DFS Alerts
On Another Level
There are three aces on the mound tonight, but based on recent performance, there’s really just one. Trevor Bauer is in a different stratosphere than Gerrit Cole and Patrick Corbin right now. He has at least 8 strikeouts in seven straight starts, and double-digit K’s in six of his last nine. On top of the monstrous K numbers, he has also lowered his walk rate to 5.7% over the past month with just 26.6% hard hits allowed. What Kansas City takes away for strikeout upside, they give back with low power and a pitcher friendly ballpark. He’s expensive, but he should be expensive.
Cubs will attack Francisco Liriano with an entirely right-handed lineup with a potent middle
The Cubs currently have the top run line on the board this afternoon (5.56) against Francisco Liriano. This is probably not the lineup daily fantasy players were expecting, but it’s entirely right-handed against a pitcher who has surrendered a .359 wOBA (.377 xwOBA) to batters from that side since last season and Kevin’s forecast calls for “hot and humid, winds blowing gently out to left”. There are still some sweet spots here beginning in the leadoff spot with Albert Almora (117 wRC+, .123 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) for just $2.6K on FanDuel. The middle of the order, three though five, all have at least a 130 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year with an ISO above .200. Players probably already had high expectations from Javier Baez (134 wRC+, .258 ISO) and WIllson Contreras (157 wRC+, .257 ISO) here, but Addison Russell (130 wRC+, .207 ISO) in the cleanup spot is a bit of a surprise.
Other tagged players: Albert Almora, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Francisco Liriano
Home run prone fly ball pitchers generally don't fare well in Yankee Stadium
The Yankees are one of two early lineups above five implied runs (5.47) just a bit behind the Cubs, who top the board for both the early and full afternoon slate. While Julio Teheran has been formidable against RHBs since last season (.308 wOBA, 27.9 Hard%) and much less so against LHBs (.339 wOBA, .365 xwOBA, 37.2 Hard%), the ball is generally in the air either way, which makes this matchup at Yankee Stadium a problem. Teheran has allowed multiple HRs in a quarter (four) of his starts this season. Aaron Judge (174 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is your top bat on the early board here, but a couple of lower priced bats should fare well here too in Aaron Hicks (105 wRC+, .206 ISO), who has a 293 wRC+ over the last week, and Brett Gardner (114 wRC+, .153 ISO), who costs $3.6K or less out of the leadoff spot. These three make a nice top of the lineup mini-stack.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Julio Teheran Jose is your top early slate pitching choice
If playing day baseball on this holiday, there are a couple of slates to choose from, splitting the 1pm ET and 4pm ET games or including all of them. Pitching candidates for the three game early slate include Julio Teheran, C.C. Sabathia, Matt Andriese, Jose Urena, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Quintana. While Andriese (21.3 K%, 3.41 SIERA) would seem like an ideal low priced play in Miami (83 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB at home, 87 wRC+, 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP), but one never knows what the Rays have in mind (Yarbrough was pulled after three innings last night) and unless paying up for one of the later afternoon arms on a full afternoon slate, there aren’t any early pitchers who would necessitate such a complement. The Braves have a 116 wRC+ and 19.5 K% vs LHP, which hampers Sabathia. Teheran is a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, but is generally tough on RHBs (.308 wOBA, 27.9 Hard% since last season). Liriano is likely to walk the park and is facing the hottest offense in baseball (176 wRC+ last seven days). Joses Quintana and Urena are your top pitching choices on the early only slate. Quintana has not been good. He’s allowed seven runs over his last two starts, has not exceeded four strikeouts in four straight starts and hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last three. Yet, his 21.5 K% is best among these six pitchers and he costs less than $8K now against an offense with a 57 wRC+ and 2.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week. The Tigers have actually been tough on LHP though (109 wRC+, 19.4 K%). Jose Urena is your top value and perhaps the top overall pitcher on the early slate. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts with no more than five strikeouts in any of them, but had eight shutout innings two starts back as well. He misses enough bats (19.4 K%) with a SIERA under four (3.85). Mostly though, he’s in a nice spot (Rays 14.8 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 26.3 K% last seven days) in a great park and costs $7K on either site.
Other tagged players: Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran, CC Sabathia, Matt Andriese, Francisco Liriano The Top Stack Outside of Coors
If I had to pick my top offense to target outside of Coors Field this evening, the Astros would get that nod. Mike Minor has been an improved pitcher this season, but there are still some alarming signs, particularly against right-handed batters. His ground ball rate dips from well over 50% against LHBs to just 31% against RHBs, and his hard contact rate spikes to over 40%. That’s not a good combination against a team that is capable of smacking plenty of home runs, especially in the Texas summer heat. Fire up the power-upside RHBs for the Astros this evening as part of your GPP approach.
Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis
Humming Along at Home
The Rockies may not be able to hit on the road, but they can sure hum along at home, and they have plenty of hitters who are capable of doing damage against lefties. Arenado, Story, and Desmond all own wOBA marks over .400 and ISO marks over .300 against lefties this season, even when you include road games. They are the three priority bats for me tonight as part of any Colorado stack, and you can even include the likes of LeMahieu (who always goes under-owned compared to the others) or the left-handed hitting outfielders as more contrarian options. As usual, expect the Rockies to put up some runs against Suarez this evening.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond Your Sneaky 4th of July Stack
Most of the offensive attention tonight will likely be on the game at Coors Field, the Reds, and the Astros. Those are four relatively popular offenses that all carry implied team totals north of five runs this evening. The forgotten team with a high total will almost certainly be the Blue Jays, who have a total over five themselves and a good matchup against Corey Oswalt, who had an ERA over 5.30 at Triple-A this season and hasn’t done anything at the major league level yet. I love the leverage play for low GPP ownership here, and the top four hitters from this Toronto lineup are all in play. You can also consider Russell Martin as a punt option at catcher. Justin Smoak is my favorite option for power upside, while Curtis Granderson is the safest option with his solid .375 wOBA vs. RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin Plucking out a Cheap Arm to Fit the Big Bats
Make no mistake about it – there is going to be incentive out there to go cheap with a pitching spot this evening, as we have tons of offenses that are in fantastic spots. We have a game at Coors Field, we have Dylan Covey pitching in Cincinnati, and there are other teams with high implied totals as well. Enter Marcus Stroman. There is no denying that he has been pretty much awful this season, but a lot of that can be attributed to bad luck on the BABIP front along with his early-season injury. He has shown signs of life lately, and the ground ball rate remains elite. We don’t need a massive game in order for him to pay off a mega cheap salary, and I don’t hate the matchup against a hit-or-miss Mets offense. Stroman is a prime target in GPP formats this evening.
Storming Ahead as One of the Top Pitchers in Baseball
Trevor Bauer has simply been on another level this season, posting an ERA under 2.85 in every month and kicking up the strikeouts in June with 62 of them in 41 1/3 innings pitched for the month. He also draws a great matchup with a Royals offense that is nearing historically awful levels this season, with the only negative being that they do a decent job of making contact. That’s merely a minor concern for a guy who has become one of the best pitchers in the league, and with Bauer and Cole trending in opposite directions, Bauer is my top option this evening.
Can He Make It Two In A Row?
Daniel Palka is coming off a career night and has another really good matchup tonight against Romano, who has struggled with left-handed hitters this season. He has a .369 wOBA with a .185 ISO and a 39.6% hard-hit rate against lefties in 2018. While Palka’s wOBA is down under .300, he has a .458 CXwOBA and a .195 ISO against righties this season. When searching for value on this slate, you’ll notice there aren’t a lot of options, and that’s why I’m attacking this game.
High Floor With Some Upside
If you’re playing on FanDuel, it’s hard not to play Yonder Alonso at his current price tag. Oaks didn’t have a big strikeout rate in the minors and grades out more as a pitch-to-contact prospect. That’s not what you want to see when you’re facing an offense as good as the Indians. There’s a lot of RBI potential here for Alonso, and I really like his floor for cash games. He has a .192 ISO with a .356 wOBA and a .461 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and he also has an average exit velocity right at 90mph against righties.
Check The Batted Ball Profile
I don’t want to pay up at pitching tonight with all of these great hitting options up against some terrible pitchers on this slate. Fading Bauer and Cole worries me, but they both have downsides at their current price tags. And while Hill has struggled with right-handed hitters this season, this team doesn’t scare me very much against lefties. The projected starters have a .165 ISO with a .350 wOBA against lefties this season. Three of those with wOBAs over .345 are left-handed hitters, and Hill has been great against lefties this season. On top of all of that, the Pirates don’t profile well against curveballs, as since the start of 2016, not one starter outside of Meadows has an ISO over .200 against that pitch type.
Start of Tuesday's BAL-PHI game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Phillies has not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Zach Eflin not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game’s risk is increasing with storms stalled over the area and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out.
As reported by: the Philadelphia Phillies via Twitter
Hot west coast lineup faces pitcher with platoon issues
The Dodgers routed Nick Kingham at home last night and Ivan Nova hasn’t been that bad. He has a 14.4 K-BB% this season and a .240 xwOBA over the last month, but he has significant issues with LHBs (.350 wOBA, .382 xwOBA since last season). Due to the negative run environment and modest 4.64 implied run line, Dodger bats could fly under the radar here and Nova could certainly pitch competently tonight, but players should probably look to get some exposure to Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Max Muncy (170 wRC+, .323 ISO). Among the first six Dodgers in tonight’s batting order, only Cody Bellinger (124 wRC+, .250 ISO) is below a 150 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Ivan Nova Antonio Senzatela has impressed at AAA, but San Francisco run line is rising
Antonio Senzatela gets his first start of the season after some relief work and an impressive 20.0 K-BB% in eight AAA starts this season. Over 20 starts and 152 major league innings total, RHBs (.332 wOBA) have actually hit him a bit better than LHBs (.322 wOBA) with xwOBA widening the gap to 27 points despite keeping the ball on the ground a bit more than half the time against all batters. The park and an implied run line that has risen to 6.16 now makes this a spot that heavily favors San Francisco bats despite just a few who are potent against RHP over the last calendar year. Alen Hanson (99 wRC+, .226 ISO) offers the most value in the leadoff spot for $4K or less. Brandon Belt (165 wRC+, .279 ISO) is by far the top overall bat here. Nobody else in the lineup has both a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .185 against RHP over the last calendar year. Buster Posey (101 wRC+, .089 ISO) and Brandon Crawford (136 wRC+, .185 ISO) are still strong options at otherwise difficult positions.
Other tagged players: Alen Hanson, Antonio Senzatela, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford