DFS Alerts

The Rangers are sitting their top LH bat (Choo) against a quality LHP, who has a small platoon split (LHBs .314 wOBA, .302 xwOBA since 2017 – RHBs .324 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). Marco Gonzales did allowe four runs to Toronto in his last start (he’d allowed a combined four runs over his previous three starts), but still struck out seven over seven innings. His strikeout rate is up to 24.2% over his last seven starts, but this is a really tough park, against an offense with a 136 wRC+, 7.2 K-BB% and 18.3 HR/FB over the last week. It’s a small victory for him that the Rangers have just a 4.87 implied run line in this environment. There are still a few bats players probably want exposure to in this lineup. Top overall, is probably Jurickson Profar (121 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year). Top value is probably Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .179 ISO, 46 Hard%), still below $4K on DraftKings. Elvis Andrus (129 wRC+, .206 ISO) is somewhere in between. Two LHBs to think about, because it’s still a great park and not a bad spot, are Rougned Odor (84 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Joey Gallo (110 wRC+, .271 ISO), who are both above a 200 wRC+ over the last week with a combined seven HRs over that span.

Site Specific Values

The Dodgers are a team loaded with power bats facing a home run prone pitcher. On FanDuel, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are all priced below $3,000. All four have hard hit rates above 38%, fly ball rates above 42% and ISO’s of at least .239. If picking one, we may as well start at the top of the lineup with Pederson having the highest contact rate of the group, giving him a solid .403 wOBA against righties.

Just Too Good

Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez continue to just be better than everyone else. The shortstop eligibility and lower salary will give the edge to Lindor, but play them both if possible, even in cash games, but certainly in Cleveland stacks. Jake Odorizzi allows fly balls and hard hits and he doesn’t have the strikeout stuff to lefties to get past these guys. Lindor comes in with a .290 ISO and .387 wOBA with 42% hard hits against righties and just 16.4% K.

One Of Several

There are a handful of high end offenses tonight, and Anthony Rizzo gives us access to one of the top teams leadoff hitters with a mix of on base run scoring upside, as well as power. The Royals are throwing a low strikeout starter in Heath Fillmyer against the 9.8% K rate and .377 wOBA from Rizzo. He’s a great cash game option and a key piece in Cubs stacks.

Whiff Heavy

Man, I don’t really like Chacin, but he’s the guy I’m most likely to play in this price range simply due to matchup. San Diego put up a fight against Chase Anderson on Tuesday night but remain a whiff-heavy offense (25.8 K%) that really struggles against right-handed pitching (80 wRC+). Chacin (3.89 ERA) is likely over-performing his true talent but he still has some upside on his price tag regardless. I’m not sure I’ll have significant exposure here but think he’s the guy to look to at this price range.

Runaway top implied run line does not come from Coors this afternoon

At 6.13 implied runs, the Mariners easily lead the slate, even well above the Rockies at Coors. That’s because Yovani Gallardo (14.3 K%) has an ERA above six with estimators all above five, more due to a 3.3 K-BB% than contact issues (4.5% Barrels/BBE). These are the kind of pitchers players should want to stack against, as there should be plenty of traffic on the bases, though we may not necessarily be looking for individual home runs. Gallardo has allowed three HRs in four starts at home this year. None the less, Nelson Cruz (163 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been on fire (246 wRC+, five HRs last seven days) and is the clear top bat on this team and perhaps even the top value, even at a high price,in this spot. Mitch Haniger (135 wRC+, .227 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. While LHBs have a .339 wOBA against Gallardo that’s 26 points lower than RHBs since last season, xwOBA puts batters from either side within three points of .360. It’s hard to find an unplayable Seattle bat among the first eight in the order, considering the damage Mike Zunino (116 wRC+, .230 ISO) can do in the eighth spot at a tough position.

We Got a Homer (Bailey) Situation

I want to use this space to talk a bit about the Nats best pitcher…Tommy Milone. Ok, now that I got my Scherzer dig in, let’s talk. I think we got a Homer Bailey situation on our hands here. Milone has been great in his two starts for the Nats this season but it seems likely that his success was more matchup related (MIA/NYM) than actual skill related. Odds are Milone isn’t anything better than a league average pitcher at this stage in his career and he has a tough matchup on Wednesday night against a tough Braves offense (20 K%, 110 wRC+ vs LHP). Don’t chase the game logs here, folks.

Afternoon slate pitching is fairly straight forward and mostly dictated by park

The afternoon slate consists of four games on both sites and includes both of the two most positive run environments in baseball (Texas and Colorado). There are actually three pretty decent pitchers in those games (Marco Gonzales, Chris Archer, and German Marquez), holding two of the four teams (Rangers and Pirates) a bit below five implied runs, but theses four teams still comprise the top half of an eight team board with no team from either of the other two games owning a higher run line. Patrick Corbin is the lone $10K pitcher on either site. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, but no more than four and has gone at least six innings in each, striking out 25 of his last 76 batters over his last three. His 30.7 K% is tops on the board for the entire day among regular starters this season as is his 2.95 SIERA. The Phillies have an 88 wRC+ vs LHP with a lower 22.7 K% and elite walk rate (10.7%), but with less power (10.1 HR/FB). They’ve also picked up a couple of competent RH bats recently, but there’s not nearly enough to pull players off of Corbin here. The next most interesting arm is his opponent, Vince Velasquez, who is not very consistent, but has a 27.4 K%, 3.74 SIERA and .294 xwOBA that’s exactly the same as Corbin’s. He’s coming off 6.1 shutout innings against Miami (seven Ks). The Diamondbacks have also improved their lineup with health and trades recently, but still have an 87 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP this year. The Tigers and Angels are the destination for cheap SP2 types on this slate, though Blaine Hardy is up to $7.2K on DraftKings. He last one-hit Oakland through seven innings with six strikeouts and has been a competent arm for the Tigers this year (18.2 K%, .297 xwOBA) split between the rotation and bullpen. He’ll face a still Mike Trout-less Angels’ offense with an 85 wRC+ vs LHP. Jaime Barria has gone nine starts without more than five strikeouts and has just a 13.6 K% over the last month. He’s not an exceptional contact manager either (.356 xwOBA, 88.9 mph aEV, 8.0% Barrels/BBE). The appeal here is simply in the most negative run environment on the board and the opponent (Tigers 73 wRC+ on the road, 75 wRC+ vs RHP and 52 wRC+ on the road – they have a sub-9.0 HR/FB in all three instances as well).

The Obvious Top Spot for Offense

Cleveland is obviously a high upside offense on pretty much every slate, but that upside is magnified tonight against a fly ball pitcher that is very much prone to the long ball. These Cleveland power bats could absolutely smash against Jake Odorizzi, and the lefties make a lot of sense, as Odorizzi has allowed a .361 wOBA to lefties this year and has a sub-25% ground ball rate against them. Bombs away. The Indians are a great stack if you are saving with your pitching options tonight, with Ramirez and Lindor leading the way.

Recent Form vs. Matchup and Track Record

It’s no secret that Severino hasn’t been in top form lately. He has given up at least four runs in four straight starts, and his strikeouts have been alarmingly low in that stretch. The starts against Boston and Cleveland (two very tough offenses) can be forgiven, but it’s tough to ignore the upside against a White Sox team that is the perfect matchup for him to get back on track against a free-swinging offense. His ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all remain in the low threes, and the overall profile remains positive. This is a great spot to buy in at the right time.

Solid Salary Relief

John Gant is by no means a special talent at the major league level. He possesses league average stuff, and sometimes his command gets him in trouble. However, he does have some strikeout upside on nights where he brings his “A” game, and the matchup here is obviously great against the Marlins. Assuming he can throw strikes, I love the point per dollar potential for his cheap price point. The recent form isn’t terrible outside of a bad start against the Pirates his last time out. Give him a look as an SP2 option this evening.

A Top Sneaky Stack

The Brewers won’t get the same attention as teams like the Indians and Cubs tonight, but don’t sleep on them as a GPP stack. Mike Moustakas is one of my favorite hitting options on the slate. The price tag is very affordable with Moustakas, and he’s a great point per dollar value on this slate (especially on FanDuel). His offensive outlook is much better in Milwaukee than it was in Kansas City, and that has proven to be the case so far in his brief time with the Brewers. He has home runs in back-to-back games and could easily make it three tonight. Fire him up with confidence against an unproven pitcher in Brett Kennedy. Guys like Shaw and Cain also offer power potential and make for great components of a team stack, as well.

Power Upside

The Rays never get much traction as an offense, but I like their power bats tonight against Andrew Cashner. It stats with Jakob Bauers, who is one of my favorite GPP bats of the night. Bauers is not hitting for average right now, but the power potential is clearly there. He owns a .362 wOBA and .254 ISO against right-handed pitching so far in his career, and he gets to face an underwhelming righty in Andrew Cashner this evening. I love the GPP power potential here, and you can include a guy like Cron or Wendle in as part of a GPP stack.

Still Elite

The once dominant strikeouts are probably just not coming back for Kershaw, but this is still an elite real life pitcher, and on this type of slate, qualifies as a DFS ace, with questions marks surrounding every other pitcher on this slate. He is back up to the 100-pitch mark regularly, with his usual elite control, and ground balls and soft contact. While his strikeouts are not what they once were, he’s still at a solid 25.5% K, facing an Oakland team with above average strikeouts. There is not a lot of points per dollar upside here, but this is the safest cash game play on the board tonight.

Maybe It Comes Back

Based on this FanDuel salary and the overall skills for Luis Severino, this would be an absolute no brainer lock button against the White Sox. However, Severino is in the midst of the worst stretch of pitching we’ve seen from him in the last two years. The strikeouts are way down to 16.5% over the last month, and he’s allowed 20 runs in his last 20 innings. I don’t see any red flags in his pitch type, maybe he’s worn down, maybe there’s something wrong with his arm, but if there were any injury concern, I would have to assume the Yankees would know about it. The longterm skills are so strong, and the matchup so good, I just can’t overlook this salary. It is not without risk given his current form, but at full strength, this would be an $11k pitcher, and we’re getting him for less than we’re being asked to pay for Mike Clevinger. I’m playing him in cash games and going over his likely high ownership in tournaments, and just hoping this short term blip is over.