DFS Alerts
Saturday's ATL-WAS game has been postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals on Saturday night has been postponed due to anticipated inclement weather throughout the evening. The teams have yet to officially announce when today’s previously scheduled game will be made up, but the Nationals did disclose that information regarding the date and time will be released once more information comes available, making it unlikely the teams are aiming to play a doubleheader as part of Sunday’s series finale. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Saturday’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Washington Nationals via Twitter
Value Alert!
Dylan Covey pitched well in his first few starts of the season, but I kept beating the drum about how it was a mirage. It turns out… that it was a mirage. He has now given up at least four runs in five straight starts, and he has an 11.70 ERA in those outings. Look out, baseballs. His ground ball rate is the only thing capable of keeping him afloat, and even that is drifting these days. His walk rate is up over 10%, he doesn’t miss many bats, and the Mariners have enough thump to make him pay. They will certainly put the ball in play, as they have the sixth lowest strikeout rate as a team against RHP, and I love them as a GPP stack. Lefties have better numbers against Covey, but Seattle doesn’t offer much for lefty thump. You can certainly target Denard Span or Dee Gordon as part of your stack, but there’s limited upside there as a one-off. Kyle Seager isn’t having his finest years, but I will gladly take a middle-of-the-order lefty at a mega cheap price tag against Covey. This is a great spot for Seager to get on track, and he is one of my favorite plays of the night on a point per dollar basis.
An Over-Looked Mid-Range Play
Yonder Alonso is the one Cleveland bat that might get over-looked to some degree, but I like him as a mid-range play this evening. I originally had Carlos Santana here, but the weather has caused an early pivot. Alonso is more cost controlled than some of the other bit Cleveland sticks, and his numbers are just fine against RHP with a .343 wOBA on the season. He’s certainly capable of going yard against the fly ball machine in Colon. Don’t sleep on him this evening.
Finding Some Power Against Big Bart
This is the most obvious spot of the night. By the time rosters lock this evening, we might see the Indians with an implied team total north of six runs. That’s rare to see in any game that doesn’t involve Coors Field, but it’s certainly justified here with the Indians playing in arguably the second-best hitting environment in Texas and facing off against a pitcher in decline in Bartolo Colon. This is a scary lineup from top to bottom that owns a ton of power potential, and you need to get at least some exposure to these bats in cash games and if you are multi-entering in GPP formats. Where you opt to go first depends on your salary needs, but Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are my top hitters from a gross fantasy points perspective. Ramirez owns ridiculous splits against RHP with a .447 wOBA and .370 ISO this season, and it’s certainly easy to see him going yard against Bartolo Colon. However, I do like the value that Kyle Seager offers at third base, which presents a problem when it comes to rostering Ramirez. As such, I’m likely going to end up with more exposure to Brantley and Lindor from this Cleveland squad tonight, as they have elite splits against RHP in their own right.
The Top Dog on the Saturday Bump
The most important spot that I want to figure out this evening is what to do with Clayton Kershaw. He hasn’t had much success by his standards in 2018, but a lot of that was due to various lingering injuries. Despite the up and down year, he still has a SIERA and xFIP in the low threes and a 26% strikeout rate that is above league average. That goes to show just how high our expectations are for him because of his career data. We have also seen some signs of life from Kershaw in his last two starts, and he logged eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings in his last outing. I like his upside against the Brewers tonight. While Milwaukee certainly has hitters that are fully capable against left-handed pitching, the team is in a funk right now with seven straight losses, so Kershaw is catching them at a good time. With Verlander having the aforementioned tough matchup against the Angels and the higher DFS price tag tonight, I am likely to side with Kershaw as my top dog.
In Play as a Value SP #2 Choice
I was all set to go all in on Vincent Velasquez as my second core pitcher tonight, but the weather looks like it is going to ruin the fun in both Philadelphia and Washington DC tonight, so we are limited with SP #2 options. Somewhat reluctantly, I will opt for Lance Lynn here. He’s cheaper than all the other options and has a reasonable floor against a Royals team that doesn’t offer much in the way of left-handed thump, which is what always gets Lynn in trouble. There might not be a ton of strikeout upside here, but Lynn makes some sense on this slate, and he should open up some salary to spend up with some of your bats.
A Massive Favorite SP2 at a Good Value
The largest favorite on the board tonight isn’t Verlander or Kershaw, but rather Felix Hernandez pitching in his home park against the lowly White Sox. Granted, that is much more a testament to both the White Sox lack of hitting (Wade Leblanc struck out 10 last night) and the excellent matchup the Mariners bats have against Dylan Covey than it is based on Hernandez’s skill set, but he still shapes up to be a nice SP2 value on a slate where you are going to want to spend up on some bats. Hernandez has gone at least 5 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts, and his strike out floor is higher than usual as the White Sox possess the second-highest team K% on the slate. If you are looking for an affordable SP2 who provides a relatively safe floor and is likely to pick up the W, you could do a lot worse than King Felix tonight at the pitcher friendly Safeco Field.
Potential Cleanup Hitter In Power Ballpark
My hope is Elias Diaz draws a start in the cleanup spot against Anthony DeSclafani in Great American Ballpark. Diaz is affordable and DeSclafani has been horrible this season. Through 44 innings, DeSclafani has already allowed 12 home runs. While most of the power he’s allowed has been to left-handed batters (8 of his 12 home runs have been by lefties), he’s still allowing a .289 average and .774 OPS to righties. This Pirates/Reds game has some sneaky upside.
Right Back to the Well
The Indians were one of the most popular stacks last night and for good reason, ultimately scoring 9 runs in a victory over the Rangers. There is no reason not to go right back to them today against a hapless Bartolo Colon, who has both the lowest K% and SS% on the slate at 14.0% and 5.6%, respectively. Colon also doesn’t walk many batters, which means the ball will be in play and in play often in the hitter friendly confines of Globe Life park, boosted even more by 100+ degree temperatures at game time. Colon struggles against both sides of the plate equally, so all of the top targets from a dangerous Indians lineup are in play.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion Power and Speed In Play for Seattle Tonight
So far in his career, Dylan Covey is known for the fantasy-friendly 26 HRs allowed in 125.1 innings pitched, but he has actually been a boost to speedsters as well, giving up 14 SBs in his career. The top of the Seattle lineup should benefit tonight, and Vegas has given the Mariners better than 2-1 odds and a projected run total over 5.0 runs. Nelson Cruz (15 HRs in 244 ABs against righties this season) and Mitch Haniger (16 HRs in 288 ABs against righties) should bring the power, while Dee Gordon and his 22 SBs will bring the speed against Covey and the White Sox tonight.
Power and Speed In Play for Seattle Tonight
So far in his career, Dylan Covey is known for the fantasy-friendly 26 HRs allowed in 125.1 innings pitched, but he has actually been a boost to speedsters as well, giving up 14 SBs in his career. The top of the Seattle lineup should benefit tonight, and Vegas has given the Mariners better than 2-1 odds and a projected run total over 5.0 runs. Nelson Cruz (15 HRs in 244 ABs against righties this season) and Mitch Haniger (16 HRs in 288 ABs against righties) should bring the power, while Dee Gordon and his 22 SBs will bring the speed against Covey and the White Sox tonight.
Power and Speed In Play for Seattle Tonight
So far in his career, Dylan Covey is known for the fantasy-friendly 26 HRs allowed in 125.1 innings pitched, but he has actually been a boost to speedsters as well, giving up 14 SBs in his career. The top of the Seattle lineup should benefit tonight, and Vegas has given the Mariners better than 2-1 odds and a projected run total over 5.0 runs. Nelson Cruz (15 HRs in 244 ABs against righties this season) and Mitch Haniger (16 HRs in 288 ABs against righties) should bring the power, while Dee Gordon and his 22 SBs will bring the speed against Covey and the White Sox tonight.
Targeting Right-Handers with Platoon Advantage in Arizona Tonight
Like most left-handed pitchers, Kyle Freeland has a tougher time with right-handed hitters, allowing a higher on-base percentage (.340) and slugging percentage (.423) to righties in his career. That could lead to trouble against an Arizona team with a handful of right-handed hitters that hammer left-handed pitching. Paul Goldschmidt is the name that immediately comes to mind, with a .631 slugging percentage and 1.054 OPS against lefties this season, and AJ Pollock isn’t too far behind with a .619 slugging percentage and .962 OPS against southpaws. For some cost savings, Steven Souza is having a rough season so far with only a .296 slugging percentage, but has still hit lefties well this season with a .823 OPS in limited action.
Targeting Right-Handers with Platoon Advantage in Arizona Tonight
Like most left-handed pitchers, Kyle Freeland has a tougher time with right-handed hitters, allowing a higher on-base percentage (.340) and slugging percentage (.423) to righties in his career. That could lead to trouble against an Arizona team with a handful of right-handed hitters that hammer left-handed pitching. Paul Goldschmidt is the name that immediately comes to mind, with a .631 slugging percentage and 1.054 OPS against lefties this season, and AJ Pollock isn’t too far behind with a .619 slugging percentage and .962 OPS against southpaws. For some cost savings, Steven Souza is having a rough season so far with only a .296 slugging percentage, but has still hit lefties well this season with a .823 OPS in limited action.
Targeting Right-Handers with Platoon Advantage in Arizona Tonight
Like most left-handed pitchers, Kyle Freeland has a tougher time with right-handed hitters, allowing a higher on-base percentage (.340) and slugging percentage (.423) to righties in his career. That could lead to trouble against an Arizona team with a handful of right-handed hitters that hammer left-handed pitching. Paul Goldschmidt is the name that immediately comes to mind, with a .631 slugging percentage and 1.054 OPS against lefties this season, and AJ Pollock isn’t too far behind with a .619 slugging percentage and .962 OPS against southpaws. For some cost savings, Steven Souza is having a rough season so far with only a .296 slugging percentage, but has still hit lefties well this season with a .823 OPS in limited action.