DFS Alerts
Pitcher allows harder contact to LHBs than his .300 wOBA suggests
John Gant has been a useful spot starter for the Cardinals. Between those 13 starts and his work in the bullpen, he has a 19.8 K% and .312 xwOBA, but Statcast suggests he’s been a bit lucky to preserve a .300 wOBA against LHBs with a 57.4 GB% and 39.6 GB% that has his xwOBA sitting at .347. Adam Frazier (118 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP this season) and Gregory Polanco (125 wRC+, 265 ISO) are both above a 170 wRC+ over the last week. The former costs just $2.9K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, John Gant
Potentially Underowned Stack
The Red Sox are one of the top stacking options of the slate. The problem is that we don’t have many value pitchers available to make the stack work. It’s hard to afford the one-through-four or one-through-five Red Sox stacks tonight. With that said, there is certainly merit to the stack if you can make it work. Lucas Giolito has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a .391 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Andrew Benintendi, and Mitch Moreland are two of the best plays at their respective positions. I should also mention that Giolito is the worst pitcher in this slate when it comes to stolen bases allowed, which makes Mookie Betts an elite option as well. He could steal multiple bags tonight.
Great Road Splits and a Great Matchup
My list of potential pitching targets tonight isn’t very long, but Marquez is right near the top of it. His numbers as a whole are more than respectable this season — 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 47%. Keep in mind that half of these numbers were accumulated in starts in Coors Field. If we look strictly at his road numbers, Marquez has a 3.32 FIP with a strikeout rate of 26%. He has averaged 21 fantasy points per game on the road. Now he draws an elite matchup against the Padres, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .287 with a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Pens offer few opportunities tonight
Four teams are above a five FIP over the last 30 days, just one of those teams has a single digit K-BB% though. The Orioles are not on the slate, unfortunately. In fact, none of those teams are, so let’s focus on starters who fail to pitch deep into games. Eric Lauer is the only pitcher on the board averaging fewer than five innings per start, but has the best bullpen by K-BB (22.1%) over the last month backing him (3.37 FIP). Francisco Liriano and Robbie Ray are averaging almost exactly five innings per start. Everyone else is at 5.1 or more. To be honest, players probably don’t care too much about bullpens with Liriano in New York and Ray in Los Angeles. Both are facing predominantly right-handed powerhouse lineups, though Ray does so in a much more negative run environment with a much better bullpen (3.54 FIP, 13.6 K-BB%), though the Tigers (4.43 FIP) are actually very close by K-BB (13.4%).
Two pitchers below $10K pitching deep into games
If players don’t like the highest priced options tonight, there really seems to be two places to look for less than $10K. German Marquez is not either $1K or $1.5K cheaper than that, but probably deserves to be more at this point. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of six starts, allowing just 10 runs over that span with a 24.2 K-BB%. He’s also in San Diego (Padres 82 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP). The cheaper option, especially on DraftKings ($7K) is Joe Musgrove in a St Louis. It’s a bit of a park upgrade and he’s gone at least seven innings in eight of his 15 starts with a below average, but useful 19 K%. Both pitchers have a .297 xwOBA that’s tied for third best on the board. The Cardinals are essentially a league average offense vs RHP (96 wRC+, 13.8 K-BB%, 13.7 HR/FB), but there is a slight chance they could be without Matt Carpenter, who left the game with a “24 hour virus” last night. Musgrove is still playable here regardless, but lack of a 100% Carpenter would give him an extra advantage.
Other tagged players: Joe Musgrove Contact prone offenses facing all three of tonight's high priced pitchers
Thursday night’s eight game slate features three pitchers meeting or exceeding the $10K price point and all three of those pitchers do so on both sites. Justin Verlander is the biggest name on the board. His 33.1 K% leads the board by more than three full points. His 2.81 SIERA is best by more than half a run. His .257 xwOBA is the only one below .290. However, he has allowed 15 runs over his last 19.1 innings. He still has a 25.9 K-BB% over that span, but has allowed eight HRs despite maintaining a league average 33.3 Hard%. He has just a 25% ground ball rate over those four starts, the last of which was against these Angels (6 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 6 K). He’s going to need to do better than that to pay off his price tonight, but actually gets a small park bump at home in Houston. The strikeout rate is good news, while the HR rate should regress. Mike Foltynewicz (28.4 K%, 3.66 SIERA, .292 xwOBA) is a bit more expensive than J.A. Happ (27.2 K%, 3.55 SIERA, .310 xwOBA). Both have a SwStr rate below 11%, which makes it difficult to support their high strikeout rates, though Happ is the higher at 10.8%. Foltynewicz additionally has an ERA a run below his SIERA and the Cubs (11.7 K-BB% vs RHP) are not going to make it any easier on him. Happ faces the Tigers, who have just a 20.6 K% vs LHP, but also just an 8.9 HR/FB against them, making Yankee Stadium a little less dangerous. None of the offenses facing high priced pitchers strike out more than 21% against the opposing handedness, but if Verlander is going to be less popular due to recent performance, he’s probably the play here.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Mike Foltynewicz Favorite Ace for this fine Thursday Evening
Justin Verlander has a slightly higher projection tonight, but Happ is my preferred number one. There aren’t many value plays at hitter tonight (at least not yet), so we can use the discount that we get going Happ over Verlander. He comes into the game in excellent form and his numbers as a whole are solid — 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Not only that, but he draws one of the top matchups on the board. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .292 with a strikeout rate of 23% against left-handed pitching.
Eugenio Suarez (back spasms) scratched Thursday; Dilson Herrera replaces
Suarez has been scratched from the Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers due to mid-back spasms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Dilson Herrera, who will play third base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Phillip Ervin and Curt Casali each up one batting position to fourth and fifth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Reds order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Wade Miley at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon via Twitter Other tagged players: Dilson Herrera
Stick With The Top Spot
In building a Core tonight, we can look to spread out among the top offenses, or to focus in on one. In cash games, I’ll try and spread it out, but in tournaments, I want to pick a spot to go heavy on, and for me that will be the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox. Francisco Liriano is the worse pitcher among he and Lucas Giolito right now, and that sends me towards the Yankees. We are still looking at a small sample size on Luke Voit, but he should hit in the middle of the lineup, and in 59 PA since last season against lefties, he has a big 42% hard hit rate and in his minor league career was never too much of a strikeout batter. Even if he is a bit of a higher strikeout risk at this level, the low 17.6% K and high 13.9% BB of Liriano against righties helps him here. There are going to be baserunners tonight, giving added upside to all these Yankees in runs and RBI opportunities. If you can save some salary while getting middle of the lineup exposure to the top offense of the night, I would say do it.
Elite Hitting Environment
to having one of the highest walk rates of any starter in baseball, Liriano has allowed a .404 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Yankees might throw nine righties at Liriano tonight, which is only going to lead to good things for this offense. Giancarlo Stanton is one of the best hitters in baseball when facing a southpaw. On the season, he owns a .451 xwOBA and a .336 ISO against lefties.
Site Specific Values
With the better recent pitching of Lucas Giolito, the Red Sox fall well behind the Yankees tonight for overall upside, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t look for some Boston exposure where possible. Giolito has far lower strikeout ability to lefties at just 13.2%, while being unable to keep the ball on the ground. The ballpark in Chicago is a huge upgrade over Fenway for left-handed home runs, giving Mitch Moreland and these Red Sox lefties plenty of upside tonight. Moreland with his .228 ISO against righties is underpriced on FD at just $3,000 and playable in all formats.
Save Some Money Out West
The cheap pitching options are not enticing tonight, and my priority is to get up to the upper mid-tier of pitching while still getting a couple top bats. That means we’re going to need a few value bats. This Kyle Seager salary on DK/FDRFT is silly low, and an easy fit in all formats. On FD, it’s a little easier to build tonight, but we still need a couple sub-$3k options with some upside. He’s no superstar, but he’s a quality major league hitter with a .192 ISO, 39% hard hits and 79% contact rate against right-handed pitching. Frankie Montas was sent to the minors, and is only back due to injuries in the Oakland rotation. He has struck out just 12.8% of lefties this season while allowing 45% hard hits.
Worth The Money
The Yankees have let us down the past two nights, but there is no reason to overthink this one. Even with Stanton sort of struggling, he still has a 45% hard hit rate and .248 ISO since the All-Star Break. We’re just so spoiled by his eliteness, that it seems disappointing when he goes a week without a home run. Stanton’s numbers against left-handed pitching are off the charts again this season, and lefties don’t come much worse than Francisco Liriano. His awful control gives Stanton a very high on base and run scoring upside, and if he gets a pitch to hit, Liriano loses his ground ball and soft contact ability to righties. Fire up Stanton in all formats if you can fit him.
Matchup + Salary +Skills
It kind of feels like German Marquez has come out of nowhere, but he’s been great on the road all season, with a 25.7% K rate, 6.8% BB and a 3.48 xFIP away from Coors Field this season. He has been getting better as the season moves on, with a 29% K rate and 13.3% swinging strikes since the All-Star Break. He gets a huge ballpark upgrade and faces a high strikeout Padres team that doesn’t have the left-handed splits to hurt the wide splits of Marquez. I like him in tournaments everywhere and as an SP2 in cash games on DK/FDRFT.
The Ace Of Aces
We have a good pitching slate with a solid upper mid-tier, good enough that I wouldn’t call Justin Verlander a must play tonight, but he is clearly the best pitcher on this slate. His 33.1% K rate is the 4th highest in the league and easily the highest on this slate. He has allowed some runs recently, but there has been no drop in his skills, and if anything, he’s pitching even better recently, with a 35.4% K rate and just 4.4% walks since the All-Star Break. While the Angels are not a high strikeout team, they aren’t as tough as they used to be, with an average 21.6% K rate from the projected lineup against righties.