DFS Alerts
A Power Hitter About to Turn It Around
Look, the easiest way to say this is that Jay Bruce has been absolute trash this season or he’s been injured, but this guy is too good for this to continue. On the year, Bruce owns a terrible .123 ISO and .302 wOBA, but owns a .420 CXwOBA with only a 15% soft contact rate (he’s due for some positive regression). He draws a matchup against Jefry Rodriguez who has been absolutely terrible against lefties this year (.438 wOBA and .308 ISO). It’s time for Bruce to start a hot streak and you don’t want to miss him at this low price tag.
Decisions, Decisions
Perhaps the hardest decision on Sunday’s slate is who to pitch as SP1. Michael Kopech would be the easy answer for me if he was priced about $1,500 cheaper but the delta in price between him and Gausman is what complicates things. Gausman has two performances north of 28 DraftKings points in his last three starts and seems to be transitioning well with Atlanta. Gausman gets another favorable matchup against an NL team on Sunday as he takes on Miami in pitcher friendly Marlins Park. The knock against taking pitchers against Miami has always been that the Marlins don’t strikeout (projected lineup with a 19% strikeout rate) but this is undeniably a great run prevention spot for Gausman. I’ll likely wait for lineups to come out before I make my decision between Gausman and Kopech but my current lean is to pay up for the young super prospect.
Cheap Leadoff Bomb
Looks like pricing has not caught up on McKinney here. in a very small sample size of just 29 AB’s in the majors, McKinney already has 3 bombs, a .375 ISO, and a .481 wOBA. This is obviously due for some regression, but he did have a .269 ISO in the majors this year, is going up against a pitcher that’s known to give up a lot of bombs, and is playing in a hitters ballpark. The only need to fade him is because of ownership, but on todays slate if you really need a cheap bat he’s the way to go.
Double Dong Alert
At first glance, this looks like a dream matchup for Palka, and when you keep looking, nothing changes. Zimmerman is an extreme fly ball pitcher that give up a whole lot of hard contact. Palka on the other hand is a guy that hits the ball so hard it is imperceptible to the human eye (this is either true or I need to get my eyes checked). Palka owns a .256 ISO on the season and is going against Zimmerman that owns a .209 ISO. The one problem in this matchup is that Palka strikes out a lot so this is an all or nothing spot here, but for the price, I’m willing to take either 2 home runs, or zero points.
Shiny New Toy
Everyone likes to play with a shiny new toy but only DraftKings has figured that out as they priced Kopech as SP2 on the slate at $9,800. FanDuel, on the other hand, didn’t get the memo as the superstar prospect is priced as SP14 at $6,400. That FanDuel tag makes Kopech a mortal lock in all formats on that site whereas there are some decisions to be made on DK. As crazy as it sounds only making his second career starts, I do feel more comfortable rostering Kopech over the likes of Shane Bieber and Kevin Gausman. But is Kopech worth the extra $1,000-$1,500? That’s the big questions and we’ll have to wait for some lineups to be released to make a final decision. As of now, I’m leaning on pairing Kopech with Pablo Lopez in cash games.
Underpriced Power
Due to all of the favorable offensive environments on Sunday it seems likely that Rhys Hoskins will be overlooked despite exploitable price tags across the industry ($3,400 FD; $4,500 DK). Hoskins is too good of a hitter for these price tags (career 137 wRC+) and will get a chance to flash his tremendous power (.273 ISO) in an excellent power matchup against fly baller Marco Estrada.
The Return of Scott Schebler
The return of Scott Schebler to the Reds lineup may complicate things a bit and move Billy Hamilton back down to the bottom of Cincinnati’s order but if the speedster does leadoff on Sunday he’s arguably the top value play of the slate ($2,500 FD; $3,500 DK). Hamilton is unlikely to directly benefit from the wind + warm temps expected at Wrigley in terms of raw power but indirectly should see more at bats, more run producing opportunities, and more run scoring opportunities. If Hamilton leads off and Schebler hits top five, I do prefer Schebler as a point-per-dollar play on DraftKings where only $200 separates the two. If Hamilton hits ninth, he’s out of cash game discussion and should only be used in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler Javy Beisbol
Javy Beisbol does it all. He hits HRs, he swipes bags. Baez has scored 21 or more DK points in three of his last four games and gets another tremendous matchup on Sunday to continue his hot streak. Homer Bailey is well past his prime and the 1.97 HRs he’s allowing per nine innings this season is unlikely to translate well with warm temps and winds blowing out. Wrigley is going to be the focal point of our lineups and Baez is the main attraction. Despite his recent explosion, Baez remains reasonably priced across the industry ($4,100 FD; $5,300 DK) and he’ll be a staple of all my lineups in all formats.
Favorite Stack of the day! And it isn't in Coors
I absolutely love the Indians today! Led by Ramirez and Lindor the tribe have the 2nd highest projected total on the slate yet should be lower owned than the Coors game. I think this whole lineup is stackable 1 through 9 against Lopez and the awful Royals bullpen but 1 through 5 especially stand out. With 92 degree weather and the wind blowing out in KC I honestly expect the Inidians to score 8 plus runs today and think the teens are a real possibility. The is the only team I am stacking! As a guys who usually stacks only 3 or 4, I am making an exception today and 5 man stacking these Indians as many ways as possible. I suggest you do the same! If you are looking for 1 offs, it’s Ramirez followed by Lindor, E5, Alonso then Brantley but like I said, you should be fully stacking here.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Roberto Perez, Francisco Lindor, Greg Allen
My favorite pitcher on the slate for GPP's
Anyone who follows me knows I am more of a Gausman guy than most and always have been. I believe in the talent and now that he’s out of the AL east I will be using him every start in a good portion of my lineups. Today he has a nice matchup against a Marlins team that certainly doesn’t scare us. We have seen the K rate go way up for Gausman and I expect that to continue with him now in the NL least. While the Marlins don’t strikeout a ton they are almost at 20% and with the safety due to lack of any real hitters, this is a great play in cash and GPP’s. I have Gausman just ahead of Bieber on todays slate. I say use him in all formats but especially like him in GPP’s as I think the upside is definitely there for 30 plus dk points.
GPP Pivot off Ray
Look, the numbers will tell you to play Ray, but he’s gonna be uber chalky and he is prone to blow up spots. Marquez on the other hand, has all the upside in the world and shouldn’t be heavily owned on a slate where he’s pitching in Coors. Marquez is one of those pitchers who knows how to pitch at home and has been crushing it since the all star break with a fantasic 27.8% K rate and a tiny 3.12 xFIP. I know it’s Coor’s, but their pitchers have been getting it done there for months and Marquez has been one of the best. In big field tournaments, Marquez is absolutely a better play than Ray.
Stop Reading and Just Throw this Guy in
Play Chen at home no matter what. (analysis over)…I have been told it’s my job to write more, so you can read the rest if you like, but you shouldn’t be playing this slate if you’re not locking in Chen. Overall his numbers on the year are not good, but he’s been absolutely crushing at home. He owns a 9% higher k rat, and an ERA 7 runs lower than on the road. He is just a completely different pitcher at home and I can only assume that it has to do with him having a garden of Popeye’s spinach at his house and it goes bad if he takes it on the road. Play 100% Chen today if you want any chance of making money.
Cheapest Viable guy on the Board
I can’t really tell you too many numbers to convince you to play Forsythe today, but his price on DK is just way too cheap to ignore (3.1k). He draws a matchup against Fiers today, who has been really good lately, but most of that is due to the ballpark he’s been playing in. He has a matchup in MIN which is actually one of the better spots for right handed power and he’s giving up hard contact at a 36.7% clip to righties on the year and is an extreme fly ball pitcher. This is your cheapest shot at a HR today and if it hits you’re in a great spot today.
Cheap Guy on a Heater
Marwin has been way too good this year to be priced like this esspecially when you consider his dual position eligibility. On the year he has a decent .167 ISO and .335 wOBA, but he’s absolutely been on fire lately. He’s had 3 bombs in the last 5 games and all of them were played in some of the worst ballparks for hitters in the majors. He draws a matchup against a not great pitcher in Barria who gives up a lot of hard contact (38%) and doesn’t K guys at a large rate. Just play Marwin in your lineups and move on.
2B Due for Positive Regression
Neil Walker is having a bit of a down season, but realistically he’s not hitting the ball that bad. On the year, he owns just a .126 ISO and .311 wOBA while only striking out at a 20% clip, but He owns a very high CXwOBA of .423 which means when he’s putting the ball in play, he’s just getting unlucky. He draws a matchup in a hitters ballpark against Cashner who been less than spectacular this season vs. lefties, owns a horrible .364 wOBA and .234 ISO. This is just a clear under priced spot for a guy in a good matchup batting in the middle of a powerful lineup. Neil walker is one of the best ways to save money today.