DFS Alerts
Start of Tuesday's HOU-COL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers at Coors Field aren’t typically heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, so the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall appeal, but the delay should still be a positive sign for hitters with minimal postponement risk and with Kevin Roth’s updated forecast looking promising following the initial precautionary weather stoppage.
As reported by: the Colorado Rockies via Twitter
James Paxton scratched Tuesday; Roenis Elias will start in his place
Paxton won’t be activated from the 10-day disabled list as originally planned, and he will coincidentally not make his scheduled start for the Seattle Mariners in Tuesday’s home matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to lower back inflammation. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Roenis Elias, who, like Paxton, is a left-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projected lineup of the Giants hitters in any significant fashion, though Elias is clearly several rungs below Paxton in terms of talent, making the Giant an interesting tournament stack as decreased price tags across the industry. That said, still be sure to double check out the projections in LineupHQ for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for this evening’s main slate.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Roenis Elias Some rain potential in a few important spots
A few important spots tonight may have some rain potential in Kevin’s updated forecast, which is currently available to all players on Weather page. Premium subscribers can get further updates from Kevin himself on Crunch Time, starting at 6:30 ET.
Bryce Harper scratched Tuesday; Michael Taylor replaces
Harper has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Michael Taylor, who will play center field and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Juan Soto up to the three-hole to fill the void left behind by Harper’s unavailability while Daniel Murphy shifts up one batting position to fifth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Nationals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Junior Guerra on the road this evening.
As reported by: Dan Kolko via Twitter Looking to assault a second straight southpaw in a great park
The A’s rolled Cole Hamels last night and they’ll keep the same lineup against another lefty in Texas tonight. Blame the park all you want for Mike Minor’s struggles, but his .365 xwOBA is actually highest on the board among regular starters tonight. Opposite handed batters have a .346 wOBA, 41.8 Hard% and 31.5 GB% against him this year. While Matt Chapman (135 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Mark Canha (136 wRC+, .279 ISO) remain at the bottom of the order despite being two of the top bats in the lineup against LHP over the last calendar year. Chad Pinder (140 wRC+, .189 ISO) is affordable (and even cheap on FD) near the top of the lineup with an expensive Khris Davis (115 wRC+, .260 ISO) in the cleanup spot. A nice spot atop the lineup gives Marcus Semien (91 wRC+, .168 ISO) some value as well in a great park.
Other tagged players: Chad Pinder, Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Mark Canha, Mike Minor Top offense vs LHP at Coors, but this pitcher has been on fire
Facing a southpaw at Coors, one would expect the run line for the Astros to be through the rough, but 5.43 almost seems too low. Tyler Anderson (30.1 K%, 3.26 SIERA, .213 xwOBA over the last 30 days) has been on fire. He’s holding RHBs to just a .292 wOBA this year despite a 38.3 GB% and xwOBA backs that up at just .307. Alex Bregman (177 wRC+, .302 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) costs a ton, but can’t be ignored against a southpaw at Coors. George Springer (131 wRC+, .184 ISO) finally seems to be breaking out of an extended slump (243 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% since the break). Max Stassi (131 wRC+, .229 ISO) does not have an ideal lineup slot, but is affordable at a tough position.
Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson, Max Stassi, George Springer Contact prone pitcher with platoon issues in a terrible park
The Rangers were highly projected last night and didn’t do much, they’re right back at 5.33 implied runs tonight against Frankie Montas, who has struck out just 14.6% of the batters he’s faced and has an ERA a run and a half below his 4.87 SIERA. Left-handed batters, particularly, have torched him for a .353 wOBA and even higher .420 xwOBA behind a 48.2 Hard% and 34.2 GB%. Joey Gallo (115 wRC+, .306 ISO) bats fifth tonight and it feels like his night in this spot. Shin-soo Choo (140 wRC+, .228 ISO) is just a great overall bat in this spot, while Rougned Odor (83 wRC+, .179 ISO) has been streaking and bats second. Adrian Beltre (104 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Ronald Guzman (86 wRC+, .171 ISO) are interesting low cost bats.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Frankie Montas, Adrian Beltre, Ronald Guzman Looking for his ninth in nine games against a pitcher who loves to serve them up
Homer Bailey (15 HRs in 12 starts) hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since May and his mere presence on the mound tonight pushes the Cardinals to the top implied run line on the board (5.46). Obvious is obvious and today his name is Matt Carpenter (149 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He hasn’t homered in two games, but still has eight bombs over his last eight games. He has faced Bailey 40 times in his career without a single HR strangely enough though. Considering everyone in the lineup except for Dexter Fowler (90) is above a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year, players should look to assault Bailey as much as their salary cap will allow. Each of the two through seven hitters are between a .168 and .196 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year as well. Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC+, .171 ISO) is one of the cheapest bats in the lineup out of the cleanup spot.
Other tagged players: Homer Bailey, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna High priced bats face a rookie who has been pretty good so far.
Even on the road, in what should be considered a slight park downgrade, the Red Sox still have a 5.2 implied run line that’s fourth best on the board in Baltimore. Yefry Ramirez has not been that bad though. In fact, he hasn’t been bad at all. After a 24 K% (7.3 BB%) through 14 AAA starts, he’s struck out 24 of his first 97 major league batters with a .283 xwOBA, 86.3 mph aEV and 4.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s not likely to shut down the top half of this Boston offense, but he doesn’t have to do much for less than $6K in an SP2 spot on DraftKings. Against Ramirez through four starts (plus one long relief appearance), RHBs have just a .229 wOBA with a 54.3 GB%. That’s going to regress, but even xwOBA has them at just .262. Mookie Betts (137 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (177 wRC+, .384 ISO) are rarely poor plays, but are extremely expensive where you might be able to find better outfield values tonight. Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .211 ISO) may be the top bat in this spot, as LHBs have a .353 wOBA and 36 GB% against Ramirez so far. There may be some regression going the other way there too though. LHBs have just a .304 xwOBA against Ramirez.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Yefry Ramirez, JD Martinez Choo Fly, Don't Bother Me
I love the two offenses in this game equally. When one projects to be highly owned and the other is expected to fly under the radar, I will gladly give the tiebreaker to the Rangers. They have a knack of breaking my heart in these situations, but what’s another heartbreak when there have already been so many? Frankie Montas is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 46%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Rangers are more than affordable and this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 10.5 runs. Shin-Soo Choo is my favorite hitter of the slate. He owns a .426 xwOBA and a .247 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Great Ballpark for a Pitcher that has Struggled with Home Runs
Pitching is weak at the top tonight, which brings Tanaka into play as a core target in both cash games and tournaments. He’s one of those pitchers that we routinely expect to have a higher ERA than SIERA thanks to a seemingly unsustainable HR/FB rate. Somehow, someway, he has managed to sustain that high HR/FB rate throughout his career. The rest of his numbers are certainly appealing — 24% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and a 45% ground ball rate. He sees a sizable ballpark boost playing in Tampa Bay and draws one of the best matchups of the slate. The Rays’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .306 with a strikeout rate of 20% against right-handed pitching.
Standard five plus implied run line at home for this top heavy lineup
There are a handful of teams who play in positive run environments, who are always going to be a top projected offense at home against all but the best pitchers. Cleveland is one such team and it may be a bit repetitive every day, but the left side of their infield are two of the top players in the game and two of the top hitters at their position. You’ll rarely go wrong rostering Francisco Lindor (136 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .328 ISO) at home, along with Michael Brantley (135 wRC+, .211 ISO) sandwiched in between them, but you’re going to have sacrifice in other spots to afford them. Either Edwin Encarnacion (136 wRC+, .283 ISO) or Yonder Alonso (124 wRC+, .185 ISO) are a bit more reasonably priced. While LHBs have a .374 wOBA some 90 points above RHBs, xwOBA drops that 73 points and pushes RHBs up to .328. The takeaway is that great hitters are likely to do damage in a great hitting environment.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Joe Musgrove Great Price and a Great Matchup
Wheeler projects to be one of the highest owned pitchers of the slate. He has improved this year, posting a 4.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a soft contact rate (25%) that is nearly as high as his hard contact rate. Throughout his career, he has been dominant against right-handed hitters and it looks like he should face four or five of them tonight. It’s not like we should be scared of the lefties in this lineup anyway, as Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer, and Freddy Galvis all have an xwOBA below .320 against right-handed pitching this season. Wheeler seems safe here and he certainly has a high ceiling for a pitcher at this price point.
Second straight Cardinals' pitcher makes their first major league spot in a tough spot
Austin Gomber is the second consecutive Cardinals’ pitcher making his first start, but this is not his MLB debut. He’s made 15 relief appearances this year with a 3.4 K-BB%, 27 GB% and 35.9 Hard%. He has made 11 AAA starts with a 19.6 K-BB%. Vegas is heavily siding with the home team (5.04 implied runs) and projecting the major league version of Gomber will struggle in a power friendly park. Eugenio Suarez (171 wRC+, .261 ISO) has been a destroyer of LHP over the last calendar year. Adam Duvall (112 wRC+, .237 ISO) can still do some damage as well and bumps up a few spots tonight. Gomber, has actually had more issues with LHBs at the major league level (.457 wOBA, .477 xwOBA) and will be facing two of them who handle LHP well at the top of the order in Scooter Gennett (117 wRC+, .124 ISO) and Joey Votto (112 wRC+, .184 ISO). Remember that the Reds were completely shut down by an unknown Cardinals’ pitcher last night though.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Austin Gomber, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto Daily Bullpen Alert: Royals are throwing another bullpen game
The Indians (5.94) and Mets (5.31) are the only two pens above a five FIP over the last month, while the former boasts a 14.7 K-BB% over that span and has recently added top arms, the former has recently traded one with an 8.6 K-BB% and absolutely loves blowing up Zack Wheeler starts. The Royals are sitting on a 4.76 FIP and 4.3 K-BB% over the last month and are going entirely with the bullpen tonight. Burch Smith starts, but has totaled 5.1 innings in his two starts. Both pitchers in Baltimore average fewer than five innings per start with the visiting pen (Boston 3.86 FIP, 17.6 K-BB% last 30 days) being a bit better than the home pen (4.25 FIP, 12.4 K-BB%). Eric Lauer does not go deep into games often. The Padres have a 3.21 FIP and 21.2 K-BB%, but just traded away two of their top relievers. Felix Pena is usually limited and has one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him (4.85 FIP, 11.4 K-BB%). Jeremy Hellickson rarely goes six innings and has an average pen behind him (4.20 FIP, 13.8 K-BB%) in Milwaukee. Both pitchers in Cincinnati (Homer Bailey, Austin Gomber) could need early relief. The Reds have a 4.49 FIP and 10.6 K-BB% over the last month. The Cardinals have a lower 3.91 FIP, but with just an 8.0 K-BB%. The Rays (4.01 FIP, 10.8 K-BB%), of course, will likely be utilizing their bullpen frequently, as they often do.