DFS Alerts
Inexpensive at a Weak Position
Brian Dozier is still simply too cheap for his offensive skill-set as he headlines a relatively weak second base position. Dozier is unlikely to leadoff with a righty on the mound but he’ll still find himself in a productive lineup spot for a Dodgers lineup that has an implied run total north of five runs. Despite a down year offensively, Dozier has still shown some pop (.203 ISO) against right handed pitching this season and he’ll look to build off Friday’s multi-extra base hit performance.
Cheap Skill
German Marquez has been so good that it’s led to relatively inexpensive Cardinals bats on DraftKings despite an implied run total north of five runs. Tyler O’Neil is especially cheap across the industry and should continue to find himself hitting in the middle of the Cards order after a multi-hit performance on Friday night. O’Neil is a skilled offensive prospect who projects for good power which should translate well into Coors.
The Robbie Ray Well
So why do I keep going to the Robbie Ray well when it has been mostly dry this year? His 29.7% strikeout rate (second best on the slate). Strikeout is king in daily fantasy. Strikeouts can give a pitcher a little wiggle room so that if he does end up allowing some earned runs he can still salvage an ok fantasy performance. That has basically been Ray’s story this season – allowing a lot of runs (4.91 ERA) but still putting up ok fantasy numbers. Advanced run prevention metrics (3.94 SIERA) would indicate that Ray is more likely to limit scoring than he has so far this season and if he’s able to combine that eventual run prevention with a strong strikeout rate we’ll be blessed with fantasy goodness.
He's Back
Oh baby, is Clayton back? The veteran lefty has posted back-to-back starts with a strikeout rate hovering around 30% and has been dominant with xFIP’s of 2.53 and 1.32 in those two starts. Kershaw and the Dodgers are absolutely massive favorites (approaching -400) in a home matchup against a weak Padres lineup. The Padres projected lineup owns a collective 25.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching which helps provide Kershaw with a strong floor/ceiling combo. Kershaw is easily the top overall pitcher on Saturday’s main slate.
We're Going Streaking
You’re going to want to get some Coors exposure in your lineups and Blackmon is my favorite way to get it. John Gant has been serviceable against righty hitters so far this season but has really struggled containing left handed hitters – lefties own a massive 58.7% hard-hit rate against the Cardinals righty. Blackmon has posted double-digit DK points the last four games and is in a great spot to keep that streak going on Saturday night.
The Best Bet at Coors
Charlie Blackmon checks in as one of my favorite bats on the slate. The Colorado lead-off man has plenty of things going for him tonight. We know he has great home splits against RHP. He took some good at bats last night and cracked a home run in the fifth inning against Miles Mikolas. He also draws a fine matchup here against John Gant, who has command problems and ugly splits against LHBs this year. Lefties have tagged Gant for a 59% (!!!) hard contact rate this season, and BABIP luck has been the only thing keeping his numbers respectable. Blackmon has a nice combination of floor and ceiling tonight.
Take the Parrot for a Ride
When you factor in matchups and likely ownership, I like the Indians as my top offense on the slate. Everyone likes to target Coors Field, but nobody really likes to target Kauffman Stadium. The matchup is great against a mediocre prospect in Heath Fillmyer, who has a 40% hard contact rate allowed, a 14% strikeout rate, a 12% walk rate, and a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 over his first 50 MLB innings. Yikes. That is not good when you are staring at a matchup against a dangerous Indians offense that has a ton of thump. Fillmyer has been reverse-splitsy so far with a 51% hard contact rate allowed to right-handed batters, making Edwin Encarnacion my favorite play from this team. Everyone knows about how dangerous Lindor, Brantley, and Ramirez are, and they are certainly fine plays in their own right, but give me Edwin and his parrot if I have to choose one hitter from this Cleveland team today. Edwin has a .261 ISO against RHP this year and is a great bet for a long ball tonight.
Ready to Finish the Season Strong
The Dodgers went off against Clayton Richard on Friday, and they certainly have the chance to do that again with a matchup against Brett Kennedy. Remember, as I mentioned in the pitching section, the Dodgers check in as massive -400 favorites in this game. Kennedy has shown some potential in the minor leagues, but he’s still pretty raw and has not figured it out at the major league level yet. The top five hitters in the order will all check in as viable options in any format, and needless to say you can also consider a GPP stack. Joc Pederson checks in as my favorite option on the team. He has broken out of his mini-slump over the course of this week, and his price tag remains viable (especially on FanDuel, where he is ridiculously cheap). His full season profile is still rock solid with a .380 wOBA and .300 ISO against RHP, and it should be all systems go for the leadoff man in a favorable matchup.
Better Than Most People Think
Anibal Sanchez aas been nothing but solid for the Braves this year with a .209 opposing average, 25% strikeouts, a low hard contact rate allowed, and a SIERA and xFIP well under 4.00. He also gets to face the Marlins, which never sucks. I know that it’s difficult to think of Sanchez as anything other than a gas can, but he’s been a rock solid middle of the rotation starter for the Braves all year long. There’s not a single spot in his profile that is weak, and he makes a ton of sense as a mid-range option on this slate. The price tag is just a bit high, but it’s warranted given his results this year combined with the matchup.
The Top Saturday Arm
The first thing I did this morning when it came to researching the slate was rushing to check the Vegas totals for tonight with an in-form Clayton Kershaw taking on a no-name pitcher for the Padres tonight……. drumroll……. the Dodgers have opened as -410 favorites in Vegas. That’s absurd for a baseball line. Absurd! However, by all accounts, Clayton Kershaw is officially healthy and back again. The Dodgers are falling back in the playoff race and are clearly in danger at this point, so there is no reason for Dave Roberts to hold back going forward in an attempt to nurture his pitchers. Kershaw has given up two or fewer runs in six straight starts, and the strikeouts have slowly started to tick upward over the last two. Fire him up with confidence in all formats tonight. He’s my top option, and it’s not even particularly close.
Favorite Stack of the Night
Coors Field should be a battle of high scoring offenses per usual tonight, but the Indians find themselves in just as appealing of a spot against soft tossing Heath Filmyer and the Royals league-worst bullpen. Filmyer allows a wOBA of .346 and .405 to LHH and RHH respectively, while only sporting a K-rate of 13.9% (the fourth lowest on the slate) and a BB-rate of 11.9% (the fifth highest on the slate). To top it off, Filmyer also allows 39.9% HC, and today gets to face an Indians offense that leads all of baseball in HC% against RHP at 40.2%. Filmyer will not be long for this game, and the good news for the Indians doesn’t stop there. The Royals bullpen has been brutal, having the lowest collective WAR in all of baseball at -1.9, while also sporting the highest ERA and lowest K/9. That is a lot of different ways to say it may be a long 9 innings for the Royals pitching staff tonight, as the Cleveland merry-go-round should provide a lot of fantasy goodness in this spot. While the usual suspects of Ramirez, Lindor and Encarnacion are the top targets, all bats are in play as the Indians shape up as one of the night’s top stacks.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion
The Best of a Trio of Aces
The evening slate features three aces taking the hill in Kershaw, Verlander and Kluber, and it’s difficult to argue with any of them as solid plays as they all find themselves in good match ups against weaker offenses. That said, Kershaw gets the nod as the best play of the three, facing an anemic Padres squad that was dominated by Rich Hill last night. Kershaw has finally rounded into form this season, racking up at least 6 IP and 7 K’s in four of his last five starts. The Padres also strike out at a 24% clip, the fourth highest on the slate and highest of the three “ace” opponents. It also isn’t every day you see a pitcher flirting with being a -400 Vegas favorite, but that is where Kershaw finds himself today as the Dodgers are projected to score early and often against Brett Kennedy. While all three aces make for strong GPP plays, Kershaw profiles as the safest option as he should go deep into this game and pick up a win in the process.
Much higher than normal implied run line for this park
Rarely do we see a west coast offense with the top run line on the slate, but that’s exactly where we find the Dodgers (tied at 5.3) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball because Clayton Richard hasn’t been good recently, has been missing no bats (8.3 K% last 30 days), and although RHBs have just a .333 wOBA against him, xwOBA brings that up to .370. Each of the first four batters in the lineup have at least a 120 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Justin Turner (176 wRC+, .216 ISO) is the must have here.
Other tagged players: Clayton Richard
Yasiel Puig scratched Friday; Cody Bellinger replaces
Puig has been scratched from the Los Angeles Dodgers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Cody Bellinger, who will play first base and slot directly into Puig’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Dodgers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Clayton Richard at home this evening.
As reported by: Ken Gurnick via Twitter Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger
Reverse split pitcher could work in favor of offense in a great hitting environment
Anotonio Senzatela has allowed RHBs a .313 wOBA that’s 15 points higher than LHBs this season, but with a 41.4 Hard%, his xwOBA is actually .351 against RHBs. This reverse platoon split works against him in this situation because the St Louis lineup is populated with RHBs who can handle same-handed pitching. Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top play no matter who’s pitching to him at Coors. Yadier Molina (108 wRC+, .184 ISO), Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .154 ISO), Tyler O’Neill (122 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Paul DeJong (105 wRC+, .197 ISO) have all been competent or better against RHP too. The Cardinals are essentially tied for the top spot on the board at 5.3 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Tyler O'Neill, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Antonio Senzatela