DFS Alerts
Discounted Price and an Elite Matchup
Kluber has had another solid season, although he hasn’t quite been as elite as he was in 2017. His strikeout rate is down nearly 7% and he has allowed more hard contact. With that said, he still owns a 3.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has a chance to improve his numbers tonight in a matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .316 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.
Good Slate to Pay Up at Pitching
Severino has been rock-solid all season, posting a 3.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. He has a great fastball, a high swinging strike rate, and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .306 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching. We have to like Severino’s chances of picking up the win tonight as a -340 favorite.
Ready to Get the Bat Rolling Again
Pardon my blunt analysis here, but we’re going to make this one simple. He’s never lived up to his prospect hype, and Homer Bailey just sucks. Period. His strikeout rate sits at a laughable 15% for the year, his ERA is over six, and he’s allowing some of the worst hard contact in baseball. Oh, and he has to face a team that has 21 wins in August and has won ten straight series. Don’t overthink this one; the Cardinals are fine targets tonight. Matt Carpenter seems recovered from his upset stomach the other night (he threw up next to the first base bag), and he has been on a tear for about three months. He’s fine despite a small mini-slump of late and checks in as a core play for me tonight. Carpenter is 19-for-42 (.452 average) in his career against Bailey, and he will have every opportunity to add to that.
A Great Price for the Power Upside
One of the best point per dollar offenses tonight just might be… the Royals? Yep, the Royals. They have a team total over five tonight, and I can’t remember the last time I have seen that for Kansas City, especially in their pitcher-friendly home park. Such is life when you get to face Andrew Cashner, who doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, doesn’t strike anyone out, and walks far too many batters. Other than that, he’s great! Cashner is largely splits-neutral, so I would just focus on the best bats for the Royals. There aren’t many of them, but this is a fine spot for Ryan O’Hearn. He has massive power with a .409 ISO and .475 wOBA against RHP so far in the big leagues. There are strikeout problems, but Cashner is not going to be the one to blow the ball by O’Hearn. He checks in as a core value for me today.
A Solid SP #2 Option
The consensus seems to be that Sanchez’ early exit from his last start was due to dehydration, but there is some reason for concern, as the hamstring that was bothering him was the same one he had issues with earlier in the season. For now, everything seems positive, and I’m willing to buy in at what still amounts to a very reasonable mid-range price tag. This is a fine matchup for Sanchez, and while it might limited his strikeout upside to some degree, the fact of the matter is that Sanchez has been a rock solid pitcher all season long. His ERA, SIERA, and xFIP are all under 4.00 for the year, and he does a great job of limiting hard contact. He’s a fine option, especially in cash games, and he’s the most logical SP #2 choice for me on this slate.
Ride the Wave
Believe it or not, Zack Wheeler might be your best pitching option on this slate. He has gone 7-0 with a 2.09 ERA since the beginning of July, and that’s nothing to scoff at. His last seven starts have all been fantastic, as he has allowed two or fewer runs in all of them. One of those starts came against this same Giants team, and he hurled seven brilliant innings with ten strikeouts in that outing. The park in San Francisco is spacious and great for pitchers, and I can’t really find a negative here. His batted ball profile is similarly impressive, as he generates about as much soft contact (24.4%) as he allows hard contact (26.2%). Ride the wave; Wheeler is a great play in all formats.
Jean Segura scratched Thursday; Ryon Healy replaces
Segura has been scratched from the Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ryon Healy, who will play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Denard Span all the way up to the two-hole, while Kyle Seager moves up one batting position to fifth and Robinson Cano slides down to third respectively, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Frankie Montas on the road this evening.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Ryon Healy
Value in bats against hard contact prone pitcher despite low run line
Seattle bats are not without value tonight despite just a 3.85 implied run line. Frankie Montas has just a 15.6 K% in 10 starts for Oakland and LHBs have pounded him for a .372 wOBA adn 49.5 Hard% with just a 33.3 GB%. Robinson Cano (118 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP this season) and Denard Span (120 wRC+, .171 ISO) are interesting here. Mitch Haniger (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (143 wRC+, .260 ISO) are more than good enough to overcome a slight park handicap against a pitcher whose been league average against RHBs (.308 wOBA).
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Denard Span, Nelson Cruz, Frankie Montas
Smashing southpaws this year (188 wRC+)
The Dodgers may be the most interesting west coast lineup, though they’re merely tied for third among the six teams with a 4.4 implied run line. That is because when Robbie Ray blows up, he’s capable of walking the park as well as allowing tons of hard contact. In fact, RHBs have a .363 wOBA and 43.8 Hard% against him this season. Realize that Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in baseball, but there are really no incredibly positive run environments on this slate. Justin Turner (188 wRC+, .241 ISO) is just smashing southpaws this year and has a lineup best 226 wRC+ over the last week. Manny Machado (146 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Matt Kemp (127 wRC+, .245 ISO) offer support with high upside as well.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, Robbie Ray Low chance of rain on Thursday's slate
The forecast has been updated for Thursday night and Kevin does not believe rain will be much of an issue, though there may be one or two spots to watch. The full report is available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get further updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
A value play and a potentially under the radar one
Johan Camargo (119 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP this season) moves up to the second spot in the order for the Braves against Mike Montgomery and is the value play in this Atlanta lineup for less than $4K. A modest 4.5 run line is good enough for fifth best on the board for the Braves. Montgomery doesn’t have much of a platoon split and keeps batters from either side of the plate on the ground over 50% of the time, but xwOBA has batters from either side of the plate above .330 against him and Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .246 ISO) has been tearing up same-handed pitching this year. He’s a reasonable $4.2K on DK tonight. The value play and the sneaky power play would make a nice mini-stack with Ronald Acuna (136 wRC+, .270 ISO) at the top of this lineup.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Mike Montgomery Struggling against RHBs this year and against everyone in August
Andrew Heaney has allowed 22 ERs in 29.2 August innings with just a 20.6 K% and 42.7 Hard%, thus, despite the most negative run environment on the board, the Astros have a 4.74 implied run line that’s third highest on the board. RHBs have a .234 wOBA (.341 xwOBA) with a 41.5 Hard% for the season. Alex Bregman (168 wRC+, .258 ISO) and George Springer (138 wRC+, .219 ISO) have been the top bats for the Astros against LHP this season. Jose Altuve (112 wRC+, .127 ISO) and Carlos Correa (137 wRC+, .123 ISO) have disappointed in the power department, but are still above average bats. Tyler White (197 wRC+, .349 ISO) is rewarded for his performance with a bump up to fifth in the order and at just $3.1K on FanDuel, offers more affordable exposure in a spot that should have some RBI opportunities tonight.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Tyler White, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Andrew Heaney They might be obvious candidates in an obvious spot, but still some of the top bats on the board
One of just two teams above five implied runs tonight and behind only the Yankees, the Red Sox (5.47) travel to Chicago to take on Lucas Giolito. Almost every road game is a park downgrade for this offense, but LH power certainly plays up a lot more in this park than in Boston. However, with Mitch Moreland out of the lineup, Andrew Benintendi (143 wRC+, .197 ISO) is the only above average lefty against RHP among the first eight bats in the order. Batters from that side have a .355 wOBA against Giolito this season, but RHBs have a .330 wOBA against him too. Unfortunately, the only standouts from that side are the obvious names, comprising the top half of the order: Mookie Betts (174 wRC+, .273 ISO), J.D. Martinez (187 wRC+, .345 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (138 wRC+, .262 ISO).
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Lucas Giolito Couple of playable LHBs against a top pitcher
Even if his ERA isn’t supported by his SIERA or his K% by his SwStr%, Mike Foltynewicz is certainly a much improved pitcher this year and a large part of that has been his ability to figure out LHBs (.283 wOBA this season). That said, Atlanta is a park that favors LH offense and power. Figure Anthony Rizzo (139 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP this season) and Daniel Murphy (138 wRC+, .188 ISO) are in somewhat neutral spots tonight in this matchup and they may have some value if players are afraid of this spot. Both have a wRC+ above 175 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Mike Foltynewicz A .404 xwOBA against RHBs this season
Only the two AL East powerhouses are above five implied runs tonight with the Yankees (5.75) holding a significant advantage on the Red Sox. It almost doesn’t seem fair that they’ll be facing Francisco Liriano (RHBs .380 wOBA, .404 xwOBA this season), so the Yankees have decided to only field half a lineup. Not really, but only the first four or five bats are even above an 85 wRC+ vs LHP this season. The top half of this lineup should rake, theoretically, though. Aaron Hicks (116 wRC+, .272 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (183 wRC+, .333 ISO), Miguel Andujar (121 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (139 wRC+, .283 ISO) have all punished LHP this season, though all are at different levels on the spectrum. All are at least $4K on either site, but probably still solid values. Cleanup man Luke Voit has fewer than 30 PAs against southpaws this season with wOBA and xwOBA within a single point of .290. That’s not very good, but it’s a small sample size and he offers top half of the lineup exposure to the top offense on the board at a price below $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit, Francisco Liriano