DFS Alerts
An ERA and FIP above seven over his last seven starts
Brace yourself for these numbers Over his last seven starts, Jon Lester has a 5.6 K-BB%, 8.65 ERA, 7.38 FIP and has allowed 11 HRs. While RHBs have eight of those HRs, batters from either side are above a .430 wOBA against him. Over the last month, he has a .423 xwOBA and that’s actually 48 points better than his actual number. The funny thing is his velocity has actually been up since earlier in the season. He’s been terrible and is facing a Pittsburgh lineup that’s actually been competent against LHP this year (22 K%, 8.5 BB%, 13 HR/FB). While the stadium does suppress RH power, it plays fairly to RH offense overall, while the Pittsburgh offense is predicated more towards discipline than power. Starling Marte can’t hit LHP (60 wRC+, .155 ISO last calendar year) and has a 0 wRC+ over the last week, but he’s also one of the top stolen base threats on the board against a pitcher who can’t hold runners and can’t keep hitters off base anymore. RHBs now have a .335 wOBA against Lester since the beginning of the 2017 season. Elias Diaz (154 wRC+, .222 ISO) and David Freese (109 wRC+, .111 ISO) both cost $2.6K or less on FanDuel in the middle of this lineup. Implied for just 4.15 runs, this is a lineup that could put a few on the board against a pitcher who seems to be a shell of his former self right now.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, David Freese, Jon Lester
Left-handed value against a pitcher with terrible platoon splits
Ivan Nova is not the worst pitcher on the board and has only allowed six of his 20 HRs this season at home. He does have just a 16.5 K% with a league average ground ball rate and 89.4 mph aEV this season. With an additional problem against LHBs, (.362 wOBA, .389 xwOBA), that portion of the Cubs’ lineup does look attractive tonight in a park that suppresses RH power, but is more neutral towards LH, despite their 4.35 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board tonight. Anthony Rizzo (139 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jason Heyward (106 wRC+, .138 ISO) both hit in the top half of the lineup. Ian Happ (123 wRC+, .225 ISO) bats fifth. Additionally, only Rizzo is above $4K on DK or $3K on FD among those LH bats. Javier Baez (118 wRC+, .251 ISO) is even more expensive on DraftKings, but David Bote (156 wRC+, .200 ISO) could be a bargain from the three hole. He’s one of just two batters in the lineup (Albert Almora is the other) above a 30 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, David Bote, Ivan Nova Daily Bullpen Alert: Two rookie starters, poor pens, make Texas even more attractive than usual
Three of six bullpens above a five FIP over the last 30 days are active and that’s not even counting the always poor Kansas City pen (4.66 FIP, 9.2 K-BB% last 30 days) backing first time starter Glenn Sparkman or the Angels (4.28 FIP, 11.8 K-BB%) who are throwing a bullpen game in Texas. Opposite them, the Rangers (5.44 FIP, 10 K-BB%) will start Ariel Jurado for the fifth time. He has exceeded five innings just once. The Blue Jays (5.24 FIP, 16.9 K-BB%) don’t have the peripherals to remain this bad for long and are in Kansas City, but Sam Gaviglio is the only pitcher on the board averaging fewer than five innings per start. The new entry here is the Washington bullpen (5.02 FIP, 11.5 K-BB%). Relief is something the Nationals haven’t seen much of recently, but Tanner Roark has gone at least seven innings in four straight starts and may not need much of it.
Just one pitcher well above a league average strikeout rate tonight
On a seven game slate on Thursday night, no pitcher reaches $10K on either site. Clay Buchholz is the most expensive pitcher on either site ($9.5K DK). Two pitchers exceed a 22% strikeout rate. One is Taylor Cole, who has a grand total of 18 major league innings, one start and has not exceeded 48 pitches in a major league outing. The other is Jon Gray (27.1%) with the .337 BABIP, who is facing the Braves (20.4 K% vs RHP). While he did allow four runs to the Dodgers last time out, in 35 innings since returning from the minors, he’s allowed just nine ERs with a .204 BABIP and 52.4 GB%, but just a 21.5 K%. However, the arsenal has included more sliders, fewer fastballs and a 14+ SwStr% in four straight games. Anywhere outside of Coors is a park upgrade and he’s gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. It’s hard not to consider him the top pitcher on this board. At .299, his xwOBA is also best on the board among those with more than one start. Another arm to consider tonight is Tanner Roark. Though it comes with just a 9.4 SwStr%, his 24.1 K% over the last month is best on the board (more than one start). His .240 xwOBA over this span is best on the board by 40 points. He’s gone at least seven innings in four straight starts with just an 18.3 Hard%. His 86.8 mph aEV for the season is second best on the board to the pitcher he is facing (Luke Weaver 86.7 mph aEV). Ironically, both Gray and Roark are facing offense’s who’s high powered leadoff men were plunked last night and both questionable tonight. The fact that St Louis will run out a predominantly right-handed lineup plays in Roark’s favor as well. Weaver (21 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .335 xwOBA) is probably a spot where some players will land for $7K in one of the most negative run environments on the board and he is a reasonable choice with at least six innings with five or more strikeouts and two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, but Washington at full health is a difficult lineup to navigate (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP) and he will throw in a stinker every once in a while. Buchholz (20.9 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) can be considered too in San Diego (82 wRC+, 18.0 K-BB% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Taylor Cole, Clay Buchholz, Tanner Roark, Luke Weaver Hot in Texas
After a few cool days in Texas earlier this week, someone turned the heat is back up to 95 degrees. The ball carries in Arlington in the heat and we have arguably the two most hittable pitchers in tonight’s slate squaring off. I’ll take the over and I’ll take as many game stacks as I can put together. Taylor Cole is only going to pitch an inning or two, which makes predicting matchups difficult, but that doesn’t mean that we should be avoiding this Rangers’ offense. Shin-Soo Choo owns a .415 xwOBA and a .235 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Tonight is the Night
There are so many reasons why I’ve like the Blue Jays in this series. They have a talented offense, they have plenty of home run upside, and they have been facing a team with arguably the worst pitching staff in baseball. The starters are hittable and as I’ve mentioned a number of times already this week, they have the worst bullpen of any team in the majors. Last night was frustrating. While Toronto did manage to score six runs, they had so many deep fly outs and line drive outs. I’m hoping tonight is the night they break through and score ten or more runs. Curtis Granderson should be batting leadoff and could see five at-bats in this one.
Elite Talent in a Pitcher-Friendly Ballpark
Gray is one of the most talented pitchers to take the mound tonight, although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his ERA (4.81). Luckily, we know that there are more predictive statistics out there (basically all of them). In his 22 starts, he has a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He keeps the ball on the ground and has good control. He’s a pitcher that always finds his way into my lineups when he’s playing on the road, similar to his teammate German Marquez. The Braves are far from an ideal matchup, but Gray has plenty of talent and see a massive ballpark boost pitching in Atlanta.
Best Matchup on the Board
Buchholz isn’t as talented as his 2.67 ERA might lead you to believe, but he’s still had a solid season for the Diamondbacks. He owns a 4.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 6%. He hit the matchup lottery tonight, as he squares off against the Padres, whose projected lineup has a .279 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 34% against right-handed pitching. You can make a case that Buchholz is the top pitching option of the slate, even though he is only $8,500 on FanDuel and $9,500 on DraftKings.
Back From The DL With Lower Ownership?
Nomar Mazara is expected to be activated from the DL today and is a nice salary relief option across all sites. We’re looking at a bullpen game for the Angels, and this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. Mazara hurt his thumb, which always worries me about a hitter coming back, but at this price, I’m willing to take a shot on him. He has a .164 ISO with a .419 CXwOBA against righties this season, and his average exit velocity is 91.1. With a lot of RBI potential, Mazara is a standout value play for me.
Let's Test This Again
The Twins are one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, and we’re really going to put that to the test tonight against Liriano. With that said, Tyler Austin stands out to me tonight, and I think he’s a top option on this slate at this price tag. In 65 PAs this season, he has a .298 ISO with a .370 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Liriano has a .367 wOBA with a .184 ISO and a 17.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. I think the power bats against Liriano are interesting, and I like the upside for Tyler Austin in particular.
The Lone Star Spot For Offense
The only game of the night being played in a good hitting enviroment is with the Angels and Rangers in Texas. The Rangers Ariel Jurado looks to be one of the lowest strikeout pitchers we will even see. After just a 13.9% K rate at Double-A, he has opened his major league career with a 9.2% K rate in his first four starts. Kole Calhoun should be leading off for a team with all kinds of upside. He is showing nice power upside in the second half and has a solid 41.5% hard hit rate against righties this season.
Attackable Splits
Julio Teheran continues to have egregious numbers against left-handed batters, with an 18.5% K rate and silly high 18.1% walk rate. When he’s not walking the lefties, he’s allowing 42% fly balls and 43% hard hits. This gives Charlie Blackmon immense on base and run scoring upside from the top of the Rockies lineup. If he gets a pitch to hit, he has the power to hit it out with his .226 ISO against righties and he is very reasonably priced on sites, notably on FanDuel.
Attacking The Offense, Not The Pitcher
We don’t have a lot of options on this slate tonight for pitching, so when paying down, I’m just going to attack the weakest offense on the slate. The projected starters for the Royals have a .175 ISO with a .318 wOBA and a 22.4% strikeout rate. Perez and Merrifield have both struggled with righties this season, and while Duda has a lot of power, he also strikes out at a 26.5% clip. O’Hearn has hit righties well since being called up, so I’m a little more worried about him than the rest of the young guys in this lineup. Sam Gaviglio has a 4.19 xFIP with a 22% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. His numbers are much better against righties, but it’s still a small sample size on both sides.
Loving This Team Tonight
Looking at the Minor League numbers for Sparkman, I know I’m going to take a massive stand on the Blue Jays tonight. Sparkman pitched 55 innings in AAA this season, and he owns a 14.9% strikeout rate with a 4.91 xFIP and a 1.40 WHIP. He also had a 1.64 HR/9 in that span. Even better, the Royals bullpen is ranked 30th in ERA and 30th in average allowed this season. Grichuk has a .256 ISO with a .444 CXwOBA against righties this season — his average air distance is 323.1 and he’s hitting a lot more fly balls than groundballs. I really like the upside at his FanDuel price tonight, but I will have exposure to him across the industry.
Thriving in the Heat, Part 2
Almost everyone in the Angels/Rangers game could get the nod as a viable play from me tonight. This game is clearly the best spot to target, with the Rangers throwing a low strikeout righty in Ariel Jurado and the Angels using a bullpen game. The problem with the Angels is that their lineup is depleted by injuries right now, but the good news is that a lot of the replacements come with fair price tags. The power upside comes from the likes of Ohtani and Upton, and you can get a bit of value with guys like Calhoun and Fletcher. Andrelton Simmons is a solid shortstop play, as well. Jurado allows plenty of contact, and that should help the Angels score some runs given the conditions. I’ll be firing up GPP stacks of both sides of this game.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, David Fletcher