DFS Alerts
Don't give up on Andrew Cashner just yet
Andrew Cashner is that pitcher who it always looks so good going in against him and then daily fantasy players are left wondering what the heck happened. He has just a 6.9 SwStr%, 4.92 SIERA and .372 xwOBA, but somehow has completed six innings in five of six starts with no more than three runs in any of them. Last year, he did this by limiting hard contact. This year, he has an 88.9 mph aEV and has allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE. The Yankees have a 5.84 implied run line that’s second best on the board and hopefully everyone else will be tired of stacking against Cashner without results because this recent run of good luck seems just that. He has an 81.7 LOB% over his last six starts. Batters from either side are just a couple of points below a .350 xwOBA against him since last season. The Yankees are down a few bats, but the top half of this order can still mash. Brett Gardner (117 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Aaron Judge (167 wRC+, .333 ISO), Aaron Hicks (110 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (128 wRC+, .285 ISO) are all above a 150 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner, Andrew Cashner
Stock seems to be rising on one of tonight's debuting arms
Enyel de los Santos has a 45+ Future Value grade attached to his Fangraphs player page, but without any other prospect rank or information about the 22 year-old for this season. What we can find throughout his minor league career is consistency. He had a 14.6 K-BB% in 52.2 innings in A ball for the Padres in 2016 before moving up to high A. In 150 AA innings last year, he had a 14.6 K-BB%. In 95.1 AAA innings for the Phillies this year, he has a…wait for it…14.6 K-BB%. That’s a bit better than league average and even if he drops a bit at the major league level, that’s fine. He’s in a great spot in a great park tonight. The Mets have just put out a lineup absent Michael Conforto, but including Jose Reyes (81 wRC+, .117 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) batting sixth. He could have some trouble with the top half of order which includes Brandon Nimmo (150 wRC+, .247 ISO), Asdrubal Cabrera (116 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Wilmer Flores (127 wRC+, .254 ISO), but the Mets 4.42 implied run line seems a bit optimistic at this point. De los Santos costs just $5.5K on FanDuel, but is $2K more on DraftKings, where he still may be an option.
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores Affordable mini-stack against pitcher with platoon issues
Julio Teheran has struck out double digit batters in two of his four starts since returning from the DL, but has also allowed 12 runs in two of his starts. He’s allowed more than three runs seven times in a season where he has an 11.6 BB% and has always struggled against LHBs (.342 wOBA since last season). The Blue Jays lose their DH, but offer an affordable mini-stack at the top of the order with Curtis Granderson (125 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yangervis Solarte (99 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Justin Smoak (121 wRC+, .242 ISO). At just 4.05 implied runs, this lineup should go overlooked by most players and will not be an obstacle to rostering either Verlander or Bauer should you chose to do so.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak, Julio Teheran This well projected offense could fly under the radar tonight
The Twins aren’t a top offense and the park in Minnesota may be deceptively run positive, which could run them under the radar tonight despite a 5.26 implied run line that’s fifth on the board. Should they be able to able to handle Ian Kennedy, who has five games with multiple HRs allowed this season, they’ll get into a bullpen with just a 0.3 K-BB% over the last month. Batters from either side of the plate have hit Kennedy well (above a .340 wOBA and .360 xwOBA since last year) with left-handed batters owning a 45 Hard% and 30.3 GB%. Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .298 ISO) is one of the top bats in the league against RHP over the last calendar year. Brian Dozier (115 wRC+, .216 ISO), Logan Morrison (98 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (136 wRC+, .299 ISO) each have two career HRs against Kennedy. Joe Mauer (103 wRC+, .388 xwOBA, .096 ISO) is one of the cheapest bats in the lineup in the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Ian Kennedy, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison Top implied run line on the board is now above six and it's not Coors
At home, against Yovani Gallardo (15.5 K%, 4.97 SIERA, .359 xwOBA), the Red Sox own a board topping 6.15 implied run line, a total that has been rising this afternoon. Batters from either side of the plate have handled Gallardo well since last season (between a .346 and .362 wOBA and xwOBA). Further bad news for him is that Mookie Betts (133 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (136 wRC+, .200 ISO), J.D. Martinez (183 wRC+, .391 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (105 wRC+, .188 ISO) all exceed a 200 wRC+ and 45% hard hit rate over the last week. Mitch Moreland (112 wRC+, .229 ISO) is the other potent bat in this lineup. Paying up for Boston bats may be viable if passing on high priced arms tonight, virtually impossible as a group if not.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Yovani Gallardo Good BvP in a Home Run-Friendly Matchup
The current roster of the Twins has faced Ian Kennedy 148 times. They have ten home runs against him. In total, they have a .438 wOBA and an ISO above .300. So, not only do they have a great matchup on paper, but they have a good track record against Kennedy as well. This sets up as a great opportunity to stack the Twins and much like the Rangers, they are considerably cheaper than some of the other stacks that we are looking to target. Logan Morrison is 7-for-17 with five extra-base hits against Kennedy in his career.
Surprising BvP Numbers
The Rockies have hit Patrick Corbin well in the past and get to face him at home tonight. While he does have an elite strikeout rate, that has tailed off in his last couple of starts. On the season, he has allowed a 43%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, and Chris Iannetta all boast a .345+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season. In terms of BvP, LeMahieu seems to love this matchup. He is 15-for-40 with four home runs and three triples against Corbin in his career.
The Wait is Over
I’ve been patiently waiting and waiting to fire up Teheran as a core play. Ladies and gentleman, it’s finally time. In order for him to warrant consideration in DFS, he has to be facing a right-handed heavy offense, preferably one that strikes out at a high rate. On the season, he has held righties to a .321 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate. The Blue Jays have no choice but to roll out a right-handed heavy lineup, especially since they can’t use the DH in this series (they can only play one of their first baseman). Toronto’s projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 22% and that doesn’t include the numbers for Marcus Stroman, who has yet to take an at-bat this season.
Elite Stuff at a Discounted Price Point
Richards is always a DFS favorite because we all know the talent is there. I am always a sucker for a pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. His control hasn’t been as sharp this season, but he looked good in his first start back from injury. He struck out eight batters against this same Mariners’ team and now he gets to face them at home. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, Richards has a good track record in this ballpark and a good track record against the Mariners. At this price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll load up on Richards.
A top performing offense against a weak pitcher in a great park has several teams projected above them tonight
Despite facing Sal Romano (17.3 K%, 4.72 SIERA, .359 xwOBA) in one of the more positive run environments in baseball, the Indians are just sixth on a full board at 5.14 implied runs. The big three at the top of the order are a given on most days, especially at home. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year with the infielders both above a .270 ISO. Players have a choice at first base between Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .285 ISO) and the cheaper Yonder Alonso (119 wRC+, .181 ISO) and even Jason Kipnis (82 wRC+, .159 ISO) is showing signs of life recently (283 wRC+, 55.6 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Sal Romano, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis Daily Bullpen Alert: Lots of bullpen action expected on a full slate
The Mets (5.91), Angels (5.62) and Royals (5.15) are the only three bullpens above a five FIP over the last month with the Mets (8.5%) and Royals (0.3%) below a 10% K-BB rate. The Mets are starting a 28 year-old rookie making his major league debut after a double header yesterday. This is an ideal spot to attack, though Drew Gagnon had a 17.2 K-BB% in 17 AAA starts. The Royals have nearly walked more batters than they’ve struck out over the last month and there’s always the chance Ian Kennedy could get roughed up. The Phillies have a 22 year-old making his major league debut after yesterday’s double header. The pen has a 4.03 FIP, but 17.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka are both recently back from the DL. They have two of the four pens below a three FIP over the last month behind them, the Yankees with a 23.4 K-BB%. The Giants at just 15.7%, which is still above league average. Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Eric Lauer and Garrett Richards are your pitchers averaging less than five innings per start. The Angels were covered as one of the worst pens in baseball recently, but with a league average 14.2 K-BB%.The Nationals (4.69 FIP, 13.2 K-BB%) have been the worst of the three remaining bullpens, the Padres have been the best (3.52 FIP, 22 K-BB%) with the Dodgers somewhere in the middle (4.17 FIP, 16.4 K-BB%). The Red Sox (3.58 FIP, 15 K-BB%) and Rays (3.68 FIP, 11.1 K-BB%) are going entirely with bullpens tonight. Dylan Covey is averaging exactly five innings and has been lit up in recent starts. The White Sox have a 3.62 FIP behind him, but with just an 11.9 K-BB%.
There may be some value in contact managers in high upside spots
Not of fan of paying an exorbitant price for pitching tonight? Ground ballers and contact managers comprise many of the other options. Garrett Richards (27.7 K%) has the highest strikeout rate of the non-$10K pitchers and the only one even above 25% otherwise. He’s not in an ideal spot against a Seattle offense with a 106 wRC+ and 20.2 K% vs RHP, but he’s had success against them this year (four ERs in 14 innings, striking out 18 of 53 batters) costs around $8.5K. Miles Mikolas misses $10K by $100 on DraftKings and has just a 13.4 K% over the last month, but has failed to complete six innings just three times this year and his 85.5 mph aEV is best on the board for those with more than six starts. He’s in a great spot to increase his strikeouts against the White Sox (19.3 K-BB% at home, 19 K-BB% vs RHP). Joe Musgrove offers an average strikeout rate (20.3%) with only two pitchers with more than six starts beating his .295 xwOBA or 86.5 mph aEV. He costs $7.5K against the Nationals. Jeremy Hellickson was blasted by the Marlins last time out, but has been essentially league average (3.93 SIERA) even with that start, which may have been the product of illness, announced prior to that start. He now costs just $6K on FanDuel against the Pirates. Mike Leake and Marcus Stroman allow a lot of hard contact and both struggled last time out, but Leake has been regularly pitching deep into games with improvements in contact management recently, while Stroman did look better in his first two starts off the DL. When right, he’ll offer an elite ground ball rate with league average strikeouts for less than $7K. Leake costs just $5.9K on DraftKings. Jose Quintana hasn’t been pitching well (six HRs, 12 walks and just 17 strikeouts last four starts), but is in a nice spot in San Francisco for $7.2K on FanDuel. Rich Hill can’t support his 24.4 K% with a 7.8 SwStr% and has only been above 8.2% once since his first start, but he gets the Padres tonight (16.9 K-BB% vs LHP) and has just an 86.6 mph aEV.
Other tagged players: Garrett Richards, Miles Mikolas, Rich Hill, Marcus Stroman, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Leake Tonight's top pitchers may be difficult to pay up for
Three pitchers exceed $10K on either site. All three sit between a 31 and 32 K% with Justin Verlander and Trevor Bauer around the $12K mark on either site, above $13K on DraftKings. Each is facing a difficult lineup. Verlander hosts the A’s (118 wRC+, 15.8 HR/FB on the road, 109 wRC+ vs RHP) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Bauer hosts the Reds (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in one of the most positive. Advantage Verlander, who leads the board by nearly 30 points with a .243 xwOBA. Bauer is second at .272, but best over the last month (.223). Either would need to dominate to return decent value. The significant park advantage likely gives Verlander the edge and he’s actually the slightly cheaper of the two, but players could not be blamed if they were unwilling to pay this much for other pitcher. Patrick Corbin is $10.4K on DraftKings, but just $8.8K on FanDuel. He’s a matchup casualty tonight though, pitching at Coors. The Rockies are a bit better against LHP (17 HR/FB) than RHP.
Other tagged players: Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin Fillers
While I’m not looking at the Braves as a primary stack I do like the idea of using Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies as lineup fillers. Marcus Stroman has been getting hit HARD this year. Of all pitchers with at least 150+ batted ball events, Stroman owns the second highest average exit velocity (91.2 mph) and allows a hard hit ball (95+ mph) on 48.3% of batted balls (via Baseball Savant) – the second highest rate in the league. Both guys are expensive but should see single digit ownership despite possessing one of the highest ceilings at their respective positions.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman
Ownership Discount
Good starting pitchers in Coors typically provide you with the opportunity to stack an offense in an otherwise favorable contextual spot. Patrick Corbin has been real good this year (2.89 SIERA) but despite a slate best 14.5 SwStr% he has a slate worst (outside of Slegers’ 11.1 IP) hard hit rate (44.3%). Additionally, Corbin depends a ton on his slider to be effective – he throws the slider 38.9% of the time and his sinker 29.6% of the time. While not extreme, both pitches do depend on some vertical movement which typically doesn’t translate while at Coors due to the elevation. While I would actually be ok rostering Corbin in GPPs as well, I do think the ownership discount you can get on Rockies hitters is worth exploring in a few of your lineups.
Other tagged players: Chris Iannetta, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado