DFS Alerts
Road Stack on my Radar
The Red Sox are facing a rookie pitcher that is making his first career major league start. They have one of the most talented offenses in baseball and they are playing on the road, which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats. Baseball can be random and volatile, but this certainly sets up well for a Red Sox stack. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts all boast a .380+ xwOBA and a .210+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Plenty of Home Run Upside
The Indians are always near the top of my list of favorite stacks and that’s certainly the case again tonight. They are facing a pitcher with a high fly-ball rate and a high hard contact rate. In case you haven’t noticed, the Indians absolutely mash right-handed pitching. There should be plenty of extra-base hits to go around in this one. Historically, Jake Odorizzi has been a reverse-splits pitcher, but he has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate this season. Meanwhile, each of the first five hitters in the Indians’ lineup has a .385+ xwOBA and a .190+ ISO against right-handed pitching.
Options are Thin When it Comes to an SP2
It’s safe to say that the Chase Anderson chalk night went as expected. While that was painful, it could help lower Chacin’s ownership a bit tonight in the same matchup. Chacin has been up and down this season, but his form has been solid in his last three starts — 3.34 SIERA with a 26% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate. At a price of only $7,500, I’m more than willing to go back to the well. The Padres’ projected lineup has a .293 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Slight Discount at the Top
Fading Clayton Kershaw never makes me feel good inside, but I prefer Severino over him in both cash games and tournaments. The fact that he’s cheaper across the industry makes the decision that much easier. Severino currently owns a 3.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% on the season. He draws an elite matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a .327 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Cheap exposure to the middle of tonight's top projected lineup
The Cubs are currently the high team on the board at 5.49 implied runs in Kansas City. Heath Fillmyer (14 K%, 5.14 SIERA) has generated a lot of weak contact (3.2% Barrels/BBE, 28.4% 95+ mph EV) on the ground (53.7%) to compensate for other inefficiencies, but has actually allowed same-handed batters a .376 wOBA and 51.1 Hard% in his four major league starts. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball and has gone more than five innings just once so far. A pitcher with a 2.3 K-BB% against an offense with an 11.0 K-BB% vs RHP, this is a stacking situation, where players are looking for walks to turn into runs and big innings. The are giving daily fantasy players a gift with David Bote (168 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP) batting cleanup, offering cheap exposure ($3.7K DK, $2.6K FD) to the middle of the top lineup. Considering the reverse split so far, Javier Baez (123 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) might be the most interesting bat here, but is also easily the most expensive.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Heath Fillmyer
Low run line in a tough park, but two bats stand out vs pitcher with platoon issues
John Gant is a low priced pitching option tonight in a great park, made better by the fact that the Marlins (3.89 implied runs) have few competent LHBs, but he has had some platoon issues. LHBs have a .334 wOBA (.367 xwOBA) and a ridiculous 55 Hard% against him since last season. Derek Dietrich (129 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Bour (136 wRC+, .243 ISO) have been quality bats and both are $3K or less on FanDuel tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, John Gant Daily Bullpen Alert: A team FIP above five over the last month and a 13 inning game last night
Four bullpens are above a five FIP over the last 30 days. Just two of them (Blue Jays 5.41, 16.8 K-BB% and White Sox 5.08, 13.4 K-BB%) are on the slate tonight and both have healthy peripherals, Toronto the sixth best K-BB% in baseball over that span. The White Sox did use six relievers in a 13 inning game last night and could be a bit beat up tonight behind Lucas Giolito against the Yankees. Heath Fillmyer is the only pitcher on the board averaging fewer than five innings per start. The Royals (4.86 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) have actually been a bit better, but are still near the bottom of the board over the last month. Unfortunately, those appear to be the only really interesting spots on the board. While the board is far from deep in quality starters tonight, it does lack a lot of bullpens in attackable spots.
Main slate mid-range pitching is tough, but with one potentially strong matchup
The pitching options for Wednesday night are tough. Like, really, really tough. A few of the high priced arms have issues. Some others have major weather concerns. The most interesting arms left over probably come down to the St Louis/Miami game. John Gant most recently got drilled for six runs in Pittsburgh and hasn’t exceeded five innings in any of his last three starts. His 41% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board too, but he does have a 20.1 K% with a 12.0 SwStr% this season and he gets to face the Marlins (82 wRC+ at home, 86 wRC+ vs RHP, 45 wRC+ last seven days) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball for less than $6.5K. The opposing pitcher is Trevor Richards, who costs between $7.5K and $8K on either site. After starting the season with a 21.9 K-BB% in six AAA starts, he has a 22.5 K% and 10.4 BB% in 16 major league starts. However, his line over his last four starts: 23.2 IP – 2 R – 7 BB – 25 K – 91 BF. The Cardinals are a marginal offense with a 95 wRC+ vs RHP.
Other tagged players: John Gant One high priced pitcher may be back to form, two others certainly aren't
Clayton Kershaw is the only pitcher above $10K on both sites tonight. While the immortal known as peak Kershaw may be gone forever, he’s gone at least six innings in six straight starts and has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four against contact prone teams like the Braves and Angels too. Nobody on the main slate has a 30% strikeout rate. His 25.5 K% this year is third best tonight. His .293 xwOBA is best on the board among regular starters and nobody betters his 86.5 mph aEV. The A’s are dangerous (102 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs LHP), but have been better than RHP and the park is still a negative run environment. This version of Kershaw is probably useful in a daily fantasy setting and the top overall pitcher on this board. Luis Severino drops below $10K on FanDuel. He’s in a great spot (White Sox 18.9 K-BB% at home, 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP), but has not completed six innings or allowed fewer than three runs in any of his last five starts and has a 16.5 K% over the last month. The cost ($9.4K on FD), might be too low for the talent in this spot though. Mike Foltynewicz is $10.6K on DK, but $1.8K less on FD. Over his last five starts, he has a 6.14 ERA and 5.16 FIP (seven HRs) with a 24.2 K%. He faces a Washington offense with a 20.3 K% vs RHP and 13.7 K% over the last week. Mike Clevinger is around $9.5K and has a 32 K% over the last month. Cleveland is a very positive run environment and the Twins have a 21.5 K% vs RHP, but a 28.2 K% over the last week. They’ve struck out 19 times against Cleveland starters in the first two games of this series.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Clevinger Two high quality LHBs against an inconsistent pitcher with some platoon issues
Vince Velasquez is a reasonably priced arm in a decent spot with some upside, but he’s not the most consistent arm out there and has had some issues with LHBs (.343 wOBA since last season, 10 HRs this year). Both David Peralta (140 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Eduardo Escobar (136 wRC+, .303 ISO) are high quality bats, who should be considered for the afternoon slate. Neither should be that popular considering the offensive projections in Texas and at Coors on this slate. Peralta has a 289 wRC+ with three HRs and a 68.2 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Vince Velasquez He's Back
Devon Travis is back. Travis has earned his way back to hitting second in the order for the Jays and has posted double-digit DK point totals in three of his last four games, including two 21 point performances. Travis has always had a strong offensive skill-set against LHP (119 wRC+, .208 ISO) but injuries and poor lineup spots have kept him off our radar for most of the last two seasons. Travis is way too cheap on FanDuel ($2,400) and he has an exploitable price tag on DraftKings as well ($3,700).
A poor NL debut and a board topping 89.9 mph aEV in a terrible park
New team and league, same disappointing results for Chris Archer in his first attempt for the Pirates: 4.1 IP – 5 R (3 ER) – 4 BB – 6 K. It’s not going to get any easier in Colorado for a pitcher with a full day board topping 89.9 mph aEV. The Rockies are nearly a full run behind the Mariners in Texas, but at 5.27 implied runs, are still easily the second highest team on an eight team board this afternoon. LHBs have had particular success against Archer since last season (.336 wOBA, 42.4 Hard%). The bad news is that Carlos Gonzalez is getting the day off. The good news is that Charlie Blackmon (126 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is back in the lineup and David Dahl (141 wRC+, .239 ISO) bats third. While RHBs have just a .297 wOBA against Archer since last season, it comes with a 37.6 Hard% and slightly below average GB rate (42.7%). Considering the environment, Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Trevor Story (101 wRC+, .235 ISO) are still playable here due to the power, but neither is probably among the top values on the board.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Chris Archer Bird Flew
So, umm, here’s the thing. Lucas Giolito is #bad. Giolito’s 5.97 ERA is reflective of his true talent – he’s the owner of a 5.78 SIERA, 14.3 K%, 12.6 BB%, and a poor batted ball profile. The absence of Gardner from the Yankees lineup led to Greg Bird hitting fifth on Tuesday and there’s a shot he could see top five in the order again on Wednesday. Bird has struggled offensively this season but has shown a lot of power against RHP (.230 ISO) throughout his career and should find himself with a lot of run producing opportunities with the Yankees expected to score 5+ runs against Giolito and the Sox.
Cheap Power
Heath Fillmyer’s 3.86 ERA is extremely deceiving. Fillmyer owns the slate’s worst SwStr% (6.5%) and has a walk rate (11.6%) that nearly matches his strikeout rate (14%). Enter Cubs exposure. Happ is very cheap across the industry and is the most cost effective way to get exposure to the Cubs 5.5 implied run total. Happ has shown a lot of power (.246 ISO) in his short Big League career against right handed pitching and there’s a chance he cracks top five in the order if Zobrist is unable to suit up.
Site Specific Values
There is no shortage of great high end bats tonight. It’s not an easy night to tab anyone as a Core Play, when it’s more about teams overall. But whatever high end team you stack in tournaments, you’re going to need a couple value bats on DK/FDRFT to make things work. Matt Kemp is not nearly my favorite Dodgers batters tonight, but he’s $3,330/$6,700. That is just really cheap for a guy batting .289 with 17 HR and 65 RBI for a loaded team against a middle of the road pitcher. You should not plan your lineups around Matt Kemp, but when you get down to those last few spots, he should fit.
