DFS Alerts
a Power Bat vs. a Gascan
I could sit here for the next hour and not come up with a compelling argument that Hess should be pitching in the Majors. He only owns a 15.3% k rate and a whopping 5.76 xFIP. he doesn’t give a up a huge amount of hard contact (31%) but he gives up a lot of fly balls (46.9%) doesn’t get a whole lot of soft contact either (18.9%). Dozier on the year though owns a 50% hard hit rate vs. RHP and a 42.1% FB%. Anytime I can get a high K guy who crushes the ball against a low K pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls I go for it and you aren’t going to find this situation too often with a 3.6k priced guy. Lock in Dozier on the slate and stack up these Royals.
A Cheap Consistent Bat
Look, there isn’t many numbers to point to this year that will tell you that Beltre is a good hitter this year, but this guy does have a career full of great stats that I’m willing to bank on in great hitting conditions and a cheap price tag. It should be around 90 degrees over in arlington today and humid going against a a bullpen game for the Twins. Just don’t overthink this spot and take the savings in a huge hitting spot.
Hot Hitter vs. a Bad Pitcher
Since the all star break, Beckham has shown a whole lot more power (.085 ISO Pre All Star vs. .193 ISO Post All Star) and he gets a matchup vs. a terrible pitcher in Jorge Lopez. In the small sample size we do have with Lopez, he has given up a 46.6% hard contact rate and is only striking guys out at a 16.7% clip. Beckham on the other hand, has be a big strikeout guy (25% vs. RHP) and that should be negated by Lopez low K numbers. Add in that the KC bullpen is terrible and you have a near guarantee that Beckham should hit value at his low 3.3k pricetag over on DK.
A Cheap GPP Pitcher
This is not the best matchup in the world for Boyd, but there has been a lot of upside with pitcher facing hte Yankees lately. They do have Sanchez back which makes this a much riskier matchup, but there is still some upside in this matchup. The projected lineup has a 22% K rate vs. RHP and Boyd on the year owns a 21.6% K rate and one of the biggest strengths for the Yankees (10.5% walk rate) is mostly negated with Boyd’s low walk rate. Know that this matchup could turn bad real quick, but there isn’t much upside in this price range and Boyd provides you with it so you can pay up for bats.
A Cheap Upside Pitcher
This slate is not fantastic for cheap pitcher, but Weaver is one of the few viable ones. On the year, he hasn’t been spectacular, nor has he been great lately, but he has shown upside at times this year (3 22+ DK point games in his last 12). He has a 20.1% k rate and 4.44 xFIP on the year, but Vegas seems to think that he’s better than that in this matchup with a sub 4 implied team total for the Reds. While most of the bats don’t k at a huge clip there are 4 bats with a 20%+ k rate and only 2 bats with a .200+ ISO which should keep Weaver from getting rocked. If you’re paying down at pitcher, Weaver may be your best bet.
Liam Hendriks will start for the Athletics on Saturday: Daniel Mengden will follow
The Oakland Athletics have become the latest in a long line of MLB clubs to utilize an opening bullpen arm and will now force Daniel Mengden to come on in relief Saturday evening to work a majority of the team’s innings, opposed to making his originally scheduled start. He’ll be replaced on the mound at the outset by Liam Hendriks, who, like Gausman, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump shouldn’t alter the projections of the Seattle Mariners hitters in any significant fashion, if at all. That said, still be sure to double check out the Starting Lineups page and projections in LinuepHQ for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: Jane Lee via Twitter Other tagged players: Daniel Mengden
Boom or Bust Play
Look, I like all the KC bats 1-5, but Dozier may be the best GPP play. He should draw lower ownership than the rest and he’s more of a boom/bust play than they other guys. On the year he owns a 30% k rate vs. RHP and Bundy may be giving up bombs by the boatload this year, but he is striking out righties at a pretty high clip (29.6%). There is a decent chance of Dozier going 0 for vs. Bundy, but the shot of a HR is just as high and after Bundy gets taken out of the game the BAL bullpen is absolutely horrid.
WAY TOO CHEAP!!!!!!
So, there is no conceivable reason that Forsythe should be this cheap in this type of matchup. His numbers on the year are not great (.076 ISO & .302 wOBA), but he is batting 2nd in the lineup and the hitting conditions are fantastic. It’s hot and humid so the ball should be flying out of the ballpark here and Gallardo is the opposing starting pitcher. Gallardo on the year owns a piss poor 5.38 xFIP, 14.2% k rate, 11.2% walk rate, and a not great 36.5% hard hit rate. If you need to save some money on bats on this slate you won’t find a better cheap option than Forsythe.
Decisions, Decisions
Deciding if you should pitch Kershaw is going to be one of the harder decisions to make on Saturday’s slate. Kershaw has settled down nicely after an unexciting stretch of fantasy performances – he’s topped 27 DK points in each of his last three starts and posted a strikeout rate north of 26% in all of them. Kershaw is the owner of Saturday’s top overall projection but is priced significantly higher than the other cash game options. There seems to be enough hitting value where you can make Kershaw/Gray work in cash games but if you’re looking to roster more heavy hitters you’ll have to fade Kershaw to do so.
Perceived Matchup
I am a bit curious to see how people treat Rangers hitters on this slate. Despite a difficult matchup against Berrios, the Rangers are one of only three teams with an implied run total at five runs or more. Berrios has struggled a bit of late as he’s posted a 4.79 SIERA and 20.4 K% over his last five starts. Andrus, as well as a couple other Rangers hitters, are cheap enough where I’m considering them in cash games despite a perceived tough matchup against Berrios.
Good Matchup, Favorable Environment
Just like Friday night, Arlington is one of the premier offensive environments with Yovani Gallardo and the Rangers hosting the Minnesota Twins. Eddie Rosario is expected to remain out for this series which has propelled Robbie Grossman to third in the order for the Twins. Grossman is nothing more than a league average offensive player but is cheap across the industry ($2,100 FD, $3,700 DK) and has a good matchup in a favorable offensive environment.
Power Bat in a Plus Matchup
Look, Davis has been absolute trash this season, but a lot of that has to do with his sky high 35.7% K rate vs. RHP. If you look at how he’s hit the ball when he actually puts it in play, you’ll see that he has a .428 CXwOBA and today he draws a matchup against Heath Fillmyer. Fillmyer is a low K pitcher (13.8% on the season) and he gives up a lot of hard contact (40.6%). This is a perfect spot for Davis to crush his 3.5k price tag over on DK.
A Power Bat vs. A Guy Who Gives Up a Lot of Bombs
Look, maybe O’Hearns is due for some negative regression and maybe Bundy is due for some positive regression, but at this point it appears that Bundy is the new James Shields and O’Hearns is the new Giancarlo Stanton. On the year, Bundy is giving up more home runs that anyone else and its not even close (2.18 HR/9). Add in that Bundy is a lot worse vs. lefties than he is vs. righties by a large margin and that O’Hearns owns a .429 ISO vs. RHP since he came into the league and you have a recipe for the top scoring play on the entire slate. Don’t fade O’Hearns for any reason!
Strong Advanced Metrics
Clayton Kershaw edges Gray out in terms of raw projection but Gray is the top point-per-dollar starting pitching option of the slate. For a pitcher with a 4.76 ERA, Gray’s advanced metrics are phenomenal – Gray is the owner of a 3.42 SIERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 13.2 SwStr%. It’s no secret that a matchup against the Padres, in San Diego, is one of the best matchups a starting pitcher can get. The Padres own the league’s highest strikeout rate versus right handed pitching (25.9%) to pair with the third worst wRC+ (81). Gray will be one of my SP options on DraftKings and can be considered in cash games on FanDuel as well.
A Super Cheap Viable Pitcher
Erlins numbers on the season have been pretty good, but his work as an actual starting pitcher haven’t been fantastic. However, I believe that Erlin is due for some positive regression and the Rockies are not nearly as good on the road as they are in Coors. Erlin on the year is not giving up a large amount of hard contact (34.6%) nor is he walking any guys (2.7% walk rate on the year). Anytime you have a guy not giving up hard contact and not walking guys he’s bound to do alright especially in a decent match up. At just 4.9k over on DK, he is one of the top pt/$ plays at pitcher on the entire slate.