DFS Alerts
Top afternoon bats include leadoff hitters with power
After Matt Carpenter, two of the top bats on the board are the Cleveland infielders, Jose Ramirez (168 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Francisco Lindor (137 wRC+, .283 ISO) at home against a good pitcher in Jameson Taillon, but LHBs do have a .340 wOBA against him since last season. Joc Pederson (135 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP) gets Jake Arrieta (LHBs .342 wOBA since last season) for just $3K on FanDuel, the same price for Eric Thames (132 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP) against Tanner Roark (LHBs .351 wOBA since 2017). Paul Goldschmidt (192 wRC+, .373 ISO vs LHP) is another top bat at Wrigley, even against Jon Lester (RHBs .326 wOBA since last year).
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Matt Carpenter, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt
No offense eclipses five implied runs on the afternoon slate
With the Cardinals dropping more than a quarter run in the last hour, they still late the eight game afternoon slate with a 4.75 implied run line, but now there is not a single offense projected above five runs on the board. The Cardinals were unable to get much going against Homer Bailey last night and face a pitcher who’s been similarly poor against LHBs since last season (.359 wOBA and xwOBA with a 40 Hard%), Sal Romano has been slightly more competent against RHBs (.324 wOBA, 52.1 GB%). Each of the first six batters in the St Louis order are above a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year, but Matt Carpenter (147 wRC+, .276 ISO) is the only obvious play and one of the top bats on the board. Paul DeJong (119 wRC+, .198 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .180 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year as well. Yadier Molina (117 wRC+, .179 ISO) is a competent bat with a great lineup spot at a reasonable cost for a weak position.
Other tagged players: Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina, Sal Romano Large afternoon slate features several high strikeout pitchers
The afternoon slate for both sites contains eight games, starts at 12:10 ET, and features just one high priced pitcher. Another potentially interesting pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) has just been traded an hour before he was to throw his first pitch. Trevor Bauer (31.3 K%, 3.16 SIERA, .273 xwOBA) costs $3-4K more than any other pitcher and is easily the top pitcher on the board. Prior to striking out exactly seven in each of his last two starts, he’d struck out at least eight in nine straight. He’s also walked at least four in two of his last three starts, lasting only four innings in Texas last time out. This afternoon, he’s facing a contact prone Pittsburgh offense (19.2 K% vs RHP) in a positive run environment. The Pirates also have a league best 180 team wRC+ with a 15.7 K% and 22 HR/FB since the break. The positive is that one of the hottest hitters on the team, Corey Dickerson, is out of the lineup today. Bauer will need double digit strikeouts to cover his price tag. Freddie Peralta actually has a higher strikeout rate (34.5%), while Robbie Ray equals Bauer (31.3%). Peralta has struck out just 14 of 61 batters over his last three starts, utilizing his fastball close to 80% of the time. He’s also managed contact well (.284 xwOBA, 86.7 mph aEV, 3.9% Barrels/BBE) and is the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($9.5K). Ray costs less than $7.5K on either site because his walk (11.7%) and hard contact (90.3 mph aEV, 10.7% Barrels/BBE) rates mandate he strike out a ton of batters just stay in the league. In his last outing, he struck out just two Rockies and allowed the same number of HRs. Both have difficult matchups against the Nationals (11.8 K-BB% vs RHP) and Cubs (12.3 K-BB% vs LHP) in dangerous parks. The Cubs are down Kris Bryant today though, a major bat against LHP. Jack Flaherty (29 K%) has the next highest strikeout rate and has also been a quality contact manager (.286 xwOBA, 85.9 mph aEV), throwing his slider 30% of the time. He’s been held to 75 or fewer pitches in three of his last six starts, but thrown more than 100 in each of the other three, including a nine strikeout performance last time out. He’s in a dangerous park against a competent Reds’ offense (11.4 K-BB% vs RHP), but an ice cold one (41 wRC+ since the break), who were nearly no-hit by pitchers making their first major league start on two consecutive days, which means they’re probably likely to unload on the most talented pitcher of the three. Walker Buehler (25.3 K%) might be interesting in a high upside spot in a dangerous park in Philadelphia (25.8 K% vs RHP) at a price tag of around $8K, but he’s thrown a total of eight innings at every level (MLB, AAA) since the beginning of July. Two low upside pitchers are facing each other in a great park. Clayton Richard (57.5 GB%) has just an 11.1 K% over the last 30 days. Corey Owsalt has struck out two or fewer in three of his four starts, but seven in his other and had a 23.4 K% at AAA this season. Both the Mets and Padres have a 79 wRC+ and 26 K% against the handedness of the pitcher being faced today. Both pitchers have a price range from $5.5K to $7.1K on either site.
Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Freddy Peralta, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Corey Oswalt, Clayton Richard Just Keep Loading Up
The top plays at second base are both in the heat of Texas tonight. I love the A’s Jed Lowrie, but I’ll give a slight edge to Rougned Odor with his 45% hard hit rate over the past month and his ability to steal bases along with his home run power. I am less concerned about strikeouts against Edwin Jackson, and more interested in all the balls he allows to be hit in the air. Odor has been batting 2nd in this lineup recently giving him added run scoring upside and the possibility of picking up an extra at bat as Texas continues to bat around.
Matchup Play #2
David Price has nearly identical numbers to Tyler Skaggs, and I would expect the bulk of the ownership on these two lefties. Everything about his skills are above average but short of great, with 24% strikeouts, 7.4% walks and a 3.91 SIERA. There’s some risk with his fly balls to righties in this ballpark, but that is made up for by the high strikeouts of the Orioles. He is in play on all sites in all formats. I slightly prefer Skaggs, but it’s close.
The Only Good Matchup On The Board
Tyler Skaggs becomes tonight’s top pitcher basically by default. The best pitcher on the slate is in Coors Field, and the other games are all in hitter friendly ballparks. Skaggs is an above average pitcher across the board with 24.8% strkeouts, 7.2% walks and a 3.67 SIERA. He has brought his ground ball rate up to a career high 47.7%, helping to keep power in check. He faces a White Sox team with a high 23.4% projected strikeout rate against lefties and only a couple righties of consequence to threaten him. He has six quality starts in his last seven outings and generally pitches 6-7 solid innings. There’s some upside from the matchup with some safety in the skills and the ballpark. He’s not a can’t-miss, but he’s the best we’ve got tonight.
Always Searching for Power
James Shields has been much better for the White Sox this season, but he remains susceptible to power bats with his high fly ball ways. On a short slate, you need that “two home run” bat that can be the difference-maker, and obviously Mike Trout is capable of being that guy. He might get somewhat over-looked tonight with the focus on Texas and Coors Field, but don’t forget about him. He certainly has the upside to be the difference-maker this evening.
Catch All The Runs
Even though it’s going to be extremely popular, this slate is as simple as loading up A’s and Rangers. Jonathan Lucroy is the least exciting hitter on this Oakland team, but to be able to fill your catcher slot on DK with a hitter in this game at this salary is too good to pass up. Lucroy is likely to see loads of baserunners, and he will put the ball in play.
Nathan Eovaldi scratched Wednesday; Ryne Stanek will start in his place
Eovaldi has officially been to traded to the Boston Red Sox, and he will coincidentally not make his scheduled start for the Tampa Bay Rays in Wednesday’s home matchup against the New York Yankee due to the aforementioned trade. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Ryne Stanek, who, like Eovaldi, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projected lineup of the Yankees hitters in any significant fashion. However, this now becomes a bullpen game for Tampa Bay, and Austin Pruitt appears to be the likeliest candidate to follow Stanek out of the pen in today’s contest. That said, still be sure to double check out the projections in LineupHQ for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for this afternoon’s slate.
As reported by: Ken Rosenthal via Twitter Other tagged players: Ryne Stanek
They Are Facing a Good Pitcher, But It's Coors
The Rockies will almost certainly not have as much traction tonight as the two teams in Texas, and this will be one of the rare spots where we can get them as somewhat of a contrarian GPP stack. Yes. Charlie Morton is very good, but there is a path to a big game from the Rockies. It’s always possible in their home park, and Morton does have command issues at times with a nearly 10% walk rate on the year. Charlie Blackmon is the only hitter I would recommend for cash games, but I love the full GPP stack in the hopes that Morton doesn’t have his top command tonight and is forced from the game early.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra Keep Targeting Offense in the Heat
We have seen about a thousand runs in Texas over the last two nights, and we again have a massive Vegas total of 12 in this game. You can guarantee that ownership will be high on a four game slate, but this is clearly the top spot for offense. Edwin Jackson has posted decent surface numbers this year, but there’s no reason to expect a career resurgence at this stage, and it’s only a matter of time before luck catches up to him. Both LHBs and RHBs have posted a 24%+ line drive rate against Jackson, and there’s a reason Texas has one of highest implied team totals on the board. Stack ‘em up.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Adrian Beltre Is Tonight the Night His Luck Starts to Change?
There’s no doubt that it has been a rough season for Jon Gray. His ERA sits at 5.44. He got demoted to the minor leagues for a while. Things tend to spiral out of control when they start going the wrong way for him. However, the advanced metrics are still very good. His 28.5% strikeout rate puts him among the league’s best. His xFIP sits at 2.84. That’s more than two and a half runs better than his ERA! Gray has simply been woefully unlucky with a .374 BABIP allowed on the year. Now, a home date against Houston is not exactly the spot to bank on positive regression to the mean, but I’ll grab some shares on a short slate with few options.
The Top Arm on a Four Game Slate
There’s not much to choose from when it comes to pitching this evening, as we have just four games, and two of them have Vegas run totals in the double digits. Skaggs will get my nod as the top selection, though a lot of people will likely go to David Price because he’s facing the Orioles. When healthy this year, Skaggs has pitched very well with a 2.68 ERA and a SIERA and xFIP in the threes, and his strikeouts are solidly above league average. While the K’s have dipped a bit in his last few starts, tonight’s matchup against the free-swinging White Sox gives him a great opportunity to get back on track in that department. Despite the elevated price point, I’ll have plenty of GPP exposure to Skaggs this evening.
Everything Lines Up Here
You can’t ask for a much better situation than a lead off hitter in this game with the on base skills and power of Shin-Soo Choo facing Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a below average strikeout pitcher allowing fly balls in bunches and the balls should be flying in the heat again tonight. Choo has a .244 ISO, .414 wOBA and 47% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching this season with a .416 OBP and 17 HR. His FanDuel salary is robbery, and even on DK/FDRFT he is a high priority play.
Can't Pass On This Salary
The game of the night is back in the Texas heat, with both sides being strongly in play on all sites in all formats. The standout value is Adrian Beltre in the middle of the Rangers lineup at a silly low salary across the industry. He is not the best hitter in this game, and there is certainly more power around him, but to get a cleanup hitter who makes contact and hits the ball hard in this environment, is just too much to pass up at this salary.