DFS Alerts
A Nice Mid-Range GPP Pivot
I expect Robbie Ray to get some attention as the preferred mid-range pitching target tonight, and while I like the upside of Ray enough to include him in my GPP pool, I want to highlight a similar upside target in Flaherty, who will almost undoubtedly be lower owned. Flaherty does draw a tough matchup against the Brewers, but the Cardinals have been giving Flaherty a longer leash of late, and they need innings out of him after Luke Weaver failed to clear the third inning last night. The rising star has racked up at least seven strikeouts in five straight starts and now has a 30% strikeout rate for the year to go along with an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP in the mid-threes. This kid is for real, and I’ll happily target him this evening.
Top Dog on the Mound
Any questions over whether or not something was wrong with Max Scherzer were answered in emphatic fashion last Sunday, as he fired seven brilliant shutout innings against a good Cubs team, only to see his win evaporate on a walk-off grand slam by David Bote in the bottom of the ninth inning. This is obviously a great matchup against a Marlins team that has now lost their most dangerous power bat in Justin Bour. Scherzer offers a ridiculously high floor and a great ceiling in this matchup, and the strikeout upside is definitely the highest on the board. Lock him in as your top pitching choice on the slate if you have the salary to make it work.
Too Cheap For The Upside
The DK/FDRFT salary on Robbie Ray is likely to make for very high ownership on a slate with a ton of other good options. It is never going to feel great being on a chalky Robbie Ray as he has shown the ability to implode in any matchup. But a guy with a 30.7% strikeout rate against the Padres at this salary is so tough to pass on. Nobody is a must play on this slate, certainly not a guy with an 11.9% walk rate who allows home runs, but his risk is so baked into this salary, he is the clear best option below the two aces.
Play The Best Player
You can always make a case to fade the most expensive pitcher, but you could also make the case that Scherzer should cost even more than he does in this matchup. He is right back to the dominant ace he’s been most of the season, with three double digit strikeout games in his last four outings. On top of his elite all around skills, he faces a Miami team whose active roster ranks dead last in the league in ISO against righties and 27th in wOBA and wRC+. Don’t overthink it.
A potential trouble spot in Thursday night's forecast
The Thursday night forecast is tracking a couple of potential trouble spots, one spot in particular which could be troublesome. Players can read the updated forecast on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can catch important updates on Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.
Lowest K% and highest aEV on the board in the worst park
Through four starts, Ariel Jurado has struck out just 9.2% of batters with a 4.7 SwStr%. He has a 93.8 mph aEV and batters from either side of the plate are sitting on an xwOBA around .400 against him. Even without Mike Trout, the Angels have one of the highest run lines on the board (5.38) in Texas tonight. Consider Kole Calhoun (108 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Justin Upton (137 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (173 wRC+, .318 ISO) three of the top bats on the board tonight, along with David Fletcher (99 wRC+, .089 ISO) a nice value in the two spot. Jurado has the lowest K% an highest aEV on the board, a terrible combination in any park, but especially Texas.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ariel Jurado, Kole Calhoun, David Fletcher A 14.9 K% at AAA and his first major league start
Twenty-six year old Glenn Sparkman makes his first major league start. He’s pitched eight times out of the bullpen for the Royals since the start of July with an 18.9 K% and 89.7 mph aEV. In 10 AAA starts this season, he had a 14.9 K%. He’d only previously thrown eight innings at AAA last year. The Blue Jays are one of four teams above five implied runs (5.06) and should have some success here. Randal Grichuk (105 wRC+, .266 ISO), Justin Smoak (132 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (119 wRC+, .250 ISO) are the above average bats against RHP over the last calendar year in this lineup. Kendrys Morales (97 wRC+, .182 ISO) is a lower priced option in the cleanup spot.
Other tagged players: Glenn Sparkman, Randal Grichuk, Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez A 142 wRC+, .303 ISO and .420 xwOBA vs LHP last calendar year
The Twins don’t have a lot of competent bats against LHP over the last calendar year. In fact, Logan Forsythe bats second with just a 62 wRC+ and .092 ISO against them over that span. Yet, due to the lineup spot, his low price, and Francisco Liriano’s .367 wOBA (.397 xwOBA) against RHBs since last season, he’s a player with some value tonight. In fact, seven of nine batters are right-handed for the Twins (5.36 run line) tonight. Among the first five of those, only Tyler Austin (142 wRC+, .303 ISO) is above a 75 wRC+ or .140 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Many of these are small sample, including Miguel Sano’s 35 wRC+ and .078 ISO (.199 xwOBA) in 59 PAs against southpaws over the last 365 days, but these are some ugly numbers and all are supported by poor Statcast numbers as well. Next to Austin (.420), Johnny Field (93 wRC+, .197 ISO) has the next highest xwOBA (.319) in the lineup against LHP over this span and he’s batting eighth. The Twins may very well run it up on the Tigers tonight, but no batter besides Austin, who strikes out a ton by the way, appears to really stand out here.
Other tagged players: Johnny Field, Francisco Liriano, Logan Forsythe Reasonably priced on FD against a pitcher who struggles against LHBs
Julio Teheran struggles with LHBs (.337 wOBA, .365 xwOBA, 38 Hard%, 37.7 GB% since last season). The Rockies are terrible on the road and have just two decent LHBs in the lineup. Charlie Blackmon is not one of them, but David Dahl (130 wRC+, .241 ISO) has hit RHP nearly as well has him over the last calendar year and is just as expensive on DraftKings. Both he and Carlos Gonzalez (140 wRC+, .251 ISO) are priced up for Coors and have a sub-70 wRC+ on the road since last season. Both are within $200 of $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Julio Teheran Top projected lineup in a great park with an affordable cleanup bat
The Angels will throw a very mediocre bullpen (4.28 FIP, 11.8 K-BB% last 30 days) at the Rangers today in the most positive run environment on the board. They’ll start with Taylor Cole, who hasn’t exceeded 50 pitches in any major league outing. Shin-Soo Choo (137 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the clear overall top bat here. The two through eight hitters for the Rangers all are between a 96 and 108 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, Joey Gallo (.262 ISO) and Elvis Andrus (.127 ISO) are the only two in the group outside of a .170 to .208 ISO vs RHP over that same span. On DraftKings, most Texas bats are expensive with the exception of the returning Nomar Mazara in the cleanup spot ($3.8K). He’s also one of the cheapest bats on FanDuel at $2.5K.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Taylor Cole Failure to miss bats along with hard contact (.421 xwOBA, 11.4% Barrels/BBE) is a bad combination
Only Jim Adduci (109 wRC+, .161 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (117 wRC+, .226 ISO) have been above average hitters against RHP over the last calendar year. The latter additionally has a 180 wRC+ and 64.7 Hard% over the last week. However, Ervin Santana has allowed 15 runs and six HRs over his 20.2 innings this year. He has not exceeded a 5 SwStr% since his first start (6.2%) and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE with a .421 xwOBA through four starts. Adduci is a very cheap bat in the two spot tonight. Jeimer Candelario (97 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Niko Goodrum (88 wRC+, .213 ISO) could be worth some exposure as well here and a Detroit stack might not be terrible.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Ervin Santana, Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario The Game To Play
With only one game in a hitters ballpark on this slate, and a total that dwarfs the rest of the slate by a wide margin, this is the first place to come for bats. There is a lot of unknown with the Angels rookie Taylor Cole, but even if he keeps up his short term strikeouts, he is not going pitch deep. The Rangers should have chances all night, with Roughned Odor looking to continue his torrid pace. He has power, he has speed, and he hits second for a loaded offense.
Four LHBs above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year in a humid setting tonight
Luke Weaver is a decent pitcher at a reasonable cost, but this Washington lineup has four LHBs above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, while batters from that side have a .330 wOBA against Weaver since the start of the 2017 season. St Louis is generally a negative run environment and power suppressing park, but Kevin’s forecast today calls for significant humidity which could boost offense and enhance power for Bryce Harper (131 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Juan Soto (151 wRC+, .230 ISO). Weaver is probably fine at his price on a board without much upside, but it’s not going to be easy and players should certainly consider some potent bats on the other side of this matchup as well.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Luke Weaver This cheap first base option can still do some damage (.232 ISO vs RHP last calendar year)
Sam Gaviglio hasn’t been terrible this year (22 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .341 xwOBA), but LHBs have a .358 wOBA against him this year, along with a .353 wOBA against him last year. The Kansas City lineup does not have a lot of competent left-handed hitters, but there might be a few values from that side of the plate. Alex Gordon (96 wRC+, .140 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is really cheap in the two spot. Lucas Duda (106 wRC+, .232 ISO) can still do some damage at a low price.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Sam Gaviglio RHBs have just a .186 wOBA and 59.6 GB% over his last five starts
Jon Gray has been a little bit worse against LHBs, but really doesn’t have a very wide platoon split. Since returning to the majors in five starts, he has really smothered RHBs (.186 wOBA, 59.6 GB%), while LHBs have a 42.1 GB% and Hard% against him over that span. Unexpectedly, Ronald Acuna (156 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP) returns to the lineup tonight. He has a 368 wRC+ and 64 Hard% over the last week. Freddie Freeman (138 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (109 wRC+, .204 ISO) have been the other proficient bats with power against RHP over the last calendar year. These are expensive batters in a lineup with just a 4.18 implied run line against a pitcher that players shouldn’t really want to attack, but if this means they’ll see lower ownership, Gray has been vulnerable in the past.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Jon Gray, Ozzie Albies