DFS Alerts

Erasmo Ramirez has allowed a 91.3 mph aEV and 13.6% Barrels/BBE in his four starts (19.2 IP) at the big league level this year. The Seattle bullpen has the third worst FIP in the majors (5.03 with just a 9.2 K-BB%) over the last month. The Diamondbacks have a strong top half of the lineup, each above a 125 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and should score some runs tonight.

Ryan Borucki has allowed 14 runs over his last 9.2 innings with just three strikeouts as his results finally start to conform with peripherals. RHBs have hit him well (.336 wOBA, .350 xwOBA), making at least one Phillie bat very interesting tonight. Wilson Ramos (147 wRC+, .241 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year and while he is $4.8K on DraftKings, the cleanup hitting backstop costs $2K less on FanDuel.

Daily Bullpen Alert: One pen has a 6+ FIP and sub-five K-BB% over the last 30 days

The Baltimore Orioles have the worst bullpen in the majors over the last month and it’s not even close (6.07 FIP, 4.8 K-BB%). The teams that are second worst by FIP (Nationals 5.18) and K-BB (Pirates 7.4%) over that span are not even close. The Orioles are facing the Yankees, but Alex Cobb has been pitching better and has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts. Last time out, he kept the bullpen on the sidelines for the entire game. The Nationals (5.18 FIP, 13.2 K-BB%) could see early action as Gio Gonzalez has been atrocious with a 2.4 K-BB% over his last 13 starts. The Mets are terrible against LHP, so he may be a bit better tonight. Surprisingly, the Mariners (5.03 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) are the only other pen above a five FIP over the last month. The pen, once thought a strength of this team, has become a disaster. They’re in Arizona behind Erasmo Ramirez (<5 IP per start). Hector Velasquez, Jason Vargas, Drew Hutchison and Jake Odorizzi are all averaging five innings or less. The Boston bullpen (3.98 FIP, 13.3 K-BB%) and that of Minnesota (3.94 FIP, 14.7 K-BB%) have been around average recently. The Mets (4.68 FIP, 10.4 K-BB%) have been better, but still well below average. The Rangers (4.70 FIP, 15.8 K-BB%) have missed more bats and get a major park shift in San Francisco.

Little Bit O' Pop, Little Bit O' Speed

I am a Michael A. Taylor stan. The Nationals outfielder isn’t overly talented but has shown decent power (.165 ISO) against left handed pitching and has excellent speed. Taylor is unlikely to draw a favorable spot in the order but should still have plenty of run producing/scoring opportunities hitting toward the bottom of a Nationals lineup that currently has an implied run total of five runs.

Speed Upside

With Tommy Pham day-to-day with a finger injury there is a chance that we see Kiermaier get a spot toward the top of the order against an average righty in Hector Velazquez. Don’t be fooled by Hector’s 2.74 ERA – the Boston righty is the owner of a much worse 4.59 SIERA and has been unable to generate swings and misses (7.7 SwStr%, 13.5 K%) through 62.2 innings pitched this season. Kiermaier is unlikely to provide you with power at the Trop but does have some speed upside if he’s able to put the ball in play.

Moose Tacos

I had an interesting conversation regarding Moustakas this morning. Specifically regarding his price on DraftKings ($3,800). Is Moose a contrarian play at that price tag on this slate? Moustakas has burned a lot of people over the last week with poor fantasy performances but that doesn’t take away the fact that he’s a talented lefty hitter squaring up against an average righty in a hitter friendly park. Matt Carpenter is sure to soak up the bulk of ownership at the third base position (he’s 1B/3B eligible on DK, 1B eligible on FD) but this is a great spot for Moose at a discounted price tag. If I don’t have the money to pay up at the position on DraftKings, Moose is the guy I’m turning to for salary relief.

Soft tossing lefties may rule this board

Soft tossing (or at least below average velocity) lefties could be a theme on this daily fantasy slate with only six pitchers above a league average strikeout rate. Dallas Keuchel gone at least seven innings in five of his last nine starts, has the third best ground ball rate on the board (53.8%) and the seventh best xwOBA (.309). Most importantly, the Angels are absent their two legitimate right-handed bats. The drawback is his lowered strikeout rate this year (17.5%) and also that of the Angels vs LHP (20.8%). Rich HIll has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (though with just a 9.1 SwStr%) and is actually closer to the bottom of the board than the top with a .343 xwOBA, but it’s been better over the last month (.303) and he’s in a great matchup (Padres 24 K% vs LHP) in a great park. C.C. Sabathia has struck out 19 of his last 47 batters. His .305 xwOBA is sixth best on the board and he has the lowest aEV (84.9 mph). He’s missed two weeks with a knee issue and the Orioles are a predominantly right-handed lineup (.313 wOBA, 13 HRs vs Sabathia this season). That’s not a particularly good right-handed lineup and batters from that side have been just league average against him, but the O’s have just a 21.9 K% vs LHP, despite a 75 wRC+. Andrew Heaney’s ERA is up over the last month and he’s in a tough spot against the Astros. However, it’s in a negative run environment and his estimators have remained on pace with his season rates below four, while his 22.8 K% is sixth best on the board. Jason Vargas has a career high 10.5 SwStr% and just an 85.5 mph aEV. He’s allowed just four runs over 11.1 innings in his last two starts and the Nationals are a deep and balanced, but under-performing offense for the entire season now. Gio Gonzalez has been terrible (2.4 K-BB% last 13 starts), but so are the Mets at home (80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB) and vs LHP (79 wRC+, 25.5 K%). A couple of RHPs might even be more interesting tonight. Joe Musgrove has gone at least seven innings in eight of his 14 starts. He has set down 13 of his last 53 batters on strikes and has a ground ball rate above 50% in four of his last five starts. His 86.6 mph aEV is sixth best on the board, which gives him the best xwOBA on the board at .291. The Brewers have a 16+ HR/FB at home and vs RHP, but also a 25+ K% at home and vs RHP. Zack Godley is facing a contact prone Seattle offense (20.2%), but his 11.9 SwStr% is highest on the board along with a 50.9 GB% and in an NL park, the Mariners are likely to be without one of their top bats, perhaps Nelson Cruz.

Bad Matchup, OK Context

So, about playing Dan Straily… The good: pitchers ump Nick Mahrley is calling balls and strikes. The bad: it’s Dan Straily. The matchup for Straily isn’t a great one but the context surrounding Straily gives the Marlins righty some room to return value on his cheap price tag across the industry. Not only does Straily get a good ump but he’ll also have home field advantage at pitcher friendly Marlins Park. There’s not a ton working in Straily’s favor but it’s more than everyone else at his price range or below.

Struggling Lefty

Low end pitching options are tough to come by on Friday’s slate so we’re stuck with a struggling veteran lefty who gets a plus matchup. Gonzalez has been brutal the last month or so – over the last 30 days (five starts) Gio is the owner of a 5.44 SIERA and measly 15.5% strikeout rate. Needless to say this play has more to do with matchup than Gio’s recent performance. The Mets projected lineup doesn’t have a ton of strikeouts in it (19.3%) but they do have an implied run total south of four runs. I don’t feel the least bit comfortable rostering Gio but am considering him in cash games as a way to get exposure to high priced hitters.

Three high priced and maybe overpriced pitchers

One pitcher exceeds the $10K price point on both sites and two more are at least $9.5K on both sites. All three are probably overpriced. Mike Foltynewicz is the most expensive pitcher on the board and maybe even the top pitcher considering the spot he is in (Miami 80 wRC+ at home, 84 wRC+ vs RHP) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He has allowed one run over 15 innings, striking out 16 of his last 54 batters, but league average 10.3 SwStr% calls into question his 28.2 K%. He’s a nice pitcher in a great spot, but rarely one players should be comfortable paying $10.5K or more for. He may still be the most usable of the high priced arms tonight. Mike Clevinger is in a great run prevention spot, but has a marginally above average strikeout rate (24%), which is actually the third highest rate on this board. The Royals have just a 20.2 K% vs RHP, but with a 9.5 HR/FB against them as well in a power suppressing park, though Kevin’s early forecast points out the better than standard hitting conditions in Kansas City tonight. He may still be able to continue suppressing his own HR rate (8.9 HR/FB) against a weak lineup. It’s still not really a $10K profile though. Dereck Rodriguez has gone seven innings in three straight starts and gets the Rangers with their 24.8 K% vs RHP minus a DH in one of the most power suppressing run environments in baseball. However, he has missed two weeks with a hamstring issue. His board leading 2.6% Barrels/BBE is a bit of a fluke considering the 88.5 mph aEV and 40.4 GB%. He does have the third best xwOBA on the board (.300) with just a 20.3 K%. DraftKings is asking $10.1 K for him tonight.

Site Specific Values

It will not be hard to find ways to spend up for bats tonight. Every position has something up top in an obvious strong situation. If you can find just a couple cheaper bats under $3k on FanDuel tonight, you’ll be able to get whatever you want up top. The Phillies infield is the first place to look for value, with Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Cesar Hernandez all at $3,000 or less against Ryan Borucki and the Blue Jays bullpen. Borucki has fallen apart recently with a ridiculous 3:9 K:BB ratio and 14 runs allowed in his last 10 innings. For the season, he’s looking at just 14% strikeouts and 10% walks against righties. The Phillies will open with 3-4 patient on base righties, followed by Asdrubal Cabrera who should see plenty of RBI opportunities with the contact ability to take advantage. If you can’t afford the Machado/Lindor/Coors price range at SS, save the salary with the Phillies tonight.

Living In The Mid Tier Infield

Third base on DK has Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado and Matt Carpenter, up top, but if unwilling to risk a cheap pitcher, I can’t quite get there. Anthony Rendon is not cheap (go to Mike Moustakas if you need more savings), but Rendon is fairly priced for his elite skills against lefties and a matchup with Jason Vargas. Vargas doesn’t have a single plus skill against righties, and Rendon comes in with a 45% hard hit rate, 30% line drives, 86% contact rate and a .253 ISO and .394 wOBA against lefties.

A Motivated Team in a Great Matchup

This is the time of year where we can start to factor motivation into play a little bit. The Phillies have everything to play for as they sit in the thick of the NL East and NL Wild Card races. The Blue Jays have nothing to play for. Ryan Borucki is a mediocre lefty with a 14% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, and a SIERA over 5.00 for the season. While the Phillies haven’t been great against LHP as a team this year, they do have the third highest walk rate against lefties, and they have the potential to get Borucki into trouble. Hoskins and Ramos deliver the power punch, and you can fill in your stacks with the likes of a Cabrera, Santana, or Hernandez.

My Favorite One-Off Play on the Slate

The Nationals do not appeal to me as a full stack tonight, but I love Rendon as a one-off play. He gets to face a mediocre LHP in Jason Vargas here, and Rendon has been very good left-handed pitching this season. Rendon currently owns splits that include a .382 wOBA, a .253 ISO, and a .305 batting average against southpaws for the year. Fire him up with confidence in all formats this evening.

A Team on Fire -- And Now They Get a Great Ballpark

The Cardinals have been rolling under new manager Mike Shildt, finding their way to a 17-4 record in the month of August. That has quickly vaulted them to the top of the wild card race, and they get to face a similarly hot Rockies team in Coors Field tonight. Given the way this Cardinals team is playing, you have to like them in Coors Field against a low strikeout RHP in Senzatela. He can sometimes get by with a fair number of ground balls, but the overall skill set is underwhelming. Carpenter and Molina are obvious choices, but don’t forget about the power bats of DeJong and O’Neill, who make great pieces in GPP stacks or as one-off plays.