DFS Alerts
A Sneaky One-Off Play?
Most people tend to avoid hitters against Robbie Ray, but I don’t mind taking power one-off bats against him. Ray struggles with his control and hasn’t been good this season, and we all know that he allows a boatload of hard contact. Matt Kemp still has some pop left in the tank with a .245 ISO against LHP for 2018, and I like him as a sub-5% owned tournament dart this evening.
Target the Lefties and the Power
Seattle might go a bit over-looked tonight in a west coast game, but they are a fine tournament stack against Montas, who has taken his lumps this season. His SIERA sits at 4.84, and he has allowed a whopping 47% hard contact rate for the year. Lefties have been particularly problematic and own a 31% line drive rate against him. Yikes. Seager and Span are cost-controlled options, and I like the point per dollar upside of Seager in this matchup. The power bat of Nelson Cruz is also a great addition for stack upside.
Other tagged players: Denard Span, Nelson Cruz The Top Stack of the Night
There are all sorts of possibilities for production here, with the Yankees taking on the ghost of Francisco Liriano. Luke Voit is hitting .342 with a .969 OPS since joining the Yankees, and the Cardinals gave him away for a bag of peanuts. No, I’m not bitter about that at all. Until his price rises, he remains a fine value play against left-handed pitching. I would also find it very surprising if Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t score some semblance of fantasy points tonight. Francisco Liriano has little to no command of his pitches these days, so it’s very possible that Stanton just walks a ton in this game. However, there’s tons of upside with his power, especially if Liriano misses location IN the strike zone. Stanton owns a .440 wOBA and .333 ISO agianst LHP this year and is an elite option on this shorter Thursday slate. You can add in the likes of Walker, Torres, Andujar, or pretty much anyone to a Yankees stack. When Liriano is bad, things tend to go south quickly.
Other tagged players: Luke Voit, Neil Walker, Gleyber Torres A Rising Price Tag, But Deserving of Accolades
German Marquez doesn’t get much attention because he pitches in Colorado, but the guy has made huge strides in 2018. His strikeout rate is up to 25%, and it’s not a mirage, either, as he owns a solid 11% swinging strike rate for the year. His 3.71 SIERA and 3.55 xFIP are among the better marks in the league, and this is a guy who pitches half his games at Coors Field. He gets a tremendous park bump tonight with a matchup in San Diego against the feeble Padres, and it should be all systems go for Marquez this evening. He’s a great option on all sites and in all game formats.
A Fine GPP Pitching Option
Porcello doesn’t get a lot of love generally from the DFS community, and he can be a frustrating roster at times. However, he still owns a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-threes, his strikeouts are solidly above league average, and he rarely walks anyone. The matchup is a good one against a free-swinging White Sox team, which plays right into Porcello’s skill set. We don’t have a lot of great pitching options today, and Porcello is one of my favorites on a point per dollar basis.
Take Advantage On FanDuel
Lucas Giolito has been pitching better recently, but I still really like the Red Sox in this matchup tonight. He has a .359 wOBA with a .197 ISO and a 13.2% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. With the low strikeout rate against lefties, it’s a prime spot to take the value that Moreland presents on FanDuel. He’s $3,000 on FanDuel tonight and should hit third or fourth for the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate. He has a .228 ISO with a .507 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I like looking at CXwOBA when we have a pitcher with a smaller strikeout rate because it creates a higher opportunity for contact.
High Contact Opportunity
It’s been a rough season for Kyle Seager, and for anyone that looks at his .268 wOBA against righties, they’re not likely to play him tonight. He has a .189 ISO with a .393 CXwOBA and he’s been very unlucky with a .199 BABIP this season. Montas has a .372 wOBA with a .221 ISO and a 45.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. With the low strikeout rate for Montas, there is really good opportunity for contact in this matchup. It’s not the best ballpark for power, but I’m willing to roll the dice at this price tag.
Home Run Upside Here
John Gant has had a massive issue with left-handed power hitters this season. In 190 PA, he has allowed a 56% hard-hit rate with only a 9.6% soft contact rate to lefties. Dickerson has a .193 ISO with a .346 wOBA against righties this season, but he has a .401 wOBA with a .188 ISO against sinkers since the start of 2016. Dickerson is on the cheaper end tonight, and he provides some really solid upside in this matchup. He’s hit eight of his 11 home runs on the road this season.
One Of The Few Options
I don’t see this ending well, but I think Joe Musgrove is the best cheaper option on this slate. Matt Carpenter left the game early on Wednesday, and if he sits, I like this a lot more. The projected starting lineup has five right-handed hitters plus the pitcher spot. Musgrove has a .264 wOBA with a .094 ISO and a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He does give up a lot of hard contact to righties, and that’s one of the things that worries me about this spot. O’Neil, Bader, and DeJong add a lot of strikeout upside to this lineup, but they do have four guys with ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching this season. It’s not safe by any means, but it’s one of the few cheaper options we have tonight.
Pitching Really Well Recently
We don’t have a ton of options to save some salary on this slate, but I think Marquez presents great value at his price tag tonight. He’s posted over 20 fantasy points in nine out of his last ten starts and faces a weak Padres offense tonight. The projected starters have a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and Jankowski is the only starter with a strikeout rate under 23%. When he’s struggled this season, it’s been against left-handed hitters, and this Padres team doesn’t have a lot of left-handed power bats. He has a .273 wOBA with a .159 ISO and a 32.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. I like his chances to limit the damage against the lefties and have that upside against the righties.
Start of Wednesday's MIL-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Freddy Peralta not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, hitters from this contest, at the very least, remain firmly in play for all formats given the minimal chance of a late postponement.
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter
Better pitcher, likely similar result against a powerhouse lineup
The Dodgers will face off with a better pitcher in Texas tonight, but should still have the advantage in this environment against Mike Minor (RHBs .316 wOBA, but .358 xwOBA with a 38.9 Hard% and 32.7 GB% this season). Emphasis on the first six batters in the order for the Dodgers. Aside from Brian Dozier’s (102 wRC+, .118 ISO) shocking lack of power against southpaws this year, they all are above a .175 ISO vs LHP this season. Justin Turner (193 wRC+, .247 ISO) is the top bat. Matt Kemp (132 wRC+, .250 ISO) may be the value play here. The Dodgers had the top run line last night, but drop a full run to third tonight (5.49).
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Mike Minor, Brian Dozier
Still a couple of spots worth watching in evening forecast
Kevin’s forecast has been updated for Wednesday night and it’s a bit more optimistic than his morning effort. The full report is now up on the Weather page. Premium subscribers get updates until lock on Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.
Inserting himself into MVP consideration with recent hot streak
There’s been some debate over the improvement Matt Harvey has made since being traded to the Reds and, in fact, LHBs have “just” a .336 wOBA against him this year. However, xwOBA brings that up to .354 with both 40% hard hit and ground ball rates. That’s dangerous against a powerful Milwaukee lineup in a dangerous park. Christian Yelich (140 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP this season) may be inserting himself into the MVP conversation (271 wRC+, 64.7 Hard% last seven days) and is a top overall bat on this board. Travis Shaw (131 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (115 wRC+, .239 ISO) are high upside plays for a team at 4.88 implied runs as well.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Matt Harvey Should be a group effort for lineup with depth despite missing key bats
Facing Reynaldo Lopez (17.1 K%, 5.18 SIERA, .369 xwOBA) at home, the Yankees are the top team on the board, the only offense to eclipse six implied runs (6.06). While he has a reverse split by wOBA (.347 to .318), xwOBA bumps up both sides to higher than .360. Batters from either side have a 34.2 Hard% with a ground ball rate below 40%. This is probably a lineup that works best as a stack with several strong bats, but Miguel Andujar (135 wRC+, .229 ISO) leading it in both wRC+ and ISO against RHP this season. Aaron Hicks (134 wRC+, .199 ISO), Gleyber Torres (119 wRC+, .202 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (115 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Brett Gardner (97 wRC+, .145 ISO) are other bats to include.
Other tagged players: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez