with just 12 strikeouts (91 BF). He has shown some upside this year and is in a high upside matchup (White Sox 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP) with a park upgrade tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not reached even 90 pitches in an outing since April. He does have a 29.7 K% on the season and 26.9 K% since returning from the DL, though with just a league average SwStr%. He has the best xwOBA on the board (.273) by over 20 points and that number drops to .225 in his five home starts. The Diamondbacks are a better offense vs LHP (101 wRC+ and a split best 26.7 Hard-Soft%), but they have a team 53 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% and 8.0 HR/FB over the last week and find themselves in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. Andrew Suarez and Antonio Senzatela are below average pitchers, but in great matchups and great parks at a low cost. Jameson Taillon has eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts. If he can sustain a strikeout rate even a little above average, he’s a useful arm now that he’s pitching deeper into games (at least six innings in six straight and eight of his last nine starts). His .298 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but are not an above average offense against them.
Other tagged players: Nathan Eovaldi, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Andrew Suarez, Antonio Senzatela, Jameson Taillon Nothing Extravagant
Brett Kennedy will go overlooked but I think there’s a chance he’s the best starting pitcher taking the mound in this game. Kennedy has extremely unimpressive numbers through his four Major League starts but he’s surely not as bad as his 7.58 ERA would indicate. Friday’s home matchup against the Rockies is by far the best matchup he’s had as a Big League pitcher as the Rockies rank dead last in wRC+ versus right handed pitchers. I’m not expecting an extravagant strikeout performance out of Kennedy, even though the Rockies do have the ninth highest strikeout rate (23.5%) in the league versus RHP but this shapes up as a spot where Kennedy can return value on the slate’s cheapest price tag.
Red Flags
This write up is going to be a little different. It’s more of a caution post than the typical recommendation. The way things are shaping up for Friday’s slate it appears that Antonio Senzatela may end up being SP2 chalk on multi-pitching sites. I’ll admit, he passes the eye test: cheap and facing a whiff-heavy Padres lineup. But here’s the thing – I’m not sure Senzatela even has a whole lot of strikeout potential in this matchup. The Rockies righty owns a slate worst 6.8% swinging strike rate. Heck, his well below league average 16.8% strikeout rate may even be a bit inflated with his inability to generate swings and misses. I won’t go as far to say that Senzatela is “bad chalk” but I will say I’m going to be trying to find a different SP2 for cash games.
Lowest strikeout rate among high priced pitchers may be the best value
Four pitchers meet or exceed a $10K price point on both sites tonight and while three of them are among the top six in strikeout rate tonight, only one of them is above 25.3% and the most interesting one might be outside that group at just 23.6%. That’s because Zack Wheeler pitches in San Francisco (15.7 K-BB% vs RHP) against an offense without two of the top bats (McCutchen and Posey) anymore. He has a .244 xwOBA over the last month and an 84.7 mph aEV on the season. Over his last 15 starts, he has a 24.1 K% with an ERA and FIP well below three. Zack Greinke has gotten at least two outs in the sixth inning in all but three starts this season and has recorded a seventh inning out in seven of his last 10. He also has the fifth best strikeout rate on the board (25.3%), a 3.43 SIERA and pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. However, he has to face the Dodgers (112 wRC+, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP, 141 wRC+, 37.1 Hard-Soft% last seven days) and has just a 21.9 K% with a 3.89 SIERA over the last month. Luis Severino has not completed six innings in three straight starts, but seems to be getting himself back on track (4 ER, 16 K, 46 BF last two starts). His 28.2 K% is the highest among high priced pitchers and he hosts the Tigers tonight (< 80 wRC+, < 10 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP). A bit concerning that his ground ball rate is now a full 10 points below last season and even below that in each of his last four starts, but the strikeouts are back up and he should be successful in this spot. Corey Kluber had one of his worst starts of the season in Kansas City of all places last time out (5.1 IP – 5 ER). His 24.6 K% this season is a significant drop from last season, but still the sixth best mark on this board. He’s still a quality pitcher and one of just five below a .300 xwOBA (more than one starts) on this board, but he’s in kind of a rough spot at home against the red-hot Rays (138 wRC+ last seven days). This is a scrappy, league average offense with a significant park boost tonight.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber He's Going Deep
Mike Leake continues to throw his sinker a lot this season, and Oakland is very good against sinkers and pitchers that work low in the zone. Khris Davis is a top three hitter for me tonight, and I don’t expect a lot of people to be on him. I like Chapman a lot as well. Davis has a .397 wOBA with a .520 CXwOBA and a .282 ISO against sinkers since the start of 2016. Leake has used his sinker 36.5% of the time this season, and he has a .420 CXwOBA with a .166. With the lack of strikeouts that Leake gets and the amount of hard contact projected in this lineup, I really like Oakland to hit some home runs tonight.
A Lot Of Upside In This Matchup
I feel like the line is too low in the Phillies game, and I’m hoping they fly under the radar because of it. Wilson Ramos is expensive on DraftKings, and people don’t like playing catchers on FanDuel. This makes him one of my favorite plays on the slate. He has a .258 ISO with a .400 wOBA and a 43% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Quintana has really struggled with righties, and he’s getting a ballpark downgrade in this spot. He has a .344 wOBA with a .199 ISO and a 19.4% strikeout rate against righties. I’ll be looking to go overweight on the Phillies tonight.
Cheap Power, Good Context
Sano is stupid cheap on FanDuel and merely ‘cheap’ on DraftKings. The Twins slugger has had a down year offensively but has shown a ton of power (.229 ISO) versus right handed pitching throughout the course of his career. The Twins get a favorable park shift with this game being played in Arlington and they have one of three implied run totals north of five runs on Friday night. Sano should see plenty of run producing opportunites against below average pitching and will be a staple of my cash game lineups.
The Question Is Legit
Is Nathan Eovaldi broken? That is a legit question right now, but no one is talking about him in a matchup against the White Sox. Pedro Martinez noticed something with Eovaldi and worked with him earlier this week, and maybe that’s something we can look forward to tonight. It’s a risky spot but it’s a spot that can win a tournament as well. The projected starters for the White Sox have a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There are six projected starters that have a strikeout rate over 25% this season against righties. I’m concerned about Eovaldi’s stuff right now, but he does have a 20.3% strikeout rate with a 3.3% walk rate and a 3.99 xFIP on the season.
Great Overall Matchup
When searching for upside tonight, Suarez continues to stand out for me against the Mets. The projected starters have a 24.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, and everyone outside of McNeil has a strikeout rate over 21.5%. Suarez has been much better against lefties this season and will face four lefties in this lineup tonight. This ballpark has helped him throughout the season against righties, and with the lack of power in this lineup, it certainly benefits Suarez. Suarez has a 3.75 xFIP with a 51% ground ball rate and a 20.6% strikeout rate on the season.
Great Stolen Base Matchup
The Indians could be a sneaky stack, at least I’m hoping that they are sneaky. The two issues for Tyler Glasnow throughout his career have been walks and stolen bases. The Indians draw plenty of walks, they have speed at the top of their lineup, and they absolutely mash right-handed pitching. They are also playing in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. Francisco Lindor brings stolen base upside to the table and he also has quite a bit of power against right-handed pitching.
Nice Upside in a Fine Matchup
It hasn’t been a great year for Quintana, and he’s definitely a pitcher we can target offense against. The Phillies profile a bit weaker against LHP, but they do have one of the highest team walk rates in the league against lefties. That could be a problem for Quintana, whose command has failed often this year. The primary appeal here resides with Rhys Hoskins. He has immense power and a great batting eye. He has been a bad luck victim with a .260 BABIP against lefties this year, so his batting average isn’t the greatest. However, the peripherals are solid with a .375 wOBA and .274 ISO against lefties. This is a great spot for a breakout game, and he’s a core play for me in all formats today.
Ride the Form and the Trend
The Yankees are one of the top stacking options of the slate. Is it just me, or do they seem to have a more favorable matchup every single slate? I suppose Jordan Zimmermann isn’t quite as bad as Francisco Liriano, but they are certainly two very hittable pitchers. In addition to having a high fly-ball rate and a high hard contact rate, Zimmermann has allowed a .320+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I always love playing Giancarlo Stanton against low-strikeout pitchers with high fly-ball rates and will be continuing that tradition tonight.