DFS Alerts

Cheap leadoff bat at Coors

David Dahl (143 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) just became the most popular bat on the slate. He’s batting leadoff against Joe Musgrove (LHBs .328 wOBA since 2017) at Coors for $3.5K or less. Musgrove is not a bad pitcher, but doesn’t miss a lot of bats (18.8 K%) and the Rockies have a 5.60 implied run line at home that’s not even that large by their usual standard at home, but this is a spot with a price that nobody can or probably will ignore. Musgrove doesn’t have much of a split and a Colorado stack with Carlos Gonzalez (137 wRC+, .241 ISO), Nolan Arenado (97 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Trevor Story (101 wRC+, .237 ISO) is now more affordable.

Dangerous lineup against an extremely HR prone pitcher

Kansas City is an environment that suppresses power fairly well, but Jakob Junis has still managed to allow 16 of his 26 HRs there this season. It’s a positive run environment overall though and a well disciplined Cubs’ offense (11.1 K-BB% vs RHP) could have some runners on when the ball leaves the yard. Their 5.28 implied run line compares favorably to some teams in more extreme run environments tonight. Junis has a below average ground ball rate and at least a 38 Hard% against batters from either side of the plate for his career. Batters from either side are also above a .340 xwOBA against him as well. Jason Heyward (108 wRC+, .140 ISO) is the only batter among the first seven below a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Anthony Rizzo (141 wRC+, .224 ISO), Javier Baez (120 wRC+, .253 ISO), Kyle Schwarber (138 wRC+, .301 ISO) and Ian Happ (129 wRC+, .239 ISO) are all well above a .200 ISO as well.

Above five implied runs despite facing a quality pitcher on top of his game recently

An offense with a with a 117 wRC+ at home in a very positive run environment is enough to get Cleveland to 5.02 implied runs despite facing a very competent pitcher in Kyle Gibson, who’s elevated his game even further recently (26.5 K%, 14.9 SwStr%, 3.66 SIERA, .319 xwOBA over the last month). He’s held batters from either side of the plate to exactly a .289 wOBA this season, though LHBs do have a 39.8 Hard with just a 41.2 GB% against him. If the super trio of Francisco Lindor (141 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (131 wRC+, .195 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (179 wRC+, .354 ISO) are not going to be well represented at home (check ownership projections later), players have to consider this. RHBs have a 16.4 K-BB% and 51.9 GB% against Gibson this year, but Edwin Encarnacion (132 wRC+, .275 ISO) has homered four times against him in 31 PAs.

Terrible park, solid contact manager, but some great bats vs LHP

Each of the eight batters in the St Louis lineup have at least a 108 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year with only cleanup hitter Marcell Ozuna (118 wRC+, .158 ISO) below a .200 ISO. That’s some proficiency against a southpaw who has allowed a .350 wOBA to RHBs since the start of last season. Howeve,r they have just a 4.44 run line for a reason. Wei-Yin Chen doesn’t miss bats (16.9 K%), but manages contact fairly well (.318 xwOBA, 86.3 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE this season). In fact, RHBs have just a .317 xwOBA against him since last season, 33 points below their actual mark. Miami also greatly suppresses power and is an extremely negative run environment. That said, Jose Martinez (163 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Jedd Gyorko (197 wRC+, .337 ISO) have been so good against LHP over the last calendar year at reasonable prices that they can’t be ignored. And despite Chen’s dominance of LHBs (.244 wOBA since 2017), perhaps Matt Carpenter (142 wRC+, .269 ISO) can’t be either (269 wRC+, four HRs last seven days).

Daily Bullpen Alert: Each of the six worst pens by FIP last 30 days are active on a 10 game slate

We’re still waiting for some revamped bullpen to round into form following the trade deadline, but most relievers have now spent a week or so in their new destinations with some effects beginning to be seen. There are four bullpens above a five FIP over the last month. The worst two are Cleveland (5.75) and Arizona (5.30). Both have received key pieces and are above an 11 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Both are starting quality pitchers against marginal offenses tonight. The other two teams are facing each other (Mets 5.19, 6.7 K-BB% & Reds 5.02, 9.1 K-BB%). For the home team, Noah Syndergaard looked better in his last start and got through seven innings. For the road team, even Homer Bailey has struck out 14 of 56 batters, allowing just four ERs over 14.2 innings since returning, while the Mets have a 77 wRC+ at home. The Royals (4.97 FIP, 8.1 K-BB%) are always near the bottom of the league. Home run prone Jakob Junis is facing a well-disciplined Cubs’ offense. Wei-Yin Chen is the only pitcher averaging fewer than five innings per start and the Marlins have a team 4.76 FIP, 8.3 K-BB% over the last 30 days, but he has gone six innings in each of his last four home starts. Opposite him, Luke Weaver averages around 5.1 innings per start (just 2.2 last time out) and the St Louis pen has a 4.33 FIP with an 7.9 K-BB% over the last month, but that would require rostering Marlins in Miami. Martin Perez gets in around five innings per start as well. The Rangers have a 4.90 FIP and 11.8 K-BB% in the last month and the game is being played in the highly positive run environment of Texas. That puts each of the six worst bullpens by FIP over the last month on tonight’s board on a 10 game slate.

There may be some pitching bargains on the middle and lower end of Monday's board

Though not a ton of arms with enormous upside and consistency, this is a board with some pitching depth. Luke Weaver has struggled in two of his last three starts, but has gone six innings with two ERs or less and at least five strikeouts in three of his last five. By strikeout rate (21%), SIERA (4.37 – better than Lance Lynn) and xwOBA (.337 – better than Lynn and Cole Hamels), he’s been a reasonably competent pitcher this year, who seems to manage contact decently (86.9 mph aEV). He’s in a great spot tonight with a park boost in Miami (8.8 HR/FB at home, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP) at a reasonable price (around $7K). Nick Tropeano has a 10% walk rate and has allowed 15 HRs over 13 starts (89.8 mph aEV). He does have an 11.7 SwStr% that suggests better than his 20 K% and the Tigers have just a 73 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB on the road and a 75 wRC+, 15.7 K-BB% and 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP. His weaknesses are also theirs. Zack Godley set a season high with 10 strikeouts in seven two-hit innings against a hot Texas offense last time out. Over the last month, he has a 29.7 K%, 16.4 SwStr% and 3.06 SIERA, all best on the board. He’s in a high upside spot (Phillies 25.8 K%, 8.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) at home. Matt Boyd has allowed three runs over his last 19 innings with 20 strikeouts. He has a 22 K% on the season and a 3.10 SIERA over the last month. His .290 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. He’s been a great contact manager (86.2 mph aEV, 3.9% Barrels/BBE, 28.8% 95+ mph EV). He gets a park upgrade and the Angels have just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP despite being predominantly right-handed and Mike Trout has missed the last four games with a wrist issue. Wei-Yin Chen is also an interesting, nearly min-priced DK SP2 option. Without much upside, he has gone six innings in each of his last four home starts, allowing more than one run in just one of those. He has just a 16.9 K%, but manages contact well enough (.318 xwOBA, 86.3 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE). The Cardinals do have some proficiency against LHP (104 wRC+, 10 BB%, 17.3 HR/FB), but it’s the most negative run environment and possibly most power suppressing one on the board.

Bounce Back Opportunity at a Discounted Price Point

Syndergaard is underpriced tonight against the Reds. There’s no other way to put it. He’s priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I know that his strikeouts have been down since coming back from injury, but he’s still one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. On the season, he has a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 5%. He has a higher soft contact rate than hard contact rate and he throws his fastball at an average of 97 MPH. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Reds, who see a negative ballpark shift playing in Citi Field. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .309 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Power and Stolen Base Upside

The White Sox are a sneaky offense to target tonight (basically any night that they are facing a mediocre right-handed pitcher at home). Even though they are large underdogs, a matchup against Lance Lynn is enticing for those that can bat from the left side of the plate. On the season, he has allowed a .383 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to lefties. Yoan Moncada might be my favorite hitter of the entire slate when factoring in price. He has a .207 ISO against right-handed pitching and 11 stolen bases on the season.

Wide potential range of outcomes for tonight's highest priced pitchers

Trevor Bauer and Charlie Morton are the only two pitchers above $10K on either site and also the only two pitchers with a 30% strikeout rate. Bauer (30.7 K%) is the most expensive pitcher by more than $1K on either site. He is second on the slate in strikeout rate and xwOBA (.277) by the smallest fraction of a point, but he’s also coming off one of his worst starts of the season with just three strikeouts against the same Twins he faces tonight in a more difficult park at home. he’s struck out fewer than eight just five times over his last 19 starts, fewer than six just twice. He’s pitched into the seventh in 17 of 23 starts. Slight concern for the 11.7 BB% and 38.8 Hard% over the last month that may be enough reason to fade him in a marginal spot (Twins 12.1 K-BB%, but just a 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but he’s still probably a pitcher that multi-lineup GPP players will want some exposure to as he can certainly put up the best numbers on the slate. Morton only exceeds $10K on DraftKings. He’s not been the most consistent pitcher either, but leads the board with a 30.8 K%. He moves from one great park to another tonight with San Francisco also suppressing power a great deal. The Giants have a 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP and a 10.7 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. Noah Syndergaard exceeds $10K on neither site, but is the next most expensive arm on either. Perhaps he’s a bit under-valued here. While not back to previous form, he did look better late in his most recent start, in which he completed seven innings. His three starts back were against Washington twice and the Yankees. For the season, his 13.9 SwStr% and .276 xwOBA are both best on the board behind the lowest aEV (85.8 mph) and Barrels/BBE (3.0%). . The Reds are a decently disciplined offense (11.7 K-BB% vs RHP), but have just a 10.5 HR/FB on the road and 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP and move from a positive and power friendly environment to an extremely negative one that is not nearly as power friendly. While these are the top three pitchers on the board, the potential range of outcomes on any of them seems fairly wide.

Elite Pitcher at Home

Bauer wasn’t his elite self in his last start (15 fantasy points against the Twins in Minnesota), but he is still having a career year. In 23 starts, he has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points (DK scoring) in six of his last ten starts and has averaged 27 fantasy points per start at home this season. He is the top projected pitcher of the slate, although you can argue that Noah Syndergaard is the better point-per-dollar option given the big discount. I plan to have plenty of exposure to both, although I feel a little more comfortable with Bauer given where his form has been in the last month.

Power Upside In Coors

Looking to save money with some cheap Coors bats, Jose Osuna is another person on my list. His strikeout rate is up this season, but so are his power numbers against lefties. In a small sample size, he has a .257 ISO with a .433 CXwOBA against lefties in 2018. Last season he had a .194 ISO with a low wOBA but a very high contact rate. He’s a young hitter so seeing numbers like this doesn’t worry me very much. Freeland has a .317 wOBA with a .144 ISO and a 16% strikeout rate against righties this season, and while those wOBA and ISO numbers are solid, his xFIP suggests some regression against right-handed hitters.

Take Advantage On FanDuel

This FanDuel price on Ryon Healy will likely make him one of the most popular options over there tonight. His numbers have been down against lefties this season, but when facing a lefty with a low strikeout rate, I tend to look more at CXwOBA than wOBA. While his wOBA is .302, his CXwOBA is .434 against lefties. In 179 PAs against righties this season, Martin Perez has a .437 wOBA with a .221 ISO and a 32.1% hard to soft contact ratio. I love attacking Seattle bats when they’re on the road, and they’re getting a massive ballpark upgrade tonight.

Sneaky, Sneaky

It’s pretty simple-minded but whenever I am looking for a sneaky stack one of the first things I look at is which probable starter has the lowest SwStr% and then I go from there. Martin Perez and Dylan Covey lead the way on Monday’s slate but not far behind those two heavily targeted pitchers is Jake Arrieta with a 7.2 SwStr%. While Arrieta does have a batted ball profile I wouldn’t typically target – weak contact, ground balls – his run prevention metrics do indicate he’s prime for regression (3.32 ERA, 4.36 SIERA).

Additionally, the veteran righty has had trouble preventing stolen bases throughout his career (too bad Phillies catchers are above average in this area). While I’m not high on the Diamondbacks for power in this matchup, individually they do have hitters that can provide some pop to go along with stolen base upside. The Diamondbacks are clearly a second-tier stack but one that is in play because of projected low ownership.

Power Stack

It’s no Wrigley Wind but warm temps in Kansas City combined with wind blowing out should have Kauffman playing more hitter friendly on Monday night when the Cubs come into town. Junis’ 40% fly ball rate combined with a 41.1 Hard% has led to a huge HR problem for the young Royals righty as he’s already allowed 26 HRs on the year. Despite games being played in Arlington and Coors, I would give the Cubbies the highest power upside of the slate which makes them a tremendous stack.

Cheap Bat In Coors

I don’t typically pick on Joe Musgrove, but he’s getting the most extreme ballpark shift tonight and no pitcher is safe in Coors. David Dahl got called back up from AAA over the weekend, and I’m really hoping he draws the start tonight. He’s cheap across the industry, and he won’t stay this cheap, as he has a .254 ISO with a .409 wOBA in 70 PAs against right-handed pitching this season. Dahl was out two months with a fractured foot, but hit .346 in six Minor League games before getting called back up.