DFS Alerts
Not For The Faint of Heart
This is by no means a safe play, but this could end up being the top PT/$ play on the entire slate. Harvey’s number on the year aren’t that great (5.16 xFIP, 15.9 K%, 9.2% BB%), but recently he’s played well. In his last two starts he has put up 16.2 and 20.7 DK points respectively. He is playing in a ballpark thats great for K’s and he is facing a projected MIL lineup that won’t have a single bat with under a 20% K rate. The upside here is huge considering his price. Even if he ends up giving up 2 or 3 bombs he could still end up making value. Know that any lineup you put him in could be dead in he water, but he hasn’t put up less than 5 points in a game since mid-May and at his price tag that absolutely won’t kill you. Just roster him and pray.
Bartolo Colon has a 40.0% Hard-Soft% (51.6% Hard%) through five June starts
Colon has gone through stretches this season where he’s seemed like a competent starting pitcher at the big league level, but in recent weeks, the BABIP regression monster has begun to rear its ugly head, as his June ERA has ballooned to 7.77, fueled by a .371 BABIP that is much closer to the .331 mark he posted over the course of the 2017 season. Not only has Colon recorded just 14 strikeouts in those five starts, but his 43.2% fly ball rate and 43.9% hard-hit percentage should continue to become a larger problem in the rising Texas temperatures over the upcoming summer months, making it highly likely he will serve up some long balls to Chicago White Sox batters at Globe Life Park this evening. The White Sox are certainly a volatile offense against right-handed pitching, as evidenced by Saturday’s starting lineup’s massive 25.5% strikeout rate to righties over the last two seasons, but those concerns are largely mitigated by Colon’s strike-heavy approach on the mound and his minuscule 14.9% strikeout rate on the year, making a full White Sox stack extremely viable in large-field tournament formats given tonight’s ideal hitting conditions. Even with a higher-than-desirable 34.4% strikeout rate, Yoan Moncada remains the clear-cut top target in this Chicago lineup, as his skillset versus right-handed pitching is evident once examining his 0.519 xwOBA, 0.211 ISO, and 41.6% hard-hit percentage against righties to this point in his young career. If aiming to surround Moncada in lineups with some of his teammates, look no further than Jose Abreu (0.222 ISO, 0.418 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Avisail Garcia (0.173 ISO, 0.427 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and Matt Davidson (39.4% HH%, 0.225 ISO, 0.493 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), all of whom sacrifice the platoon advantage in a matchup with Colon but still exhibit the necessary power and contact abilities to take advantage of Colon’s inefficiencies on the mound at this stage in his career.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson, Bartolo Colon
Not Letting a Bum Toe Keep Him Down
The Mariners are in a groove right now, riding a stretch of five consecutive wins. I wouldn’t expect that train to slow down against a scuffling arm in Jason Hammel, who owns an xFIP and SIERA right at 5.00 and a hard hit rate allowed of 46.6% this year. Yikes. His wOBA results show reverse splits this year, but his ground ball rate is 44% against RHBs and 31% against LHBs, and his hard contact rate is worse against lefties, so a lot of the current wOBA splits appear to be luck-based. I would expect him to be splits-neutral or slightly normal by the end of the year. Kyle Seager has been hitting the ball well of late and returned from a minor injury last night, so he checks in as my favorite point per dollar play here. Of course, you can always go for the upside of Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger, as well.
Take Advantage of the Cheap Price Tag
If you’re searching for value, Avisail Garcia is back and swinging a hot bat right now, and his DFS price tag is still far too cheap on all the sites. Throw in the nice weather in the Arlington heat and a matchup against Bartolo Colon, and I love the way the top of this order lines up for DFS purposes this evening, as you can throw Jose Abreu in the mix and get yourself a nice high upside mini-stack. Matt Davidson is also in play as a boom or bust GPP power bat.
A Great Matchup for This Young Hitter
He may have had a good start to the season, but the wheels have started to fall off for Bartolo Colon of late. He has a 7.77 ERA in the month of June with just 14 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings. His massive fly ball ways are going to be a bigger problem in the Texas summer heat, and the White Sox have plenty of boom or bust power in their lineup. I expect some long balls off the now 45-year old Colon this evening. My favorite play here is Yoan Moncada. Even with his massive strikeout rate and inconsistency, the skill set is clearly there, and I love the way he matches up against Bartolo Colon. The Texas hurler isn’t going to fool Moncada, and I expect him to be able to put the bat on the ball this evening. He still leads the White Sox in ISO against RHP this season, and there’s a ton of upside here. Moncada is my favorite hitter on tonight’s slate by a good margin, and he has our highest PlateIQ score as well, so it’s good to know that I’m not in this boat by myself.
The Best Value Arm on an Ugly Slate
It’s pretty clear that Weaver simply isn’t the pitcher that a lot of us expected him to be heading into this season. However, he looked as sharp as he has all season in his last start against the Brewers, where he struck out nine batters on his way to a much needed victory. His strikeouts have started to trend in the right direction, and the DFS price tag is dirt cheap; that’s the primary appeal here. He does struggle at times with left-handed batters, and that’s a worry against a Braves team that sends a lot of good left-handed bats to the dish. Still, I’m not convinced that he’s any worse than the other arms I mentioned above, and Weaver is cheaper than all of them. If there are question marks with every mid-range or value pitcher tonight, why not go with the cheapest of the muddled mess in the middle? I understand that this isn’t a compelling argument, but it’s what we are dealing with on this slate.
The Top Arm by a Country Mile
His skills stand out on their own accord, but he’s even further ahead of the pack tonight when you consider that the other “aces” include a hit or miss Kenta Maeda and…. nobody else. Sale is a priority for me tonight even in a matchup against the Yankees. He has the ability to perform in any matchup with his mid-two ERA, SIERA, and xFIP to go along with an elite 35.6% strikeout rate and low hard contact rate. I understand that there may be some hesitation with all the power that the Yankees bring to the table against a left-handed pitcher, but it’s not like these guys are going to be squaring the ball up against Sale every time they swing. Sale pitched six innings of one run ball in his first start against the Yankees this year, and he has been untouchable at times of late — especially in his last outing where he racked up 13 strikeouts in seven shutout innings against the White Sox. Don’t overthink this one. If there were obvious high-end pivots, it might make sense to fade Sale in this matchup, but that’s simply not the case.
Cold Streak
Tommy Pham has impressively gone 0-25 dating back to June 20th and his price is starting to reflect his massive slump. Pham showed some signs of life last night as he drew a couple of walks and should hopefully find himself back to hitting second in the order against Atlanta lefty Max Fried. Pham has a strong offensive skill-set versus LHP (127 wRC+; .198 ISO) and he’s one of the non-Arlington hitters I’m looking to target despite his recent cold streak.
Totally Redeem Himself
Beltre impressively put up an 0-fer in Friday night’s game against the White Sox despite the Rangers putting up 11 runs. Similar fire works are expected tonight and Beltre should have a chance to redeem himself in Arlington where both teams have implied run totals hovering north of five runs. Despite his age, Beltre still has a plus skill-set against LHP and he has mashed southpaws throughout the course of his career to the tune of a 130 wRC+ and .218 ISO.
Ugly SP2
I have a general rule of thumb to follow when forced to decide between two ugly SP2 options: choose the cheapest one. The cheapest option just so happens to be Shelby Miller who will face the Giants at Chase Field. There are a few positives here: the Giants implied run total is trending downwards as it sits at 4.1 at the time of this writing after opening at 4.6. San Francisco has also been significantly worse in terms of strikeout rate this season as they own the eighth highest strikeout rate in the league versus RHP (24.1%). Playing Miller takes a little leap of faith but he’s cheaper than the alternative in Luke Weaver and faces a less imposing offense.
Other tagged players: Luke Weaver Numbers Too Good For This Price
Looking at Lucchesi’s numbers on the year you would expect him to be way higher priced. On the year, Lucchesi owns a 3.84 xFIP, 25.1% K rate, and is close to average in every other category. He is pitching in a pitchers ball park and the Pirates have the 3rd lowest implied team total on the entire slate. when considering the price, the K rate, and what Vegas seems to think, Luchessi should be priced in the 9k range. There is safety here and upside. Just play Luchessi and move on.
A Wildcard Pitcher
Look, we don’t have a whole lot of info for Miller since coming back from injury, but from what we do know there is sum upside at his price. So far, in limited innings, Miller has had a +25% K rate in AA, AAA, and in the majors. On the Giant’s side of the ball, they strike out and walk at an average rate, but there aren’t many great bats in the lineup and with the humidor, ARI is a decent pitchers park. This is strictly an upside and pricing play, but on this slate you aren’t going to find a pitcher in a better spot at this price.
Guy on a Huge Hot Streak
There aren’t many (if any) players with a hotter bat than Chirinos. In his last 3 games he has 3 HR’s and hasn’t had under 16 DK points. He’s playing over in Texas where the heat and humidity should greatly aid HR’s and on the year he owns a .244 ISO vs. LHP. He gets a matchup vs. Rodon, who may have been a good pitcher in the past, but has struggled greatly this year. He owns a 5.65 xFIP and is a huge fly ball pitcher vs. righties this year. All signs point toward a Chriinos HR in the matchup and fading him could be a disaster.
A Star Player at a Discount
What we have here is a clear mispricing on a player that just hasn’t played great since coming back from injury. Currently on the year vs. RHP, Justin Turner owns a .184 ISO and .310 wOBA, while in 2017 he owned .164 ISO and .370 wOBA. These numbers are way to good to have him priced at just 3.7k over on DK. Add in that Marquez is just an average pitcher with a 4.38 xFIP and is average in virtually every other category and we have a don’t overthink it spot. Just play Turner and move on.
Arlington Headliner
Saturday’s main slate cash game approach seems straight forward – pitch Sale and stack Arlington. Moncada headlines the Arlington options at a weak second base position with a strong offensive skill-set against right-handed pitching (111 wRC+) and some power upside (.205 ISO).