DFS Alerts
Let's Try This Again
For the second straight day, Matt Kemp is underpriced against left-handed pitching. He has a .271 ISO with a .531 CXwOBA and a 47.9% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Holland has a .348 wOBA with a .221 ISO and a 45.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. Considering this price, it’s hard not to have Kemp as one of the top plays on the slate tonight.
Starling Marte scratched Wednesday; Elias Diaz Replaces
Marte has been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Elias Diaz, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which does bump Adam Frazier all the way up to the two-hole, while he also assumes the center field responsibilities from Marte, and Corey Dickerson consequentially takes over in left field defensively. However, the remainder of the Pirates lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jose Berrios on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Lance Lysowski via Twitter Other tagged players: Elias Diaz
Play What You Can Afford
Of course you want to play Francisco Lindor at shortstop tonight, but he’s going to be a very tough spend if getting Gerrit Cole in your lineups. Along with Justin Turner, Manny Machado is the other Dodgers righty with the ideal skill set to attack Derek Holland. Even if the Dodgers have another down night overall, the top of the lineup should be able to get things down with Machado joining Turner with the elite plate skills, having more walks than strikeouts against left-handed pitching. Holland is either striking out righties or allowing way too much hard contact, and Machado has the contact taken care of with just 8.2% strikeouts.
Elite Skills
The Dodgers were an overall disappointment last night, but don’t blame Justin Turner, picking up three more hits, all doubles which was his sixth multi-hit game in eight days. His plate skills against lefties are out of sight fantastic again this season, with more walks than strikeouts for the second straight season to go with a huge 51% hard hit rate. Derek Holland has shown some strikeout ability to righties, but that is offset by Turner’s contact, and the hard hits continue to be an issue for Holland and an asset for Turner.
Get In Play Here
The Indians are a top offense on the slate for the third straight night, and there’s no reason to stay away now. They face a pitcher in Robert Stephenson who has shown awful control, along with high fly balls and hard hits in the time he’s spent in the major leagues over the past couple seasons. As in the past couple days, of course play Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor if you can make it work, but Alonso is the way to access to this high upside offense at a reasonable salary, and he benefits from the awesomeness of the batters ahead of him in the lineup by giving him more RBI opportunities.
Just Play The Best
As much as I love what Zack Wheeler has been doing, this is a one-ace slate with Gerrit Cole way out in front. I would be OK with not going all-in here in tournaments, but at least in cash games, especially on FD with his low salary, it is overthinking it to play anyone besides Cole. He had a short stretch where his control got a little lost, but that appears to be back in line with just 4.9% walks over the past month, and easily the highest strikeout rate on this slate, both over the full season, as well as in the recent past. He has 8+ strikeouts in 17 of 24 starts this season, giving him a high floor and a high ceiling at a fair price.
An Offense On Fire
The Braves are absolutely rolling right now, and this unit is certainly a viable stack against a weak Marlins team. While Jose Urena is not a bad pitcher by any means, he has always struggled more against left-handed bats, and the Braves offer plenty of them. Albies, Freeman, and Markakis are a fine high upside stack, and you could even throw in the red hot bat of Ronald Acuna, who now has eight homers in his last eight games and seems to lead off every game with a home run. Don’t sleep on this team.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
A Sneaky Way to Stack the Chalk
The Indians are obviously going to get some traction tonight against a bad pitcher in Stephenson, but I think an interesting way to stack them tonight could be to stack the middle and bottom part of the order. This allows you to eschew the high price tags and high ownership on Lindor and Ramirez, and you can still get some upside with the likes of Alonso and the others. This will also allow you to spend a little more freely on your pitching choices. Give the 4-5-6 stack a look here as a contrarian GPP build tonight.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Melky Cabrera A Fine Spot for a Breakout Game
The Dodgers have gone into a summer malaise, and they have been a very frustrating team to peg all year long. This offense simply has too much talent to slump for extended periods, and tonight’s game represents an intriguing spot for them to get back on track. Turner and Machado both have wOBA marks above .390 against LHP this year, while Brian Dozier has a better track record against lefties, and Enrique Hernandez still hits in the middle of the order and carries a reasonable price tag. They draw a matchup against Derek Holland, who has been great against lefties but still struggles against righties, making the Dodgers’ RHBs a fine GPP stack to target tonight.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Enrique Hernandez Top Pitcher on the Board
We don’t have very many high-end pitchers to choose from tonight, so Gerrit Cole gets the top nod almost by default. He has leveled off a bit after a hot start to the season, but he has maintained consistency throughout the year with a massive 34% strikeout rate to go along with a 2.96 SIERA. His fly ball ways sometimes cause bad luck with the long ball, but the Rockies don’t carry the same thump in their lineup away from Coors Field. If you have the salary to spend on the high end today, Cole is the clear-cut SP #1 option.
Massive Risk/Reward Potential
The risk is obvious with Velasquez. He tends to have some very poor starts mixed in with some very good ones, and a matchup against the Red Sox is certainly far from ideal. However, that will almost guarantee low ownership here, the price tag isn’t all that bad, and the Red Sox do lose their designated hitter with a matchup in a National League park. When you combine those factors with the fact that Velasquez does have a 27% strikeout rate and sub-4.00 SIERA and xFIP on the year, the GPP upside is there. Don’t bother with him in cash games, but I like the GPP appeal, especially on multi-pitcher sites.
Hunter Dozier replaced Lucas Duda in the Royals lineup following rain delay
Duda is a late scratch from the Kansas City Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Hunter Dozier, who will play first base and slot directly into Duda’s vacated sixth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Royals lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Ryan Borucki at home this evening.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan via Twitter Other tagged players: Hunter Dozier Rain potential in several spots tonight
Tonight’s updated forecast features several spots where rain could be a concern. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will want to join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for more.
RHP with platoon issues (54.5 Hard%) faces potent LHBs
John Gant has occasionally performed admirably in a spot starting role for the Cardinals and even has a 13+ SwStr% in four of his 10 starts, but he does have some platoon issues. While LHBs have a moderate .325 wOBA against him since last season, xwOBA spikes that up to a .362 mark with an astounding 54.5 Hard%. That could cause some trouble here because each of the first five LHBs in the order for Washington are above a 120 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (128 wRC+, .273 ISO), Juan Soto (150 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Matt Adams (144 wRC+, .295 ISO) are all well above a .200 ISO as well.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, John Gant A K-BB below 3% and a terrible bullpen
Heath Fillmyer has a 3.13 ERA more than two runs below his SIERA in a small sample due to a .250 BABIP and 9.1 HR/FB to go along with his 2.6 K-BB%. His platoon splits have some oddness to them too. He’s held batters from either side of hte plate on the ground 50% of the time, but RHBs have hit the ball twice as hard as LHBs (46.3 Hard% to 23 Hard%), giving him a reverse split thus far. He’s not going to sustain a .253 wOBA against LHBs and the Kansas City bullpen is terrible. Toronto bats are of interest here. Each of the top four. Curtis Granderson (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Devon Travis (80 wRC+, .122 ISO) out of affordability at the top of the lineup. Justin Smoak (128 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (120 wRC+, .253 ISO) due to proficiency against RHP.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Heath Fillmyer, Curtis Granderson, Devon Travis