DFS Alerts
Affordable quality bats in a great park
Patrick Corbin is top three in strikeout rate (31%), SIERA (2.89) and xwOBA (.289) tonight. The environment is such though that players can still play quality RHBs against him, especially on the cheap, especially at some difficult positions. Robinson Chirinos (167 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is one such bat and he’s batting fifth for just $3.7K on DK, $2.5K on FD. Jurickson Profar (126 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Elvis Andrus (126 wRC+, .198 ISO) are both $4K or less and SS eligible on DK. Corbin is good, but he’s facing a potent lineup in a terrible park.
Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus, Patrick Corbin
Cheap bat in the two spot against a pitcher with a reverse split
The Braves have an interesting lineup construction tonight. Trevor Richards has a 20.4 K-BB% over the last month, but does have some hard contact issues over that span (29.6 Hard-Soft%, 34.8 GB%). He also has a reverse split on the season with RHBs owning a .372 wOBA and 48.2 Hard% against him. Ronald Acuna (149 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP) remains in the leadoff spot. He has been on fire with a 257 wRC+ over the last week. Charlie Culberson (130 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) bats second though. He also has a 255 wRC+ over the last seven days and costs less than $4K on DK, $3K on FD. While Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .200 ISO) is a given with the Braves owning a 4.94 run line, the two RHBs ahead of him are the more interesting plays tonight.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Trevor Richards Pitcher hasn't exceeded a 6 K-BB% since 2015 in tonight's most positive run environment
Arizona has very graciously given us early access to the most potently projected offense on the slate. No other offense is within a half run of their board topping 5.74 implied run line in Texas against Yovani Gallardo (13.7 K%, 5.52 SIERA, .362 xwOBA). Gallardo is not an exceptionally hard contact prone pitcher (LHBs 30.7 Hard% since last season), but has terrible peripherals (K-BB has surpassed 6% since 2015). This is a pitcher type against whom stacks would seem most beneficial if we expect the bases to be crowded. The major difference in tonight’s lineup for the D’Backs vs Monday is the absence of A.J. Pollock with David Peralta (137 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) dropping to third and Jon Jay (96 wRC+, .102 ISO) leading off. Jay has some value out of the leadoff spot here and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Paul Goldschmidt (122 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (141 wRC+, .315 ISO) are other obvious bats here. Daniel Descalso (117 wRC+, .197 ISO) is the only other bat in the lineup above an 85 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and within three points of a .360 xwOBA against Gallardo since last season.
Other tagged players: Jon Jay, Paul Goldschmidt, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso, Yovani Gallardo This potent lineup against RHP could do more damage than linemakers expect
Take note that Rick Porcello has struggled against LHBs. They have a .338 wOBA (.355 xwOBA) against him since last season with a 41.5 Hard% and 33.8 GB%. Since allowing his first HR on April 29th, LHBs have a .332 wOBA and 10 HRs against him this season as well, despite Fenway park actually suppressing power for LHBs. Tonight’s park in Philadelphia has no such issues and the Phillies have wisely stacked the top of the top half of the lineup with five LHBs among the first six. Every batter in the lineup is above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year and leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (110 wRC+, .116 ISO) is the only batter among the first seven below a .188 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Nick Williams (119 wRC+, .220 ISO) is a very interesting bat in the second spot. This is a lineup that could do more damage than Vegas expects with just a 4.26 implied run line tonight.
Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez, Rick Porcello Twelve HRs in 66.1 innings at home and a wOBA/xwOBA near .360 vs LHBs
Only one offense exceeds the 5.16 implied run line for Cleveland and it must sound repetitive every day, but if you don’t have at least some exposure to Francisco Lindor (144 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (187 wRC+, .371 ISO) on most days, then you’re probably doing MLB daily fantasy wrong. Today is no exception, despite the high cost. Sal Romano has allowed LHBs a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .360 along with a 40.3 Hard% since last season. He’s allowed 12 HRs in 66.1 innings at home this season. Yonder Alonso (122 wRC+, .209 ISO) offers more affordable exposure.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Sal Romano, Yonder Alonso, Francisco Lindor Time for a Bounce Back
Verlander is my favorite pitcher of the slate and it’s not particularly close. Of the four most expensive arms tonight, he’s the only one that is pitching at home. We can throw his last start out the window, as it clearly isn’t indicative of how well he has pitched this season. In 25 starts, he owns a 2.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a walk rate of 5%. He has historically been dominant in this ballpark and he gets to face a Rockies’ offense that has inflated numbers thanks to half of their games being played in Coors Field.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Some bad bullpens accentuate already hitter friendly spots
Five bullpens remain above a five FIP over the last 30 days. The worst of them, Toronto (5.53), also has an above average 14.6 K-BB% and are facing the Royals tonight. The next four are interesting attack spots. The Mets (5.12 FIP, 6.3 K-BB% last 30 days) and Orioles (5.46 FIP, 7.3 K-BB%) are in Baltimore with Jason Vargas facing Andrew Cashner. Yovani Gallardo starts in Texas (5.29 FIP, 10.1 K-BB%) against the Diamondbacks and Sal Romano is backed the Cincinnati bullpen (5.14 FIP, 8.9 K-BB%) at home against the Tribe. Brian Kennedy starts his second game for the Padres and despite trading off a few arms, the Padres still have a league leading 2.67 FIP (by nearly half a run) over the last 30 days with a 24 K-BB%. This is still a bullpen to avoid. Jake Odorizzi, Trevor Richards and Jaime Barria are all averaging around five innings per start as well this season. The Marlins (4.47 FIP, 7.6 K-BB%) are the pen to attack from that group in Atlanta. The Angels (4.39 FIP, 11.0 K-BB%) have also been slightly below average over the last month.
A 30.6 K% since the break and less than $8.5K with the best park shift possible
He doesn’t have an extremely high strikeout rate (24.9%) and is facing an offense with a 19.9 K% vs RHP, but that offense is missing bats and he gets the most favorable park shift possible from Coors to Houston tonight. German Marquez costs less than $8.5K and has a 30.6 K% since the break. It would seem obvious, but this uptick coincides with more curves and sliders plus a decrease in fastballs. At his current price, Marquez may be the most interesting pitcher on the board. Other reasonably priced pitchers who may be of some interest tonight might be Anibal Sanchez, who has a 24.4 K% to go along with his board low 84.4 mph aEV and a matchup with the Marlins. Trevor Richards had a 21.9 K-BB% in six AAA starts before being called up and struggled with control immediately, but now has a 20.4 K-BB% over his last five starts, in which he’s allowed a total of five runs. It’s not all great news though because he’s also generated a 29.6 Hard-Soft% with a 34.8 GB% over that span and faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (20.5 K% vs RHP) with a park downgrade tonight. That’s a 20 K-BB% for $7.5K or less though.
Other tagged players: Anibal Sanchez, Trevor Richards Three pitchers above a 29K% tonight, one below $10K
In contrast to last night’s slate where we had several high priced pitchers, but only one above a 28 K%, tonight we have four above 29% and two of them with very reasonable price tags. Justin Verlander is the most expensive of the bunch and carries tonight’s DFS pitching Triple Crown: 33.3 K%, 2.78 SIERA, and .249 xwOBA. His last start was ugly. He threw a bunch of fastballs right down the pipe to the Mariners. They hit them out (three times) and then he got tossed for arguing a balk after the second inning. Tonight, he may have the top matchup on the board, hosting the Rockies (78 wRC+ vs RHP). Patrick Corbin and Corey Kluber are the other $10K plus pitchers on the board, but only Corbin is also among that group of high strikeout arms. He’s top three in strikeout rate (31%), SIERA (2.89) and xwOBA (.289) tonight, but he may be in the worst spot on the board in Texas. The Rangers have a 15.8 HR/FB at home, 14 HR/FB vs LHP and 19 HR/FB over the last week. Kluber has struck out just 24.7% of batters faced this year and 19% over the last month. However, he has now gone at least seven innings in three straight starts and five of his last six starts with exactly seven strikeouts in each of his last two. Cincinnati is an average offense by most metrics and although more power friendly it’s actually a park upgrade for Kluber in terms of overall run environment. James Paxton is above $10K only on DraftKings, where he’s actually above $11K. Before struggling in Houston last time out, he’d thrown 14 innings with 15 strikeouts, allowing three runs. His 40.3% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board, but he still has a .249 xwOBA over the last month and despite the five point strikeout rate drop over that span, his SwStr% hasn’t budged from a mark that’s allowed him to author a 31.4 K% on the season. The A’s are tough, but better against RHP despite being predominantly right-handed, while he’s actually better against RHBs. He’s only faced his division rivals once this season and it resulted in 16 strikeouts. It’s likely nobody will be on the last remaining pitcher above a 29 K%, Nick Pivetta (29.1%) against the Red Sox, but let’s see who sits with them losing the DH. Pivetta has a 37 K% and .247 xwOBA over the last month and there’s absolutely no support for his elevated BABIP this season (.339). He’s $8K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Patrick Corbin, Corey Kluber, James Paxton Bane of My Existence
Andrew Cashner is the bane of my existence. He’s a terrible pitcher (5.01 SIERA) that always seems to weasel his way out of complete implosion. Despite many unsuccessful attempts to stack against Cashner over the last couple of years, I’m still firing away. Cashner has been especially poor against lefty bats throughout the course of his career (.336 wOBA, 4.61 xFIP) so Conforto, Nimmo and McNeil are my main Mets targets. Cashner’s struggles in preventing in stolen bases make Rosario a nice way to finish off your stack.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier, Jeff McNeil
Cheap Leadoff Man with Upside
The Orioles have been downright awful at the plate this season, both against left and right-handed pitching. While we typically like to stream pitchers against them, I actually have quite a bit of interest in the Orioles as a stack in tournaments. They draw a tremendous matchup against Jason Vargas, who has allowed a .402 xwOBA to lefties and a .364 xwOBA to righties this season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher and this ballpark favors right-handed power. Jonathan Villar should bat leadoff tonight and he’s had excellent numbers against southpaws in his career.
Short Term Memory
One of the most important traits of a successful DFS player is having short term memory. We need to forget about players burning us and leave all biases aside. Sure the Diamondbacks burned us last night in an elite matchup against Bartolo Colon in Arlington but they get a similarly good matchup on Tuesday against Yovani Gallardo. As an owner of a 6.11 ERA (5.52 SIERA), Gallardo is long past his prime. He’s allowing an absolute ton of contact (5.5 SwStr%) and is walking a lot of batters (11.2 BB%). The Diamondbacks shouldn’t have any problem getting runners on base, it’s just a matter of if they can capitalize on their opportunities. Arizona has the highest implied run total on the slate (5.8) and their hitters make for tremendous plays in all formats.
Other tagged players: David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso, Ketel Marte MVP Candidate in an Elite Matchup
The Indians’ stack worked wonders last night. I’m still kicking myself for using their hitters as one-offs rather than as a full stack. I was worried about how expensive the stack was and ended up siding with the Diamondbacks and Braves, who both underperformed a bit in their respective matchups. We can go right back to the well with the Indians tonight, as they take on Sal Romano, who has allowed a .394 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The one-through-four stack is mightily appealing, as each batter boasts an xwOBA of at least .385 against right-handed pitching this season.
Big Favorite with Strikeout Upside
Happ is one of the top pitching options of this slate. He has nearly as much upside as the four arms priced above $10,000 on DraftKings, yet he’s cheaper and is actually a larger favorite than most pitchers that are taking the mound tonight. In his 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Rays, whose projected lineup has a .289 xwOBA with a .116 ISO and a 29% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I can’t find anything bad to say about Happ tonight, which puts him ahead of most pitchers available in this slate.
Hear Me Out
Of pitchers priced less than $7K on DraftKings, Lucas Gioltio has the second highest strikeout rate (22.1%) over the last 30 days. Giolito is bad, and has been bad, but is at least starting to supplement his terribleness with some strikeouts. Tuesday night Giolito gets a matchup against a Tigers team that owns the league’s worst wRC+ (76) versus RHP. Giolito also gets the benefit of a very pitcher friendly ump calling balls and strikes (Hunter Wendelstedt). Rostering Giolito isn’t for the feint of heart, but I actually do like him as a sub-5% owned, low-end GPP option on this slate.