DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alert: A couple of low end bullpens in spots that can be attacked
The Blue Jays have a league high 5.53 bullpen FIP over the last 30 days and are starting a pitcher making his major league debut. The two issues here are that the bullpen also has a 14.8 K-BB% over that span and they are facing the Royals. The Rangers take a 5.40 FIP and 9.8 K-BB% over the last 30 days into battle in Texas behind Bartolo Colon. The only issue here is the weather. The Reds back Homer Bailey at home against the Indians with a 5.07 FIP and 9.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days. The Mets’ bullpen has a 4.92 FIP and 6.8 K-BB% over the last month and travel accross town to Yankee Stadium tonight. Jacob deGrom is starting, but if weather looks like it might shorten his outing, this could be a sneaky attack spot. Artie Lewicki is the only other pitcher averaging fewer than 5.1 innings per start. He’s started just two games and the Detroit bullpen has been quite competent over the last 30 days (3.68 FIP, 13.9 K-BB%), while the White Sox aren’t really an offense players probably want to load up on anyway.
A few mid-range pitchers should have reasonable floors if not high ceilings tonight
If the top priced pitchers all come with some level of concern, is there enough on the middle of the board to bypass them completely? Perhaps not in terms of upside, but there are some useful pitchers. Miles Mikolas struck out just one of 25 Marlins and does not have what we normally look for in a strikeout rate for our daily fantasy pitching (16.9%). However, in more than half of his 23 starts, he’s recorded a seventh inning out and he’s allowed more than two runs just six times this year. He has the lowest aEV on the board (85.1 mph) in a great park with a reasonable price tag around $8K. He probably won’t win someone a GPP, but he probably won’t lose a cash game either. Marco Gonzales has a league average strikeout rate and has recorded a seventh inning out in seven of 23 starts. Oakland isn’t as negative a run environment as Seattle, but still no the negative side and despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, the A’s tend to lean more towards an average offense against southpaws. He’s struck out 11 of 42 A’s faced this year and costs around $8K as well. Andrew Heaney faces a hot Padres’ offense (131 wRC+, 20.9 HR/FB last seven days) that has some right-handed pop. Despite allowing at least three runs in seven of his last 10 starts, he’s also completed seven innings in six of those starts and is still missing bats at a league average rate over that span (21.1 K%). He costs a bit more than $8K on either site and the Padres have a 15.6 K-BB% vs LHP. On the lower end of the board, Sean Reid-Foley makes his major league debut. He’s not a highly regarded prospect, but has been above a 27% strikeout rate over 23 AA and AAA starts this season. The Royals have just a 20 K% vs RHP, but just an 80 wRC+ at home and 82 wRC+ vs RHP. Artie Lewicki has struck out 25 of 96 AAA batters over the last month and then five of 10 Angels. The White Sox have an 18.5 K-BB% on the road, 19.2 K-BB% vs RHP, and 30.4 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Marco Gonzales, Andrew Heaney, Sean Reid-Foley, Artie Lewicki High priced pitchers all dealing with some level of concern Monday night
Three pitchers reach $10K on both sites, two more are above that cost on one site with another one missing out by just $100. Now for the bad news: players may not even be able to use most of those pitchers. The two highest priced pitchers, plus another one in Texas may be off the board due to weather concerns. If not, Jacob deGrom is the top pitcher on the board in all the top categories: 30.7 K%, 15.1 SwStr%, 2.94 SIERA, .259 xwOBA, and 3.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s also in one of the toughest park adjusted spots on the board (125 wRC+, 18.6 HR/FB at home, 109 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP). The Yankees also have a team 120 wRC+, 17.2 K% and 20.2 HR/FB over the last week. Luis Severino looked better last time out, but that was against the White Sox and he still still allowed three runs with a 36.8 LD%, 31.6 GB% and 26.3 Hard-Soft% in that start. Clayton Kershaw struck out just one of 25 Oakland batters faced last time out, but still has the second lowest xwOBA on the board (.294) and costs exactly $10K in the most negative run environment on the board against a beatable Giants’ offense. While he may not be what he once was, he may still have some value at $10K. Madison Bumgarner has struck out more than five in just two of his last seven starts and faces a really tough Dodger lineup against LHP with recent additions. Zack Greinke has struck out just 15 of his last 75 and allows enough hard contact to get himself in trouble in Texas, while that game also has potential weather concerns. Mike Foltynewicz _) is in one of the top spots on the board (Marlins 16.7 K-BB% on the road, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 45 wRC+, 5.4 HR/FB last seven days), but has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts and completed six innings only once in his last four. While still an above average rate, his strikeouts are down and he’s allowed a hard hit rate above 40% in four of those six starts as well.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Mike Foltynewicz Great Matchup and a Great Ballpark
The Diamondbacks see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Texas and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. While it’s not going to be as hot as usual in Texas (low 80s), this is still a great spot to load up on the Diamondbacks. Bartolo Colon has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball and he has allowed a .365+ xwOBA and a 42%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. There are five batters in this lineup that have an ISO of at least .200 against right-handed pitching this season — David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Descalso.
Stacking Against a Pitcher with Poor Minor League Numbers
The Braves are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher that had awful numbers at the Double-A level earlier this season. Not only that, but with this being the second half of a double-header, we could see a tired Marlins’ bullpen (that isn’t very good to begin with). Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here and I see each of the first five batters in this lineup as elite plays at their respective positions — Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, and Adam Duvall.
Hard to Fail in this Spot
Foltynewicz is arguably the top point-per-dollar pitcher of the slate. In 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has great velocity and he’s finally figured out a way to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. He’s pitching at home in a ballpark that is tough on run production and he gets to face a very weak Marlins’ offense. They traded Justin Bour to the Phillies and with J.T. Realmuto catching the first game of this double-header, he’s unlikely to be in the lineup tonight. The projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .260 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
It's Mer-Man Father! Mer-Man!
Man, Merandy Gonzalez has been painting down in AA. Over his last three starts he’s allowed a total of three runs over 21 innings pitched. So why are we taking hitters against him? Well, 1) I still don’t think he’s any good and 2) The Braves could come in criminally under-owned with all of the ownership being concentrated on Cleveland and Arizona. It should also be noted that despite Merandy’s recent success in the Minors, he’s still posted a strikeout rate south of 16% in AA this season. If you’re allowing a lot of contact in AA, you’re going to allow even more contact in the Majors. Freddie Freeman is my absolute favorite GPP play of the slate. While he projects very similarly to Paul Goldschmidt he may see 10% of the ownership that Goldy does. I do like the idea of playing both Goldy and Freeman on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna
Favorite Pitcher of the Slate
Severino has cooled off in his last couple of starts, but still has an elite skill set. In 24 starts this season, he owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has good control and an ability to pitch well in any ballpark and in any matchup. The Mets’ lineup doesn’t look terrible at this point in time, but they certainly aren’t an intimidating matchup. Their projected lineup has a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Severino offers a high floor and a high ceiling, which makes him a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.
They Are Who We Thought They Were
The Indians move from one hitter friendly venue to the next as they travel to Great American Ballpark to take on Homer Bailey and the Reds. Homer Bailey had a “hey, I might be kind of good” moment immediately after returning from the DL but the reality is the Cincinnati veteran just doesn’t have it anymore. On the season, Bailey is the owner of a 6.19 ERA, 4.99 SIERA, 14.7 K%, 1.91 HR/9, 17.5 HR/FB%, and a 42.5% hard-hit rate. In case you were wondering, that’s not good. Cleveland hitters are going to be chalky right alongside the DBacks down in Arlington but rightfully so. Despite being expensive, Lindor and Ramirez are the main attractions here.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis Hard Hit
What if I told you there was a team in the best hitting environment of the night going up against a pitcher with the fifth highest hard hit rate of the slate and you could get their players at single digit ownership? Would you be interested in that? That’s exactly what we have with the Texas Rangers as they host Zack Greinke down in Arlington. Diamondbacks hitters will be the absolute chalk on Monday’s slate but DFS’ers will likely see ‘Zack Greinke’ listed as the Rangers opposing pitcher and move right on by. Don’t do that. Joey Gallo represents one of the best GPP options of the entire slate and the hot hitting Rougned Odor is a great play at a weak second base position. While I love the idea of using those two guys as fillers in a game stack, I’m also not opposed to just full out stacking Rangers hitters.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos Sometimes You Just Have To
Let’s be clear here, nobody has any idea how Sean Reid-Foley is going to pitch in his first career start. There is obviously some risk with a 22-year old kid in his first game. Even if he’s going to be great, there could be jitters in his way. But, at this salary, almost anybody would be playable against the Royals. And Reid-Foley may well be much better than ‘just anybody’. He had a big 27.4% strikeout rate with just 7.9% walks, a 3.50 ERA and 3.30 xFIP in 82 innings at Triple-A. Those numbers suggest he should be at least an average pitcher, with upside from there out of the gate, and he’s priced below Bartolo Colon and even with Clayton Richard. I’m in.
Top Tier Ownership
It’s a little difficult to get a read on SP1 ownership for Monday’s slate. Early indications are that Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw will draw in the high end money which could leave Severino under-owned in a favorable matchup against the Mets. Prior to his last start, Severino had struggled mightily over the last month or so and it’s tough to know if his success against the White Sox was simply due to their incompetencies as an offense. I’m willing to bet on two years of a sub 3.35 SIERA and 27%+ strikeout rate as opposed to one month of struggles and am looking to go overweight on Severino.
Chalk and Pivot
I am not sure if labeling Reid-Foley as a GPP play is really accurate as slate context could have SRF easily coming in as chalk as SP2 on DraftKings. Reid-Foley will make his Major League debut on Monday night and gets a great matchup on the road against the Kansas City Royals at hitter friendly Kauffman Stadium. SRF has posted strong strikeout totals this year in the Minors (29.2 K% in AA; 27.4 K% in AAA) and has been good in terms of run prevention (2.03 ERA, 3.38 xFIP in AA; 3.50 ERA, 3.30 xFIP in AAA). Something to note: Clayton Richard is the same price on DraftKings. Richard is certainly the less #fun option of the two as he seemingly has less upside but he is worth looking into as a pivot if it appears that ownership is going to skew heavily toward SRF.
Other tagged players: Clayton Richard Catch A Value
There are plenty of obvious bats to spend on tonight, and several positions that are loaded with expensive and cheap plays to love. Catcher is not one of those postions on DK. We’ve got a middle of the order bat, and one of the best hitting catchers in the league at just $3,400. Even if Toronto’s Sean Reid-Foley swoops in with a strong first start, we’ve still got the fly balls and hard hits of Perez at a discount, and we’ve still got a bad Toronto bullpen waiting in the wings. The salary, talent and lineup spot make this an easy fit in all formats.
Too Cheap On FanDuel
If you’re playing on FanDuel, Yonder Alonso needs to be considered in all formats. The Cleveland are a top three stack tonight, and he’s first baseman number 13 over there. He has a .212 ISO with a .457 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, Homer Bailey continues to struggle with left-handed hitters, as he has a .375 wOBA with a .250 ISO and a 36.6% hard-hit rate against lefties in 2018. This is a ballpark upgrade for the Indians, as it’s one of the better ballparks in baseball for home runs.
