DFS Alerts

The overwhelming chalk gets the top park and a pitcher with a .377 wOBA against RHBs

The Indians are the over-whelming chalk tonight. Not only are they in the best park, but they are facing a southpaw (Martin Perez) who has allowed a .377 wOBA to RHBs over the last year. Not only are they the only offense above five implied runs, but they are well above that mark (5.59). Francisco Lindor (162 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (160 wRC+, .274 ISO) are top overall bats tonight. Edwin Encarnacion (92 wRC+, .189 ISO) is a solid first base bat in a great spot. Brandon Guyer (133 wRC+, .165 ISO) is an affordable outfield bat with a decent lineup spot (fifth). Roberto Perez (160 wRC+, .261 ISO) is a punt catcher.

Struggling pitcher in power friendly park has a -8.0 K-BB% and 49 Hard% in July.

Clayton Richard did complete six innings with just two earned runs in his last start, but has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three straight starts, giving him a -8.0 K-BB% in July. Although he’s sustained a 59.2 GB% over that span, it’s with a 49% hard hit rate. While RHBs do have a 55.5 GB% against him since last year, that comes with a 40 Hard% and .359 wOBA. Philadelphia is a very power friendly park, so anything in the air has a chance to go and Kevin has a light wind blowing out to left tonight. Rhys Hoskins (132 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (126 wRC+, .190 ISO) are the top bats here and, although Richard is not easy to run on, Cesar Hernandez (120 wRC+, .113 ISO) stands a decent shot of reaching base and scoring ahead of the big bats behind him. The Phillies may not receive much attention at just 4.44 implied runs in the middle of the board.

Rising run line against an extremely HR prone pitcher

Dylan Bundy used to be a high upside HR risk. He retains the latter, but has just a 19.6 K% over the last month. He’s totaled five strikeouts and walks each over his last two starts. LHBs are up to a .348 wOBA (.367 xwOBA) with a 38 Hard% and just a 30.8 GB% against him since last year, although the HRs have been fairly evenly distributed. The majority of the power, except for Teoscar Hernandez (125 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), comes from the LH side for the Blue Jays anyway. Curtis Granderson (119 wRC+, .231 ISO) has been struggling, but he’s a cheap boom or bust bat tonight for just $3.7K on DK and over $1K less on FD. Justin Smoak (129 wRC+, .259 ISO) went into a the break a bit hotter, with a 223 wRC+ and four HRs over the last week. The run line for the Blue Jays has been rising this afternoon, up to 4.86 currently, with only a few teams above them.

One of the best pitchers in one of the worst spots

Noah Syndergaard has a 14.5 SwStr%, 3.1% Barrels/BBE and .281 xwOBA are all second best on the board. He misses bats (27.2 K%) and generates weak contact (86.2 mph aEV). All of this has successfully conspired to dip the Yankees below five implied runs at home, something that rarely happens. At 4.78 runs, they still sit behind just three other offenses. Syndergaard struck out just three in his return from the DL, throwing five innings. If players believe he’s still shaking off the rust or that he might be limited again (the Mets haven’t said so), the bullpen is atrocious and well worth targeting. However, Syndergaard has held batters from either side of the plate below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA since last season. There may not be an active pitcher who takes Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) entirely off the board at home. The rest of the lineup all range between a 96 and 123 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with Neil Walker and Brett Gardner the only two below a .190 ISO.

Improving offense against LHP facing one who has allowed six HRs and a 40 Hard% over the last month

Despite 28 teams in action tonight and a lack of high priced pitchers on the board, just once offense eclipses five implied runs tonight. This could be due to a lack of extremely positive run environments in play tonight. While the Red Sox are not that one team, they are the next closest at 4.97 runs. They are not at home and they are facing a LHP, but have improved to a team 99 wRC+ against southpaws this season and have added a potent RHB in Steve Pearce (131 wRC+, .229 ISO vs LHP last calendar year). Matt Boyd has struck out 28 of his last 108 batters faced. He’s also allowed six HRs with a 40% hard hit rate over that span. Since last season, RHBs have a .337 wOBA and 36.2 Hard% against him. This is pretty easy. Mookie Betts (200 wRC+, .354 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (159 wRC+, .296 ISO) are two of the top bats on the board, while Pearce offers some salary relief. Xander Bogaerts (112 wRC+, .144 ISO) can be another high priced option at a difficult position, but he drops down to fifth in the order against lefties now.

Strong BvP numbers against a top pitcher not supported by Statcast.

The Atlanta Braves have just a 3.5 implied run line that’s third lowest on the board facing the returning Stephen Strasburg tonight. While advocating a full out on Strasburg may be ill advised, there’s a chance he shows some rust and Freddie Freeman (132 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has some strong individual numbers against him. In 54 PAs according to Statcast, Freeman has four homers and four doubles against Strasburg. However, in the Statcast era (since 2015), Freeman has just an 85.3 mph aEV and .301 xwOBA in this matchup. Perhaps most of the damage was done earlier in both their careers, but Statcast does not seem to support the overall power numbers Freeman has shown against Strasburg in their more recent meetings.

Daily Bullpen Alert: One of the worst bullpens has now improved

The New York Mets have the worst bullpen in the majors over the last 30 days with a 5.69 FIP and 8.2 K-BB%. Syndergaard is starting tonight, but he is making just his second start off the DL and in a tough spot at Yankee Stadium. The Indians have the second worst bullpen by FIP over the last month (5.21). However, their 15.5 K-BB% over that span is above average, they’re staring the top pitcher on the board tonight and recently added two top bullpen pieces in Hand and Cimber. The Tigers (5.03 FIP, 7.3 K-BB%) and Royals (5.02 FIP, 2.5 K-BB%) are the other two terrible pens over the last month. Matt Body has been getting hammered despite striking out a quarter of batters faced over the last month. He’s failed to complete five innings in three of his last five starts. Danny Duffy has been pitching well and regularly completing six to seven innings in most recent starts. Sam Gaviglio, Robbie Ray, Martin Perez, and Rich Hill have all averaged fewer than five innings per start. Gaviglio may be by design. The Jays have a 4.11 FIP, but 17.7 K-BB% out of the pen over the last month. Ray has a poor bullpen behind him (4.52 FIP, 10.6 K-BB%). The Rangers have the top bullpen FIP in the majors over the last 30 days (2.82) with a 16.1 K-BB%, but Perez has one of the toughest matchups (Indians) in the worst park (Texas). Hill is generally limited in his pitch count, having exceeded 100 just once this year despite seven innings in his most recent start. The Dodger pen has a 4.40 FIP over the last month, but with a 19.5 K-BB% that’‘s third best.

Mid priced pitchers offer some upside on Friday

Paying all the way up for Trevor Bauer or utilizing other risky high priced arms may not be your preference tonight. That’s okay because there are some potential values on this board at lower costs. Danny Duffy has gone at least six innings in seven straight starts (seven innings twice) and, although he’s allowed six earned runs twice in that span, he’s allowed a total of one run over the other five starts, striking out at least seven five times as well. His season strikeout rate is now up over 20% and 24.5% over the last month. The beatings have come at the hands of the Astros and Indians, while the Twins are not the same caliber (90 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs LHP). He costs just $6.6K on DK ($7.5K on FD). German Marquez has a similar home/road xFIP around four for his career, but a HR/FB that drops from 20% to 13.3% on the road, which has allowed him to maintain a 3.90 ERA and 4.13 FIP away from Coors in his career. He’s allowed four total runs over his last 20 innings (22 strikeouts) including a strong start against these Diamondbacks at home last time out. Now, he gets a park upgrade in the rematch against a team that is probably a bit better than their 81 wRC+ when healthy, but the 24.4 K% might stick. Marquez costs less than $7.5K on either site. Jameson Taillon threw no sliders through May 5th. He threw a few over the next three starts. They’ve comprised a quarter of his pitches since then. His usage of the pitch (24.4%) nearly matches his strikeout rate (24.6%) over that span. By Statcast measures, it has the second highest whiff rate (29.9%) among all his pitches. His ground ball rate is up to 51.7% over this nine start span as well. The matchup is not ideal. The Reds are a difficult offense (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in a dangerous park, but his ability to miss bats and generate ground balls should serve him well here. He now has upside well beyond his $7.5K price tag. Some quicker hits: Nathan Eovaldi has been successful when elevating his fastball for the Rays, but has been a disaster when he’s had trouble locating it (like his last start). He’s a boom or bust arm in a nice spot against the Marlins. Dallas Keuchel is not missing bats (17 K%) and is facing a predominantly RH Angels’ lineup. However, he’s been dominating contact in July (59 GB% and -11.3 Hard-Soft%), while the Angels have just an 89 wRC+ and 11.8 HR/FB vs LHP. Anibal Sanchez has a 26.1 K% over the last month and has excelled since increasing his cutter usage. He has the lowest aEV on the board (84.2 mph) by a decent margin. Robbie Ray has the highest strikeout rate on the board (34.1 K%) and costs less than $9K (just $7.6K on FD). However, he needs to strike out one-third of batters just to be competent sometimes with his 12.6 BB% and board high 90.3 mph aEV (10.7% Barrels/BBE).

Just one extremely high end pitcher tonight, another one may be under-priced in a tough spot

Stephen Strasburg is fresh off the DL, most recently facing 24 high A batters (striking out seven). He faces the Braves with their 20.6 K% vs RHP at a cost of $10K or slightly above on either site. Aside from him, no other pitcher on the board is within $4K of Trevor Bauer on DraftKings ($2.4K on FanDuel). Bauer has a 35.8 K% over his last nine starts and while his 3.08 SIERA for the season is a bit higher than his ERA, it’s also best on the board, along with his .273 xwOBA. He is the top pitcher on the board if players have the salary space to pay up. While he’s pitching in the worst park on the board tonight (Texas), the Rangers have a 25.3 K% vs RHP, which is the third highest split on the board. Additional pitchers above $9K on both sites include Noah Syndgergaard and Tyler Skaggs, both in some really difficult spots. Even at Yankee Stadium though (123 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB at home, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP), Syndergaard may be under-priced. His 14.5 SwStr%, 3.1% Barrels/BBE and .281 xwOBA are all second best on the board. Skaggs has a 26.1 K% on the season with an xwOBA just above .300 (.301) due to an 89 mph aEV that’s one of the higher marks on the board. The Astros have a 121 wRC+ and 20 K% both on the road and vs LHP. Skaggs has turned himself into a fine pitcher, but he does not possess the upside of Syndergaard.

Top Offense to Target Tonight

The Indians are the top stack of the slate. They are playing on the road (guaranteed ninth inning at-bats) and they see a ballpark boost playing in Globe Life Park. Add in the best matchup on the schedule and we should see some fireworks. Listen to these numbers for Martin Perez when facing a right-handed hitter — he has allowed a .435 xwOBA and a 47% hard contact rate with a strikeout rate of only 11%. Jose Ramirez has mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .373 xwOBA and a .216 ISO this season.

Batted Ball Profile

The Phillies are one of the sneakier offenses to target tonight. Clayton Richard was in awful form leading up to the All-Star break. On the season, he has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The best way to attack Richard is with righties that have high fly-ball rates. This sets up perfectly for Rhys Hoskins, who has a .521 wOBA against the sinker this season (Richard’s main pitch).

Good Value for this SP2

Gaviglio isn’t a pitcher that I regularly have confidence in, but it’s hard not to like him tonight against the Orioles. They have struggled against right-handed pitching all season and just traded away their best player in Manny Machado. Gaviglio will get to face a right-handed heavy lineup, which bodes well for his upside. On the season, he has held righties to a .309 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate and a 56% ground ball rate. He’s a decent favorite and he’s pitching at home where he has average 15 fantasy points (DK scoring) per start this season.

Top Pitching Option of the Slate

I didn’t think I’d be typing these words this season in a slate that features Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg, but Bauer is the top pitching option of the slate. The other two will likely be on pitch counts and quite frankly, Bauer has been just as good as the other two have this season. In 20 starts, he has a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. His velocity is up and he has a career-high swinging strike rate of 13.2%. Targeting a pitcher in this ballpark makes me think twice, but the Rangers’ projected lineup has a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Lefty Masher (Meh)

Due to his positional eligibility + price tag, Plouffe is more of a target on FanDuel than DraftKings. On FD, Plouffe is the min price ($2,000) and he owns C-OF eligibility whereas on DK he is $3,600 and owns OF eligibility. For his career, Plouffe has been known as a “lefty masher” when in reality he’s just been slightly above average versus LHP (115 wRC+, .181 ISO) – to be fair, those numbers are significantly better than his numbers against RHP (86 wRC+, .162 ISO).

Even on FD where he’s min priced I’m really only interested in Plouffe if he draws a top five lineup spot in the order. If not, it’s best to look elsewhere on a slate where hitting value isn’t super important if you decide to throw Robbie Ray as your SP1.

Eat That Chalk

What even is this Seager price tag on DraftKings? If you’re not paying an exorbitant amount of money to roster Jose Ramirez at the third base position, Seager is the next guy in line. I had some hope that a West Coast start time combined with a recently respectable James Shields would lead to potential decreased ownership on Seager but that seems unlikely. Still, I think you just eat the chalk here with Seager in cash games and perhaps differentiate at the position in GPPs.