DFS Alerts
Thriving in the Heat
Almost everyone in the Angels/Rangers game could get the nod as a viable play from me tonight. This game is clearly the best spot to target, with the Rangers throwing a low strikeout righty in Ariel Jurado and the Angels using a bullpen game. I feel a little safer with the Texas side, and for that reason I will opt for Shin-Soo Choo as my top overall bat on the slate. I think he owns the best combination of floor and upside, but the other Texas bats offer plenty of potential, too. You have power in guys like Odor and Gallo, and contact ability with guys like Andrus. There’s plenty of ways to stack this team up.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus
Punting With the SP #2 Choice?
There’s merit to completely punting your SP #2 choice on the multi-pitcher sites, as it’s woeful out there tonight. I almost feel dirty tagging Liriano as a potential play, but here we are. He has only given up more than three runs once in his last nine starts, and he draws a matchup against a Twins team that has been abysmal against left-handed pitching this year. There’s a path to success on a points per dollar basis here, as long as Liriano can keep the walks in check. That’s always a big “if” with him, but he provides access to reasonable upside at a cheap price point. That makes him palatable as an SP #2 choice on tonight’s slate.
The Top Arm on an Ugly Slate for Pitching
When a pitching slate is as thin as the one we have tonight, you have to take a shot on the guy with the most upside. That’s clearly Gray for me, and while the matchup isn’t great, it gets a bit softer if Ronald Acuna and Johan Camargo can’t play this evening. Charlie Culberson hit fifth for the Braves last night, so it’s not a completely scary matchup (depending on that lineup). Although he got demoted for a brief stretch earlier in the year, Gray still owns a 27% strikeout rate, 3.36 SIERA, and 3.09 xFIP on the year, with bad BABIP luck continuing to hurt his surface numbers. I’m very comfortable with him given the nature of this slate.
Super Sneaky Risk/Reward Stack
My first instinct when I looked at the pitching slate for today and saw Clay Buchholz as the most expensive pitcher on the slate on DraftKings was to curl into the fetal position. It’s quite the ugly night out there for arms, and people will probably roster Buchholz because of the matchup. I’m not ready to trust a guy who has a big fly ball lean after years of mediocrity, and while the matchup and park are great, I think the Padres offense provides some sneaky GPP leverage tonight. Buchholz has shown strong reverse splits this year, so the power righties like Myers and Hedges fly to the top of the list. You can build your stack with other bats from the top of the order (Jankowski, Hosmer) as well. This certainly carries some risk, because it’s the Padres, but I like the low ownership angle combined with a likely chalky Buchholz on the mound.
Other tagged players: Austin Hedges, Travis Jankowski Load Up Some Lefties
The Pirates Ivan Nova has a scary low 11.4% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, with no ability to control batted balls that has led to a .230 ISO and .367 wOBA against. Anthony Rizzo is the prime play here with his mix of contact, patience, line drives and home run power. He should have both run scoring and RBI opportunities and is a strong option in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Gotta Play Somebody
Clay Buchholz is going to default his way to the top of my rankings on a slate that lacks any pitching to trust. I recommend spreading out tonight, with nothing being worthy of an all-in distinction. Buchholz 4.12 SIERA is the 3rd best mark on this slate, and his 6.1% walk rate is the 2nd lowest on the slate. He’s shown some occassional strikeout upside, though it’s just an average 20.9% overall. He gets the matchup boost going into San Diego to face a Padres team with a 26% K rate from the projected lineup. There is risk with everyone tonight, I’d rather take the risk with a guy facing a team that might beat themselves.
A Bad Pitching Slate
This is one of those nights where we just have to play somebody, and it’s not going to feel great. The best skills on this slate belong to Jon Gray with a 27.1% K rate and 3.36 SIERA that are the best marks tonight. He’s been great since his return from Triple-A, but he’s simply been as lucky recently as he was unlucky early on. This is not a great matchup against Atlanta, and I would prefer to use Gray in tournaments rather than cash games, but nobody has more raw talent on this slate.
Johan Camargo scratched Wednesday; Charlie Culberson replaces
Camargo has been scratched from the Atlanta Braves original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Charlie Culberson, who will play third base and slot directly into Camargo’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Braves lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jose Urena at home this evening.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter Other tagged players: Charlie Culberson
The Hot Streak of All Hot Streaks
The Cardinals draw a mediocre matchup against Jeremy Hellickson. He has been fairly tough on right-handed hitters this season (holding them to a .308 xwOBA), which hurts the appeal of a full stack. Matt Carpenter is a viable one-off target once again. Not only has Hellickson struggled against lefties, but Carpenter boasts a .434 xwOBA and a .318 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Keep Streaming Pitchers in this Matchup
I’ve basically been all-in on the Braves’ pitchers so far in this series. It worked out well with Folty on Monday night, but backfired a little with Sanchez last night. I might as well continue the trend tonight with Gausman, who I’ve been hesitant to play recently. I’ve been waiting for a good matchup and a home start and he gets both of those tonight. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .274 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. If he can pitch around J.T. Realmuto (who has been a real stickler in this series), Gausman should be able to exceed salary-based expectations.
Paying up at Pitcher
Cole has cooled off after his historic start, but he’s still an above-average pitcher. Since the All-Star break, he has a 2.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. While not quite as good as his first half numbers, they are still the best of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. He draws a decent matchup against the Rockies, who have struggled a bit on the road this season. While the Rockies do have some firepower in their lineup, they strikeout at a high rate and Cole gets to face them at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Extreme Value in the Outfield
The Dodgers forgot to show up last night, but have a chance to redeem themselves tonight against Derek Holland. On the season, he has allowed a .362 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Justin Turner, Manny Machado, and Matt Kemp all bat from the right side and all boast a .400+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.
Better Lineup Spot Than Expected
I like the Reds tonight, and I think the lefties in particular are in a great spot against Bieber. Preston Tucker is hitting 5th for them tonight, and while his numbers have been all over the place this season, he does have a 91.4 mph average exit velocity and a 41.4% hard-hit rate against righties. Meanwhile, Bieber has a .379 wOBA with a .227 ISO and a 45.3% hard-hit rate against lefties. There is some strikeout upside here, but there is a lot of hard contact upside as well.
All About Big Bats You Can Fit With Him
There’s a good chance I’m paying up for Wheeler/Gausman combo on DraftKings tonight, but if I don’t do that on every team, I will just pay all the way down to Erlin, who has been solid in both a starting role and a bullpen role this season. Erlin has a 3.40 xFIP with a 21.3% strikeout rate while posting a 3% walk rate. I’m always concerned with pitch count, but I’m playing him more for the bats you can fit in alongside him. Without Trout and Ohtani not likely to play the field, he faces an Angels lineup that has struggled with left-handed pitching this season. The projected starters have a .170 ISO with a .304 wOBA against lefties in 2018.
Big Gap On FanDuel
I always tend to pay up for pitching on FanDuel, but the discount we get today from Cole/Wheeler to Gausman is significant. I love Wheeler today, but on FanDuel, I’m looking at Kevin Gausman as my top arm. The best thing about that is I get to write him up as a salary play because of how cheap he is. The projected starting lineup for the Marlins has a .108 ISO with a .285 wOBA and a 53.1% groundball rate against right-handed pitching this season. It’s been a tough season for Gausman, but in a better ballpark with a better team, I like his chances to excel. With his groundball tendencies and how much the Marlins hit the ball on the ground, I’m looking for seven clean innings out of Gausman for a quality start and a win.