DFS Alerts
GPP Value
The thing about Pablo Lopez is that he’s actually been pretty good. Lopez has been throwing better than his 4.67 ERA would indicate – he’s the owner of a 3.94 SIERA, has a good batted ball profile (high GB%, limited hard-hit rate), and has posted a decent SwStr% (10.1%). It’s fair to question what type of upside Lopez and his 19.7% strikeout rate have but his price tag ($5,800) helps ease those concerns. Lopez is a long shot from being a top performer in terms of raw fantasy points on Tuesday night but he is a strong pt/$ option that gives you some flexibility when constructing your lineups.
Ace of Aces
It’s never a matter of if you want to play Max Scherzer, it’s just a matter of if you can afford him. He’s right back on track with two straight double digit strikeout games, his 11th and 12th of the season and while this isn’t an ideal matchup, Scherzer is as matchup proof as they come. With the nice hitting salaries available on FD tonight, I think you should be able to get him in your cash games there. On DK/FDRFT, I see him as more of a tournament target, where you can either pair him with a long shot punt SP2, or a lineup packed with value bats.
Matchup Aided SP2
If you can’t afford to get up to two top pitchers tonight, Chase Anderson wins the Righty vs San Diego sweepstakes tonight. He has been pitching better recently, having allowed two runs or less in eight straight starts. The only negative is that the innings have been low, but the lack of power from San Diego should allow him the chance to get back up to the six inning mark if things go his way. He’s not a huge upside guy, so I prefer him in cash games, but at this salary on DK/FDRFT, he’s viable in any format.
Go Back Here Tonight
Both the Coors Field and Texas game had down night’s on Monday, but we need a short memory there. We have two old men who are shells of their former selves pitching in the heat tonight. Felix Hernandez has completely lost his ground ball and soft contact ability to left-handed batters, allowing a .351 wOBA and .234 ISO this season. The big three lefties of Choo, Odor and Gallo are high end plays tonight, with Choo leading the charge from the top of the lineup with his .240 ISO, .398 wOBA and 46% hard hits.
Site Specific Values
There are a few spots with big pricing discrepancies between the sites, none more notable than the Brewers righties against Clayton Richard. Richard has been in terrible form recently, with more walks than strikeouts in six straight starts. Lorenzo Cain leads off with an 86% contact rate, and he keeps the ball in the air, offsetting the lone skill of Richard. Along with teammate Jesus Aguilar, Cain is way too cheap on FanDuel tonight.
A Nice Second Place
We’ve got three pitchers at the top of the heap tonight with Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Zack Greinke. Of course, play Scherzer if you can afford him, but if you can’t quite get there, on FD, I would side with Carrasco ahead of Greinke at a similar salary. The overall skills are very close between the two, but Carrasco has the edge in strikeouts at 27.8% to 25.9%, and Carrasco has been at the top of his game recently. He is all the way up at 35% strikeouts over his last four starts, and is showing elite control giving him a solid floor underneath those strikeouts.
Discount Ace
We’ve got three pitchers at the top of the heap tonight with Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Zack Greinke. Of course, play Scherzer if you can afford him, but on DK/FDRFT, there is a huge savings down to Greinke. His already strong skills continue to improve as the season moves on, up to 29.3% K and just 4.1% BB over the past month. He’s started bringing his hard contact down as well. It’s not an easy matchup, but this salary is too low for a pitcher with this skill set and consistency.
Take The Value
After the big night on Monday, Jeff McNeil is likely to be popular tonight, but this is a tough savings to pass on. He showed outstanding contact skills in the minors and has carried those right over to the majors with just a 14.6% K rate in his first 12 games. The Reds’ Sal Romano is a pitcher without a skill against lefties, coming in with a low 14.2% K rate, high 10.6% walks and high 41% hard hits allowed. If McNeil is back towards the top of the lineup, he is close to a must play in cash games, and this is they type of value that allows you to get up to the more expensive spots on the board.
Lead it Off Here
The Coors Field game disappointed last night, but so did just about everything. Tonight’s matchup is not easy for the Rockies, and they are far from a must stack, but the splits on Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon are significant with 27 K to righties dropping all the way to 17.8% against lefties. He is also likely to lose some bits on his curve and sinker tonight, adding further risk against the .246 ISO and .366 wOBA of Charlie Blackmon.
Contact prone pitcher facing a contact prone team in the most positive run environment
The Pirates are a contact prone offense. Tonight’s confirmed lineup has just a 17.9 K% vs LHP according to PlateIQ. Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland has not exceeded five strikeouts in nine straight starts. A lot of BABIP is going to have to go his way in a park notorious for high BABIPs for this to end up a successful effort for him tonight. It’s a bit of a surprise to find the Pirates below five implied runs (4.91) here. For his career, RHBs have a .321 wOBA against Freeland at Coors, despite a 57.4 GB% and 2.3 Hard-Soft%. However, in 2018, RHBs have a 48 GB% and 4.0 Hard-Soft% with a .315 wOBA and six HRs at Coors. He’s still generating a lot of weak contact, but needs not as much on the ground and needs to miss more bats in that park. The Pirates will still lead off LH Corey Dickerson (103 wRC+, .115 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Starling Marte has done little against LHP (63 wRC+, .152 ISO) batting second. The most interesting bats here might be the catchers, Francisco Cervelli (113 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Elias Diaz (156 wRC+, .207 ISO), both in the lineup tonight. The one thing we can be fairly certain of is balls being put in play tonight. Without a lot of power though, a Pittsburgh lineup with increasing price tags is going to have to put some hits together, which may not be too hard against a defense that has allowed a .302 BABIP this year. Freeland somehow has a .250 BABIP and 91.2 LOB% at home this year.
Other tagged players: Elias Diaz, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Kyle Freeland
A few spots to watch on Monday night
Kevin’s updated forecast is up and available to read on the Weather page. There are a few spots to watch, though overall concern levels don’t appear to be too high. Premium subscribers can get additional updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Expensive lineup likely to score runs and have traffic on bases, but lack standout bats
The Yankees are coming off a four game sweep in Boston and are on the road in Chicago tonight, yet are still one of tonight’s top projected offenses at 5.56 implied runs. Perhaps that’s because Dylan Covey has allowed at least four runs in seven of his last eight starts with a -2.2 K-BB% over that span. While most Yankee bats are still above average, have power or both against RHP, without Judge, Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .240 ISO) is essentially the top bat in the lineup. He has the top ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and only Miguel Andujar (123 wRC+, .186 ISO) is higher via wRC+. While batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Covey since last season, he generates ground balls on more than 50% of contact against either side as well and has only allowed eight HRs all season, four in one game in Texas. This lineup probably works best as a stack in this spot, but they aren’t cheap. Three of the first four batters cost at least $5K on DraftKings. The Yankees will probably have traffic on the bases against Covey and should score some runs, but Giancarlo Stanton (114 wRC+, .238 ISO) is the closest thing to a standout bat near the top of the order and value may be marginal in an expensive lineup.
Other tagged players: Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Dylan Covey Two solid LHBs against a RHP who has struggled with platoon splits
Jake Arrieta is not often a pitcher that players attack. Even if he’s not striking a lot of batters out this season, he’s still generating ground balls at a 52.4% clip and allowing just 4.4% Barrels/BBE. However, he has struggled a bit with LHBs since last season (.343 wOBA) and that’s supported by his xwOBA (.341) with just a 43.9 GB%. David Peralta (136 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Eduardo Escobar (134 wRC+, .301 ISO) may be bats worth looking at in this spot.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Jake Arrieta One of the top RH bats vs LHP faces one of the worst LHPs vs RHBs in a great park
Just like their counterparts, the run line for the Mariners is rising, now up to 5.91 in one of the most positive run environments in baseball against a LHP who has allowed RHBs a .378 xwOBA and 37.1 Hard% since last season. Overall, Martin Perez has a .382 xwOBA and 89.6 mph aEV that are both second worst on the board this year. The Mariners only have three RHBs above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year in the lineup tonight, but they stack very nicely two through four. Healthy exposure to Jean Segura (127 wRC+, .142 ISO), Mitch Haniger (119 wRC+, .175 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (155 wRC+, .343 ISO) should pay off for backers tonight. Mike Zunino (96 wRC+, .231 ISO) is the only other RHB in the lineup above a 90 wRC+ or .160 ISO vs LHP over the last 365 days.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, Martin Perez Rising run line and one of the top parks on the board
The run line has been rising for the Texas Rangers this afternoon. Now up to 5.59, very close to the top of the board with only a couple of teams barely above them. Wade LeBlanc has done a nice job for the Mariners this year, but by xwOBA, batters from either side are within six points of a .350 mark against him since last season, despite RHBs having just a .293 wOBA against him over that span. The most positive run environment outside of Coors is a massive park downgrade for him and the Rangers have a team 141 wRC+, 12.4 BB% and 21.2 HR/FB over the last week all top the board. It’s hard to find a poor play in this lineup, at least among the first seven or eight batters. Among those with at least 30 PAs against LHP over the last calendar year, only Rougned Odor (79 wRC+, .179 ISO) is below a 100 wRC+ and he has a 239 wRC+ over the last week. Robinson Chirinos (181 wRC+, .306 ISO) is a nice bat to have in the sixth spot. Adrian Beltre (157 wRC+, .183 ISO) can still do damage against LHP and is the second cheapest bat in the lineup on DK ($4K). As many Texas bats as you can afford is probably the right number to roster tonight.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Wade LeBlanc, Robinson Chirinos