DFS Alerts
Back On Top Tonight
The Indians are right back on the top of the list tonight against Sal Romano and his awful numbers against left-handed batters. With his 14.4% K, 10.5% BB and 42% HH, Romano is going to have a tough time with this Indians lineup. As usual, the prime plays here, and top plays overall on the slate are Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. But their salaries are excessive and tough to fit on this slate. Enter Yonder Alonso with his more reasonable salary and middle of the order lineup spot where he’ll be ready to bring Ramirez, Lindor and Brantley home. With a .213 ISO and .347 wOBA with solid contact, hard hit and fly ball ability, there is all kinds of upside here tonight.
Attack This Weak Offense
There is nothing safe about the value pitchers I like tonight, but I really like this matchup for Ryan Borucki. He is projected to face eight right-handed hitters tonight, and only two of these guys have an ISO over .200 against lefties. The projected starting lineup has a .123 ISO with a .294 wOBA and a 23.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Borucki isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but he’s done a great job limiting the power and getting groundballs. He has a .127 ISO with a 30.8% hard-hit rate against righties this season. With the lack of power on this team, I could see six to seven solid innings here for Borucki, and even with his limited strikeout upside, I like his value in this spot.
Dee Gordon (sore shoulder) scratched Monday; Andrew Romine replaces
Gordon has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a bothersome sore shoulder. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Romine, who will play second base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which does bump Guillermo Heredia up one batting position to eighth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Mariners lineup will stay intact as they face off against left-hander Sean Manaea on the road this evening.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Andrew Romine
Three HRs in 24 PAs against tonight's pitcher
Nelson Cruz has a 142 wRC+ and .301 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Sean Manaea does have a .318 wOBA against RHBs since last season, but ,357 xwOBA and 38.2 Hard% as well. His strikeout rate is down to 16.9% for the season and Cruz has homered against him three times in 24 career PAs. Despite an implied run line below four runs tonight, Cruz and Mitch Haniger (119 wRC+, .167 ISO) have some upside here. The latter has a 232 wRC+ over the last week as well.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea
The Salary Is Fair
As I’m building lineups, it’s just so easy to spend up to at least Kershaw if using the cheap Sean Reid-Foley, that I just don’t find it necessary to go too heavy on the mid-tier with guys like Andrew Heaney and Mike Clevinger. This is becoming a spread it out pitching slate in tournaments for me, getting shares of all of deGrom, Severino, Foltynewicz, Kershaw, Clevinger and Heaney. Despite the skills drop and the 1-K outing last week, this is still Clayton Kershaw with his usual elite control, again piling up quality starts. He may not be a guy that wins it for you, but he should be good.
Top half of the lineup is hot and hits LHP hard.
Marco Gonzales has dropped his wOBA against RHBs to .303 this season with a 17.9 K-BB%, but he has allowed 12 HRs against them this year. There are a few Oakland hitters that should be considered despite just a 4.17 implied run line if not using Gonzales. Marcus Semien (105 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is an affordable leadoff bat with 237 wRC+ and 68.4 Hard% over the last week. Matt Chapman (136 wRC+, .200 ISO) is similarly affordable with a 71.4 Hard% over the last week. Khris Davis (120 wRC+, .273 ISO) has a 240 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week. Each are above a 38 Hard% against LHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Marcus Semien, Marco Gonzales Matchup Stuff
On FanDuel, Mike Foltynewicz is sitting in the same pricing tier as Andrew Heaney. I like both guys, but this Marlins lineup just has less to be worried about than even the Padres. For the season, Folty’s 28% strikeout rate is the second highest on this slate and while they have come down a bit recently, he’s still at a solid 24.3% over the past month. His two issues are walks and home runs, and the two things this Marlins lineup doesn’t do are walk and hit for power. Tonight’s lineup for Miami has a silly low .105 ISO and .305 wOBA and they don’t have a single batter at even a league average walk rate, with a combined 5.7% BB rate. The strikeout ceiling is not huge, but he’s priced to where just moderate strikeouts with some easy innings would be enough.
Concern, but optimism in the evening forecast
There are still some concerns in the evening forecast, but also some optimism. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can catch later updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Contact prone offense facing a pitcher with poor peripherals
The Braves find themselves with their standard lineup and a 5.38 run line game two of their double-header, which essentially ties them for the top spot on the board tonight against Merandy Gonzalez, who has previously thrown several multiple inning outings out of the pen for the Marlins earlier in the season. He reached AA for the first time this season and has just a 4.6 K-BB% though 14 starts. A contact prone Atlanta lineup should be able to do some damage against him. Each of the first six batters in the lineup have a 99 wRC+ or better vs RHP over the last calendar year. The top three supply the power: Ronald Acuna (134 wRC+, .254 ISO), Ozzie Albies (108 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .195 ISO).
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Merandy Gonzalez Lefty mashing lineup against lefty who often gets mashed
Tommy Milone has had an interesting changeup this year, thrown about 40% of the time to RHBs through three starts with a 41.5% whiff rate. He also threw 39 fastballs to right-handed Braves last time out and three of them left the yard. Despite the success of that pitch, RHBs still have a .437 wOBA against Milone since last season and even though xwOBA drops that 90 points, .347 is still not an enviable number. The Cardinals have three RHBs who have hammered LHP in varying sample sizes over the last calendar year in Jose Martinez (164 wRC+, .230 ISO), Jedd Gyorko (185 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Harrison Bader (166 wRC+, .266 ISO). Competent or better bats against southpaws with more advantageous lineup positions include Matt Carpenter (130 wRC+, .267 ISO) from the left side, along with Yadier Molina (105 wRC+, .191 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (123 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Paul DeJong (90 wRC+, .184 ISO). The Cardinals, as a team, have a 16.7 HR/FB against LHP despite the power suppressing park and Tommy Milone is a fly ball pitcher. The Cardinals could go under-owned with three or four teams above their 4.56 implied run line.
Other tagged players: Harrison Bader, Tommy Milone, Jedd Gyorko, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna Underlying numbers suggest success for LHBs, though this lineup doesn't have many
Brad Keller has had decent results due to a 4.6 HR/FB. While he’s allowed just 4.8% Barrels/BBE with a 54.6 GB%, an 88.2 mph aEV suggests he won’t be able to sustain it. While Kansas City is a power suppressing park, it’s a positive run environment overall, but considering LHBs have a ground ball rate over four points below RHBs with an increase of 34 points from wOBA (.317) to xwOBA (.351) against Keller, this is the side players should look to attack he and a poor Kansas City bullpen with tonight. Unfortunately, at this point, that means just Curtis Granderson (109 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Smoak (129 wRC+, .248 ISO) as above average hitters from that side. The only other LHB in the lineup is Kendrys Morales (94 wRC+, .181 ISO), who’s sitting on a -6 wRC+ over the last week (19 PAs). The Blue Jays do have a 4.7 implied run line that’s third best on the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Brad Keller Only rain should be able to stop this offense
The lineup that all daily fantasy players are looking for has arrived. The Diamondbacks have a board topping 5.42 run line against Bartolo Colon in Texas and on paper, it would seem the only thing that can stop this Arizona offense would be weather. The bullpen behind Colon is no great shakes either (5.40 FIP and 9.8 K-BB% over the last 30 days). The strongest bats in this lineup are clearly the first four: David Peralta (135 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Paul Goldschmidt (123 wRC+, .223 ISO), A.J. Pollock (114 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (142 wRC+, .317 ISO). Only Daniel Descalso (116 wRC+, .196 ISO) is additionally above an 85 wRC+ and/or a .185 ISO vs RHP over the last 365 days. Colon has been spanked to the tune of a .360 wOBA or better by batters from either side of the plate since last season. Load up on Arizona bats tonight, who cost quite a bit less than elite Cleveland bats, the only other offense above five implied runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso, Bartolo Colon Low run line, but power against occasionally hard contact prone pitcher in a hitter's park
A 4.04 implied run line is actually quite low for the Rangers at home and while Zack Greinke is a quality pitcher, he allowed 20 HRs in 24 starts (88 mph aEV) and has struck out just 15 of his last 75 batters. With under 15 points of separation in his platoon splits by both wOBA and xwOBA since last season, players can consider batters from either side against him, but all of the power lies in the LHBs from Texas. At least some isolated exposure to Shin-Soo Choo (136 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHp last calendar year), Rougned Odor (108 wRC+, .209 ISO) and/or Joey Gallo (112 wRC+, .276 ISO) could be supported here. While Ronald Guzman (97 wRC+, .194 ISO) is not on their levels yet, he did homer three times at Yankee Stadium last week and has decent numbers, while still costing just $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman, Zack Greinke Find a way to pay up for elite infield bats in a great spot
Homer Bailey’s string of strong starts lasted just two before being lit up by the Mets last time out. The Indians lose the DH in an NL park, but Cincinnati is a more power friendly run environment and with LHBs owning a .359 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against Bailey since last season, the top half of this lineup looks as strong as ever tonight. Their one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight, behind only the visiting team in Texas with a 5.18 run line. Francisco Lindor (143 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (185 wRC+, .366 ISO) cost a fortune, but if not paying up for pitching, players should make a strong effort to include them in lineups along with Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .192 ISO). Yonder Alonso (122 wRC+, .206 ISO) moves up to the cleanup spot and offers more affordable exposure.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Homer Bailey Cheap bats atop a lineup against hardest contact prone pitcher on the slate
The White Sox have enough strikeouts in their lineup and overall poor plate discipline to make Artie Lewicki useful potentially useful in a daily fantasy setting if pairing him with a higher priced pitcher tonight, but there’s no denying he’s allowed far too much hard contact. His .395 xwOBA, 91.2 mph aEV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE and 45.5% 95+ mph aEV are all worst on the board. Adding his 10 innings from last year to 34 this year, batters from either side of the plate are above a .400 xwOBA against him for his career. The White Sox do have a few competent bats against RHP, but more importantly, they have a couple of very cheap ones atop the order in Nick Delmonico (98 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Yolmer Sanchez (107 wRC+, .179 ISO). Jose Abreu (124 wRC+, .255 ISO), Daniel Palka (107 wRC+, .277 ISO) and Avisail Garcia (110 wRC+, .191 ISO) could be useful here as well. One note is that players should realize that Lewicki does not pitch deep into games and the Detroit bullpen has been quite capable themselves over the last month (3.68 FIP, 13.9 K-BB%). The White Sox still find themselves in unfamiliar territory, behind only four teams with a 4.57 run line.
Other tagged players: Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, Avisail Garcia, Artie Lewicki