DFS Alerts
The Top Upside on the Mound
Chris Sale matches up well with the Rangers, and he is my top choice on the mound tonight. There is nothing to pick apart in his profile, with his elite 37% strikeout rate and mid-twos SIERA and xFIP, and he obviously brings 12+ strikeout potential to the mound every time he pitches. There are a lot of free swingers in this Rangers lineup, and they aren’t much better than middle of the pack in any offensive categories against LHP. If you have the salary to pay up for a pitcher tonight, I’ll give Sale the slight edge over Jacob deGrom.
Too Good
Pitching is loaded tonight, and there is a lot of upside in the second tier. But, Chris Sale is just on a different level than all these other guys, even the second ace, Jacob deGrom. Sale leads the league with a 36.8% strikeout rate, up to a silly 45.2% over the past month. It’s not just the strikeouts, he also has outstanding control with just 6.3% walks and the third lowest hard hit rate in the league at 27.4%. He has 11 or more strikeouts in four straight games and has a high floor and limitless ceiling thanks to his strikeout ability. He’s expensive, but worth it.
Still Too Cheap On FanDuel
Yonder Alonso let us down in a great spot yesterday, but I’m going right back to the well tonight. Tyler Mahle has been awful against left-handed hitters this season, so I think Cleveland is one of the best stacks on the slate. Mahle has a .396 wOBA with a .278 ISO and a 46.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. He also has a 24% strikeout rate with a 15.2% walk rate. The strikeout stuff is there, but with the amount of power and hard hits he allows, it’s hard not to like Cleveland here. In particular, Alonso has a .189 ISO with a .456 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Bottom Of This Order
As of right now we don’t have a pitch count limit announced for Velasquez tonight. He’s an excellent tournament option if he’s going to get 90+ pitches. Velasquez has struggled with lefties this season and last, but he still has a 26.2% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. He also has allowed just a .283 wOBA with a .120 ISO to go with a 29.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The projected starters for the Mets are a little left-handed heavy, but Nimmo and Cabrera are the only two hitters with an ISO over .200 against righties this season. The bottom of this order is awful, and that’s where the Velasquez upside comes in. He’s not safe in this spot, but I think he’s worth the risk in tournaments.
Going Back To The Well
If you look at Marco Gonzales’ player card on RotoGrinders, I talked about him last week in this spot. I love his ability to mix up his pitches, and I expect him to keep the Angels off balance tonight again. Gonzales has a .309 wOBA with a .136 ISO and a 22.5% strikeout rate with a 5.5% walk rate against right-handed hitters. Marte and Trout are the only two projected starters that have hit left-handed pitching well this season. All in all, the projected starters have a .136 ISO with a .295 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The problem is they don’t strike out a lot, but as a SP2 option, I think Gonzales is a solid option at his DraftKings and FantasyDraft prices.
Great In A Small Sample Size
It was a small sample size, but Tyler Saladino was crushing the ball before going to the DL earlier this season, as he had a .326 ISO with a .476 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching in 46 PAs. While Straily’s wOBA is lower to right-handed hitters, he still has a .204 ISO with a very low 16.7% strikeout rate. He’s also giving up 45.2% hard hits to righties this season. It’s a low owned value option on an 11-game slate, and I don’t expect a lot of people to be on him.
Top Value Option For Me
We don’t have a ton of value options tonight, but it’s really hard to overlook Marcell Ozuna as the top value option on the slate. He’s struggled a little against lefties this season, but the hard contact is still there. He has a 48.3% hard-hit rate with a 91mph average exit velocity against left-handed pitching. The problem is his 51.7% groundball rate against lefties. That’s where Rodon comes in with his 54.8% fly ball rate against right-handed hitters this season. Rodon also has a .326 wOBA with a .183 ISO against righties this season. He also has a very low strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.
Tommy Pham scratched Tuesday; Yairo Munoz replaces
Pham has been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Yairo Munoz, who will play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Paul DeJong all the way up to the two-hole to fill the void left behind by Pham’s unavailability. However, the remainder of the Cardinals lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Dylan Covey on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jim Hayes via Twitter
Start of Tuesday's WAS-PIT game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall appeal, but the delay should still be a positive sign for hitters with the Kevin Roth’s updated forecast looking promising following the initial precautionary weather stoppage.
As reported by: the Pittsburgh Pirates via Twitter Eric Lauer has improved over his last seven starts
Right-handed batters have a .386 wOBA against Eric Lauer this season with a still very healthy .362 xwOBA. However, over his last seven starts, the wOBA has dropped by 40 points for RHBs, while LHBs have been held below .300 (.299). That doesn’t mean Dodger bats have no value tonight, but in a negative run environment, Justin Turner (164 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and a somehow still inexpensive Kike Hernandez (126 wRC+, .236 ISO) seem the standouts, along with Chris Taylor (103 wRC+, .206 ISO) at a reasonable price in the leadoff spot. The Dodgers sit in the middle of the board tonight at 4.44 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Eric Lauer, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor
An Angel in the outfield as a top value play
Although RHBs have a 24 point wOBA advantage on LHBs against Mike Leake this season with 10 of his 15 HRs surrendered, since last season, batters from either side are within eight points of a .320 wOBA. However, xwOBA moves LHBs up over 50 points to .378. Leake has been pitching better recently and regularly going deep into games, but did slip up last time out against these Angels (4 IP – 4 R), who at 4.7 implied runs are the only team above 4.5 runs among the three west coast games tonight. While Leake’s failure against the Angels was fueled by a .500 BABIP last time out, there are some interesting bats in this lineup beyond Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Kole Calhoun (77 wRC+, .141 ISO) may be one of the top value plays on the board by virtue of his lineup spot and cost (below $3K on either site) alone. Shohei Ohtani (187 wRC+, .320 ISO), though in a much smaller sample, has basically equaled Trout’s production against RHP. He may bat three spots lower (and only the manager knows why Pujols remains ahead of him), but costs much less than Trout.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Leake Low level of concern in Tuesday night's forecast
There are a couple of spots with a non-zero chance of delay on Tuesday night, but the overall concern level seems to be low. Players can read the full forecast on the Weather page and premium subscribers can get the latest updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Right-handed Colorado bat has seven career extra-base hits (four HRs) against Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin has the second highest strikeout rate (31.5%) and top SIERA (2.89) on the board with a .295 xwOBA that’s tied for third best. That has the Rockies all the way down to 5.59 runs at Coors tonight, just third best on a 15 game slate. By wOBA or xwOBA Corbin doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side less than 15 points above .300 since last year. Nolan Arenado (233 wRC+, .434 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Trevor Story (155 wRC+, .347 ISO) are always top infield bats against southpaws at home and that probably shouldn’t change much here. Charlie Blackmon (112 wRC+, .132 ISO) could be the under-owned bat, but as mentioned, Corbin has no platoon split and Blackmon has a 196 wRC+ over the last week. DJ LeMahieu (120 wRC+, .199 ISO) has seven extra-base hits (four HRs) against Corbin in 44 career PAs, though he’s certainly been a different pitcher this year than he was in the past.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Patrick Corbin It's Coors and a lineup that fares well against LHP, but this has been a quality lefty
Tyler Anderson has a 27.1 K% (13.2 SwStr%) and 2.10 ERA (3.29 SIERA) with a .244 xwOBA over the last month. His 4.1% Barrels/BBE is best on the entire board with an 85.9 mph aEV that’s second best among those with more than six starts. He’s pitched eight shutout innings in two straight starts and struck out at least eight in three straight. Yet, he’s almost impossible to roster against an offense with five guys above a 115 wRC+ and four guys above a .200 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Paul Goldschmidt (201 wRC+, .403 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (156 wRC+, .331 ISO) have been the most destructive and are both above a 150 wRC+ over the last week. The Diamondbacks are fourth on the board at 5.41 implied runs. Before his performance against the Giants last time out, Anderson had allowed at least three runs in no more than six innings in five straight home starts.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Tyler Anderson Six HRs, 13 walks and just five strikeouts over this pitcher's last four starts
Dylan Covey has been lit up in recent starts. Over his last 15 innings (four starts), he’s allowed 24 runs (22 earned) with six HRs, 13 walks and just five strikeouts! The Cardinals arrive in Chicago, adding a DH and are the last of seven teams above five implied runs tonight (5.13). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Covey for his career. Matt Carpenter (141 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup and has a 196 wRC+ over the last week. Tommy Pham (130 wRC+, .192 ISO) is not far behind. Each of the first five batters in the lineup are above a 115 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Dylan Covey