DFS Alerts
High heat should lead to high run total in Texas tonight
The Rangers might be big underdogs tonight facing Carlos Carrasco, but just like last night, it’s expected to be hot with good hitting conditions in Texas, and the game has a high 10.5 run Vegas run total. People will be looking at the Indians as a highly-owned stack, but there is some merit in taking the other side, particularly the Rangers left-handed hitters. Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage 50 points higher to lefties (.430 vs .380), an on-base percentage almost 60 points higher (.330 vs .272), and has allowed seven home runs to left-handers already this season. Joey Gallo, fresh off two home runs last night, is always a GPP target to consider, Shin-soo Choo has been getting on base every game, and Willie Calhoun is a cheap target to round out the stack if he is back in the starting lineup after getting called up yesterday. With the heat high in Texas, Right-handers can be mixed into a potential stack as well, particularly Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus to round out the infield.
High heat should lead to high run total in Texas tonight
The Rangers might be big underdogs tonight facing Carlos Carrasco, but just like last night, it’s expected to be hot with good hitting conditions in Texas, and the game has a high 10.5 run Vegas run total. People will be looking at the Indians as a highly-owned stack, but there is some merit in taking the other side, particularly the Rangers left-handed hitters. Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage 50 points higher to lefties (.430 vs .380), an on-base percentage almost 60 points higher (.330 vs .272), and has allowed seven home runs to left-handers already this season. Joey Gallo, fresh off two home runs last night, is always a GPP target to consider, Shin-soo Choo has been getting on base every game, and Willie Calhoun is a cheap target to round out the stack if he is back in the starting lineup after getting called up yesterday. With the heat high in Texas, Right-handers can be mixed into a potential stack as well, particularly Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus to round out the infield.
High heat should lead to high run total in Texas tonight
The Rangers might be big underdogs tonight facing Carlos Carrasco, but just like last night, it’s expected to be hot with good hitting conditions in Texas, and the game has a high 10.5 run Vegas run total. People will be looking at the Indians as a highly-owned stack, but there is some merit in taking the other side, particularly the Rangers left-handed hitters. Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage 50 points higher to lefties (.430 vs .380), an on-base percentage almost 60 points higher (.330 vs .272), and has allowed seven home runs to left-handers already this season. Joey Gallo, fresh off two home runs last night, is always a GPP target to consider, Shin-soo Choo has been getting on base every game, and Willie Calhoun is a cheap target to round out the stack if he is back in the starting lineup after getting called up yesterday. With the heat high in Texas, Right-handers can be mixed into a potential stack as well, particularly Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus to round out the infield.
High heat should lead to high run total in Texas tonight
The Rangers might be big underdogs tonight facing Carlos Carrasco, but just like last night, it’s expected to be hot with good hitting conditions in Texas, and the game has a high 10.5 run Vegas run total. People will be looking at the Indians as a highly-owned stack, but there is some merit in taking the other side, particularly the Rangers left-handed hitters. Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage 50 points higher to lefties (.430 vs .380), an on-base percentage almost 60 points higher (.330 vs .272), and has allowed seven home runs to left-handers already this season. Joey Gallo, fresh off two home runs last night, is always a GPP target to consider, Shin-soo Choo has been getting on base every game, and Willie Calhoun is a cheap target to round out the stack if he is back in the starting lineup after getting called up yesterday. With the heat high in Texas, Right-handers can be mixed into a potential stack as well, particularly Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus to round out the infield.
High heat should lead to high run total in Texas tonight
The Rangers might be big underdogs tonight facing Carlos Carrasco, but just like last night, it’s expected to be hot with good hitting conditions in Texas, and the game has a high 10.5 run Vegas run total. People will be looking at the Indians as a highly-owned stack, but there is some merit in taking the other side, particularly the Rangers left-handed hitters. Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage 50 points higher to lefties (.430 vs .380), an on-base percentage almost 60 points higher (.330 vs .272), and has allowed seven home runs to left-handers already this season. Joey Gallo, fresh off two home runs last night, is always a GPP target to consider, Shin-soo Choo has been getting on base every game, and Willie Calhoun is a cheap target to round out the stack if he is back in the starting lineup after getting called up yesterday. With the heat high in Texas, Right-handers can be mixed into a potential stack as well, particularly Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus to round out the infield.
Struggling Lefty
Manny Machado and Francisco Lindor are both extremely strong plays at the shortstop position but Turner is arguably a better pt/$ play as he offers a $900+ savings on DraftKings and a $700+ savings on FanDuel. Turner wasn’t able to take advantage of a favorable stolen base matchup on Friday night but did hit a solo shot and should find himself batting top two in the order again for the Nationals against lefty Sean Newcomb. Newcomb struggled a bit heading into the All-Star Break, throwing just 12 innings in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs. This is a fine matchup for Turner even if he gets the “good” Newcomb but it’s a smash spot for the Nats young SS if he sees the Newcomb that hobbled into the break. He’s an easy cash play for me at his price tag with the higher priced Machado/Lindor mostly being GPP targets.
Impending Doom
As a Brewers fan I am bracing myself for the regression monster to hit the starting rotation. Chase Anderson is the lead candidate as his advanced run prevention metrics (5.28 FIP, 4.84 xFIP, 4.77 SIERA) are much harsher than his 3.78 ERA. Despite a fairly typical batted ball profile, Anderson is the owner of a crazy low .227 BABIP and very fortunate 80.9 LOB%. Add likely impending doom to a starter that already likes to give up the longball (1.63 HR/9; 15.4% HR/FB) and you have a pitcher you want to target – perhaps target aggressively in GPPs. Bellinger should draw a favorable lineup spot on Saturday and has an especially nice price tag on DraftKings ($4,100). His OF eligibility allows you to pair him with Encarnacion on DraftKings and FanDuel’s UTIL spot allows you to roster the duo there as well.
Walk The Parrot
Ben Pritchett and myself had a recurring prediction during our days at Fantasy Insiders – E5 will go yard twice whenever he squares off against a flyball righty. Bartolo Colon loosely qualifies as a flyball righty but he definitely allows a ton of good contact as he has a measly 14% strikeout rate and 15.7 Soft%. Temperatures once again project to be over 100-degrees at the start of game time making an already favorable park shift for the Indians even more so as the ball should be flying out of Arlington. While he may not actually go yard twice, Encarnacion is arguably the strongest first base play on the slate and his price tag is simply too cheap across the industry.
High Ceiling, Solid Floor
Velasquez sticks out as the top SP2 option with a matchup against the Padres who lead the league in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (25.9%) and are tied for second worst wRC+ (81) versus RHP. Vince has quietly had a very nice year – don’t be deceived by his 4.39 ERA or 5-8 W/L record. VV is the owner of a 3.66 SIERA and 27.9 K% – both well above the league average for starters. Velasquez isn’t necessary for roster construction on single starting pitching sites but you could argue he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate to go along with a solid floor so I’m not against rostering him as an SP1 if you’re looking to jam in some higher priced bats.
Been a Minute
It’s been a minute since we’ve been able to roster Kershaw in cash but it appears Saturday’s main slate will allow us the pleasure (hopefully) once again. Kershaw’s main high priced alternative is Justin Verlander who is more expensive (significantly more so on DraftKings) and draws the tougher matchup on the road against a potent Angels offense. While Kershaw gets a negative park shift, he does get a favorable matchup against a Brewers offense that owns the fourth worst wRC+ (82) in the league versus left-handed pitching. While we’re not dealing with “in his prime Kershaw”, Kershaw did encouragingly throw 108 pitches in his last start before the All-Star Break so he has a little bit longer of a leash to work with. Kershaw has yet to show us the strikeout upside we’ve grown accustomed to in years past but his above league average 25.6% strikeout rate still gives him some upside in this spot.
Start of Friday's PIT-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but the Reds have disclosed that they currently plan to provide an update at approximately 7:30 pm local time. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Tyler Mahle and Jameson Taillon not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game carries plenty of postponement risk and players from this contest shouldn’t be considered “safe” for any daily fantasy format, but especially cash games.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon via Twitter
West coast offense at nearly five implied runs in difficult park
The Seattle Mariners have the highest implied run line among west coast offenses at 4.89, which is fourth highest on the entire slate, rare upside for a game in Seattle. The interesting part is that James Shields has is pitching deep into games (fewer than 97 pitches just once in his last 13 starts) and has been missing bats at a league average rate (10 SwStr%). However, his estimators remain in the mid to upper fours with an xwOBA above .350 for the season and over the last month. A .209 BABIP is why LHBs are below a .300 wOBA against him this season, though he’s only allowed a 30.7% hard hit rate against them. RHBs have a .330 wOBA and 36.5 Hard% that’s a bit higher than their ground ball rate against him this year (34.5%). The Seattle lineup has not yet been released, but this does not bode well for a lineup that is expected to feature Nelson Cruz (152 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mitch Haniger (139 wRC+, .236 ISO).
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, James Shields
Updated forecast includes on risky game
Kevin has updated his forecast for Friday night. There is still one area of some concern on the board. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay updated until lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Big acquisition debuts for new team in great spot
The Dodgers get to show off their new toy against a lefty who has allowed a .369 wOBA to RHBs since last season. Wade Miley has walked and struck out nine of the 50 batters he’s faced this season for an overall 0.0 K-BB%. Manny Machado (127 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) makes this a much more dangerous lineup against LHP, especially with the park upgrade in Milwaukee tonight. He does bump Kike Hernandez (122 wRC+, .231 ISO) down to fifth in the order tonight, though at less than $3.5K, he remains a positive value. Chris Taylor (95 wRC+, .198 ISO) leads off at a reasonable price as well with Matt Kemp (125 wRC+, .212 ISO) batting cleanup. Max Muncy (204 wRC+, .351 ISO) has destroyed LHP and bats third, but is very expensive against a pitcher who has held LHBs to a .297 wOBA with a 59 GB% since last year. Statcast is a bit less optimistic on Miley’s performance against same-handed batters, giving him a .345 xwOBA against them.
Other tagged players: Wade Miley, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, Max Muncy All The Upside Without All The Cost
If you’re not spending up to Trevor Bauer tonight, the next highest upside comes from the pitcher with the 12th highest salary on FD. There is nothing safe about Robbie Ray, but his 34.1% strikeout rate is the highest mark on this slate and 4th highest of any starter in baseball. You’ve got to take the good with the bat and stomach the risk from his poor control and hard hit tendencies, but at this salary, the strikeout upside is worth the risk in tournaments. On DK/FDRFT, he is less of a clear value in a loaded mid-tier, but still tops the points per dollar upside list.
